Predicting resilience of ecosystem functioning from co-varying species' responses to environmental change

Asynchrony in terrestrial insect abundance corresponds with species traits

Asynchrony in population abundance can buffer the effects of environmental change leading to greater community and ecosystem stability. Both environmental (abiotic) drivers and species functional (biotic) traits can influence population dynamics leading to asynchrony. However, empirical evidence linking dissimilarity in species traits to abundance asynchrony is limited, especially for understudied taxa such as insects. To fill this knowledge gap, we explored the relationship between pairwise species trait dissimilarity and asynchrony in interannual abundance change between pairs of species for 422 moth, butterfly, and bumblebee species in Great Britain. We also explored patterns differentiating traits that we assumed to capture 'sensitivity to environmental variables' (such as body mass), and traits that may reflect 'diversity in exposure' to environmental conditions and lead to niche partitioning (for example, habitat uses, and intra-annual emergence periods). As expected, species trait dissimilarity calculated overall and for many individual traits representing response and exposure was positively correlated with asynchrony in all three insect groups. We found that 'exposure' traits, especially those relating to the phenology of species, had the strongest relationship with abundance asynchrony from all tested traits. Positive relationships were not simply due to shared evolutionary history leading to similar life-history strategies: detected effects remained significant for most traits after accounting for phylogenetic relationships within models. Our results provide empirical support that dissimilarity in traits linked to species exposure and sensitivity to the environment could be important for temporal dissimilarity in insect abundance. Hence, we suggest that general trait diversity, but especially diversity in 'exposure' traits, could play a significant role in the resilience of insect communities to short-term environmental perturbations through driving asynchrony between species abundances.

Mechanisms underpinning community stability along a latitudinal gradient: Insights from a niche-based approach

At large scales, the mechanisms underpinning stability in natural communities may vary in importance due to changes in species composition, mean abundance, and species richness. Here we link species characteristics (niche positions) and community characteristics (richness and abundance) to evaluate the importance of stability mechanisms in 156 butterfly communities monitored across three European countries and spanning five bioclimatic regions. We construct niche-based hierarchical structural Bayesian models to explain first differences in abundance, population stability, and species richness between the countries, and then explore how these factors impact community stability both directly and indirectly (via synchrony and population stability). Species richness was partially explained by the position of a site relative to the niches of the species pool, and species near the centre of their niche had higher average population stability. The differences in mean abundance, population stability, and species richness then influenced how much variation in community stability they explained across the countries. We found, using variance partitioning, that community stability in Finnish communities was most influenced by community abundance, whereas this aspect was unimportant in Spain with species synchrony explaining most variation; the UK was somewhat intermediate with both factors explaining variation. Across all countries, the diversity-stability relationship was indirect with species richness reducing synchrony which increased community stability, with no direct effects of species richness. Our results suggest that in natural communities, biogeographical variation observed in key drivers of stability, such as population abundance and species richness, leads to community stability being limited by different factors and that this can partially be explained due to the niche characteristics of the European butterfly assemblage.

Abundance trends for river macroinvertebrates vary across taxa, trophic group and river typology

There is mounting evidence that terrestrial arthropods are declining rapidly in many areas of the world. It is unclear whether freshwater invertebrates, which are key providers of ecosystem services, are also declining. We addressed this question by analysing a long-term dataset of macroinvertebrate abundance collected from 2002 to 2019 across 5009 sampling sites in English rivers. Patterns varied markedly across taxonomic groups. Within trophic groups we detected increases in the abundance of carnivores by 19% and herbivores by 14.8%, while we estimated decomposers have declined by 21.7% in abundance since 2002. We also found heterogeneity in trends across rivers belonging to different typologies based on geological dominance and catchment altitude, with organic lowland rivers having generally higher rates of increase in abundance across taxa and trophic groups, with siliceous lowland rivers having the most declines. Our results reveal a complex picture of change in freshwater macroinvertebrate abundance between taxonomic groups, trophic levels and river typologies. Our analysis helps with identifying priority regions for action on potential environmental stressors where we discover macroinvertebrate abundance declines.

Stability of crop pollinator occurrence is influenced by bee community composition

Bees provide a vital ecosystem service to agriculture by contributing to the pollination of many leading global crops. Human wellbeing depends not only on the quantity of agricultural yields, but also on the stability and resilience of crop production. Yet a broad understanding of how the diversity and composition of pollinator communities may influence crop pollination service has previously been hindered by a scarcity of standardized data. We used outputs from Bayesian occupancy detection models to examine patterns in the inter-annual occupancy dynamics of the bee pollinator communities of four contrasting crops (apples, field bean, oilseed and strawberries) in Great Britain between 1985 and 2015. We compared how the composition and species richness of different crop pollinator communities may affect the stability of crop pollinator occurrence. Across the four crops, we found that the inter-annual occupancy dynamics of the associated pollinator communities tended to be more similar in smaller communities with closely related pollinator species. Our results indicate that crop pollinator communities composed of a small number of closely related bee species show greater variance in mean occupancy compared to crops with more diverse pollinator communities. Lower variance in the occurrence of crop pollinating bee species may lead to more stable crop pollination services. Finally, whilst our results initially indicated some redundancy within most crop pollinator communities, with no, or little, increase in the variance of overall mean occupancy when species were initially removed, this was followed by a rapid acceleration in the variance of crop pollinator occurrence as each crop's bee pollinator community was increasingly depreciated. High inter-annual variations in pollination services have negative implications for crop production and food security. High bee diversity could ensure more stable and resilient crop pollination services, yet current agri-environment schemes predominantly benefit a limited suite of common species. Management may therefore benefit from targeting a wider diversity of solitary species in order to safeguard crop pollination service in the face of increasing environmental change.