The Impact of Smoking Bans on Smoking and Consumer Behavior: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Switzerland

A systematic review and network meta-analysis of population-level interventions to tackle smoking behaviour

This preregistered systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO: CRD 42022311392) aimed to synthesize the effectiveness of all available population-level tobacco policies on smoking behaviour. Our search across 5 databases and leading organizational websites resulted in 9,925 records, with 476 studies meeting our inclusion criteria. In our narrative summary and both pairwise and network meta-analyses, we identified anti-smoking campaigns, health warnings and tax increases as the most effective tobacco policies for promoting smoking cessation. Flavour bans and free/discounted nicotine replacement therapy also showed statistically significant positive effects on quit rates. The network meta-analysis results further indicated that smoking bans, anti-tobacco campaigns and tax increases effectively reduced smoking prevalence. In addition, flavour bans significantly reduced e-cigarette consumption. Both the narrative summary and the meta-analyses revealed that smoking bans, tax increases and anti-tobacco campaigns were associated with reductions in tobacco consumption and sales. On the basis of the available evidence, anti-tobacco campaigns, smoking bans, health warnings and tax increases are probably the most effective policies for curbing smoking behaviour.

Effects of comprehensive smoke-free legislation on smoking behaviours and macroeconomic outcomes in Shanghai, China: a difference-in-differences analysis and modelling study

BACKGROUND

China has one of the highest levels of tobacco consumption globally, and there is no national smoke-free legislation. Although more than 20 Chinese cities have passed local smoke-free laws since 2008, evidence on their effectiveness in reducing smoking behaviours and their economic benefits is scarce. By exploiting a natural quasi-experiment, whereby a comprehensive public smoking ban was implemented in Shanghai in March, 2017, this study aims to assess the impact of the policy on individual smoking behaviours and quantify its effect on macroeconomic outcomes.

METHODS

In this difference-in-differences analysis and modelling study, we used data on smoking behaviours from the 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018 waves of the China Family Panel Studies. We used a difference-in-differences approach to investigate trends in smoking prevalence in respondents in Shanghai, relative to respondents from other direct-administered municipalities, provincial capital cities, and subprovincial municipalities (control group), after the implementation of a smoking ban in 2017. All respondents aged 18 years or older were included, with the exception of people who lived in Beijing and rural areas. The primary variable of interest in the difference-in-differences analysis was self-reported smoking status. Based on the difference-in-differences estimation of reduction in smoking prevalence, we then used a health-augmented macroeconomic model to estimate the potential macroeconomic gains if such a ban was implemented across China for the period 2017-35.

FINDINGS

14 688 respondents were included in the analysis: 5766 from Shanghai and 8922 from the control group. After the implementation of the smoking ban in Shanghai in 2017, smoking prevalence decreased by 2·2 percentage points (95% CI 2·1-2·3), equivalent to an 8·4% reduction in the number of current smokers. The smoking ban had a larger effect on men, people with a higher level of education, unmarried people, and younger people when compared with their respective counterparts. The modelling analysis showed that implementing a nationwide comprehensive public smoking ban similar to that in Shanghai would result in a 0·04-0·07% increase in the national gross domestic product in China between 2017 and 2035, outweighing the economic costs of smoking ban enforcement.

INTERPRETATION

The smoking ban in Shanghai shows that a comprehensive public smoking ban with strict enforcement is effective in curbing smoking behaviours. Moreover, the implementation of a comprehensive public smoking ban across China would be cost-effective.

FUNDING

National Social Science Fund of China.

Impact of smoke-free legislation on stroke risk: A systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

Secondhand smoke significantly increases the risk of cerebrovascular diseases, prompting recent public smoking bans. We aimed to ascertain the effects of smoke-free legislation on stroke incidence and mortality.

METHODS

We systematically searched Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Scopus up to August 13, 2023, for studies reporting changes in stroke incidence following partial or comprehensive smoking bans. A random-effects meta-analysis was conducted on hospital admissions and mortality for stroke, stratified based on comprehensiveness of the ban ((i) workplaces-only, (ii) workplaces and restaurants, (iii) workplaces, restaurants and bars). The effect of post-ban follow-up duration was assessed visually by a forest plot, while meta-regression was employed to evaluate for any dose-response relationship between ban comprehensiveness and stroke risk.

FINDINGS

Of 3987 records identified, 15 studies analysing bans across a median follow-up time of 24 months (range: 3-67) were included. WRB bans were associated with reductions in the rates of hospital admissions for stroke (nine studies; RR, 0.918; 95% CI, 0.872-0.967) and stroke mortality (three studies; RR, 0.987; 95% CI, 0.952-1.022), although the latter did not reach statistical significance. There was no significant difference in the risk of stroke admissions for studies with increased ban comprehensiveness and no minimum duration for significant post-ban effects to be observed.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Legislative smoking bans were associated with significant reductions in stroke-related hospital admissions, providing evidence for its utility as a public health intervention.

Exposure to cigarette taxes as a teenager and the persistence of smoking into adulthood

Are teenage and adult smoking causally related? Recent anti-tobacco policy is predicated on the assumption that preventing teenagers from smoking will ensure that fewer adults smoke, but direct evidence in support of this assumption is scant. Using data from three nationally representative sources and instrumenting for teenage smoking with cigarette taxes experienced at ages 14-17, we document a strong positive relationship between teenage and adult smoking: deterring 10 teenagers from smoking through raising cigarette taxes roughly translates into 5 fewer adult smokers. We conclude that efforts to reduce teenage smoking can have long-lasting consequences on smoking participation and, presumably, health.

Cross-country and panel data estimates of the price elasticity of demand for cigarettes in Europe

OBJECTIVE

Our goal is to provide estimates of the price elasticity of demand for cigarettes in Europe as a basis for public health policy on tobacco taxation.

METHODS

We use secondary data on cigarette retail sales including illicit trade, prices, tobacco control measures and income from 2010 to 2020 of 27 European countries from Euromonitor, the WHO, the Tobacco Control Scale and the World Bank. We estimate the price elasticity of demand using instrumental variable regressions as well as panel data regressions taking into account that prices and quantities are determined simultaneously in the market.

RESULTS

Based on cross-section data at the country level, we find that during the decade from 2010 to 2020, the demand for cigarettes in Europe has become neither more nor less elastic. Our estimates of the price elasticity based on panel data are around -0.4 (95% CI -0.67 to -0.24), in line with previous estimates for high-income countries. Furthermore, our analysis shows that estimates of the price elasticity of demand that are based on data including illicit trade tend to be lower. This has also been found in the previous literature.

CONCLUSIONS

By providing state-of-the-art, up-to-date estimates of the price elasticity of demand that are in line with the previous literature, we show that taxation can still be a cost-effective tobacco policy to reduce cigarette consumption and thus, the burden of smoking.

The Economics of Tobacco Regulation: A Comprehensive Review

Tobacco regulation has been a major component of health policy in the developed world since the UK Royal College of Physicians' and the US Surgeon General's reports in the 1960s. Such regulation, which has intensified in the past two decades, includes cigarette taxation, place-based smoking bans in areas ranging from bars and restaurants to workplaces, and regulations designed to make tobacco products less desirable. More recently, the availability of alternative products, most notably e-cigarettes, has increased dramatically, and these products are just starting to be regulated. Despite an extensive body of research on tobacco regulations, there remains substantial debate regarding their effectiveness, and ultimately, their impact on economic welfare. We provide the first comprehensive review of the state of research in the economics of tobacco regulation in two decades.

Circumstances Around Cigarette Use After Enforced Abstinence From Smoking in an American Prison

OBJECTIVES

Most adults return to smoking after enforced tobacco abstinence when incarcerated in US prisons. Little is known about the specific relapse triggers on reentry. This study examines situational, affective, and motivational antecedents of return to smoking immediately after release from a tobacco-free prison.

METHODS

Assessments were administered before release and 1 and 7 days after release to 190 incarcerated adults who were smokers before incarceration. Those reporting smoking within 7 days after release were asked about circumstances surrounding their first cigarette.

RESULTS

Two-thirds reported smoking in the 7 days after release (76% of those in the first day) with the first cigarette smoked 21 hours after release on average. Smoking occurred more quickly for women than men and for those who planned to smoke after release (P values from 0.05 to 0.001). Forty-one percent of participants smoked while waiting for a ride or on the way home, 68% were given their first cigarette, 28% reported first smoking when reuniting with others, 42% first smoked with smokers, and 26% first smoked as celebration. The moods most reported before smoking were happy (60%) or excited (41.5%). Factors reported that could have prevented smoking were avoiding other smokers (27%), avoiding stress (16%), not drinking/using drugs (12%), and not having access to cigarettes (11%).

CONCLUSIONS

High rates of return to smoking occurred rapidly when around other smokers, using other substances, and in a positive mood. Interventions that focus specifically on these factors and can be immediately accessed upon release are required to help sustain people's desired abstinence.

Impacts of local public smoking bans on smoking behaviors and tobacco smoke exposure

This paper examines the immediate and long-term effects of public smoking bans on smoking prevalence, smoking regularity, smoking intensity, and secondhand tobacco smoke exposure. We supplement the extensive literature on the effects of various types of tobacco control legislation on smoking behavior in developed countries by studying the provincial smoking bans and more recent national ban of a middle-income country, Argentina. We focus on the difference between full and partial smoking bans, and take advantage of the time and province variation in ban implementation in order to determine the causal effects of each type of ban. We find that full bans reduce national smoking prevalence over time, especially among younger demographic groups, but have no significant impact on intensity of smoking among smokers. Full bans also benefit nonsmokers, as they are associated with a significant reduction in environmental tobacco smoke exposure. Partial bans do not significantly impact smoking prevalence, and are found to increase smoking intensity among individuals who smoke every day. These findings provide support for ratification of full bans by all provinces according to the National Tobacco Control Law of 2011.

Compensating for academic loss: Online learning and student performance during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to widespread school shutdowns, with many continuing distance education via online-learning platforms. We here estimate the causal effects of online education on student exam performance using administrative data from Chinese Middle Schools. Taking a difference-in-differences approach, we find that receiving online education during the COVID-19 lockdown improved student academic results by 0.22 of a standard deviation, relative to pupils without learning support from their school. Not all online education was equal: students who were given recorded online lessons from external higher-quality teachers had higher exam scores than those whose lessons were recorded by teachers from their own school. The educational benefits of distance learning were the same for rural and urban students, but the exam performance of students who used a computer for online education was better than those who used a smartphone. Last, while everyone except the very-best students performed better with online learning, it was low achievers who benefited from teacher quality.

The effect of increased cost-sharing on low-value service use

We examine the effect of a value-based insurance design (VBID) program implemented at a large public employer in the state of Oregon. The program substantially increased cost-sharing for several healthcare services likely to be of low value for most patients: diagnostic services (e.g., imaging services) and surgeries (e.g., spinal surgeries for pain). Using a difference-in-differences design coupled with granular, administrative health insurance claims data over the period 2008-2012, we estimate the change in low-value service use among beneficiaries before and after program implementation relative to a comparison group not exposed to the VBID. Our findings suggest that the VBID significantly reduced the use of targeted services, with an implied elasticity of demand of -0.22. We find no evidence that the VBID led to substitution to non-targeted services or increased overall healthcare costs. However, we also observe no evidence that the program led to cost-savings.

Impact of tobacco control interventions on smoking initiation, cessation, and prevalence: a systematic review

This article investigates the effects of tobacco control policies on smoking initiation, cessation and prevalence by examining the papers published in the last 5 years. Twenty-one articles have been selected by two authors and sorted by four types of tobacco control: tobacco prices, anti-smoking campaigns for young people, mass media intervention and public smoking bans. Price/tax increase has deterrent effect on smoking initiation but does not promote smoking cessation; intervention on young people could reduce the smoking initiation if carried out at an early age and if acted on social skills and with peer-led approach, as opposed to restraining measures which hare generally easily circumvented by young people. The mass media campaigns showed positive effect on attempts to quit among smokers if carried forward over time and by involving multiple communication channels (TV, internet, radio). The bans in public have little effect on smoking cessation but could improve the overall well-being of non-smokers. Heterogeneous results have been described by different studies probably because of different research methodologies, cultural aspects and the really effective implementation of the rules for each country. In conclusion, comprehensive tobacco control interventions to reduce smoking prevalence and modify the smoking behavior are recommended. Moreover, the use of e-cigarettes and heat-not-burn (HnB) products, as possible helping tool for smoke cessation, currently remains controversial.

The effect of outdoor smoking ban: Evidence from Korea

To address exposure to secondhand smoke, which is highly prevalent in Korea, local governments have implemented smoking bans at open public places (parks, bus stops, and school zones) since 2011. Exploiting temporal and spatial variation in the implementation dates of these bans, this study estimates their causal effects on individual smoking behavior. The individual-level longitudinal data from the 2009-2017 Korean Labor and Income Panel Study are linked to the smoking ban legislation information from the National Law Information Center. I find robust evidence that outdoor smoking bans increased the probability of making a quit attempt by 16%. This effect appears immediately after a ban goes into effect and lasts for three or more years. People who spend more time outdoors are more likely to change smoking behavior. I also find heterogeneity in effects across the amount of monetary penalty. Whereas the policy change did not affect the prevalence of smoking overall, higher penalties had stronger impacts on reducing the intensity of smoking and increasing the propensity to try to quit.

The impact of tobacco control policies on smoking initiation in eleven European countries

We investigate the effect of tobacco control policies on smoking initiation in eleven European countries. Based on individual data about age of onset of smoking, we use hazard rate models to study smoking initiation. Thus, we are able to take into account observed and unobserved personal characteristics as well as the effect of the introduction of a variety of tobacco control policies including price and and non-price policies, i.e., bans on tobacco advertisements, smoke-free air regulation, health warnings on packages of cigarettes, and treatment programs to help smokers quit smoking. We find that higher tobacco prices have a negative effect on the initiation into smoking for males but not for females. We find no effect of non-price tobacco control policies on smoking initiation.

Can a smoking ban save your heart?

This paper evaluates the causal effect of environmental tobacco exposure on health by exploiting the time and geographical variation in public-place smoking bans implemented in Switzerland between 2007 and 2011. We use administrative data on hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction, which allow to measure the short-run effects of the policy on an objective metric of health. We show that the incidence of acute myocardial infarction decreases by approximately 8% immediately after implementation of the law with large heterogeneity across regions. Our results indicate that the policy was effective in reducing the negative externality of smoking with potential spillovers on health inequality.

Smoking ban and health at birth: Evidence from Hungary

In 2012, smoking restrictions were extended to hospitality venues in Hungary. Women working in bars and restaurants were primarily affected by the intervention. In this research, we analyze the effect of this smoking ban on the outcomes of their pregnancies. Using individual live birth, fetal loss, and infant mortality registry data, we examine the probability of live birth, indicators of health at birth, and the probability of death in the first year of life. We apply a difference-in-differences framework and show that the smoking ban has improved health at birth. We observed birth weight to increase by 56 g (95% CI: 4.2 to 106.8) and gestation length by 0.19 weeks (95% CI: 0.02 to 0.36). Due to the ban, the probability of being born with very low and low birth weight has decreased by 1.2 and 2.2 percentage points, respectively (95% CI: -0.2 to -2.2 and 0.06 to -4.4), and we see a 0.9 percentage points reduction in the chance of being born very preterm (95% CI: -0.03 to -1.9). We also observe a decrease in the probability of being born with a low Ponderal index (decrease of 4.1 percentage points, 95% CI: -0.7 to -7.5). Performing a series of robustness and placebo tests, we provide evidence that supports the causal interpretation of our results. We also show that the ban was more beneficial for newborns of parents with low educational attainment and at the bottom of the fetal health endowment distribution.

Hospital-Level Changes in Adult ICU Bed Supply in the United States

OBJECTIVES

Although the number of intensive care beds in the United States is increasing, little is known about the hospitals responsible for this growth. We sought to better characterize national growth in intensive care beds by identifying hospital-level factors associated with increasing numbers of intensive care beds over time.

DESIGN

We performed a repeated-measures time series analysis of hospital-level intensive care bed supply using data from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

SETTING

All United States acute care hospitals with adult intensive care beds over the years 1996-2011.

PATIENTS

None.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

We described the number of beds, teaching status, ownership, intensive care occupancy, and urbanicity for each hospital in each year of the study. We then examined the relationship between increasing intensive care beds and these characteristics, controlling for other factors. The study included 4,457 hospitals and 55,865 hospital-years. Overall, the majority of intensive care bed growth occurred in teaching hospitals (net, +13,471 beds; 72.1% of total growth), hospitals with 250 or more beds (net, +18,327 beds; 91.8% of total growth), and hospitals in the highest quartile of occupancy (net, +10,157 beds; 54.0% of total growth). In a longitudinal multivariable model, larger hospital size, teaching status, and high intensive care occupancy were associated with subsequent-year growth. Furthermore, the effects of hospital size and teaching status were modified by occupancy: the greatest odds of increasing ICU beds were in hospitals with 500 or more beds in the highest quartile of occupancy (adjusted odds ratio, 18.9; 95% CI, 14.0-25.5; p < 0.01) and large teaching hospitals in the highest quartile of occupancy (adjusted odds ratio, 7.3; 95% CI, 5.3-9.9; p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Increasingly, intensive care bed expansion in the United States is occurring in larger hospitals and teaching centers, particularly following a year with high ICU occupancy.