Regional processes are stronger determinants of rocky intertidal community dynamics than local biotic interactions

Regime shifts in rocky intertidal communities associated with a marine heatwave and disease outbreak

Long-term, large-scale experimental studies provide critical information about how global change influences communities. When environmental changes are severe, they can trigger abrupt transitions from one community type to another leading to a regime shift. From 2014 to 2016, rocky intertidal habitats in the northeast Pacific Ocean experienced extreme temperatures during a multi-year marine heatwave (MHW) and sharp population declines of the keystone predator Pisaster ochraceus due to sea star wasting disease (SSWD). Here we measured the community structure before, during and after the MHW onset and SSWD outbreak in a 15-year succession experiment conducted in a rocky intertidal meta-ecosystem spanning 13 sites on four capes in Oregon and northern California, United States. Kelp abundance declined during the MHW due to extreme temperatures, while gooseneck barnacle and mussel abundances increased due to reduced predation pressure after the loss of Pisaster from SSWD. Using several methods, we detected regime shifts from substrate- or algae-dominated to invertebrate-dominated alternative states at two capes. After water temperatures cooled and Pisaster population densities recovered, community structure differed from pre-disturbance conditions, suggesting low resilience. Consequently, thermal stress and predator loss can result in regime shifts that fundamentally alter community structure even after restoration of baseline conditions.

Resistance of rocky intertidal communities to oceanic climate fluctuations

A powerful way to predict how ecological communities will respond to future climate change is to test how they have responded to the climate of the past. We used climate oscillations including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and variation in upwelling, air temperature, and sea temperatures to test the sensitivity of nearshore rocky intertidal communities to climate variability. Prior research shows that multiple ecological processes of key taxa (growth, recruitment, and physiology) were sensitive to environmental variation during this time frame. We also investigated the effect of the concurrent sea star wasting disease outbreak in 2013-2014. We surveyed nearly 150 taxa from 11 rocky intertidal sites in Oregon and northern California annually for up to 14-years (2006-2020) to test if community structure (i.e., the abundance of functional groups) and diversity were sensitive to past environmental variation. We found little to no evidence that these communities were sensitive to annual variation in any of the environmental measures, and that each metric was associated with < 8.6% of yearly variation in community structure. Only the years elapsed since the outbreak of sea star wasting disease had a substantial effect on community structure, but in the mid-zone only where spatially dominant mussels are a main prey of the keystone predator sea star, Pisaster ochraceus. We conclude that the established sensitivity of multiple ecological processes to annual fluctuations in climate has not yet scaled up to influence community structure. Hence, the rocky intertidal system along this coastline appears resistant to the range of oceanic climate fluctuations that occurred during the study. However, given ongoing intensification of climate change and increasing frequencies of extreme events, future responses to climate change seem likely.

Top-down versus bottom-up: Grazing and upwelling regime alter patterns of primary productivity in a warm-temperate system

Community structure is driven by the interaction of physical processes and biological interactions that can vary across environmental gradients and the strength of top-down control is expected to vary along gradients of primary productivity. In coastal marine systems, upwelling drives regional resource availability through the bottom-up effect of nutrient subsidies. This alters rates of primary production and is expected to alter algae-herbivore interactions in rocky intertidal habitats. Despite the potential for upwelling to alter these interactions, the interaction of upwelling and grazing pressure is poorly understood, particularly for warm-temperate systems. Using in situ herbivore exclusion experiments replicated across multiple upwelling regimes, we investigated the effects of both grazing pressure, upwelling, and their interactions on the sessile invertebrate community and biomass of macroalgal communities in a warm-temperate system. The sessile invertebrate cover showed indirect effects of grazing, being consistently low where algal biomass was high at upwelling sites and at nonupwelling sites when grazers were excluded. The macroalgal cover was greater at upwelling sites when grazers were excluded and there was a strong effect of succession throughout the experimental period. Grazing effects were greater at upwelling sites, particularly during winter months. There was a nonsignificant trend toward greater grazing pressure on early than later successional stages. Our results show that the positive bottom-up effects of nutrient supply on algal production do not overwhelm top-down control in this warm-temperate system but do have knock-on consequences for invertebrates that compete with macroalgae for space. We speculate that global increases in air and sea surface temperatures in warm-temperate systems will promote top-down effects in upwelling regions by increasing herbivore metabolic and growth rates.

Macroecology of rocky intertidal benthic communities along the southwestern Atlantic: Patterns of spatial variation and associations with natural and anthropogenic variables

Assessing spatial variability in biodiversity and its relationships with potential drivers is necessary for understanding and predicting changes in ecosystems. Here, we evaluated spatial patterns in sessile macrobenthic communities in rocky intertidal habitats along the southwestern Atlantic (SE Brazil), spanning over 500 km of coastline. We applied a rapid-survey approach focusing on the main space occupiers and habitat-forming taxa. We partitioned community variance into spatial scales ranging from metres to hundreds of kilometres and assessed whether community patterns were associated with variation in shore topography, nearshore ocean, and human influence. The communities from the mid-midlittoral level exhibited equivalent variation (31-35%) at the scales of quadrats (metres), sites (kilometres), and sub-regions (tens of kilometres). For the communities from the low-midlittoral and infralittoral fringe levels, most variability occurred at the scales of quadrats and sites (30-42%), followed by sub-regions (22%). Wave fetch, sea surface temperature (SST), and shore inclination were the variables that best explained community structure at the mid-midlittoral. At the low-midlittoral and infralittoral fringe, the most influential variables were related to oceanic forcing (SST, total suspended solids, particulate organic carbon, chlorophyll-a concentration) and human influence. Univariate analyses also revealed strong associations between the abundance of the main components of the communities and the predictor variables evaluated. Our results suggest that urbanised estuarine bays and coastal upwelling regimes have a strong influence on adjacent benthic communities, driving macroecological patterns in the study area. This study advances the knowledge in macroecology and biogeography of rocky shores in an understudied coastline and globally and provides valuable insights for future assessments of ecological changes resulting from unfolding human impacts.

Local and large-scale spatial variation in a marine predator-prey interaction in the southwestern Atlantic

Predator-prey interactions are a key ecological process which can be modified by environmental conditions over a range of spatial scales. Through two complementary short-term experiments, we assessed how local and large-scale environmental conditions affect a subtropical intertidal predator-prey interaction. At a local scale, we evaluated the effects of the degree of exposure to wave action and prey density on consumption rate and interaction strength using a whelk-barnacle system. Consumption rate decreased with wave exposure at experimentally reduced prey density but did not change at ambient density. Such an interactive effect occurred due to shifts in the whelk's feeding behaviour, likely linked to encounter rate and stress amelioration underpinned by prey density. Per capita interaction strength of the whelk on the barnacle weakened along the wave exposure gradient, but to a greater degree at reduced compared to ambient prey density. This confirms that environmental harshness can decrease the importance of predators, but the magnitude of change may be modified by density-dependent effects. A large-scale experiment did not reveal spatial patterns in the whelk-barnacle interaction, nor relationships to chlorophyll-a concentration or the minor change in sea temperature across the study area. Patterns in the size of consumed barnacles along the chlorophyll-a gradient suggest changes in food choice related to prey quality and size. We conclude that disentangling the effects of wave exposure and prey density revealed important potential mechanisms driving species locally. Large-scale variation in the whelk-barnacle interaction appeared to be linked to species' traits shaped by the environmental context.

Causal assumptions and causal inference in ecological experiments

Causal inferences from experimental data are often justified based on treatment randomization. However, inferring causality from data also requires complementary causal assumptions, which have been formalized by scholars of causality but not widely discussed in ecology. While ecologists have recognized challenges to inferring causal relationships in experiments and developed solutions, they lack a general framework to identify and address them. We review four assumptions required to infer causality from experiments and provide design-based and statistically based solutions for when these assumptions are violated. We conclude that there is no clear demarcation between experimental and non-experimental designs. This insight can help ecologists design better experiments and remove barriers between experimental and observational scholarship in ecology.

Quantifying the dynamics of rocky intertidal sessile communities along the Pacific coast of Japan: implications for ecological resilience

Long-term patterns in trajectories of natural communities provide insights into ecological resilience, but their assessment requires long-term census data. We analyzed 16-year census data for intertidal communities from 30 rocky shores along Japan’s Pacific coast to assign community change to four possible trajectories (stable, reversible, abrupt, or linear) representing different aspects of ecological resilience, and to estimate multiple metrics of temporal invariability (species richness, species composition, and community abundance). We examined (1) how the prevalence of the four trajectories differs among regions, (2) how the features (model coefficients) of each trajectory vary among regions, and (3) how the temporal invariabilities differ among trajectories and regions. We found that the stable trajectory was the most common. Its features differed among regions, with a faster recovery to steady-state equilibrium in low-latitude regions. Furthermore, trajectories and temporal invariabilities both varied among regions, seemingly in association with the strength of ocean current fluctuations. Thus, the relationship between community temporal invariability and trajectory may be weak or absent, at least at the regional scale.

Influence of environmental variables over multiple spatial scales on the population structure of a key marine invertebrate

Quantifying scale-dependent patterns and linking ecological to environmental variation is required to understand mechanisms regulating biodiversity. We conducted a large-scale survey in rocky shores along the SE Brazilian coast to examine spatial variability in body size and density of an intertidal barnacle (Chthamalus bisinuatus) and its relationships with benthic and oceanographic predictors. Both the size and density of barnacles showed most variation at the smallest spatial scales. On average, barnacle body size was larger on shores located in areas characterised by higher chlorophyll levels, colder waters, low wave action and low influence of freshwater. Barnacles were more abundant at wave-exposed shores. We identified critical scales of spatial variation of an important species and linked population patterns to essential environmental predictors. Our results show that populations of this barnacle are coupled to scale-dependent oceanographic variation. This study offers insights into the mechanisms regulating coastal populations along a little studied coastline.