Are terminal decline and its potential indicators detectable in population studies of the oldest old?

Trajectories of Cognitive Change and Their Association with All-Cause Mortality Among Chinese Older Adults: Results from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey

The analysis of cognitive trajectories is relatively underexplored in China. Furthermore, most previous studies examining the association between cognitive function and mortality have been limited to cross-sectional perspectives. This study aims to identify distinct cognitive trajectories and the corresponding influencing factors and investigate the impact of these trajectories on all-cause mortality in Chinese older adults. A total of 6232 subjects aged 65 years and above were drawn from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey. Growth mixture models were utilized to identify different cognitive trajectories, while Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between the cognitive trajectories and all-cause mortality after adjusting for covariates. Four cognitive trajectories were identified: rapid decline group, slow decline group, low-level stable group, and high-level stable group. Some factors such as age, sex, and marital status were significantly associated with trajectories. Compared to the high-level stable group, adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the all-cause mortality were 3.87 (95% CI: 3.35-4.48), 1.41 (95% CI: 1.24-1.59), and 1.37 (95% CI: 1.18-1.58) for the rapid decline group, the slow decline group, and the low-level stable group, respectively, indicating that these three groups had a higher mortality risk. In summary, these findings facilitate the development of targeted health promotion measures, which have implications for reducing the social and economic burdens of cognitive decline.

Cognitive impairment assessed by Mini-Mental State Examination predicts all-cause and CVD mortality in Chinese older adults: A 10-year follow-up study

Objective

Cognitive impairment (CI) has been demonstrated as a useful proxy measure of mortality in Western populations. However, the predictive value of CI in Chinese populations is unknown. We aimed to explore whether CI is independently associated with increased long-term all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in Chinese older adults and the association of performance in specific MMSE sub-domains to subsequent mortality.

Methods and results

A total of 4,499 older adults [mean (SD) age, 70.3(6.7) years] who received a sample investigation from 2011 to 2014 were followed up till 2021 for mortality. The Mini-Mental State Examination was used to assess cognitive function, and Cox's proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the effects of cognitive function on the risk of all-cause and CVD mortality. Demographic characteristics, lifestyle, and health status were included as covariates. During a 10-year follow-up, a total of 667 (14.8%) died. In the fully adjusted model, compared with cognitively normal participants with CI had a 1.33-fold [HR, 1.33; (95% CI, 1.10-1.61)] greater risk of all-cause mortality and a 1.45-fold [HR, 1.45; (95% CIs, 1.11-1.92)] greater risk of CVD mortality. After a similar multivariable adjustment, a per-SD increase in MMSE scores was associated with a reduced risk of all-cause mortality [HR, 0.85; (95% CI, 0.78-0.93)] and CVD mortality [HR, 0.74; (95% CI, 0.65-0.84)]. In the unadjusted model, MMSE sub-domains (apart from immediate recall) were associated with mortality. But only orientation and calculation and attention were still independently associated with all-cause and CVD mortality in a multivariable model.

Conclusion

These findings confirmed that CI is a marker of all-cause and CVD mortality risk in Chinese older adults, independently of other commonly assessed risk factors, and some sub-domains of the MMSE may have stronger associations with mortality. Further research is needed to identify the mechanisms underlying the observed associations.

Persistent delirium in older hospital patients: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Delirium is associated with future dementia progression. Yet whether this occurs subclinically over months and years, or persistent delirium merges into worsened dementia is not understood. Our objective was to estimate the prevalence of persistent delirium and understand variation in its duration.

Methods

We adopted an identical search strategy to a previous systematic review, only including studies using a recognised diagnostic framework for ascertaining delirium at follow-up (persistent delirium). Studies included hospitalised older patients outside critical and palliative care settings. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews on 11th January 2022. We applied risk of bias assessments based on Standards of Reporting of Neurological Disorders criteria and assessed strength of recommendations using the grading of recommendation, assessment, development and evaluation (GRADE) approach. Estimates were pooled across studies using random-effects meta-analysis, and we estimated associations with follow-up duration using robust error meta-regression.

Results

We identified 13 new cohorts, which we added to 10 from the previous systematic review (23 relevant studies, with 39 reports of persistent delirium at 7 time-points in 3186 individuals admitted to hospital care (mean age 82 years and 41% dementia prevalence). Studies were mainly at moderate risk of bias. Pooled delirium prevalence estimates at discharge were 36% (95% CI 22% to 51%, 13 studies). Robust error meta-regression did not show variation in prevalence of persistent delirium over time (-1.6% per month, 95% CI -4.8 to 1.6, p=0.08). Margins estimates for this model indicate a prevalence of persistent delirium of 16% (95% CI 6% to 25%) at 12 months.

Conclusions

This systematic review emphasises the importance of delirium as a persistent and extensive problem (GRADE certainty = moderate), raising questions on chronic delirium as a clinical entity and how it might evolve into dementia. Addressing persistent delirium will require a whole-system, integrated approach to detect, follow-up and implement opportunities for recovery across all healthcare settings.

Synergistic impact of diabetes and cognitive impairment on all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Chinese older adults: A prospective population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Diabetes mellitus (DM) or cognitive impairment (CI) is known to be strongly associated with mortality. DM commonly coexists with CI and proportionally increases with age. However, little is known about the combined effect of cognitive function and diabetes on mortality. This study aimed to evaluate the combined effects of DM and CI on all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Chinese older adults.

METHODS

This prospective population-based cohort study was based on the Beijing Elderly Comprehensive Health Cohort Study. A total of 4,499 older adults were included. Cox's proportional hazard models were utilized to calculate the effect of DM and CI on all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and cancer mortality, and a multiplicative term was introduced to study a potential interaction between DM and CI on outcomes.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 6.8 years (ranging from 6.6 to 11.7 years), 667 (14.8%) participants died from all causes, 292 from CVD, and 215 from cancer. In the fully adjusted model, participants with coexisting DM and CI had the highest risk of all-cause mortality [hazard ratios (HRs), 3.08; 95% confidence intervals (CIs), 2.30,4.11] and CVD mortality (HRs, 3.85; 95% CIs, 2.60,5.71) compared with individuals with normal cognition and non-DM. We also found a multiplicative interaction between DM and CI in respect to all-cause (HRs, 2.46; 95% CI, 1.87,3.22) and CVD mortality (HRs, 3.15 95% CI, 2.19,4.55). In the diabetic population, CI was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (HRs, 2.09; 95% CIs, 1.51,2.89) and CVD mortality (HRs, 3.16; 95% CIs, 2.02,5.05) compared with the normal cognition group. Restricted cubic spline revealed a linear inverse association between Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score and all-cause, CVD mortality in the total sample and participants without diabetes. However, a nearly reverse J association was observed between MMSE and mortality from all causes and CVD in the diabetes group.

CONCLUSION

The findings highlighted that cognitive impairment concomitant with diabetes further increases the risk of mortality. In addition to strengthening routine screening of cognitive functioning in older adults with early-stage diabetes, more extensive assessment of prognostic risks has high clinical value for developing comprehensive treatment plans.

Cognitive Dispersion Predicts Grip Strength Trajectories in Men but not Women in a Sample of the Oldest Old Without Dementia

Background and Objectives

Grip strength is a reliable marker of biological vitality and it typically demonstrates an expected decline in older adults. According to the common-cause hypothesis, there is also a significant association between cognitive and physical function in older adults. Some specific cognitive functions have been shown to be associated with grip strength trajectories with most research solely focused on cutoff points or mean cognitive performance. In the present study, we examine whether a measure of cognitive dispersion might be more informative. We therefore used an index that quantifies dispersion in cognitive scores across multiple cognitive tests, shown to be associated with detrimental outcomes in older adults.

Research Design and Methods

Using repeated grip strength measures from men and women aged 80 and older, free of dementia in the OCTO-Twin study, we estimated aging-related grip strength trajectories. We examined the association of cognitive dispersion and mean cognitive function with grip strength level and aging-related rate of change, accounting for known risk factors.

Results

Cognitive dispersion was associated with grip strength trajectories in men and the association varied by mean cognitive performance, whereas we found no association in women.

Discussion and Implications

Our results provide evidence of a sex-specific vitality association between cognitive dispersion and aging-related trajectories of grip strength. Our results support the call for integration of sex and gender in health promotion and intervention research.

The long arm of childhood intelligence on terminal decline: Evidence from the Lothian Birth Cohort 1921

The current study investigates the heterogeneity of cognitive trajectories at the end of life by assigning individuals into groups according to their cognitive trajectories prior to death. It also examines the role of childhood intelligence and education on these trajectories and group membership. Participants were drawn from the Lothian Birth Cohort of 1921 (LBC1921), a longitudinal study of individuals with a mean age of 79 years at study entry, and observed up to a maximum of five times to their early 90s. Growth mixture modeling was employed to identify groups of individuals with similar trajectories of global cognitive function measured with the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) in relation to time to death, accounting for childhood intelligence, education, the time to death from study entry, and health conditions (hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease). Two distinct groups of individuals (classes) were identified: a smaller class (18% of the sample) of individuals whose MMSE scores dropped linearly with about 0.5 MMSE points per year closer to death and a larger group (82% of the sample) with stable MMSE across the study period. Only childhood intelligence was found to be associated with an increased probability of belonging to the stable class of cognitive functioning prior to death (odds ratio = 1.08, standard error = 0.02, p ≤ .001). These findings support a protective role of childhood intelligence, a marker of cognitive reserve, against the loss of cognitive function prior to death. Our results also suggest that terminal decline is not necessarily a normative process. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Proportion of cognitive loss attributable to terminal decline

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the proportion of late-life cognitive loss attributable to impending death.

METHODS

Older persons (n = 1,071) in a longitudinal cohort study without dementia at enrollment underwent annual cognitive assessments (mean 10.6 years, SD 4.6, range 4-24) prior to death. We estimated the onset of terminal acceleration in cognitive decline and rates of decline before and after this point in change point models that allowed calculation of the percent of cognitive loss attributable to terminal decline. Outcomes were composite measures of global and specific cognitive functions. We also estimated dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) incidence before and during the terminal period.

RESULTS

A mean of 3.7 years before death (95% credible interval [CI] -3.8 to -3.5), the rate of global cognitive decline accelerated to -0.313 unit per year (95% CI -0.337 to -0.290), a more than 7-fold increase indicative of terminal decline. The mean global cognitive score dropped 0.377 unit (SD 0.516) assuming no terminal decline and 1.192 units (SD 1.080) with terminal decline. As a result, 71% (95% bootstrapped CI 0.70, 0.73) of overall global cognitive loss was terminal. In subsequent analyses, terminal decline accounted for 70% of episodic memory loss, 65% of semantic memory loss, 57% of working memory loss, 52% of perceptual speed loss, and 53% of visuospatial loss. MCI incidence in the preterminal and terminal periods was similar, but dementia incidence was more than 6-fold higher in the terminal period than preterminal.

CONCLUSION

Most late-life cognitive loss is driven by terminal decline.

Terminal decline of episodic memory and perceptual speed in a biracial population

We compared trajectories of terminal cognitive decline in older Black (n = 3372) and White (n = 1756) persons from a defined population who completed tests of episodic memory and perceptual speed at 3-year intervals for up to 18 years. During a mean of 9.9 years of observation, 1608 Black persons and 902 White persons died. Preterminal decline of episodic memory did not differ by race. Terminal episodic memory decline began earlier in Black persons (mean of 4.3 years before death) than in White persons (mean = 3.9 years) and progressed more slowly. By contrast, terminal decline of perceptual speed began earlier in White persons (mean = 5.0 years) than in Black persons (mean = 4.5 years). Rate of perceptual speed decline was more rapid in White persons than in Black persons in both the preterminal and terminal periods. The results indicate that terminal cognitive decline occurs in Black persons but suggest that the rate of cognitive decline during the terminal period is less rapid in Black persons than in White persons.

Association of Delirium With Cognitive Decline in Late Life: A Neuropathologic Study of 3 Population-Based Cohort Studies

IMPORTANCE

Delirium is associated with accelerated cognitive decline. The pathologic substrates of this association are not yet known, that is, whether they are the same as those associated with dementia, are independent, or are interrelated.

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether the accelerated cognitive decline observed after delirium is independent of the pathologic processes of classic dementia.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Harmonized data from 987 individual brain donors from 3 observational cohort studies with population-based sampling (Vantaa 85+, Cambridge City Over-75s Cohort, Cognitive Function and Ageing Study) performed from January 1, 1985, through December 31, 2011, with a median follow-up of 5.2 years until death, were used in this study. Neuropathologic assessments were performed with investigators masked to clinical data. Data analysis was performed from January 1, 2012, through December 31, 2013. Clinical characteristics of brain donors were not different from the rest of the cohort. Outcome ascertainment was complete given that the participants were brain donors.

EXPOSURES

Delirium (never vs ever) and pathologic burden of neurofibrillary tangles, amyloid plaques, vascular lesions, and Lewy bodies. Effects modeled using random-effects linear regression and interactions between delirium and pathologic burden were assessed.

OUTCOMES

Change in Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores during the 6 years before death.

RESULTS

There were 987 participants (290 from Vantaa 85+, 241 from the Cambridge City Over-75s Cohort, and 456 from the Cognitive Function and Ageing Study) with neuropathologic data; mean (SD) age at death was 90 (6.4) years, including 682 women (69%). The mean MMSE score 6 years before death was 24.7 points. The 279 individuals with delirium (75% women) had worse initial scores (-2.8 points; 95% CI, -4.5 to -1.0; P < .001). Cognitive decline attributable to delirium was -0.37 MMSE points per year (95% CI, -0.60 to -0.13; P < .001). Decline attributable to the pathologic processes of dementia was -0.39 MMSE points per year (95% CI, -0.57 to -0.22; P < .001). However, the combination of delirium and the pathologic processes of dementia resulted in the greatest decline, in which the interaction contributed an additional -0.16 MMSE points per year (95% CI, -0.29 to -0.03; P = .01). The multiplicative nature of these variables resulted in individuals with delirium and the pathologic processes of dementia declining 0.72 MMSE points per year faster than age-, sex-, and educational level-matched controls.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Delirium in the presence of the pathologic processes of dementia is associated with accelerated cognitive decline beyond that expected for delirium or the pathologic process itself. These findings suggest that additional unmeasured pathologic processes specifically relate to delirium. Age-related cognitive decline has many contributors, and these findings at the population level support a role for delirium acting independently and multiplicatively to the pathologic processes of classic dementia.

A Novel Examination of Successful Aging Trajectories at the End of Life

Un indice de vieillissement réussi (SA) a été capturé dans une étude de cohorte longitudinale basée sur la population des personnes de 75 ans et plus, qui a été examiné longitudinalement en utilisant la modélisation d’un mélange de croissance (MMC) pour identifier les groupes ayant des trajectoires similaires utilisant la dernière interview complète de personnes décédées et jusqu’à quatre collections de données précédentes avant la mort. MMC a identifié un modèle avec trois classes. Les classes étaient : haut fonctionnement, pas de déclin (HPD); fonctionnement élevé, baisse progressive (HBP); et un faible fonctionnement, fort baisse (FB). Les individus de la classe HPD étaient significativement plus jeunes à la mort, et à la fin de l’examen, se composait de plus d’hommes, et plus susceptibles d’être mariées, comparativement aux individus HBP et FB. Ces résultats démontrent différentes façons dont les individus peuvent éprouver un vieillissement réussi à la fin de vie. Cette étude fournit le cadre pour la recherche future en ce qui concerne les processus du vieillissement pendant toute la vie, avec des implications importantes pour la politique et la pratique.

The role of cognitive reserve on terminal decline: a cross-cohort analysis from two European studies: OCTO-Twin, Sweden, and Newcastle 85+, UK

OBJECTIVE

Cognitive performance shows a marked deterioration in close proximity to death, as postulated by the terminal decline hypothesis. The effect of education on the rate of terminal decline in the oldest people (i.e. persons 85+ years) has been controversial and not entirely understood. In the current study, we investigated the rate of decline prior to death with a special focus on the role of education and socioeconomic position, in two European longitudinal studies of ageing: the Origins of Variance in the Old-Old: Octogenarian Twins (OCTO-Twin) and the Newcastle 85+ study.

METHODS

A process-based approach was used in which individuals' cognitive scores were aligned according to distance to death. In a coordinated analysis, multilevel models were employed to examine associations between different markers of cognitive reserve (education and socioeconomic position) and terminal decline using the mini-mental state examination (MMSE), controlling for age at baseline, sex, dementia incidence and time to death from the study entry to the time of death within each cohort.

RESULTS

The current findings suggest that education was positively associated with higher MMSE scores prior to death in the OCTO-Twin, but not in the Newcastle 85+ study, independent of socioeconomic position and other factors such as baseline age, sex and time to death from the study entry. However, education was not associated with the rate of terminal decline in both of these studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results offer only partial support to the cognitive reserve hypothesis and cognitive performance prior to death.

Education associated with a delayed onset of terminal decline

Background: the terminal decline hypothesis suggests an acceleration in the rate of loss of cognitive function before death. Evidence about the association of educational attainment and the onset of terminal decline is scarce.

Objective: to investigate the association of education with the onset of terminal decline in global cognitive function measured by Mini Mental State Exam (MMSE) scores.

Subjects: deceased participants of the Cambridge City over 75 Cohort Study who were interviewed at about 2, 7, 9, 13, 17 and 21 years after baseline.

Methods: regular and Tobit random change point growth models were fitted to MMSE scores to identify the onset of terminal decline and assess the effect of education on this onset.

Results: people who left school at an older age had a delayed onset of terminal decline. Thus better educated individuals experience a slightly shorter period of faster decline before death.

Conclusion: an important finding emerging from our work is that education does appear to delay the onset of terminal decline, although only by a limited amount.

Cognitive and social lifestyle: links with neuropathology and cognition in late life

Many studies report an association of cognitive and social experiential factors and related traits with dementia risk. Further, many clinical-pathologic studies find a poor correspondence between levels of neuropathology and the presence of dementia and level of cognitive impairment. The poor correspondence suggests that other factors contribute to the maintenance or loss of cognitive function, with factors associated with the maintenance of function referred to as neural or cognitive reserve. This has led investigators to examine the associations of cognitive and social experiential factors with neuropathology as a first step in disentangling the complex associations between these experiential risk factors, neuropathology, and cognitive impairment. Despite the consistent associations of a range of cognitive and social lifestyle factors with cognitive decline and dementia risk, the extant clinical-pathologic data find only a single factor from one cohort, linguistic ability, related to AD pathology. Other factors, including education, harm avoidance, and emotional neglect, are associated with cerebrovascular disease. Overall, the associations are weak. Some factors, such as education, social networks, and purpose in life, modify the relation of neuropathology to cognition. Finally, some factors such as cognitive activity appear to bypass known pathologies altogether suggesting a more direct association with biologic indices that promote person-specific differences in reserve and resilience. Future work will first need to replicate findings across more studies to ensure the veracity of the existing data. Second, effort is needed to identify the molecular substrates of neural reserve as potential mediators of the association of lifestyle factors with cognition.

Investigating terminal decline: results from a UK population-based study of aging

The terminal decline hypothesis states that in the proximity of death, an individual's decline in cognitive abilities accelerates. We aimed at estimating the onset of faster rate of decline in global cognition using Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores from participants of the Cambridge City over 75 Cohort Study (CC75C), a U.K. population-based longitudinal study of aging where almost all participants have died. The random change point model fitted to MMSE scores structured as a function of distance to death allowed us to identify a potentially different onset of change in rate of decline before death for each individual in the sample. Differences in rate of change before and after the onset of change in rate of decline by sociodemographic variables were investigated. On average, the onset of a faster rate of change occurred about 7.7 years before death and varied across individuals. Our results show that most individuals experience a period of slight decline followed by a much sharper decline. Education, age at death, and cognitive impairment at study entry were identified as modifiers of rate of change before and after change in rate of decline. Gender differences were found in rate of decline in the final stages of life. Our study suggests that terminal decline is a heterogeneous process, with its onset varying between individuals.