Aqueous and tissue residue-based interspecies correlation estimation models provide conservative hazard estimates for aromatic compounds

A novel procedure for predicting chronic toxicities and ecological risks of perfluorinated compounds in aquatic environment

Perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) can pose adverse effect on aquatic species and community structure. However, little is known about how the characteristics of molecules of PFCs affect their chronic toxic potencies to aquatic species, and the species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) and ecological risk assessments of PFCs are hampered by limited available data of chronic toxicity. In the present study, a novel procedure is proposed to obtain the ecological risk of PFCs using existing exposure concentrations of PFCs and SSDs integrated with the chronic toxicity prediction through robust QSAR models. The results showed that the energy of the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (E_LUMO) exhibited the strongest correlation with the chronic toxicities of 15 PFCs (R² > 0.844, F > 16.206, p < 0.05). SSDs of 15 PFCs on eight species were first constructed, and the SSD fitting parameters were significantly correlated with E_LUMO (R² > 0.610, F > 19.471, p < 0.05). The QSAR-SSDs support the evaluation of hazardous criteria of PFCs for which data are lacking. Given environmental exposure distributions (EEDs) of the national presence of PFCs in aquatic systems in China, the QSAR-SSDs models allow the development of the ecological risk assessment for PFCs. This way, it was concluded that negligible environmental risk (defined as 5% of the species being potentially exposed to concentrations able to cause effects in < 5% of the case) could be expected from exposure to PFCs in surface waters in China. This method may be helpful for providing an evidence-based approach to guide the risk management for PFCs in aquatic environment.

Hazard assessment of chemical constituents in biocide formulations used in offshore oil and gas operations

Biocides used in offshore oil and gas operations could be present in water discharges, and thus identifying such chemicals and their hazard could help address concerns regarding non-target organisms. Aquatic toxicity data, queried from different sources and augmented with predictive models, were used to develop species sensitivity distributions and their corresponding 5th percentile hazard concentrations (HC5s). Curated data, including over 1000 empirical records for 137 species, indicated no evidence of bias when comparing sensitivity between marine and freshwater species, even when predicted data were used. HC5s facilitated estimation of an acute-to-chronic ratio (ACR = 10), appropriate for most chemicals and useful in filling data gaps. Comparison of chronic-HC5s with the default approach for deriving predicted no effect concentrations showed that the latter systematically overstates aquatic hazard. The present approach shows promise of using acute-to-chronic HC5 ratios for defining assessment factors for different chemical classes, instead of the use of generic assessment factors.

Prediction of chemical reproductive toxicity to aquatic species using a machine learning model: An application in an ecological risk assessment of the Yangtze River, China

The endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) have been at the forefront of environmental issues for over 20 years and are a principle factor considered in every ecological risk assessment, but this kind of risk assessment faces difficulties. The expense, time cost of in vivo tests, and lack of toxicity data are key limiting factors for the ability to conduct ecological risk assessments of EDCs to aquatic species. In this study, a machine learning model named the support vector machine (SVM) was used to predict the reproductive toxicity of EDCs, and the performance of the models was evaluated. The results showed that the SVM model provided more accurate toxicity prediction data compared with the interspecies correlation estimation (ICE) model developed by previous study to predict the reproductive toxicity. The application of the predicted toxicity data was an important supplement to the observed data for the ecological risk assessment of EDCs in the Yangtze River, where estrogens and phenolic compounds have been found at some sampling sites in the middle and lower reaches. The results showed that the ecological risk of estrone, 17β-estradiol, and ethinyl estradiol were significant. This study revealed the application potential of machine learning models for the prediction of reproductive toxicity effects of EDCs. This can provide reliable alternative toxicity data for the ecological risk assessments of EDCs.

Predictive Toxicity Models for Chemically Related Substances: A Case Study with Nonionic Alcohol Ethoxylate Surfactant

Predictive toxicity models, including interspecies correlation estimation (ICE) models, are reliable alternatives to animal toxicity testing. The ICE models describe mathematical relationships facilitating toxicity prediction from one surrogate test species to a species of unknown sensitivity. The ICE models were developed from curated aquatic toxicity data for 19 nonionic alcohol ethoxylate (AE) surfactants manufactured through the same process. Comparison of AE-ICE predictions with observed values from external validation datasets indicates a reasonable predictive accuracy. Model predictions were also closer to observed values than predictions from previously published ICE models for other substance groups. Comparison of acute fifth percentile hazard concentrations (HC5s) from species sensitivity distributions enhanced with AE-ICE predictions with chronic HC5s published elsewhere produced an acute-to-chronic ratio of 5, which was used to estimate chronic HC5s. With both acute and chronic HC5s for 14 AE substances, regressions were made relative to their respective liposome-water partitioning coefficients (log K _lipw ), resulting in HC5-log K _lipw relationships useful in estimating HC5s for AE substances with known composition but with limited or unavailable toxicity data. The findings from this case study further demonstrate that ICE models are viable alternatives to toxicity testing and could be used as weight of evidence in hazard assessment evaluations. Environ Toxicol Chem 2021;40:2073-2082. © 2021 SETAC.

Conlecs: A novel procedure for deriving the concentration limits of chemicals outside the criteria of human drinking water using existing criteria and species sensitivity distribution based on quantitative structure-activity relationship prediction

Water quality criteria (WQC) for an increasing number of emerging chemicals need to be developed to protect human health and biological safety. Existing species sensitivity distribution (SSD) methods can only be used to help establish WQC for ecological protection, and cannot be extended to the protection of human beings from various hazards. In this study, a novel procedure called Conlecs is proposed to derive the concentration limits (ConLs) of pesticides outside the criteria for human drinking water (CHDW) using the existing criteria of pesticides and SSD integrated with the toxicity prediction achieved through robust QSAR models. Optimal SSD models of four pesticides (within the CHDW) and two pesticides (outside the CHDW) on 12 species were first constructed, and the existing ConLs of four pesticides within the CHDW were then utilized to select the most suitable species for the optimal proportions to avoid human hazards (PHH), allowing the ConLs of two pesticides outside the CHDW to be derived.

Effective extrapolation models for ecotoxicity of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX)

Benzene homologues have significant toxic effects to aquatic organisms. In this study, the acute toxicity data of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene (BTEX) were collected and screened, and the toxicity extrapolation model of paired BTEX was established. The results showed that except the correlation between benzene and xylene was not strong due to insufficient data, the linear correlation of the other five paired BTEX was good (p < 0.01), and R² fitted by the four out of five paired BTEX was greater than 0.85. The cross validation showed that ethylbenzene-xylene model was optimal, and for most species (81.8%), the established five BTEX models had a prediction error of less than 10%. Also, these extrapolation models were validated by experimental results of Pseudorasbora parva. The difference between the predicted and measured values of the acute toxicity of BTEX was less than 1 fold, which indicated that the extrapolation model had high accuracy.

Comparison of modes of action among different trophic levels of aquatic organisms for pesticides and medications based on interspecies correlations and excess toxicity: Theoretical consideration

Pesticides and medications have adverse effects in non-target organisms that can lead to different modes of action (MOAs). However, no study has been performed to compare the MOAs between different levels of aquatic species. In this study, theoretical equations of interspecies relationship and excess toxicity have been developed and used to investigate the MOAs among fish, Daphnia magna, Tetrahymena pyriformis and Vibrio fischeri for pesticides and medications. The analysis on the interspecies correlation and excess toxicity suggested that fungicides, herbicides and medications share the similar MOAs among the four species. On the other hand, insecticides share different MOAs among the four species. Exclusion of insecticides from the interspecies correlation can significantly improve regression coefficient. Interspecies relationship is dependent not only on the difference in interaction of chemicals with the target receptor(s), but also on the difference in bio-uptake between two species. The difference in physiological structures will result in the difference in bioconcentration potential between two different trophic levels of organisms. Increasing of molecular size or hydrophobicity will increase the toxicity to higher level of aquatic organisms; on the other hand, chemical ionization will decrease the toxicity to higher level organisms. Hydrophilic compounds can more easily pass through cell membrane than skin or gill, leading to greater excess toxicity to Vibrio fischeri, but not to fish and Daphnia magna.

Further Development and Refinement of Interspecies Correlation Estimation Models for Current-Use Dispersants

Limited species diversity in aquatic toxicity data for most current-use dispersants leads to uncertainties in hazard assessments, which impacts the broader discussion on dispersant use. Sufficient toxicity data are available for a re-evaluation of previously developed dispersant-interspecies correlation estimation (ICE) models. These models increase species diversity because toxicity predictions for untested species are made from the known toxicity for surrogates. Data were used to refine 4 and develop 25 new dispersant-ICE models. Most of the new models are for species not included in the >2000 existing ICE models, and contain a higher species diversity than the original dispersant-ICE models (19 vs 7 species). Dispersant-ICE models predict toxicity with reasonably accuracy: predictions were within 3-fold of observed values (new models: 70% of 132 predictions; refined models: 88% of 83 predictions), and species sensitivity distributions developed with ICE-predicted data only were in most cases not statistically significantly different from those developed with empirical data (83% of 23 paired comparisons). Examples of the practical application of dispersant-ICE models, including laboratory-to-field comparisons within the context of operational dispersant application rates, are also presented. The significance of these results is that dispersant-ICE models could fill gaps in species diversity, and thus help to address concerns about species sensitivities related to the use of dispersants. Environ Toxicol Chem 2019;38:1682-1691. © 2019 SETAC.

Development of interspecies correlation estimation (ICE) models to predict the reproduction toxicity of EDCs to aquatic species

Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) threaten the reproductive fitness of aquatic organisms at concentrations lower than those associated with longevity and development. However, the small number of aquatic species assessed for reproductive toxicity has limited the ecological risk assessment of EDCs, making sensible decisions more difficult. In response to this, interspecies correlation estimation (ICE) models were established for EDCs to enable the estimation of reproduction toxicity values to a wider range of organisms. A total of 16 ICE models of EDCs for 6 surrogate species were statistically significant. Of the 16 models, 37.5% (6 models) had a cross-validation success rate > 60%, with a relatively small model squared error, indicating that the model fit is robust. These model results implied that the action of EDCs for each species pair might involve the same mechanisms, and taxonomic relationships did not influence the prediction precision. The cross-validation success rate corroborated the consistency between the projected and experimental values for the EDC ICE models. Sixty-seven percent of the projected values fell within a 10-fold difference of the experimental data. The results indicated that a proven ICE model can greatly increase the amount of EDCs chronic toxicity data for predicted species, without the need for extensive animal experiments, thus providing substitute chronic toxicity data for rapid assessment of EDCs ecological risks.

Framework for Optimizing Selection of Interspecies Correlation Estimation Models to Address Species Diversity and Toxicity Gaps in an Aquatic Database

The Chemical Aquatic Fate and Effects (CAFE) database is a tool that facilitates assessments of accidental chemical releases into aquatic environments. CAFE contains aquatic toxicity data used in the development of species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) and the estimation of hazard concentrations (HCs). For many chemicals, gaps in species diversity and toxicity data limit the development of SSDs, which may be filled with Interspecies Correlation Estimation (ICE) models. Optimization of ICE model selection and integration ICE-predicted values into CAFE required a multistep process that involved the use of different types of data to assess their influence on SSDs and HC estimates. Results from multiple analyses showed that SSDs supplemented with ICE-predicted values generally produced HC5 estimates that were within a 3-fold difference of estimates from measured SSDs (58%-82% of comparisons), but that were often more conservative (63%-76% of comparisons) and had lower uncertainty (90% of comparisons). ICE SSDs did not substantially underpredict toxicity (<10% of comparisons) when compared to estimates from measured SSD. The incorporation of ICE-predicted values into CAFE allowed the development of >800 new SSDs, increased diversity in SSDs by an average of 34 species, and augmented data for priority chemicals involved in accidental chemical releases.