Precipitation versus temperature as phenology controls in drylands

Slower changes in vegetation phenology than precipitation seasonality in the dry tropics

The dry tropics occupy ~40% of the tropical land surface and play a dominant role in the trend and interannual variability of the global carbon cycle. Previous studies have reported considerable changes in the dry tropical precipitation seasonality due to climate change, however, the accompanied changes in the length of the vegetation growing season (LGS)-the key period of carbon sequestration-have not been examined. Here, we used long-term satellite observations along with in-situ flux measurements to investigate phenological changes in the dry tropics over the past 40 years. We found that only ~18% of the dry tropics show a significant (p ≤ .1) increasing trend in LGS, while ~13% show a significant decreasing trend. The direction of the LGS change depended not only on the direction of precipitation seasonality change but also on the vegetation water use strategy (i.e. isohydricity) as an adaptation to the long-term average precipitation seasonality (i.e. whether the most of LGS is in the wet season or dry season). Meanwhile, we found that the rate of LGS change was on average ~23% slower than that of precipitation seasonality, caused by a buffering effect from soil moisture. This study uncovers potential mechanisms driving phenological changes in the dry tropics, offering guidance for regional vegetation and carbon cycle studies.

Wood anatomy and dendrochronological potentiality of some woody shrubs from the southern Mediterranean coast in Egypt

In tropical and subtropical regions, much research is still required to explore the dendrochronological potential of their trees. This study aims to evaluate the anatomical structure and dendrochronological potential of three Mediterranean desert shrubs in Egypt (Lycium schweinfurthii var. schweinfurthii, L. europaeum, and Calligonum polygonoides subsp. comosum) supported by X-ray density. The results showed that the target species had distinct growth rings at macroscopic and microscopic levels. The vessel traits reflected the adaptability of each species with the prevailing arid climate conditions. After the exclusion of the non-correlated series, we obtained three site chronologies that cover the years 2013-2022 for L. schweinfurthii, 2012-2022 for L. europaeum, and 2011-2022 for C. comosum. The mean series intercorrelation was 0.746, 0.564, and 0.683 for L. schweinfurthii, L. europaeum, and C. comosum, respectively. The EPS (expressed population signal) values ranged from 0.72 to 0.80, while the SNR (species-to-noise ratio) ranged from 9.1 to 21.5. Compiling all series of L. schweinfurthii raised the EPS value to 0.86. The chronologies developed for the studied species were relatively short since we dealt with multi-stemmed shrubs. The average percentage difference between latewood density (LWD) and earlywood density (EWD) in C. comosum, L. europaeum, and L. schweinfurthii were 11.8% ± 5.5, 5.2%± 1.87, and 3.6% ± 1.86, respectively. X-ray densitometry helped in the precise determination of the ring borders of the studied species. The relationships between the radial growth of the studied species and the climate variables were weak to moderate but mostly not significant (i.e., r < 0.7). Generally, the radial growth of the target species had a weak to moderate positive correlation with temperature and precipitation during the wet season (winter), while negatively correlated with temperature for the rest of the year, particularly in summer. Our data agrees with earlier findings that ring formation starts at the beginning of the long vegetative stage, then the rest of the assimilated carbohydrates are directed to the flowering and fruiting at the end of the vegetative stages. For more efficient dendrochronological studies on subtropical and Mediterranean trees, we recommend carrying out xylogenesis studies, collection of phenological data, sampling 45-80 trees per species, using new techniques, and choosing homogeneous and close sites for wood sampling.

Weather anomalies more important than climate means in driving insect phenology

Studies of long-term trends in phenology often rely on climatic averages or accumulated heat, overlooking climate variability. Here we test the hypothesis that unusual weather conditions are critical in driving adult insect phenology. First, we generate phenological estimates for Lepidoptera (moths and butterflies) across the Eastern USA, and over a 70 year period, using natural history collections data. Next, we assemble a set of predictors, including the number of unusually warm and cold days prior to, and during, the adult flight period. We then use phylogenetically informed linear mixed effects models to evaluate effects of unusual weather events, climate context, species traits, and their interactions on flight onset, offset and duration. We find increasing numbers of both warm and cold days were strong effects, dramatically increasing flight duration. This strong effect on duration is likely driven by differential onset and termination dynamics. For flight onset, impact of unusual climate conditions is dependent on climatic context, but for flight cessation, more unusually cold days always lead to later termination particularly for multivoltine species. These results show that understanding phenological responses under global change must account for unusual weather events, especially given they are predicted to increase in frequency and severity.

Effects of climate change and anthropogenic activity on ranges of vertebrate species endemic to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau over 40 years

Over the past 40 years, the climate has been changing and human disturbance has increased in the vast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). These 2 factors are expected to affect the distribution of a large number of endemic vertebrate species. However, quantitative relationships between range shifts and climate change and human disturbance of these species in the QTP have rarely been evaluated. We used occurrence records of 19 terrestrial vertebrate species (birds, mammals, amphibians, and reptiles) occurring in the QTP from 1980 to 2020 to quantify the effects of climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the distribution of these 4 taxonomic groups and estimated species range changes in each species. The trend in distribution changes differed among the taxonomic groups, although, generally, ranges shifted to central QTP. Climate change contributed more to range variation than human disturbance (the sum of the 4 climatic variables contributed more than the sum of the 4 human disturbance variables for all 4 taxonomic groups). Suitable geographic range increased for most mammals, amphibians, and reptiles (+27.6%, +18.4%, and +27.8% on average, respectively), whereas for birds range decreased on average by 0.9%. Quantitative evidence for climate change and human disturbance associations with range changes for endemic vertebrate species in the QTP can provide useful insights into biodiversity conservation under changing environments.

Shifts in floristic composition and structure in Australian rangelands

Monitoring shifts in vegetation composition over time is essential for tracking biodiversity changes and for designing ecosystem management strategies. In Australia, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN) provides a continent-wide network of monitoring sites (AusPlots) that can be used to assess the shifts in vegetation composition and structure of Australian Major Vegetation Groups (MVGs). Here we use time-series site data to quantify the extent and rate of MVG shifts between repeat visits and to recommend the most appropriate sampling frequency for specific MVGs. The research area spans a ~1,500 km latitudinal gradient within south/central Australia from arid rangelands in the north to Mediterranean vegetation in the south. The standardized AusPlots protocol was employed to repeatedly survey 103 one-hectare plots, assessed between 2011 and 2019. Floristic and growth form dissimilarities between visits were calculated with distance metrics and then regressed against survey interval. Multivariate ordination was used to explore temporal floristic shifts. Rank-dominance curves were used to display variations in species' importance. Between repeated visits, sites exhibited high variability for all vegetation parameters and trajectories. However, several trends emerged: (a) Species composition moved away from baseline linearly with intervals between surveys. (b) The rate of species turnover was approximately double in communities that are herbaceous versus woody-dominated. (c) Species abundances and growth forms shift at different speeds. All floristic and structural metrics shifted between re-visits, with varying magnitude and speed, but herbaceous-dominated plots showed higher floristic dynamism. Although the expanse, logistics, and the short time between visits constrained our analysis and interpretation, our results suggest that shorter revisit intervals may be appropriate for herbaceous compared to woody systems to track change most efficiently.