The Fragile State of Industrial Agriculture: Estimating Crop Yield Reductions in a Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss Scenario

Resilience to abrupt global catastrophic risks disrupting trade: Combining urban and near-urban agriculture in a quantified case study of a globally median-sized city

BACKGROUND

Abrupt global catastrophic risks (GCRs) are not improbable and could massively disrupt global trade leading to shortages of critical commodities, such as liquid fuels, upon which industrial food production, processing and distribution depends. Previous studies have suggested urban agriculture as a resilience measure in the context of climate change and other natural hazards.

AIMS

To estimate the contribution a radical pivot to urban agriculture could have in building resilience to GCRs and the near-urban industrial agriculture needed to supplement urban food production.

METHODS

We determined optimum crops through mathematical optimization for food calorie and protein supply per land area for both urban and near-urban (industrial) agriculture. We calculated the land area available for food production within a temperate globally median-sized city using Google Earth image analysis of residential lots and open city spaces. We calculated the population that could be fed through urban agriculture alone, and the extra near-urban land required for cropping with industrial agriculture to feed the remaining city population, under both normal climate, and potential nuclear winter conditions.

RESULTS

The optimal crops for urban agriculture were peas (normal climate), and sugar beet/spinach (nuclear winter); while those optimal for industrial near-urban production were potatoes (normal climate), and wheat/carrots (nuclear winter). Urban agriculture could feed a fifth (20%) of the population. At least 1140 hectares of near-urban cultivation could make up the shortfall. Another 110 hectares of biofuel feedstock like canola (rapeseed) could provide biodiesel to run agricultural machinery without fuel trade. Significantly more cultivated area is needed in nuclear winter scenarios due to reduced yields.

CONCLUSION

Relatively little optimized near-urban industrial agriculture, along with intensified urban agriculture could feed a median-sized city in a GCR, while minimizing fuel requirements. Governments and municipal authorities could consider land use policy that encourages development of urban agriculture and near-urban cultivation of optimal crops, along with processing and local biofuel refining capacity.

Mitigating imported fuel dependency in agricultural production: Case study of an island nation's vulnerability to global catastrophic risks

A major global catastrophe would likely disrupt trade in liquid fuels. Countries dependent on imported oil products might struggle to sustain industrial agriculture. Island nations importing 100% of refined fuels are particularly vulnerable. Our case study aimed to estimate the agricultural land area and biofuel volumes needed to feed the population of New Zealand in the absence of trade. Results showed that stored diesel would quickly be exhausted with ordinary use (weeks) and even with strict rationing (months). To preserve fuel, we found that farming wheat (requiring as little as 5.4 million liters [L] of diesel per annum) was more fuel-efficient than potatoes (12.3) or dairy (38.7) to feed the national population under a climate-as-usual scenario. In a nuclear winter scenario, with reduced agricultural yields, proportionately greater diesel is needed. The wheat would require 24% of current grain-cropped land, and the canola crop used as feedstock for the required biofuel would occupy a further 1%-7%. Investment in canola biodiesel or renewable diesel refineries could ensure supply for the bare minimum agricultural liquid fuel needs. Were subsequent analysis to favor this option as part of a fuels resilience response and as a tradeoff for routine food use, expansion in refining and canola cropping before a catastrophe could be encouraged through market mechanisms, direct government investment, or a combination of these. Logistics of biofuel refining scale-up, post-catastrophe, should also be analyzed. Further, biodiesel produced in normal times would help the nation meet its emissions reduction targets. Other countries should conduct similar analyses.