Early snowmelt and warmer, drier summers shrink postflowering transition times in subalpine wildflowers

A Long-Lived Alpine Perennial Advances Flowering under Warmer Conditions but Not Enough to Maintain Reproductive Success

AbstractAssessing whether phenological shifts in response to climate change confer a fitness advantage requires investigating the relationships among phenology, fitness, and environmental drivers of selection. Despite widely documented advancements in phenology with warming climate, we lack empirical estimates of how selection on phenology varies in response to continuous climate drivers or how phenological shifts in response to warming conditions affect fitness. We leverage an unusual long-term dataset with repeated, individual measurements of phenology and reproduction in a long-lived alpine plant. We analyze phenotypic plasticity in flowering phenology in relation to two climate drivers, snowmelt timing and growing degree days (GDDs). Plants flower earlier with increased GDDs and earlier snowmelt, and directional selection also favors earlier flowering under these conditions. However, reproduction still declines with warming and early snowmelt, even when flowering is early. Furthermore, the steepness of this reproductive decline increases dramatically with warming conditions, resulting in very little fruit production regardless of flowering time once GDDs exceed approximately 225 degree days or snowmelt occurs before May 15. Even though advancing phenology confers a fitness advantage relative to stasis, these shifts are insufficient to maintain reproduction under warming, highlighting limits to the potential benefits of phenological plasticity under climate change.

Effects of drought on grassland phenology depend on functional types

Shifts in flowering phenology are important indicators of climate change. However, the role of precipitation in driving phenology is far less understood compared with other environmental cues, such as temperature. We use a precipitation reduction gradient to test the direction and magnitude of effects on reproductive phenology and reproduction across 11 plant species in a temperate grassland, a moisture-limited ecosystem. Our experiment was conducted in a single, relatively wet year. We examine the effects of precipitation for species, functional types, and the community. Our results provide evidence that reduced precipitation shifts phenology, alters flower and fruit production, and that the magnitude and direction of the responses depend on functional type and species. For example, early-blooming species shift toward earlier flowering, whereas later-blooming species shift toward later flowering. Because of opposing species-level shifts, there is no overall shift in community-level phenology. This study provides experimental evidence that changes in rainfall can drive phenological shifts. Our results additionally highlight the importance of understanding how plant functional types govern responses to changing climate conditions, which is relevant for forecasting phenology and community-level changes. Specifically, the implications of divergent phenological shifts between early- and late-flowering species include resource scarcity for pollinators and seed dispersers and new temporal windows for invasion.

Flowering time advances since the 1970s in a sagebrush steppe community: Implications for management and restoration

Climate change is widely known to affect plant phenology, but little is known about how these impacts manifest in the widespread sagebrush ecosystem of the Western United States, which supports a number of wildlife species of concern. Shifts in plant phenology can trigger consequences for the plants themselves as well as the communities of consumers that depend upon them. We assembled historical observations of first-flowering dates for 51 species collected in the 1970s and 1980s in a montane sagebrush community in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and compared these to contemporary phenological observations targeting the same species and locations (2016-2019). We also assembled regional climate data (average spring temperature, day of spring snowmelt, and growing degree days) and tested the relationship between first-flowering time and these variables for each species. We observed the largest change in phenology in early-spring flowers, which, as a group, bloomed on average 17 days earlier, and as much as 36 days earlier, in the contemporary data set. Mid-summer flowers bloomed on average 10 days earlier, nonnative species 15 days earlier, and berry-producing shrubs 5 days earlier, while late summer flowering plants did not shift. The greatest correlates of early-spring and mid-summer flowering were average spring temperature and day of snowmelt, which was 21 days earlier, on average, in 2016-2019 relative to the 1973-1978 observations. The shifts in flowering phenology that we observed could indicate developing asynchronies or novel synchronies of these plant resources and wildlife species of conservation concern, including Greater Sage-grouse, whose nesting success is tied to availability of spring forbs; grizzly bears, which rely heavily on berries for their fall diet; and pollinators. This underscores the importance of maintaining a diverse portfolio of native plants in terms of species composition, genetics, phenological responsiveness to climatic cues, and ecological importance to key wildlife and pollinator species. Redundancy within ecological niches may also be important considering that species roles in the community may shift as climate change affects them differently. These considerations are particularly relevant to restoration and habitat-enhancement projects in sagebrush communities across western North America.

High-Resolution Snow-Covered Area Mapping in Forested Mountain Ecosystems Using PlanetScope Imagery

Improving high-resolution (meter-scale) mapping of snow-covered areas in complex and forested terrains is critical to understanding the responses of species and water systems to climate change. Commercial high-resolution imagery from Planet Labs, Inc. (Planet, San Francisco, CA, USA) can be used in environmental science, as it has both high spatial (0.7–3.0 m) and temporal (1–2 day) resolution. Deriving snow-covered areas from Planet imagery using traditional radiometric techniques have limitations due to the lack of a shortwave infrared band that is needed to fully exploit the difference in reflectance to discriminate between snow and clouds. However, recent work demonstrated that snow cover area (SCA) can be successfully mapped using only the PlanetScope 4-band (Red, Green, Blue and NIR) reflectance products and a machine learning (ML) approach based on convolutional neural networks (CNN). To evaluate how additional features improve the existing model performance, we: (1) build on previous work to augment a CNN model with additional input data including vegetation metrics (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and DEM-derived metrics (elevation, slope and aspect) to improve SCA mapping in forested and open terrain, (2) evaluate the model performance at two geographically diverse sites (Gunnison, Colorado, USA and Engadin, Switzerland), and (3) evaluate the model performance over different land-cover types. The best augmented model used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) along with visible (red, green, and blue) and NIR bands, with an F-score of 0.89 (Gunnison) and 0.93 (Engadin) and was found to be 4% and 2% better than when using canopy height- and terrain-derived measures at Gunnison, respectively. The NDVI-based model improves not only upon the original band-only model’s ability to detect snow in forests, but also across other various land-cover types (gaps and canopy edges). We examined the model’s performance in forested areas using three forest canopy quantification metrics and found that augmented models can better identify snow in canopy edges and open areas but still underpredict snow cover under forest canopies. While the new features improve model performance over band-only options, the models still have challenges identifying the snow under trees in dense forests, with performance varying as a function of the geographic area. The improved high-resolution snow maps in forested environments can support studies involving climate change effects on mountain ecosystems and evaluations of hydrological impacts in snow-dominated river basins.

A Mechanistic Framework for Understanding the Effects of Climate Change on the Link Between Flowering and Fruiting Phenology

Phenological shifts are a widely studied consequence of climate change. Little is known, however, about certain critical phenological events, nor about mechanistic links between shifts in different life-history stages of the same organism. Among angiosperms, flowering times have been observed to advance with climate change, but, whether fruiting times shift as a direct consequence of shifting flowering times, or respond differently or not at all to climate change, is poorly understood. Yet, shifts in fruiting could alter species interactions, including by disrupting seed dispersal mutualisms. In the absence of long-term data on fruiting phenology, but given extensive data on flowering, we argue that an understanding of whether flowering and fruiting are tightly linked or respond independently to environmental change can significantly advance our understanding of how fruiting phenologies will respond to warming climates. Through a case study of biotically and abiotically dispersed plants, we present evidence for a potential functional link between the timing of flowering and fruiting. We then propose general mechanisms for how flowering and fruiting life history stages could be functionally linked or independently driven by external factors, and we use our case study species and phenological responses to distinguish among proposed mechanisms in a real-world framework. Finally, we identify research directions that could elucidate which of these mechanisms drive the timing between subsequent life stages. Understanding how fruiting phenology is altered by climate change is essential for all plant species but is particularly critical to sustaining the large numbers of plant species that rely on animal-mediated dispersal, as well as the animals that rely on fruit for sustenance.

Snow melt timing acts independently and in conjunction with temperature accumulation to drive subalpine plant phenology

Organisms use environmental cues to align their phenology-the timing of life events-with sets of abiotic and biotic conditions that favor the successful completion of their life cycle. Climate change has altered the environmental cues organisms use to track climate, leading to shifts in phenology with the potential to affect a variety of ecological processes. Understanding the drivers of phenological shifts is critical to predicting future responses, but disentangling the effects of temperature from precipitation on phenology is often challenging because they tend to covary. We addressed this knowledge gap in a high-elevation environment where phenological shifts are associated with both the timing of spring snow melt and temperature. We factorially crossed early snow melt and passive warming treatments to (1) disentangle the effects of snow melt timing and warming on the phenology of flowering and fruiting and reproductive success in three subalpine plant species (Delphinium nuttallianum, Valeriana edulis, and Potentilla pulcherrima); and (2) assess whether snow melt acts via temperature accumulation or some other aspect of the environment (e.g., soil moisture) to affect phenological events. Both the timing and duration of flowering and fruiting responded to the climate treatments, but the effect of snow melt timing and warming varied among species and phenological stages. The combined effects of the treatments on phenology were always additive, and the snow melt treatment often affected phenology even when the warming treatment did not. Despite marked responses of phenology to climate manipulations, the species showed little change in reproductive success, with only one species producing fewer seeds in response to warming (Delphinium, -56%). We also found that snow melt timing can act both through temperature accumulation and as a distinct cue for phenology, and these effects are not mutually exclusive. Our results show that one environmental cue, here snow melt timing, may act through multiple mechanisms to shift phenology.

Consequences of phenological shifts and a compressed breeding period in Magellanic penguins

Phenological shifts may ameliorate negative effects of climate change or create carryover effects and mismatches that decrease fitness. Identifying how phenological shifts affect performance is critical for understanding how individuals and populations will respond to climate change, but requires long-term, longitudinal data. Using 34 yr of data from the Magellanic penguin (Spheniscus magellanicus) colony at Punta Tombo, Argentina, we examined the consequences of the delayed onset of breeding (i.e., arrival and egg-laying dates) that has occurred at the colony since 1983. To understand how the delay propagates through the rest of the reproductive cycle, we identified phenological trends in hatch and fledge dates. Median hatch dates were 0.29 d later each year, amounting to a 10-d shift over the course of the study. Median fledge dates did not shift over the 34-yr period, however, thus shortening the median nestling period duration by 14%. We tested several predictions regarding performance outcomes of the compressed nestling period, finding that later-hatched chicks fledged significantly younger than earlier-hatched chicks, and that younger fledglings left the colony with smaller bills and with more chick down. Interestingly, although younger chicks fledged significantly lighter and in worse body condition than older fledglings early in the study, this trend reversed over time, with younger chicks actually fledging heavier and in better body condition in more recent years. Smaller and lighter fledglings were less likely to recruit to the colony as adults. We find that delayed breeding has significantly compressed nestling periods at Punta Tombo, influencing chick growth and fledgling condition. These findings highlight the importance of studying phenology across multiple life events to understand the consequences of phenological shifts for organismal fitness.