Whither hepatocellular carcinoma screening?

Economic evaluation of hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance in chronic hepatitis B patients with virological remission

BACKGROUND

Subsequent risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) persists in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with virological remission. We aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of HCC surveillance in those patients and determine appropriate age to commence or discontinue surveillance.

METHODS

We developed an individual-based state transition model, simulating the advancement of HCC in CHB patients with virological remission. We used this model to compare the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and long-term health outcomes of biannual or annual HCC surveillance for varying durations with no surveillance.

RESULTS

For compensated cirrhosis patients with CHB, biannual surveillance was not cost-effective for all age groups, while annual surveillance was cost-effective for patients aged 55 to 70 (ICER USD 28,076 / quality-adjusted life years [QALY] gained), which detected 176 additional early HCC cases in a 100,000-person cohort compared to no surveillance. In CHB patients with advanced fibrosis, annual surveillance for patients aged 40 to 75 was the most cost-effective strategy (ICER USD 4,984/QALY gained), which detected 289 additional early HCC per 100,000 patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Annual surveillance for patients with compensated cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis was a more cost-effective option that demonstrated substantial economic benefits, being slightly less effective than biannual surveillance at a significantly lower cost, providing insights for professionals in evaluating HCC surveillance among high-risk patients in China.

Duration and cost-effectiveness of hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance in hepatitis C patients after viral eradication

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Successful treatment of chronic hepatitis C with oral direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) leads to virological cure, however, the subsequent risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) persists. Our objective was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of biannual surveillance for HCC in patients cured of hepatitis C and the optimal age to stop surveillance.

METHODS

We developed a microsimulation model of the natural history of HCC in individuals with hepatitis C and advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis who achieved virological cure with oral DAAs. We used published data on HCC incidence, tumor progression, real-world HCC surveillance adherence, and costs and utilities of different health states. We compared biannual HCC surveillance using ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein for varying durations of surveillance (from 5 years to lifetime) vs. no surveillance.

RESULTS

In virologically cured patients with cirrhosis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of biannual surveillance remained below $150,000 per additional quality-adjusted life year (QALY) (range: $79,500-$94,800) when surveillance was stopped at age 70, irrespective of the starting age (40-65). Compared with no surveillance, surveillance detected 130 additional HCCs in 'very early'/early stage and yielded 51 additional QALYs per 1,000 patients with cirrhosis. In virologically cured patients with advanced fibrosis, the ICER of biannual surveillance remained below $150,000/QALY (range: $124,600-$129,800) when surveillance was stopped at age 60, irrespective of the starting age (40-50). Compared with no surveillance, surveillance detected 24 additional HCCs in 'very early'/early stage and yielded 12 additional QALYs per 1,000 patients with advanced fibrosis.

CONCLUSION

Biannual surveillance for HCC in patients cured of hepatitis C is cost-effective until the age of 70 for patients with cirrhosis, and until the age of 60 for patients with stable advanced fibrosis.

LAY SUMMARY

Individuals who are cured of hepatitis C using oral antiviral drugs remain at risk of developing liver cancer. The value of lifelong screening for liver cancer in these individuals is not known. By simulating the life course of hepatitis C cured individuals, we found that ultrasound-based biannual screening for liver cancer is cost-effective up to age 70 in those with cirrhosis and up to age 60 in those with stable advanced fibrosis.

Current status of image-based surveillance in hepatocellular carcinoma

Although the overall prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains poor, curative treatment may improve the survival of patients diagnosed at an early stage through surveillance. Accordingly, ultrasonography (US)-based HCC surveillance programs proposed in international society guidelines are now being implemented and regularly updated based on the latest evidence to improve their efficacy. Recently, other imaging modalities such as magnetic resonance imaging have shown potential as alternative surveillance tools based on individualized risk stratification. In this review article, we describe the current status of US-based surveillance for HCC and summarize the supporting evidence. We also discuss alternative surveillance imaging modalities that are currently being studied to validate their diagnostic performance and cost-effectiveness.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease increases the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis awaiting liver transplants

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Many patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis also have diabetes, obesity, or insulin resistance-mediated steatosis, but little is known about how these disorders affect the severity of liver disease. We analyzed the prevalence and prognostic implications of metabolic risk factors (MRFs) such as overweight, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension in patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis awaiting liver transplants.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study of 110 patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis (77% male; mean age, 55 y; 71% with >6 mo of abstinence) who received liver transplants at a single center in Paris, France, from 2000 through 2013. We collected data on previous exposure to MRFs, steatosis (>10% in the explant), and histologically confirmed hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

RESULTS

HCC was detected in explants from 29 patients (26%). Steatosis was detected in explants from 47 patients (70% were abstinent for ≥6 mo); 50% had a history of overweight or type 2 diabetes. Fifty-two patients (47%) had a history of MRFs and therefore were at risk for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. A higher proportion of patients with MRF had HCC than those without MRF (46% vs 9%; P < .001). A previous history of overweight or type 2 diabetes significantly increased the risk for HCC (odds ratio, 6.23; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.47-15.76, and odds ratio, 4.63; 95% CI, 1.87-11.47, respectively; P < .001). MRF, but not steatosis, was associated with the development of HCC (odds ratio, 11.76; 95% CI, 2.60-53; P = .001) independent of age, sex, amount of alcohol intake, or severity of liver disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis who received transplants frequently also had nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. MRFs, particularly overweight, obesity, and type 2 diabetes, significantly increase the risk of HCC.