Demographic responses of nearly extirpated endangered mountain caribou to recovery actions in Central British Columbia

Effectiveness of population-based recovery actions for threatened southern mountain caribou

Habitat loss is affecting many species, including the southern mountain caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) population in western North America. Over the last half century, this threatened caribou population's range and abundance have dramatically contracted. An integrated population model was used to analyze 51 years (1973-2023) of demographic data from 40 southern mountain caribou subpopulations to assess the effectiveness of population-based recovery actions at increasing population growth. Reducing potential limiting factors on threatened caribou populations offered a rare opportunity to identify the causes of decline and assess methods of recovery. Southern mountain caribou abundance declined by 51% between 1991 and 2023, and 37% of subpopulations were functionally extirpated. Wolf reduction was the only recovery action that consistently increased population growth when applied in isolation, and combinations of wolf reductions with maternal penning or supplemental feeding provided rapid growth but were applied to only four subpopulations. As of 2023, recovery actions have increased the abundance of southern mountain caribou by 52%, compared to a simulation with no interventions. When predation pressure was reduced, rapid population growth was observed, even under contemporary climate change and high levels of habitat loss. Unless predation is reduced, caribou subpopulations will continue to be extirpated well before habitat conservation and restoration can become effective.

Eat or be eaten: Implications of potential exploitative competition between wolves and humans across predator-savvy and predator-naive deer populations

Recolonization of predators to their former ranges is becoming increasingly prevalent. Such recolonization places predators among their prey once again; the latter having lived without predation (from such predators) for a considerable time. This renewed coexistence creates opportunities to explore predation ecology at both fundamental and applied levels. We used a paired experimental design to investigate white-tailed deer risk allocation in the Upper and Lower Peninsulas (UP and LP) in Michigan, USA. Wolves are functionally absent in the LP, while deer in the UP coexist with a re-established wolf population. We treated 15 sites each in UP and LP with wolf olfactory cues and observed deer vigilance, activity, and visitation rates at the interface of habitat covariates using remote cameras. Such a paired design across wolf versus no-wolf areas allowed us to examine indirect predation effects while accounting for confounding parameters such as the presence of other predators and human activity. While wolf urine had no effect across most metrics in both UP and LP, we observed differences in deer activity in areas with versus without wolves. Sites treated with wolf urine in the UP showed a reduction in crepuscular deer activity, compared to control/novel-scent treated sites. Furthermore, we observed a strong positive effect of vegetation cover on deer vigilance in these sites. This indicates that simulated predator cues likely affect deer vigilance more acutely in denser habitats, which presumably facilitates predation success. Such responses were however absent among deer in the LP that are presumably naïve toward wolf predation. Where human and non-human predators hunt shared prey, such as in Michigan, predators may constrain human hunting success by increasing deer vigilance. Hunters may avoid such exploitative competition by choosing hunting/bait sites located in open areas. Our results pertaining to fundamental predation ecology have strong applied implications that can promote human-predator coexistence.

Genomics of founders for conservation breeding: the Jasper caribou case

Conservation breeding programs are increasingly used as recovery actions for wild animals; bringing founders into captivity to rear captive populations for future reintroduction into the wild. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature recommends that founders should come from genetically close populations and should have sufficient genetic diversity to avoid mating among relatives. Genomic data are highly informative for evaluating founders due to their high resolution and ability to capture adaptive divergence, yet, their application in that context remains limited. Woodland caribou are federally listed as a Species at Risk in Canada, with several populations facing extirpation, such as those in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta and British Columbia (BC). To prevent local extirpation, Jasper National Park (JNP) is proposing a conservation breeding program. We examined single nucleotide polymorphisms for 144 caribou from 11 populations encompassing a 200,0002 km area surrounding JNP to provide information useful for identifying appropriate founders for this program. We found that this area likely hosts a caribou metapopulation historically characterized by high levels of gene flow, which indicates that multiple sources of founders would be appropriate for initiating a breeding program. However, population structure and adaptive divergence analyses indicate that JNP caribou are closest to populations in the BC Columbia range, which also have suitable genetic diversity for conservation breeding. We suggest that collaboration among jurisdictions would be beneficial to implement the program to promote recovery of JNP caribou and possibly other caribou populations in the surrounding area, which is strategically at the periphery of the distribution of this endangered species.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10592-023-01540-3.

A before-after-control-impact study of wildlife fencing along a highway in the Canadian Rocky Mountains

Wildlife exclusion fencing has become a standard component of highway mitigation systems designed to reduce collisions with large mammals. Past work on the effectiveness of exclusion fencing has relied heavily on control–impact (i.e., space-for-time substitutions) and before–after study designs. These designs limit inference and may confound the effectiveness of mitigation with co-occurring process that also changes the rate of collisions. We used a replicated (n = 2 sites monitored for over 1000 km years combined) before-after-control-impact study design to assess fencing effectiveness along the Trans-Canada Highway in the Rocky Mountains of Canada. We found that collisions declined for common ungulates species (elk, mule deer, and white-tailed deer) by up to 96% but not for large carnivores. The weak response of carnivores is likely due to the combination of fence intrusions and low sample sizes. We calculated realized fencing effectiveness by applying the same change in collision rates observed at control (unfenced) sites as the expected change for adjacent fenced sections. Compared with the apparent fencing effectiveness (i.e., the difference in WVCs rates before and after fencing was installed), the realized estimates of fencing effectiveness declined by 6% at one site and increased by 10% at another site. When factoring in the cost of ungulate collisions to society, fencing provided a net economic gain within 1 year of construction. Over a 10-year period, fencing would provide a net economic gain of > $500,000 per km in reduced collisions. Our study highlights the benefits of long-term monitoring of road mitigation projects and provides evidence of fencing effectiveness for reducing wildlife–vehicle collisions involving large mammals.

Statistical population reconstruction of moose (Alces alces) in northeastern Minnesota using integrated population models

Given recent and abrupt declines in the abundance of moose (Alces alces) throughout parts of Minnesota and elsewhere in North America, accurately estimating statewide population trends and demographic parameters is a high priority for their continued management and conservation. Statistical population reconstruction using integrated population models provides a flexible framework for combining information from multiple studies to produce robust estimates of population abundance, recruitment, and survival. We used this framework to combine aerial survey data and survival data from telemetry studies to recreate trends and demographics of moose in northeastern Minnesota, USA, from 2005 to 2020. Statistical population reconstruction confirmed the sharp decline in abundance from an estimated 7,841 (90% CI = 6,702–8,933) in 2009 to 3,386 (90% CI = 2,681–4,243) animals in 2013, but also indicated that abundance has remained relatively stable since then, except for a slight decline to 3,163 (90% CI = 2,403–3,718) in 2020. Subsequent stochastic projection of the population from 2021 to 2030 suggests that this modest decline will continue for the next 10 years. Both annual adult survival and per-capita recruitment (number of calves that survived to 1 year per adult female alive during the previous year) decreased substantially in years 2005 and 2019, from 0.902 (SE = 0.043) to 0.689 (SE = 0.061) and from 0.386 (SE = 0.030) to 0.303 (SE = 0.051), respectively. Sensitivity analysis revealed that moose abundance was more sensitive to fluctuations in adult survival than recruitment; thus, we conclude that the steep decline in 2013 was driven primarily by decreasing adult survival. Our analysis demonstrates the potential utility of using statistical population reconstruction to monitor moose population trends and to identify population declines more quickly. Future studies should focus on providing better estimates of per-capita recruitment, using pregnancy rates and calf survival, which can then be incorporated into reconstruction models to help improve estimates of population change through time.

Indigenous-led conservation: Pathways to recovery for the nearly extirpated Klinse-Za mountain caribou

Indigenous Peoples around the northern hemisphere have long relied on caribou for subsistence and for ceremonial and community purposes. Unfortunately, despite recovery efforts by federal and provincial agencies, caribou are currently in decline in many areas across Canada. In response to recent and dramatic declines of mountain caribou populations within their traditional territory, West Moberly First Nations and Saulteau First Nations (collectively, the "Nations") came together to create a new vision for caribou recovery on the lands they have long stewarded and shared. The Nations focused on the Klinse-Za subpopulation, which had once encompassed so many caribou that West Moberly Elders remarked that they were "like bugs on the landscape." The Klinse-Za caribou declined from ~250 in the 1990s to only 38 in 2013, rendering Indigenous harvest of caribou nonviable and infringing on treaty rights to a subsistence livelihood. In collaboration with many groups and governments, this Indigenous-led conservation initiative paired short-term population recovery actions, predator reduction and maternal penning, with long-term habitat protection in an effort to create a self-sustaining caribou population. Here, we review these recovery actions and the promising evidence that the abundance of Klinse-Za caribou has more than doubled from 38 animals in 2013 to 101 in 2021, representing rapid population growth in response to recovery actions. With looming extirpation averted, the Nations focused efforts on securing a landmark conservation agreement in 2020 that protects caribou habitat over a 7986-km² area. The Agreement provides habitat protection for >85% of the Klinse-Za subpopulation (up from only 1.8% protected pre-conservation agreement) and affords moderate protection for neighboring caribou subpopulations (29%-47% of subpopulation areas, up from 0%-20%). This Indigenous-led conservation initiative has set both the Indigenous and Canadian governments on the path to recover the Klinse-Za subpopulation and reinstate a culturally meaningful caribou hunt. This effort highlights how Indigenous governance and leadership can be the catalyst needed to establish meaningful conservation actions, enhance endangered species recovery, and honor cultural connections to now imperiled wildlife.