Marine reserves stabilize fish populations and fisheries yields in disturbed coral reef systems

Marine reserves promote cycles in fish populations on ecological and evolutionary time scales

Marine reserves are considered essential for sustainable fisheries, although their effectiveness compared to traditional fisheries management is debated. The effect of marine reserves is mostly studied on short ecological time scales, whereas fisheries-induced evolution is a well-established consequence of harvesting. Using a size-structured population model for an exploited fish population of which individuals spend their early life stages in a nursery habitat, we show that marine reserves will shift the mode of population regulation from low size-selective survival late in life to low, early-life survival due to strong resource competition. This shift promotes the occurrence of rapid ecological cycles driven by density-dependent recruitment as well as much slower evolutionary cycles driven by selection for the optimal body to leave the nursery grounds, especially with larger marine reserves. The evolutionary changes increase harvesting yields in terms of total biomass but cause disproportionately large decreases in yields of larger, adult fish. Our findings highlight the importance of carefully considering the size of marine reserves and the individual life history of fish when managing eco-evolutionary marine systems to ensure both population persistence as well as stable fisheries yields.

No-take marine protected areas enhance the benefits of kelp-forest restoration for fish but not fisheries

Kelp habitat restoration is gaining traction as a management action to support recovery in areas affected by severe disturbances, thereby ensuring the sustainability of ecosystem services. Knowing when and where to restore is a major question. Using a single-species population model, we consider how restoring inside marine protected areas (MPAs) might benefit coastal fish populations and fisheries. We found that MPAs can greatly enhance the population benefits of restoration but at a small cost to fishery yields. Generally, restoring inside MPAs had a better overall gains-loss outcome, especially if the system is under high fishing pressure or severe habitat loss. However, restoring outside became preferable when predatory fish indirectly benefit kelp habitats. In either case, successful restoration actions may be difficult to detect in time-series data due to complex transient dynamics. We provide context for setting management goals and social expectations for the ecosystem service implications of restoration in MPAs.

Long-Term Conservation Effects of Protected Areas in Stochastic Population Dynamics

Terrestrial and marine protected areas are essential tools in mitigating anthropogenic impacts and promoting population persistence and resource sustainability. Adequately implemented protected areas (PAs) aim to promote conservation by increasing population size and reducing its variability. To resolve how these effects depend on PA features, I develop and analyze new models of stochastic processes that encompass the fluctuations generated by demographic or environmental stochasticity in PAs management. The stochastic model is built upon individual processes. In the model, density-independent mortality, migration between PAs and non-PAs, organism preference for PAs, and size characterize the features of the PA. The effect of PAs size is also examined. The long-term conservation effects are quantified using the coefficient of variation (CV) of population size in PAs, where a lower CV indicates higher robustness in stochastic variations. The results from this study demonstrate that sufficiently reduced density-independent mortality in PAs and high site preference for PAs and immigration rate into PAs are likely to decrease the CV. However, different types of stochasticity induce rather different consequences: under demographic stochasticity, the CV is always reduced because PAs increase the population size therein, but an increased population size by PAs does not always decrease the CV under environmental stochasticity. The deterministic dynamics of the model are investigated, facilitating effective management decisions.

Resolving the Rules of Robustness and Resilience in Biology Across Scales

Why do some biological systems and communities persist while others fail? Robustness, a system's stability, and resilience, the ability to return to a stable state, are key concepts that span multiple disciplines within and outside the biological sciences. Discovering and applying common rules that govern the robustness and resilience of biological systems is a critical step toward creating solutions for species survival in the face of climate change, as well as the for the ever-increasing need for food, health, and energy for human populations. We propose that network theory provides a framework for universal scalable mathematical models to describe robustness and resilience and the relationship between them, and hypothesize that resilience at lower organization levels contribute to robust systems. Insightful models of biological systems can be generated by quantifying the mechanisms of redundancy, diversity, and connectivity of networks, from biochemical processes to ecosystems. These models provide pathways towards understanding how evolvability can both contribute to and result from robustness and resilience under dynamic conditions. We now have an abundance of data from model and non-model systems and the technological and computational advances for studying complex systems. Several conceptual and policy advances will allow the research community to elucidate the rules of robustness and resilience. Conceptually, a common language and data structure that can be applied across levels of biological organization needs to be developed. Policy advances such as cross-disciplinary funding mechanisms, access to affordable computational capacity, and the integration of network theory and computer science within the standard biological science curriculum will provide the needed research environments. This new understanding of biological systems will allow us to derive ever more useful forecasts of biological behaviors and revolutionize the engineering of biological systems that can survive changing environments or disease, navigate the deepest oceans, or sustain life throughout the solar system.

Direct and indirect effects of heatwaves on a coral reef fishery

Marine heatwaves are increasing in frequency and intensity, and indirectly impacting coral reef fisheries through bleaching-induced degradation of live coral habitats. Marine heatwaves also affect fish metabolism and catchability, but such direct effects of elevated temperatures on reef fisheries are largely unknown. We investigated direct and indirect effects of the devastating 2016 marine heatwave on the largest reef fishery operating along the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). We used a combination of fishery-independent underwater census data on coral trout biomass (Plectropomus and Variola spp.) and catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) data from the commercial fishery to evaluate changes in the fishery resulting from the 2016 heatwave. The heatwave caused widespread, yet locally patchy, declines in coral cover, but we observed little effect of local coral loss on coral trout biomass. Instead, a pattern of decreasing biomass at northern sites and stable or increasing biomass at southern sites suggested a direct response of populations to the heatwave. Analysis of the fishery-independent data and CPUE found that in-water coral trout biomass estimates were positively related to CPUE, and that coral trout catch rates increased with warmer temperatures. Temperature effects on catch rates were consistent with the thermal affinities of the multiple species contributing to this fishery. Scaling-up the effect of temperature on coral trout catch rates across the region suggests that GBR-wide catches were 18% higher for a given level of effort during the heatwave year relative to catch rates under the mean temperatures in the preceding 6 years. These results highlight a potentially large effect of heatwaves on catch rates of reef fishes, independent of changes in reef habitats, that can add substantial uncertainty to estimates of stock trends inferred from fishery-dependent (CPUE) data. Overestimation of CPUE could initiate declines in reef fisheries that are currently fully exploited, and threaten sustainable management of reef stocks.

Management implications of long transients in ecological systems

The underlying biological processes that govern many ecological systems can create very long periods of transient dynamics. It is often difficult or impossible to distinguish this transient behaviour from similar dynamics that would persist indefinitely. In some cases, a shift from the transient to the long-term, stable dynamics may occur in the absence of any exogenous forces. Recognizing the possibility that the state of an ecosystem may be less stable than it appears is crucial to the long-term success of management strategies in systems with long transient periods. Here we demonstrate the importance of considering the potential of transient system behaviour for management actions across a range of ecosystem organizational scales and natural system types. Developing mechanistic models that capture essential system dynamics will be crucial for promoting system resilience and avoiding system collapses.

Changing role of coral reef marine reserves in a warming climate

Coral reef ecosystems are among the first to fundamentally change in structure due to climate change, which leads to questioning of whether decades of knowledge regarding reef management is still applicable. Here we assess ecological responses to no-take marine reserves over two decades, spanning a major climate-driven coral bleaching event. Pre-bleaching reserve responses were consistent with a large literature, with higher coral cover, more species of fish, and greater fish biomass, particularly of upper trophic levels. However, in the 16 years following coral mortality, reserve effects were absent for the reef benthos, and greatly diminished for fish species richness. Positive fish biomass effects persisted, but the groups of fish benefiting from marine reserves profoundly changed, with low trophic level herbivores dominating the responses. These findings highlight that while marine reserves still have important roles on coral reefs in the face of climate change, the species and functional groups they benefit will be substantially altered.

It is unclear whether rapid climate change will alter the effectiveness of marine reserves. Here Graham et al. use a 20-year time-series from the Seychelles to show that marine reserves may not prevent climate-driven shifts in community composition, and that ecological responses to reserves are substantially altered.