A process-based approach to hominin taxonomy provides new perspectives on hominin speciation

Reconciling Species Concepts: An Ecological Perspective

Species concepts remain contentious, both in paleoanthropology and in modern taxonomy. The lineage-based concept emphasizing evolutionary independence is most fundamental, but in practice is generally represented by proxy evidence of morphological or genetic divergence. This has resulted in a troubling proliferation of species names in the hominin fossil record. Pseudo-extinctions where lineages persisted under a new species name need to be distinguished from cases where lineages ended terminally-the implications for ecological adaptability are diametrically opposed. Furthermore, the ecological criterion for species coexistence is widely overlooked. The competitive exclusion principle holds that species sharing closely similar niches cannot continue to coexist in the same place at the same time. Notably, the largely vegetarian Paranthropus lineage remained distinct from the diverging, more versatile Homo lineage until fading from the fossil record during the later Pleistocene. Claims that additional hominin species existed are ecologically suspect unless supported by evidence of adequate niche separation. Modern examples where there has been equivocation in lineage recognition are illustrated for bovids, giraffids, baboons, and elephants. Furthermore, the mechanisms that resulted in the displacement of Neanderthals by modern humans are reappraised from an ecological perspective. Representations of evolutionary divergence as a bushy tree need to be superseded by the emerging paradigm of reticulate lineages diverging and coalescing through time and space.

Climate and Human Evolution: Insights from Marine Records

The relationship between climate and human evolution is complex, and the causal mechanisms remain unknown. Here, we review and synthesize what is currently known about climate forcings on African landscapes, focusing mainly on the last 4 million years. We use information derived from marine sediment archives and data-numerical climate model comparisons and integration. There exists a heterogeneity in pan-African hydroclimate changes, forced by a combination of orbitally paced, low-latitude fluctuations in insolation; polar ice volume changes; tropical sea surface temperature gradients linked to the Walker circulation; and possibly greenhouse gases. Pan-African vegetation changes do not follow the same pattern, which is suggestive of additional influences, such as CO2 and temperature. We caution against reliance on temporal correlations between global or regional climate, environmental changes, and human evolution and briefly proffer some ideas on how pan-African climate trends could help create novel conceptual frameworks to determine the causal mechanisms of associations between climate/habitat change and hominin evolution.

Diversity-dependent speciation and extinction in hominins

The search for drivers of hominin speciation and extinction has tended to focus on the impact of climate change. Far less attention has been paid to the role of interspecific competition. However, research across vertebrates more broadly has shown that both processes are often correlated with species diversity, suggesting an important role for interspecific competition. Here we ask whether hominin speciation and extinction conform to the expected patterns of negative and positive diversity dependence, respectively. We estimate speciation and extinction rates from fossil occurrence data with preservation variability priors in a validated Bayesian framework and test whether these rates are correlated with species diversity. We supplement these analyses with calculations of speciation rate across a phylogeny, again testing whether these are correlated with diversity. Our results are consistent with clade-wide diversity limits that governed speciation in hominins overall but that were not quite reached by the Australopithecus and Paranthropus subclade before its extinction. Extinction was not correlated with species diversity within the Australopithecus and Paranthropus subclade or within hominins overall; this is concordant with climate playing a greater part in hominin extinction than speciation. By contrast, Homo is characterized by positively diversity-dependent speciation and negatively diversity-dependent extinction-both exceedingly rare patterns across all forms of life. The genus Homo expands the set of reported associations between diversity and macroevolution in vertebrates, underscoring that the relationship between diversity and macroevolution is complex. These results indicate an important, previously underappreciated and comparatively unusual role of biotic interactions in Homo macroevolution, and speciation in particular. The unusual and unexpected patterns of diversity dependence in Homo speciation and extinction may be a consequence of repeated Homo range expansions driven by interspecific competition and made possible by recurrent innovations in ecological strategies. Exploring how hominin macroevolution fits into the general vertebrate macroevolutionary landscape has the potential to offer new perspectives on longstanding questions in vertebrate evolution and shed new light on evolutionary processes within our own lineage.

Ghosts of extinct apes: genomic insights into African hominid evolution

We are accustomed to regular announcements of new hominin fossils. There are now some 6000 hominin fossils, and up to 31 species. However, where are the announcements of African ape fossils? The answer is that there are almost none. Our knowledge of African ape evolution is based entirely on genomic analyses, which show that extant diversity is very young. This contrasts with the extensive and deep diversity of hominins known from fossils. Does this difference point to low and late diversification of ape lineages, or high rates of extinction? The comparative evolutionary dynamics of African hominids are central to interpreting living ape adaptations, as well as understanding the patterns of hominin evolution and the nature of the last common ancestor.

A lineage perspective on hominin taxonomy and evolution

An uncritical reliance on the phylogenetic species concept has led paleoanthropologists to become increasingly typological in their delimitation of new species in the hominin fossil record. As a practical matter, this approach identifies species as diagnosably distinct groups of fossils that share a unique suite of morphological characters but, ontologically, a species is a metapopulation lineage segment that extends from initial divergence to eventual extinction or subsequent speciation. Working from first principles of species concept theory, it is clear that a reliance on morphological diagnosabilty will systematically overestimate species diversity in the fossil record; because morphology can evolve within a lineage segment, it follows that early and late populations of the same species can be diagnosably distinct from each other. We suggest that a combination of morphology and chronology provides a more robust test of the single-species null hypothesis than morphology alone.

A new approach to exploratory data analysis in hominin phylogenetic reconstruction

The phylogenetic relationships between fossil hominin taxa have been a contentious topic for decades. Recent discoveries of new taxa, rather than resolving the issue, have only further confused it. Compounding this problem are the limitations of some of the tools frequently used by paleoanthropologists to analyze these relationships. Most commonly, phylogenetic questions are investigated using analytical methods such as maximum parsimony and Bayesian analysis. While these are useful analytical tools, these tree-building methods can have limitations when investigating taxa that may have complex evolutionary histories. Exploratory data analysis can provide information about patterns in a dataset that are obscured by tree-based methods. These patterns include phylogenetic signal conflict, which is not depicted in tree-based methods. Signal conflict can have a number of sources, including methodological issues with character choice, taxonomic issues, homoplasy, and gene flow between taxa. In this study, an exploratory data analysis of fossil hominin morphological data is conducted using the tree-based analytical method neighbor-joining and the network-based analytical method neighbor-net with the goal of visualizing phylogenetic signal conflict within a hominin morphological data set. The data set is divided into cranial regions, and each cranial region is analyzed individually to investigate which regions of the skull contain the highest levels of signal conflict. Results of this analysis show that conflicting phylogenetic signals are present in the hominin fossil record during the relatively speciose period between 3 and 1 Ma, and they also indicate that levels of signal conflict vary by cranial region. Possible sources of these conflicting signals are then explored. Exploratory data analyses such as this can be a useful tool in generating phylogenetic hypotheses and in refining character choice. This study also highlights the value network-based approaches can bring to the hominin phylogenetic analysis toolkit.

Evolution of Homo in the Middle and Late Pleistocene

The Middle and Late Pleistocene is arguably the most interesting period in human evolution. This broad period witnessed the evolution of our own lineage, as well as that of our sister taxon, the Neanderthals, and related Denisovans. It is exceptionally rich in both fossil and archaeological remains, and uniquely benefits from insights gained through molecular approaches, such as paleogenetics and paleoproteomics, that are currently not widely applicable in earlier contexts. This wealth of information paints a highly complex picture, often described as 'the Muddle in the Middle,' defying the common adage that 'more evidence is needed' to resolve it. Here we review competing phylogenetic scenarios and the historical and theoretical developments that shaped our approaches to the fossil record, as well as some of the many remaining open questions associated with this period. We propose that advancing our understanding of this critical time requires more than the addition of data and will necessitate a major shift in our conceptual and theoretical framework.