Predicting the stability of multitrophic communities in a variable world

Asynchrony in coral community structure contributes to reef-scale community stability

Many aspects of global ecosystem degradation are well known, but the ecological implications of variation in these effects over scales of kilometers and years have not been widely considered. On tropical coral reefs, kilometer-scale variation in environmental conditions promotes a spatial mosaic of coral communities in which spatial insurance effects could enhance community stability. To evaluate whether these effects are important on coral reefs, we explored variation over 2006-2019 in coral community structure and environmental conditions in Moorea, French Polynesia. We studied coral community structure at a single site with fringing, back reef, and fore reef habitats, and used this system to explore associations among community asynchrony, asynchrony of environmental conditions, and community stability. Coral community structure varied asynchronously among habitats, and variation among habitats in the daily range in seawater temperature suggested it could be a factor contributing to the variation in coral community structure. Wave forced seawater flow connected the habitats and facilitated larval exchange among them, but this effect differed in strength among years, and accentuated periodic connectivity among habitats at 1-7 year intervals. At this site, connected habitats harboring taxonomically similar coral assemblages and exhibiting asynchronous population dynamics can provide insurance against extirpation, and may promote community stability. If these effects apply at larger spatial scale, then among-habitat community asynchrony is likely to play an important role in determining reef-wide coral community resilience.

Habitat attributes mediate herbivory and influence community development in algal metacommunities

Understanding the drivers and impacts of spatiotemporal variation in species abundance on community trajectories is key to understanding the factors contributing to ecosystem resilience. Temporal variation in species trajectories across patches can provide compensation for species loss and can influence successional patterns. However, little is known about the underlying mechanisms that lead to patterns of species or spatial compensation and how those patterns may be mediated by consumer-resource relationships. Here we describe an experiment testing whether habitat attributes (e.g., structural complexity and spatial heterogeneity) mediate the effects of herbivory on tropical marine macroalgal communities by reducing accessibility and detectability, respectively, leading to variable trajectories among algal species at community (within patch) and metacommunity (i.e., among patch) scales. Reduced accessibility (greater habitat complexity) decreased the effects of herbivory (i.e., depressed consumption rate, increased algal species richness), and both accessibility and detectability (spatial heterogeneity) influenced algal community structure. Moreover, decreased accessibility at the community scale and a mosaic of accessibility at the metacommunity scale led to variation in community assembly. We suggest that habitat attributes can be important influencers of consumer-resource interactions on coral reefs, which in turn can increase species diversity, promote species succession, and enhance stability in algal metacommunities.

Stabilizing microbial communities by looped mass transfer

The population ecology of microbial communities is still poorly understood and their notorious instability makes them impossible to control. Much of the instability is caused by the stochastic assembly of microorganisms, especially in highly diverse microbiomes where structural and hence functional changes occur rapidly due to the short generation time of their members. Usually, to maintain organismic proportions in communities, their niches are deterministically reinforced, but stochasticity strongly counteracts this. Based on metacommunity theory, a looped mass transfer was developed that uses the rescue effect to stabilize communities. This study fills a long-standing gap and enables continuous and proportionally equal growth of community members using an unprecedented operational design that addresses an acute need in the healthcare and biotechnology industries.

Building and changing a microbiome at will and maintaining it over hundreds of generations has so far proven challenging. Despite best efforts, complex microbiomes appear to be susceptible to large stochastic fluctuations. Current capabilities to assemble and control stable complex microbiomes are limited. Here, we propose a looped mass transfer design that stabilizes microbiomes over long periods of time. Five local microbiomes were continuously grown in parallel for over 114 generations and connected by a loop to a regional pool. Mass transfer rates were altered and microbiome dynamics were monitored using quantitative high-throughput flow cytometry and taxonomic sequencing of whole communities and sorted subcommunities. Increased mass transfer rates reduced local and temporal variation in microbiome assembly, did not affect functions, and overcame stochasticity, with all microbiomes exhibiting high constancy and increasing resistance. Mass transfer synchronized the structures of the five local microbiomes and nestedness of certain cell types was eminent. Mass transfer increased cell number and thus decreased net growth rates μ′. Subsets of cells that did not show net growth μ′SCx  were rescued by the regional pool R and thus remained part of the microbiome. The loop in mass transfer ensured the survival of cells that would otherwise go extinct, even if they did not grow in all local microbiomes or grew more slowly than the actual dilution rate D would allow. The rescue effect, known from metacommunity theory, was the main stabilizing mechanism leading to synchrony and survival of subcommunities, despite differences in cell physiological properties, including growth rates.

Geographic variation in responses of kelp forest communities of the California Current to recent climatic changes

The changing global climate is having profound effects on coastal marine ecosystems around the world. Structure, functioning, and resilience, however, can vary geographically, depending on species composition, local oceanographic forcing, and other pressures from human activities and use. Understanding ecological responses to environmental change and predicting changes in the structure and functioning of whole ecosystems require large-scale, long-term studies, yet most studies trade spatial extent for temporal duration. We address this shortfall by integrating multiple long-term kelp forest monitoring datasets to evaluate biogeographic patterns and rates of change of key functional groups (FG) along the west coast of North America. Analysis of data from 469 sites spanning Alaska, USA, to Baja California, Mexico, and 373 species (assigned to 18 FG) reveals regional variation in responses to both long-term (2006-2016) change and a recent marine heatwave (2014-2016) associated with two atmospheric and oceanographic anomalies, the "Blob" and extreme El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Canopy-forming kelps appeared most sensitive to warming throughout their range. Other FGs varied in their responses among trophic levels, ecoregions, and in their sensitivity to heatwaves. Changes in community structure were most evident within the southern and northern California ecoregions, while communities in the center of the range were more resilient. We report a poleward shift in abundance of some key FGs. These results reveal major, ongoing region-wide changes in productive coastal marine ecosystems in response to large-scale climate variability, and the potential loss of foundation species. In particular, our results suggest that coastal communities that are dependent on kelp forests will be more impacted in the southern portion of the California Current region, highlighting the urgency of implementing adaptive strategies to sustain livelihoods and ensure food security. The results also highlight the value of multiregional integration and coordination of monitoring programs for improving our understanding of marine ecosystems, with the goal of informing policy and resource management in the future.