Mixed‐severity wildfire and habitat of an old‐forest obligate

Ecosystem Conditions That Influence the Viability of an Old-Forest Species with Limited Vagility: The Red Tree Vole

We evaluated ecosystem conditions known to influence the viability of a strictly arboreal species (the red tree vole, Arborimus longicaudus) endemic and historically distributed in the forests across the Coast Range, Cascades, and Klamath Mountains ecoregions in the Western United States of America. We found widespread reductions in ecosystem conditions needed to support the long-term viability of the red tree vole. This was particularly evident in the Coast Range where the weighted watershed index (WWI) was 26% of its historical value, and the current probability of maintaining viability departed the most from historical viability probabilities in ecoregions that were evaluated. In contrast, in the Cascades and Klamath Mountains, the WWI was 42% and 52% of their respective historical values, and the current probabilities of maintaining viability departed less from historical conditions than in the Coast Range. Habitat loss from timber harvest represented the most immediate threat in the Coast Range, while habitat loss from wildfires represented the most risk to the red tree vole in the Cascades and Klamath Mountains. Reducing the risks to the viability of the red tree vole will depend largely on the implementation of conservation practices designed to protect remaining habitat and restore degraded ecosystems in the Coast Range. However, the risk of large, high-severity wildfires will require the protection and increased resilience of existing ecosystems. Our results indicate that considerable adaptation to climate change will be required to conserve the red tree vole in the long term. Conservation may be accomplished by revising land and resource management plans to include standards and guidelines relevant to red tree vole management and persistence, the identification of priority areas for conservation and restoration, and in assessing how management alternatives influence ecosystem resiliency and red tree vole viability.

Conspecific and congeneric interactions shape increasing rates of breeding dispersal of northern spotted owls

Breeding dispersal, the movement from one breeding territory to another, is rare for philopatric species that evolved within relatively stable environments, such as the old-growth coniferous forests of the Pacific Northwest. Although dispersal is not inherently maladaptive, the consequences of increased dispersal on population dynamics in populations whose historical dispersal rates are low could be significant, particularly for a declining species. We examined rates and possible causes of breeding dispersal based on a sample of 4,118 northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) monitored in seven study areas over 28 yr, 1990-2017, in Oregon and Washington, USA. Using a multistate mark-resight analysis, we investigated the potential impacts of an emergent congeneric competitor (barred owl Strix varia) and forest alteration (extrinsic factors), and social and individual conditions (intrinsic factors) on 408 successive and 1,372 nonsuccessive dispersal events between years. The annual probability of breeding dispersal increased for individual owls that had also dispersed in the previous year and decreased for owls on territories with historically high levels of reproduction. Intrinsic factors including pair status, prior reproductive success, and experience at a site, were also associated with breeding dispersal movements. The percent of monitored owls dispersing each year increased from ˜7% early in the study to ˜25% at the end of the study, which coincided with a rapid increase in numbers of invasive and competitively dominant barred owls. We suggest that the results presented here can inform spotted owl conservation efforts as we identify factors contributing to changing rates of demographic parameters including site fidelity and breeding dispersal. Our study further shows that increasing rates of breeding dispersal associated with population declines contribute to population instability and vulnerability of northern spotted owls to extinction, and the prognosis is unlikely to change unless active management interventions are undertaken.

Resilience of terrestrial and aquatic fauna to historical and future wildfire regimes in western North America

Wildfires in many western North American forests are becoming more frequent, larger, and severe, with changed seasonal patterns. In response, coniferous forest ecosystems will transition toward dominance by fire-adapted hardwoods, shrubs, meadows, and grasslands, which may benefit some faunal communities, but not others. We describe factors that limit and promote faunal resilience to shifting wildfire regimes for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. We highlight the potential value of interspersed nonforest patches to terrestrial wildlife. Similarly, we review watershed thresholds and factors that control the resilience of aquatic ecosystems to wildfire, mediated by thermal changes and chemical, debris, and sediment loadings. We present a 2-dimensional life history framework to describe temporal and spatial life history traits that species use to resist wildfire effects or to recover after wildfire disturbance at a metapopulation scale. The role of fire refuge is explored for metapopulations of species. In aquatic systems, recovery of assemblages postfire may be faster for smaller fires where unburned tributary basins or instream structures provide refuge from debris and sediment flows. We envision that more-frequent, lower-severity fires will favor opportunistic species and that less-frequent high-severity fires will favor better competitors. Along the spatial dimension, we hypothesize that fire regimes that are predictable and generate burned patches in close proximity to refuge will favor species that move to refuges and later recolonize, whereas fire regimes that tend to generate less-severely burned patches may favor species that shelter in place. Looking beyond the trees to forest fauna, we consider mitigation options to enhance resilience and buy time for species facing a no-analog future.