Biodiversity protection against anthropogenic climate change: Conservation prioritization of Castanea sativa in the South Caucasus based on genetic and ecological metrics

Assessment of suitable habitat of Semen Armeniacae Amarum. in China under different climatic conditions by Internal Transcribed Spacer 2 and Maxent model

Semen Armeniacae Amarum is a Chinese medicine. The Chinese Pharmacopoeia stipulates that the dried ripe seeds of these four plants (Prunus armeniaca L. var. ansu Maxim., Prunus sibirica L., Prunus mandshurica (Maxim.) Koehne, and Prunus armeniaca L.) can all be used as Semen Armeniacae Amarum. Amygdalin is widely recognized as a key quality marker for standardizing Semen Armeniacae Amarum. It exhibits notable antitussive and antiasthmatic effects, and is believed to relieve cough by modulating the activity of the respiratory center. Its diverse pharmacological properties position it as a potential lead compound in drug discovery and the development of novel therapeutics. Climate change has a significant impact on distribution of the aforementioned species and the accumulation of their bioactive components. In this study, the distribution site information of all four plant species was collected through field surveys and online data surveys. Using the Internal Transcribed Spacer 2 (ITS2), the attribution of bitter almonds in each species from different geographical region was identified and the amygdalin content was measured. The maximum entropy model was coupled with the stepwise regression algorithm to evaluate the potential impact of future climate on the quality of amygdalin. The results showed that the 26 samples collected from different producing areas were all identified as PS. Under various Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), the projected future distribution ranges of Prunus sibirica L. (PS) and Prunus armeniaca L. (PA) are predicted to contract, whereas the range of Prunus mandshurica (Maxim.) Koehne (PK) is projected to expand slightly. The distribution range of Prunus armeniaca L. var. ansu Maxim. (PM) is expected to either expand or contract, depending on specific scenarios and timeframes. Specifically, an expansion is projected under RCP2.6 in both the 2050s and 2070s, and under RCP8.5 in the 2050s. Conversely, a contraction is projected under RCP4.5 in the 2050s and 2070s, and under RCP8.5 in the 2070s. From the perspective of secondary metabolism, amygdalin content exhibits a strong positive correlation with temperature and precipitation. These findings provide valuable guidance for optimizing traditional medicine supply chains and formulating targeted conservation strategies for medicinal resources.

Forest genomics in the Caucasus through the lens of its dominant tree species - Fagus orientalis

The last glacial period is known to have greatly influenced the demographic history of temperate forest trees, with important range contractions and post-glacial expansions that led to the formation of multiple genetic lineages and secondary contact zones in the Northern Hemisphere. These dynamics have been extensively studied for European and North American species but are still poorly understood in other temperate regions of rich biodiversity such as the Caucasus. Our study helps filling that gap by deciphering the genomic landscapes of F. orientalis across the South Caucasus. The use of genome-wide data confirmed a past demographic history strongly influenced by the Last Glacial Maximum, revealing two disjunct glacial refugia in the Colchis and Hyrcanian regions. The resulting patterns of genetic diversity, load and differentiation are not always concordant across the region, with genetic load pinpointing the location of the glacial refugia more efficiently than genetic diversity alone. The Hyrcanian forests show depleted genetic diversity and substantial isolation, even if long-distance gene flow is still present with the main centre of diversity in the Greater Caucasus. Finally, we characterize a strong heterogeneity of genetic diversity and differentiation along the species chromosomes, with noticeably a first chromosome showing low diversity and weak differentiation.

Impact of climate change on the future distribution of three Ferulago species in Iran using the MaxEnt model

The decline of habitats supporting medicinal plants is a consequence of climate change and human activities. In the Middle East, Ferulago angulata, Ferulago carduchorum, and Ferulago phialocarpa are widely recognized for their culinary, medicinal, and economic value. Therefore, this study models these Ferulago species in Iran using the MaxEnt model under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 2050 and 2070. The objective was to identify the most important bioclimatic (n = 6), edaphic (n = 4), and topographic (n = 3) variables influencing their distribution and predict changes under various climate scenarios. Findings reveal slope percentage as the most significant variable for F. angulata and F. carduchorum, while solar radiation was the primary variable for F. phialocarpa. MaxEnt modeling demonstrated good to excellent performance, as indicated by all the area under the curve values exceeding 0.85. Projections suggest negative area changes for F. angulata and F. carduchorum (i.e., predictions under RCP4.5 for 2050 and 2070 indicate -34.0% and -37.8% for F. phialocarpa, and -0.3% and -6.2% for F. carduchorum; additionally, predictions under RCP 8.5 for 2050 and 2070 show -39.0% and -52.2% for F. phialocarpa, and -1.33% and -9.8% for F. carduchorum), while for F. phialocarpa, a potential habitat increase (i.e., predictions under RCP4.5 for 2050 and 2070 are 23.4% and 11.2%, and under RCP 8.5 for 2050 and 2070 are 64.4% and 42.1%) is anticipated. These insights guide adaptive management strategies, emphasizing conservation and sustainable use amid global climate change. Special attention should be paid to F. angulata and F. carduchorum due to anticipated habitat loss. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:1046-1059. © 2024 SETAC.

The influence of climate change on the future distribution of two Thymus species in Iran: MaxEnt model-based prediction

Within a few decades, the species habitat was reshaped at an alarming rate followed by climate change, leading to mass extinction, especially for sensitive species. Species distribution models (SDMs), which estimate both present and future species distribution, have been extensively developed to investigate the impacts of climate change on species distribution and assess habitat suitability. In the West Asia essential oils of T. daenensis and T. kotschyanus include high amounts of thymol and carvacrol and are commonly used as herbal tea, spice, flavoring agents and medicinal plants. Therefore, this study aimed to model these Thymus species in Iran using the MaxEnt model under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. The findings revealed that the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10) was the most significant variable affecting the distribution of T. daenensis. In the case of T. kotschyanus, slope percentage was the primary influencing factor. The MaxEnt modeling also demonstrated excellent performance, as indicated by all the Area Under the Curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.9. Moreover, based on the projections, the two mentioned species are expected to undergo negative area changes in the coming years. These results can serve as a valuable achievement for developing adaptive management strategies aimed at enhancing protection and sustainable utilization in the context of global climate change.

Habitat potential modelling and the effect of climate change on the current and future distribution of three Thymus species in Iran using MaxEnt

Over the course of a few decades, climate change has caused a rapid and alarming reshaping of species habitats, resulting in mass extinction, particularly among sensitive species. In order to investigate the effects of climate change on species distribution and assess habitat suitability, researchers have developed species distribution models (SDMs) that estimate present and future species distribution. In West Asia, thyme species such as T. fedtschenkoi, T. pubescens, and T. transcaucasicus are rich in thymol and carvacrol, and are commonly used as herbal tea, spice, flavoring agents, and medicinal plants. This study aims to model the distribution of these Thymus species in Iran using the MaxEnt model under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. The objective is to identify the crucial bioclimatic (n = 5), edaphic (n = 1), and topographic (n = 3) variables that influence their distribution and predict how their distribution might change under various climate scenarios. The findings reveal that the most significant variable affecting T. fedtschenkoi and T. pubescens is altitude, while soil organic carbon content is the primary factor influencing the distribution of T. transcaucasicus. The MaxEnt modeling demonstrates excellent performance, as indicated by all the area under the curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.9. Based on the projections, it is expected that these three thyme species will experience negative area changes in the coming years. These results can serve as a valuable tool for developing adaptive management strategies aimed at enhancing protection and sustainable utilization in the context of global climate change. Special attention should be given to conserving T. fedtschenkoi, T. pubescens, and T. transcaucasicus due to their significant habitat loss in the future.

Evolutionary history of Castanea sativa in the Caucasus driven by Middle and Late Pleistocene paleoenvironmental changes

Due to global climate cooling and aridification since the Paleogene, members of the Neogene flora were extirpated from the Northern Hemisphere or were confined to a few refugial areas. For some species, the final reduction/extinction came in the Pleistocene, but some others have survived climatic transformations up to the present. This has occurred in Castanea sativa, a species of high commercial value in Europe and a significant component of the Caucasian forests' biodiversity. In contrast to the European range, neither the historical biogeography nor the population genetic structure of the species in its isolated Caucasian range has been clarified. Here, based on a survey of 21 natural populations from the Caucasus and a single one from Europe, we provide a likely biogeographic reconstruction and genetic diversity details. By applying Bayesian inference, species distribution modelling and fossil pollen data, we estimated (i) the time of the Caucasian-European divergence during the Middle Pleistocene, (ii) the time of divergence among Caucasian lineages and (iii) outlined the glacial refugia for species. The climate changes related to the Early-Middle Pleistocene Transition are proposed as the major drivers of the intraspecific divergence and European-Caucasian disjunction for the species, while the impact of the last glacial cycle was of marginal importance.