A Prognostic Strategy Based on Stage of Cirrhosis and HVPG to Improve Risk Stratification After Variceal Bleeding

Development and validation of a score model for predicting the risk of first esophagogastric variceal hemorrhage and mortality in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

AIMS

Esophagogastric variceal bleeding, especially first variceal hemorrhage, represents a challenging complication in the management of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and its presence significantly herald poor patient prognosis. The stratification system for the risk of first variceal hemorrhage and mortality has not been validated in patients with HCC. We aimed to develop and validate a simple score for the prediction of initial variceal bleeding and mortality in patients with HCC.

METHODS

This multicenter retrospective-prospective study included HCC patients at three tertiary hospitals in China from January 2016 to December 2023. The bleeding following endoscopy for hepatocellular carcinoma (BFE-HCC) score was constructed by the least absolute contraction and selection operator (LASSO) regression combined with multivariate logistic regression analysis. The performance of the score model was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the calibration curve, and the decision curve analysis (DCA). Finally, the of the results was further verified in an independent external cohort.

RESULTS

We recruited 351 patients from three centers (median age 56 years, 85.5% male and 83.5% with cirrhosis), 56.6% patients presented high-risk (HR) varices, and 35% patients experienced variceal bleeding. Multivariate logistic analysis revealed that the presence of cirrhosis, a history of acute variceal bleeding (AVB), Child-Pugh score, ALBI score, tumor size and portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT) Vp4 were independent predictors of HR varices. The BFE-HCC is composed of six variables: white blood cell count, HR varices, Child-Pugh score, HCC therapy modality, Vp4, and tumor stage. The area under the curve (AUC) of BFE-HCC was 0.82, and the calibration plots and decision curve analysis exhibited outstanding performance compared with the MELD, ALBI, and Child-Pugh scores. In addition, Patients with BFE-HCC ≥ 4 were at increased risk of mortality (P<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The BFE-HCC score is hopeful to predict initial variceal bleeding and mortality in patients with HCC, offering a promising tool for prognostic assessment and treatment decisions.

A novel noninvasive assessment of portal pressure from computational biofluid mechanics in patients with portal hypertension

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

To introduce and assess a novel method for portal pressure measurement based on biofluid mechanics in portal hypertensive patients undergoing surgery.

METHODS

The research was a multi-center, retrospective study, conducted on patients who underwent surgery and measurement of free portal pressure (FPP). There were 118 patients included and 21 patients excluded due to the failure or poor results of Doppler ultrasound, and 97 patients were screened. We used patients' CT images, Doppler ultrasound results of the portal system, blood density and viscosity to reconstruct their portal system and simulate its internal blood flow. According to the patient's physical property, geometry, and boundary conditions, the Navier-Stokes equations were solved by FLUENT software, and virtual free portal pressure (vFPP) was calculated. Finally, the Bland-Altman Limits of Agreement, intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), and the Lin's concordance correlation coefficient were performed to evaluate the numerical correlation between the vFPP and FPP.

RESULTS

All patients enrolled in this study underwent the surgery, and the FPP of patients was measured during the surgery, with a mean FPP of 22.8 ± 3.3 mmHg (range: 13-33 mmHg). Meanwhile, according to computational biofluid mechanics, all patients' vFPP was calculated. Then, we further explored whether there was a close relationship between vFPP and FPP in the whole population. For the analysis of Bland-Altman Limits of Agreement, the mean value of difference was - 0.1569 (95% CI: - 0.4305 to 0.1167); lower limit of agreement: - 2.8176 (95% CI: - 3.2868 to - 2.3484); upper limit of agreement: 2.5038 (95% CI: 2.0346 to 2.9730). The ICC was 0.9215 (95% CI: 0.8848 to 0.9468). Furthermore, the Lin's concordance correlation coefficient showed a numerical correlation between the vFPP and FPP, which was 0.9205 (95% CI: 0.8840 to 0.9459). All these results confirmed that our vFPP model could provide an accurate prediction of FPP in patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The vFPP of patients calculated by computational biofluid mechanics was significantly correlated with the FPP of portal hypertensive patients, which would be a novel, non-invasive, and accurate method for the assessment of portal pressure in surgical patients.

Correlation and consistency analysis between various indirect portal pressure gradients and actual portal pressure gradient

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the correlation and consistency between hepatic venous pressure gradient(F-HVPG) calculated as the wedged hepatic venous pressure (WHVP) minus free hepatic venous pressure (FHVP), I-HVPG calculated as WHVP minus inferior vena cava pressure (IVCP) in the hepatic segment, and portal pressure gradient (PPG).

METHODS

Data were collected from 112 patients with portal hypertension undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) along with HVPG measurement. FHVP, IVCP, WHVP, and portal venous pressure (PVP) were collected intraoperatively. Pearson's correlation and Bland-Altman method were used to assess correlation and consistency.

RESULTS

A total of 112 patients were retrospectively collected. The correlation coefficient (r) values (p < 0.001) between FHVP and IVCP, WHVP and PVP, F-HVPG and I-HVPG, F-HVPG and PPG, I-HVPG and PPG were 0.835, 0.717, 0.946, 0.667 and 0.698, respectively; the determination coefficient (R2) values were 0.697, 0.514, 0.895, 0.445 and 0.487, respectively. Bland-Altman plots showed that F-HVPG and I-HVPG had the narrowest 95% limits of agreement. Among patients with FHVP-IVCP > 2 mmHg, the (r) values (p < 0.05) between F-HVPG and I-HVPG, F-HVPG and PPG, I-HVPG and PPG were 0.907, 0.648 and 0.807, respectively; the (R2) values were 0.822, 0.420 and 0.651, respectively. Bland-Altman plots showed that I-HVPG had the narrower 95% limits of agreement with PPG.

CONCLUSION

F-HVPG and I-HVPG demonstrated high correlation and consistency. I-HVPG consistently correlates more closely with PPG than F-HVPG, both in the overall cohort and in patients with FHVP-IVCP > 2 mmHg. These results suggest that I-HVPG may serve as a more reliable alternative. Due to the significant underestimation of the PPG, HVPG measurement should not be used to exclude patients from a TIPS intervention.

Non-invasive predictors of the first episode of bleeding from esophageal varices in patients with liver cirrhosis awaiting transplantation

Background. To date, various non-invasive techniques or tests have been proposed that can identify a high risk of bleeding from esophageal varices. Despite a significant number of studies revealing the presence of venous varices as a likely factor for the development of bleeding due to their rupture, data on predictors of the first episode of bleeding are few and often contradictory.

Objective. To determine non-invasive independent predictors of the first episode of bleeding in patients waiting for liver transplantation.

Material and methods. A comparative retrospective study was conducted in 729 patients with decompensated cirrhosis who were on the waiting list for liver transplantation. We analyzed demographic, clinical and laboratory parameters, MELD-Na, Child-Turcotte-Pugh scores, FIB-4 Index, APRI, AST/ALT ratio; we determined the liver stiffness, spleen diameter, studied the liver stiffness-spleen diameter to platelet ratio risk score (LSPS model), platelet count/spleen diameter ratio in the groups of patients with the first episode of bleeding (n=334) and without it (n=395). The accumulated risks in the compared groups were assessed using a model of proportional hazards (Cox regression) in univariate and multivariate analysis.

Results. During 48 months of follow-up from the time of patient placement on the liver transplant waiting list, primary bleeding events developed in 45.8%. The risk of developing the first episode of bleeding progressively increased with LSPS >3.5 and reached maximum values in patients awaiting liver transplantation within 48 months of inclusion in the waiting list, while with LSPS <3.5 the risk was minimal.

Conclusion. Independent non-invasive predictors of the first episode of bleeding are a high level of AST, a high fibrosis index (FIB-4), a decrease in the ratio of platelet count/spleen diameter and a high LSPS value. Their application in clinical practice will improve the results of dispensary and screening examinations of patients with portal hypertension.

Predictive value of hepatic venous pressure gradient in cirrhotic portal vein thrombosis development

BACKGROUND & AIMS

There are lots of risk factors reported for cirrhotic portal vein thrombosis (PVT) development, however, the relationship between hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) and PVT development remains unclear.

METHODS

The clinical outcomes of cirrhotic patients who had no PVT and underwent HVPG measurement at baseline between March 2018 and March 2022 were analyzed retrospectively. Screening for non-tumoral PVT development was implemented by contrast-enhanced computed tomography and/or magnetic resonance imaging every 6-12 months.

RESULTS

Eighty-two cirrhotic patients were evaluated over a follow-up period. Of these, 12 patients (14.6%) experienced the development of PVT. The occurrence of non-tumoral PVT at one, two, and three years were 6.6%, 11.7%, and 22.2% respectively. HVPG (p=0.038;HR 1.07;95%CI 1.00-1.14) and alcohol liver disease (ALD) (p=0.019;HR 4.20;95%CI 1.27-13.89) were independently associated with a high PVT risk. The cutoff value of HVPG was 17.52 mmHg. The cumulative incidence of PVT differed significantly among groups stratified by HVPG thresholds of 16mmHg (P=0.011). The sensitivity and specificity of HVPG≥16mmHg in predicting PVT development were 100.0% and 35.7%.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with liver cirrhosis, the value of HVPG was the independent predictive factor of PVT development. Screening for PVT was recommended during follow-up in patients with HVPG≥16 mmHg.

Stratified analysis of the correlation between wedged hepatic venous pressure and portal venous pressure in patients with portal hypertension

To evaluate the differences in the agreement between wedged hepatic venous pressure (WHVP) and portal venous pressure (PVP) at different hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) levels to identify specific HVPG thresholds where WHVP can reliably estimate PVP, thus enhancing the accuracy of risk stratification and treatment decision-making for portal hypertension (PHT) patients. A multicenter study of 616 patients with PHT from three centers was stratified into five groups by their HVPG: HVPG < 12 (group A), 12 ≤ HVPG < 16 mmHg (group B), 16 ≤ HVPG < 20 mmHg (group C), 20 ≤ HVPG < 24 mmHg (group D), HVPG ≥ 24 mmHg (group E). Concordance was analyzed using Pearson's correlation coefficient (R), the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), and Bland‒Altman analysis in each HVPG stratum. Correlation and agreement between WHVP and PVP varied by HVPG group. Highest agreement was observed in the range of 20 ≤ HVPG < 24 mmHg. (R = 0.55, ICC = 0.68). The proportion of patients with a discrepancy between WHVP and PVP that was greater than 10% of the PVP value was highest in group A (95.7%) and lowest in group D (48.4%). Overestimation of PVP was more common in group E (44.5%), and underestimation of PVP was more common in group A (94.6%). This study does not confirm the usefulness of hepatic vein pressure measurements to predict the PVP and PPG. The means of WHVP and PVP were significantly different in ranges A, B, C, and E.

Influence of further decompensation on survival across clinical stages of decompensated cirrhosis: The role of portal hypertension and HVPG changes

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Decompensated-cirrhosis encompasses several stages with different prognosis, such as bleeding, ascites and bleeding-plus-ascites. Development of further-decompensation worsens survival, while non-selective β-blockers (NSBBs) can modify the risk. However, how this applies to each stage is uncertain. We aimed to investigate, in each stage of decompensated-cirrhosis, the influence of further-decompensation on mortality and whether changes in portal-pressure (HVPG) under NSBBs influence these outcomes.

METHODS

Patients with variceal bleeding were consecutively included differentiating those with bleeding-alone from those who also had ascites. Patients with ascites and high-risk varices referred for primary-prophylaxis were also investigated. A baseline haemodynamic study was performed and was repeated after 1-3-months under NSBBs. Outcomes were investigated by competing-risk.

RESULTS

Totally 103 patients had bleeding-alone, 186 bleeding-plus-ascites and 187 ascites-alone. Mean follow-up was 32-months (IQR, 12-60). Patients with bleeding-plus-ascites had higher HVPG and were more hyperdynamic than patients with ascites-alone and these than those with bleeding-alone. At each stage, the mortality risk was more than twice in patients developing further-decompensation vs. those without (p < .001). In each stage, HVPG-decrease under NSBBs showed better discrimination to predict further-decompensation than the baseline MELD, Child-Pugh or HVPG, by time-dependent ROC-curves (c-statistic >70%). At each stage, patients without HVPG-decreases, either ≥10% or ≥20% from the baseline, had higher risk of further-decompensation (sHR from 2.43 to 6.73, p < .01) and worse survival.

CONCLUSIONS

In each stage of decompensated cirrhosis, mortality risk significantly and very markedly increase with further-decompensation. HVPG-non-response to NSBBs may adequately stratify the risk of further decompensation and death, in each stage. This suggests potential benefit with pre-emptive therapies in HVPG-non-responders at each-stage.

The prognostic evaluation of ALBI score in endoscopic treatment of esophagogastric varices hemorrhage in liver cirrhosis

To analyze the independent risk factors for recurrent bleeding and death within 1 year after endoscopic treatment of esophagogastric varices hemorrhage (EGVB) in patients with liver cirrhosis, and to validate the predictive value of ALBI score for recurrent bleeding and death within 1 year after endoscopic treatment of EGVB in patients with liver cirrhosis. A total of 338 patients with EGVB who received endoscopic treatment for the first time in the Department of Gastroenterology, First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from January 1, 2016 to March 1, 2020 were selected. A database was established to analyze the patients' demographic data, surgical variables and postoperative outcomes. All patients were contacted and followed up to verify the predictive value of ALBI score for recurrent bleeding and mortality. 130 patients had rebleeding within 1 year after surgery (38.5%). 66 patients died within 1 year after surgery (19.5%). Patients with ALBI grade 3 had significantly higher rebleeding and mortality rates than those with grades 1 and 2. The AUC was used to compare the predictive value of the four scores for rebleeding and mortality within one year after endoscopic surgery. Both ALBI scores had the largest AUC. The ALBI score has certain predictive value for rebleeding and mortality within 1 year after endoscopic therapy in patients with cirrhotic EGVB.

Influence of subcutaneous adipose tissue index on prognosis in cirrhotic patients following endoscopic therapy: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The relation of adipose tissue depletion with prognostic outcome of variceal bleeding among cirrhotic patients is still inconclusive. The present work explored whether adipose tissue, which was measured based on computed tomography (CT), was valuable for analyzing rebleeding and mortality among patients with variceal bleeding who had undergone endoscopic therapy.

METHODS

The study encompassed cirrhotic patients who underwent endoscopic therapy to prevent variceal rebleeding between January 2016 and October 2022. The L3-level CT images were obtained. Besides, impacts of subcutaneous adipose tissue index (SATI), visceral adipose tissue index (VATI), as well as total adipose tissue index (TATI) on rebleeding and mortality among cirrhotic patients following endoscopic therapy were examined.

RESULTS

In this work, our median follow-up period was 31 months. Among those adipose tissue indexes, only SATI exhibited an independent relation to higher rebleeding (HR 0.981, 95% CI, 0.971-0.991, p < 0.001) and mortality (HR 0.965, 95% CI, 0.944-0.986, p = 0.001) risks. Upon multivariate Cox regression, low SATI (male < 30.15 cm2/m2, female < 39.82 cm2/m2) was independently linked to higher rebleeding risk (HR 2.511, 95% CI, 1.604-3.932, p < 0.001) and increased mortality risk (HR 3.422, 95% CI, 1.489-7.864, p = 0.004) after adjusting for other predictors. Furthermore, subgroups were created based on using nonselective β-blockers (NSBBs), demonstrating that quantitatively assessing SATI exerts a vital role in evaluating rebleeding incidence in patients with or without NSBB therapy.

CONCLUSION

This study underscores the potential of quantifying SATI as a means for achieving a more accurate risk classification for individual patients and identifying patients that can gain more benefits from nutritional intervention.

Predicting survival in patients with 'non-high-risk' acute variceal bleeding receiving β-blockers+ligation to prevent re-bleeding

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is the treatment of choice for high-risk acute variceal bleeding (AVB; i.e., Child-Turcotte-Pugh [CTP] B8-9+active bleeding/C10-13). Nevertheless, some 'non-high-risk' patients have poor outcomes despite the combination of non-selective beta-blockers and endoscopic variceal ligation for secondary prophylaxis. We investigated prognostic factors for re-bleeding and mortality in 'non-high-risk' AVB to identify subgroups who may benefit from more potent treatments (i.e., TIPS) to prevent further decompensation and mortality.

METHODS

A total of 2,225 adults with cirrhosis and variceal bleeding were prospectively recruited at 34 centres between 2011-2015; for the purpose of this study, case definitions and information on prognostic indicators at index AVB and on day 5 were further refined in low-risk patients, of whom 581 (without failure to control bleeding or contraindications to TIPS) who were managed by non-selective beta-blockers/endoscopic variceal ligation, were finally included. Patients were followed for 1 year.

RESULTS

Overall, 90 patients (15%) re-bled and 70 (12%) patients died during follow-up. Using clinical routine data, no meaningful predictors of re-bleeding were identified. However, re-bleeding (included as a time-dependent co-variable) increased mortality, even after accounting for differences in patient characteristics (adjusted cause-specific hazard ratio: 2.57; 95% CI 1.43-4.62; p = 0.002). A nomogram including CTP, creatinine, and sodium measured at baseline accurately (concordance: 0.752) stratified the risk of death.

CONCLUSION

The majority of 'non-high-risk' patients with AVB have an excellent prognosis, if treated according to current recommendations. However, about one-fifth of patients, i.e. those with CTP ≥8 and/or high creatinine levels or hyponatremia, have a considerable risk of death within 1 year of the index bleed. Future clinical trials should investigate whether elective TIPS placement reduces mortality in these patients.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement improves outcomes in high-risk acute variceal bleeding; nevertheless, some 'non-high-risk' patients have poor outcomes despite the combination of non-selective beta-blockers and endoscopic variceal ligation. This is the first large-scale study investigating prognostic factors for re-bleeding and mortality in 'non-high-risk' acute variceal bleeding. While no clinically meaningful predictors were identified for re-bleeding, we developed a nomogram integrating baseline Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, creatinine, and sodium to stratify mortality risk. Our study paves the way for future clinical trials evaluating whether elective transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement improves outcomes in presumably 'non-high-risk' patients who are identified as being at increased risk of death.

Hepatic venous pressure gradient: Inaccurately estimates portal venous pressure gradient in alcoholic cirrhosis and portal hypertension

BACKGROUND

Portal hypertension (PHT) in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis causes a range of clinical symptoms, including gastroesophageal varices and ascites. The hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG), which is easier to measure, has replaced the portal venous pressure gradient (PPG) as the gold standard for diagnosing PHT in clinical practice. Therefore, attention should be paid to the correlation between HVPG and PPG.

AIM

To explore the correlation between HVPG and PPG in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis and PHT.

METHODS

Between January 2017 and June 2020, 134 patients with alcoholic cirrhosis and PHT who met the inclusion criteria underwent various pressure measurements during transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt procedures. Correlations were assessed using Pearson's correlation coefficient to estimate the correlation coefficient (r) and determination coefficient (R2). Bland-Altman plots were constructed to further analyze the agreement between the measurements. Disagreements were analyzed using paired t tests, and P values < 0.05 were considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

In this study, the correlation coefficient (r) and determination coefficient (R2) between HVPG and PPG were 0.201 and 0.040, respectively (P = 0.020). In the 108 patients with no collateral branch, the average wedged hepatic venous pressure was lower than the average portal venous pressure (30.65 ± 8.17 vs. 33.25 ± 6.60 mmHg, P = 0.002). Hepatic collaterals were identified in 26 cases with balloon occlusion hepatic venography (19.4%), while the average PPG was significantly higher than the average HVPG (25.94 ± 7.42 mmHg vs 9.86 ± 7.44 mmHg; P < 0.001). The differences between HVPG and PPG < 5 mmHg in the collateral vs no collateral branch groups were three cases (11.54%) and 44 cases (40.74%), respectively.

CONCLUSION

In most patients, HVPG cannot accurately represent PPG. The formation of hepatic collaterals is a vital reason for the strong underestimation of HVPG.

Correlation between hepatic venous pressure gradient and portal pressure gradient in patients with autoimmune cirrhotic portal hypertension and collateral branches of the hepatic vein

AIM

To assess the correlation and agreement between hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) and portal pressure gradient (PPG) in patients with autoimmune liver diseases (ALD) and portal hypertension, and to investigate the extent to which hepatic vein collateralization affects the accuracy of this assessment.

METHODS

Ninety-eight patients with ALD between 2017 and 2021 who underwent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt with conventional and innovative 15 mL pressurized contrast were selected to measure wedged hepatic venous pressure (WHVP) and portal venous pressure and to calculate the HVPG and PPG. Pearson's correlation was used for correlation analysis between the two groups. Bland-Altman plots were plotted to estimate the agreement between paired pressures.

RESULTS

The r values of PPG and HVPG in the early, middle, late, and portal venous visualization were 0.404, 0.789, 0.807, and 0.830, respectively, and the R2 values were 0.163, 0.622, 0.651, and 0.690, respectively. The p value for the r and R2 values in the early group was 0.015, and the p values in the remaining groups were less than 0.001. Bland-Altman plots showed that patients in the portal venous visualization group had the narrowest 95% limits of agreement. The mean value of the difference was close to the zero-scale line.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with ALD, the correlation between the HVPG and PPG was good, and the later the collateral development, the better the correlation. Hepatic vein collateral was an essential factor in underestimating WHVP and HVPG, and the earlier the collateral appeared, the more obvious the underestimation.

An LSM Based Strategy is Comparable to HVPG Measurement to Predict Further Events in Patients with Cirrhosis with Variceal Bleeding as Their Index Decompensation

Background and aims

Limited data exist on strategies other than hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) estimation to predict future events in patients with cirrhosis presenting with variceal bleed (VB) but are otherwise compensated. We assessed whether liver stiffness measurement (LSM) during VB episode could accurately predict this risk.

Methods

Consecutive patients with cirrhosis with VB as their index decompensation event underwent HVPG and LSM estimation during the VB episode in this prospective study. New onset further decompensation events (ascites, VB, encephalopathy) was assessed over follow-up. The performance characteristics of postbleed LSM were compared with model for end stage liver disease (MELD) score and HVPG to predict future decompensation and were cross-validated.

Results

Mean age of the cohort (n = 68) was 44.2 years and alcohol-related liver disease (55.9%) was the most common etiology. Over a median follow-up of 14 (9-18) months, 18(26.4%) patients developed further decompensation with ascites being the most common event. Patients with further decompensation had a higher median postbleed LSM [60.5 kPa (53-70) vs. 25 kPa (18-34), P < 0.001], HVPG [ 19 mm Hg vs. 16 mmHg, P = 0.005], and MELD score [ 12.5 (11-14.7) vs. 10 (8-12) P < 0.001]. The area under receiver-operator characteristics curve for postbleed LSM [0.928 (95%CI: 0.868-0.988)] was higher than both HVPG [0.733(0.601-0.865), P = 0.003] and MELD score [0.776(0.664-0.889), P = 0.019] to predict further decompensation. Optimism-corrected c-statistic using MELD and postbleed LSM was similar to a combination of HVPG, MELD, and postbleed LSM.

Conclusion

Postbleed LSM is comparable to HVPG estimation in predicting further decompensation events in patients with otherwise compensated cirrhosis presenting with VB.

Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient Predicts Further Decompensation in Cirrhosis Patients with Acute Esophageal Variceal Bleeding

BACKGROUND

The role of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) in predicting further decompensation in cirrhosis patients with acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is not known. We aimed to evaluate the role of HVPG in predicting further decompensation in cirrhosis patients with AVB Methods: In this prospective study, 145 patients with cirrhosis with esophageal or gastric AVB were included. HVPG was measured on the day of the AVB. Decompensating events occurring after 42-days of AVB were considered further decompensation.

RESULTS

The median age of the study cohort was 44 years; 88.3% males. The predominant etiology of cirrhosis was alcohol (46.2%). Overall, 40 (27.6%) patients developed further decompensation during median follow-up of 296 days following AVB. Gastro intestinal bleeding n = 27 (18.6%) and new-onset/worsening ascites n = 20 (13.8%) were the most common decompensating events. According to the multivariate model, HVPG was an independent predictor of any further decompensation in esophageal AVB patients but not in gastric variceal bleeding patients. HVPG cut-off of ≥16 mmHg predicted further decompensation in the esophageal AVB. However, HVPG was not an independent predictor of mortality.

CONCLUSION

HVPG measured during an episode of acute variceal hemorrhage from esophageal varices predicts further decompensating events in cirrhosis patients.

Non-invasive model for predicting high-risk esophageal varices based on liver and spleen stiffness

BACKGROUND

Acute bleeding due to esophageal varices (EVs) is a life-threatening complication in patients with cirrhosis. The diagnosis of EVs is mainly through upper gastrointestinal endoscopy, but the discomfort, contraindications and complications of gastrointestinal endoscopic screening reduce patient compliance. According to the bleeding risk of EVs, the Baveno VI consensus divides varices into high bleeding risk EVs (HEVs) and low bleeding risk EVs (LEVs). We sought to identify a non-invasive prediction model based on spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) as an alternative to EVs screening.

AIM

To develop a safe, simple and non-invasive model to predict HEVs in patients with viral cirrhosis and identify patients who can be exempted from upper gastrointestinal endoscopy.

METHODS

Data from 200 patients with viral cirrhosis were included in this study, with 140 patients as the modelling group and 60 patients as the external validation group, and the EVs types of patients were determined by upper gastrointestinal endoscopy and the Baveno VI consensus. Those patients were divided into the HEVs group (66 patients) and the LEVs group (74 patients). The effect of each parameter on HEVs was analyzed by univariate and multivariate analyses, and a non-invasive prediction model was established. Finally, the discrimination ability, calibration ability and clinical efficacy of the new model were verified in the modelling group and the external validation group.

RESULTS

Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that SSM and LSM were associated with the occurrence of HEVs in patients with viral cirrhosis. On this basis, logistic regression analysis was used to construct a prediction model: Ln [P/(1-P)] = -8.184 -0.228 × SSM + 0.642 × LSM. The area under the curve of the new model was 0.965. When the cut-off value was 0.27, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the model for predicting HEVs were 100.00%, 82.43%, 83.52%, and 100%, respectively. Compared with the four prediction models of liver stiffness-spleen diameter to platelet ratio score, variceal risk index, aspartate aminotransferase to alanine aminotransferase ratio, and Baveno VI, the established model can better predict HEVs in patients with viral cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION

Based on the SSM and LSM measured by transient elastography, we established a non-invasive prediction model for HEVs. The new model is reliable in predicting HEVs and can be used as an alternative to routine upper gastrointestinal endoscopy screening, which is helpful for clinical decision making.

Computed tomography imaging features to evaluate the severity of portal hypertension and predict the rebleeding risk after endoscopic treatment in cirrhotic patients with variceal hemorrhage

PURPOSE

To investigate the association of computed tomography (CT) imaging features and severity of portal hypertension (PH) and develop a nomogram to predict high-risk PH in cirrhotic patients with gastroesophageal variceal hemorrhage (GVH).

METHODS

The study retrospectively enrolled 158 cirrhotic patients with a history of endoscopic treatment for GVH. Hepatic vein pressure gradient (HVPG) was measured and the patients were classified into high-risk (HVPG > 16 mmHg) or low-risk (HVPG ≤ 16 mmHg) PH group. Pre-treatment CT features, including cavernous transformation of portal vein (CTPV), hilar periportal space (a distance between right portal vein and posterior edge of segment IV of the liver), and depth of right posterior hepatic notch sign (a sharp indentation in the right medial posterior liver surface), were evaluated. Risk factors associated with high-risk PH were analyzed, and a nomogram based on the imaging features was developed.

RESULTS

High-risk PH group showed a higher rebleeding rate after treatment than that of the low-risk (P = 0.029). Multivariate analysis indicated that larger hilar periportal space (P < 0.001), less frequencies of CTPV (P = 0.044) and deeper right posterior hepatic notch (P < 0.001) were independent risk factors associated with high-risk PH. A nomogram based on the three CT imaging features was established to predict high-risk PH with an excellent discrimination (c-statistic 0.854).

CONCLUSION

The nomogram based on CT features of hilar periportal space, depth of right posterior hepatic notch and CTPV can help to distinguish cirrhotic patients with high-risk PH, who are more vulnerable of variceal rebleeding after endoscopic treatment.

Short-term hepatocyte function and portal hypertension outcomes of sofosbuvir/velpatasvir for decompensated hepatitis C-related cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

It is unclear whether hepatocyte function and/or portal hypertension improves if a sustained virologic response (SVR) is achieved with direct-acting antivirals in patients with decompensated hepatitis C-related cirrhosis.

METHODS

We examined the safety and efficacy of a 12-week course of sofosbuvir/velpatasvir (SOF/VEL) in 20 patients with decompensated hepatitis C-related cirrhosis. We also investigated changes in the hepatocyte receptor index (LHL15) and blood clearance index (HH15) by Tc-99 m-galactosyl human serum albumin scintigraphy, liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by transient elastography, and hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) in patients who achieved an SVR at 24 weeks after treatment (SVR24).

RESULTS

One patient discontinued treatment because of rectal variceal hemorrhage, and 19 patients completed treatment. SVR24 was achieved in 17 patients (89%). Median LHL15 increased from 0.72 pre-treatment to 0.82 after SVR24 (p = 0.012), and median HH15 decreased from 0.82 pre-treatment to 0.76 after SVR24 (p = 0.010). The percentage of patients with LSM ≥ 20 kPa was 90% before treatment and remained at 90% after SVR24. However, the percentage with severe portal hypertension (defined as HVPG ≥ 12 mmHg) decreased from 92% pre-treatment to 58% after SVR24 (p = 0.046). Patients with a decreased HVPG from pre-treatment to after SVR24 had a smaller pre-treatment spleen volume than those with an increased HVPG (median, 252 vs. 537 mL, p = 0.028).

CONCLUSION

Achieving SVR24 with SOF/VEL treatment in patients with decompensated hepatitis C-related cirrhosis can be expected to improve hepatocyte function and portal hypertension on short-term follow-up.

Assessment of portal hypertension severity using machine learning models in patients with compensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In individuals with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD), the severity of portal hypertension (PH) determines the risk of decompensation. Invasive measurement of the hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) is the diagnostic gold standard for PH. We evaluated the utility of machine learning models (MLMs) based on standard laboratory parameters to predict the severity of PH in individuals with cACLD.

METHODS

A detailed laboratory workup of individuals with cACLD recruited from the Vienna cohort (NCT03267615) was utilised to predict clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH, i.e., HVPG ≥10 mmHg) and severe PH (i.e., HVPG ≥16 mmHg). The MLMs were then evaluated in individual external datasets and optimised in the merged cohort.

RESULTS

Among 1,232 participants with cACLD, the prevalence of CSPH/severe PH was similar in the Vienna (n = 163, 67.4%/35.0%) and validation (n = 1,069, 70.3%/34.7%) cohorts. The MLMs were based on 3 (3P: platelet count, bilirubin, international normalised ratio) or 5 (5P: +cholinesterase, +gamma-glutamyl transferase, +activated partial thromboplastin time replacing international normalised ratio) laboratory parameters. The MLMs performed robustly in the Vienna cohort. 5P-MLM had the best AUCs for CSPH (0.813) and severe PH (0.887) and compared favourably to liver stiffness measurement (AUC: 0.808). Their performance in external validation datasets was heterogeneous (AUCs: 0.589-0.887). Training on the merged cohort optimised model performance for CSPH (AUCs for 3P and 5P: 0.775 and 0.789, respectively) and severe PH (0.737 and 0.828, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Internally trained MLMs reliably predicted PH severity in the Vienna cACLD cohort but exhibited heterogeneous results on external validation. The proposed 3P/5P online tool can reliably identify individuals with CSPH or severe PH, who are thus at risk of hepatic decompensation.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

We used machine learning models based on widely available laboratory parameters to develop a non-invasive model to predict the severity of portal hypertension in individuals with compensated cirrhosis, who currently require invasive measurement of hepatic venous pressure gradient. We validated our findings in a large multicentre cohort of individuals with advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) of any cause. Finally, we provide a readily available online calculator, based on 3 (platelet count, bilirubin, international normalised ratio) or 5 (platelet count, bilirubin, activated partial thromboplastin time, gamma-glutamyltransferase, choline-esterase) widely available laboratory parameters, that clinicians can use to predict the likelihood of their patients with cACLD having clinically significant or severe portal hypertension.

A novel prognostic model for predicting the risk of first variceal hemorrhage in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis

Background

Variceal hemorrhage (VH) is a life-threatening complication of cirrhosis. An accurate VH risk evaluation is critical to determine appropriate prevention strategies. We aimed to develop an individualized prediction model to predict the risk of first VH in hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhotic patients.

Methods

A nomogram was developed based on a retrospective analysis of 527 consecutive HBV-related cirrhotic patients with gastroesophageal varices (GEVs). The nomogram evaluation was performed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), concordance index (C-index), calibration plot, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The results were verified using an external cohort (n = 187).

Results

We developed a nomogram based on clinical and endoscopic features, including the size of varices, red wale marks, ascites, spleen thickness, γ-glutamyltransferase, and hematocrit. The C-index of the nomogram in the derivation and validation cohort was 0.806 and 0.820, respectively, and the calibration plot fitted well. Compared with those of the North Italian Endoscopic Club (NIEC) and revised NIEC indexes, the AUC (derivation cohort: 0.822 vs. 0.653 vs. 0.713; validation cohort: 0.846 vs. 0.685 vs. 0.747) and DCA curves of this nomogram were better. Further, based on the risk scores, patients were classified into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups, and significant differences were noted in VH incidence among the three risk groups (P <0.001 for each cohort).

Conclusions

An effective individualized nomogram to predict the risk of first VH in HBV-related GEV patients was established, which can assist clinicians in developing more appropriate prevention strategies.

Computed tomography perfusion in liver and spleen for hepatitis B virus-related portal hypertension: A correlation study with hepatic venous pressure gradient

BACKGROUND

Hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) is the gold standard for diagnosis of portal hypertension (PH). However, its use can be limited because it is an invasive procedure. Therefore, it is necessary to explore a non-invasive method to assess PH.

AIM

To investigate the correlation of computed tomography (CT) perfusion of the liver with HVPG and Child-Pugh score in hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related PH.

METHODS

Twenty-eight patients (4 female, 24 male) with gastroesophageal variceal bleeding induced by HBV-related PH were recruited in our study. All patients received CT perfusion of the liver before transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent-shunt (TIPS) therapy. Quantitative parameters of CT perfusion of the liver, including liver blood flow (LBF), liver blood volume (LBV), hepatic artery fraction, splenic blood flow and splenic blood volume were measured. HVPG was recorded during TIPS therapy. Correlation of liver perfusion with Child-Pugh score and HVPG were analyzed, and the receiver operating characteristic curve was analyzed. Based on HVPG (> 12 mmHg vs ≤ 12 mmHg), patients were divided into moderate and severe groups, and all parameters were compared.

RESULTS

Based on HVPG, 18 patients were classified into the moderate group and 10 patients were classified into the severe group. The Child-Pugh score, HVPG, LBF and LBV were significantly higher in the moderate group compared to the severe group (all P < 0.05). LBF and LBV were negatively associated with HVPG (r = -0.473, P < 0.05 and r = -0.503, P < 0.01, respectively), whereas splenic blood flow was positively associated with hepatic artery fraction (r = 0.434, P < 0.05). LBV was negatively correlated with Child-Pugh score. Child-Pugh score was not related to HVPG. Using a cutoff value of 17.85 mL/min/100 g for LBV, the sensitivity and specificity of HVPG ≥ 12 mmHg for diagnosis were 80% and 89%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

LBV and LBF were negatively correlated with HVPG and Child-Pugh scores. CT perfusion imaging is a potential non-invasive quantitative predictor for PH in HBV-related liver cirrhosis.

Assessing the Risk of Further Decompensation and Survival in Patients With Cirrhosis With Variceal Bleeding as Their First Decompensation Event

INTRODUCTION

Limited data exist on long-term outcomes of patients with compensated cirrhosis presenting with acute variceal bleeding (AVB) as an index and lone decompensating event. This study aimed to evaluate the incidence of further decompensation, survival, and risk factors of mortality in these patients.

METHODS

Patients with otherwise compensated cirrhosis presenting with AVB as their index decompensating event (n = 463) were analyzed in this single-center retrospective study. The incidence of individual decompensation events and survival was estimated using competing risk analysis. Risk factors for poor outcomes were identified.

RESULTS

The mean age was 47.4 (13.2) years, with most patients (86.5%) being males. Alcohol-related liver disease (42.3%) and viral cirrhosis (22.4%) were the main etiologies with a median Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score of 14 (11-15) at baseline. Over a median follow-up of 42 (24-62) months, 292 patients experienced further decompensations: ascites (n = 283; 96.9%), rebleeding (n = 157; 53.8%), and hepatic encephalopathy (n = 71; 24.3%). Most events occurred with similar frequency across different etiologies, except acute-on-chronic liver failure, which was more common in nonviral cirrhosis (Gray test, P = 0.042). Patients with viral and nonviral cirrhosis had similar survival (5-year survival: 91% and 80.1%, respectively; P = 0.062). Patients with early further decompensations (onset <6 weeks of index AVB event) (n = 40) had a higher mortality (52.5% vs 20.2% for late decompensations; P < 0.001). Active alcohol consumption (hazard ratio [HR]: 9 [5.31-15.3], P < 0.001), high white blood cell count at presentation (HR: 2.5 [1.4-4.4], P = 0.001), and early decompensation (HR: 6.2 [3.6-10.6], P < 0.001) predicted poor survival.

DISCUSSION

Despite a high incidence of further decompensation, 5-year survival of patients at this stage of cirrhosis is more than 80% across all etiologies in the absence of early further decompensation and active alcohol consumption.

Prognostic importance of interleukin 2 receptor for patients with a history of cirrhotic variceal bleeding

OBJECTIVES

Variceal hemorrhage is a fatal complication of cirrhosis. In this study, we aimed to investigate the role of serum interleukin 2 receptor (sIL-2R) as a predictive indicator in patients with a previous history of cirrhosis-related variceal bleeding.

METHODS

A total of 340 cirrhotic patients who had experienced variceal bleeding from December 2016 to December 2018 were enrolled, and were randomly assigned to the modeling group and the validation group. The 3-year variceal rebleeding rate and other outcomes including adverse events were analyzed between patients with different sIL-2R levels.

RESULTS

A time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of variceal rebleeding indicated that sIL-2R had an area under the ROC curve (AUROC] of 0.731 and 0.837 for the modeling and validation groups, respectively, with a cut-off value of 426 U/mL. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that higher sIL-2R level was related to an increased risk of variceal rebleeding rate (55.33% vs 24.34%, P = 0.024 and 51.28% vs 15.32%, P = 0.049) and decreased 3-year survival rate (91.16% vs 98.92%, P = 0.013 and 90.52% vs 97.50%, P = 0.180) in the modeling and validation groups. Elevated sIL-2R levels were associated with an increased risk of portal vein thrombosis and severe ascites as well as inferior liver function, hypercoagulable state, and increased portal pressure.

CONCLUSION

High sIL-2R levels were associated with poor prognosis in cirrhotic patients with previous variceal bleeding.

A Liver Stiffness Measurement-Based Nomogram Predicts Variceal Rebleeding in Hepatitis B-Related Cirrhosis

Background

Cirrhosis esophageal variceal rebleeding is a major complication of chronic cirrhosis. The hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) can predict the risk of rebleeding in patients with cirrhosis and has a good correlation with liver stiffness measurement (LSM). However, there are currently few studies based on liver stiffness to predict the risk of rebleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis. This study is aimed at exploring whether liver stiffness can predict rebleeding in patients with hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis and developing an easy-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of rebleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis undergoing secondary prevention.

Methods

A prospective analysis of 289 cirrhosis patients was performed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors to create a nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by using a bootstrapped-concordance index and calibration plots.

Results

Use of a nonselective beta-blocker (NSBB) drug, LSM, hemoglobin, and platelet count were identified as factors that could predict rebleeding. We created a nomogram for rebleeding in cirrhosis by using these risk factors. The predictive ability of the nomogram was assessed by the C-index (0.772, 95% CI 0.732–0.822). The results of the calibration plots showed that the actual observation and prediction values obtained by the nomogram had good consistency.

Conclusions

LSM can predict the risk of rebleeding in patients with cirrhosis, while the nomogram is a conventional tool for doctors to facilitate a personalized prognostic evaluation.

Endoscopic Ultrasound Evaluation of Portal Pressure

Portal hypertension is a complex syndrome with multiple clinical manifestations that develop in a variety of conditions and diseases. The spectrum of portal hypertension manifestations is wide and dependent on the physiologic site of increased portal resistance (pre-, post-, and sinusoidal or intrahepatic), as well as the presence of hepatocellular dysfunction.

Transjugular liver biopsy and hepatic venous pressure gradient measurement in patients with and without liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Transjugular liver biopsy (TJLB) and hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement are diagnostic procedures for patients with acute and chronic liver diseases. Technical execution of TJLB and HVPG may be challenging in patients with advanced liver disease.

OBJECTIVE

We studied consecutive TJLB and HVPG procedures and investigated technical success, complications, quality of biopsies, indications and treatment changes in patients with and without liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

In the study period from 2010 to 2018, 575 consecutive TJLB and HVPG procedures were analyzed. Demographic characteristics, procedure-related and follow-up data were extracted from medical records.

RESULTS

In total, 259 (45%) patients were diagnosed with liver cirrhosis whereas 316 (55%) patients had no evidence of advanced chronic liver disease. Technical success of TJLB was significantly higher in patients without liver cirrhosis (287; 92%) compared to patients with liver cirrhosis [184; 76.7% (P = 0.001)]. Technical success of HVPG measurement was not different between both groups (P = 0.553). Liver biopsy specimens were significantly shorter in patients with liver cirrhosis (P = 0.001). Medical therapy was adjusted in 163 (28.4%) patients. In patients with liver cirrhosis, results of TJLB led less frequently to therapy initiation or adjustment compared to patients without liver cirrhosis (P = 0.001). In multivariate analysis, liver cirrhosis (Exp(B) 1.866; P = 0.012), alanine aminotransferase (Exp(B) 0.248; P < 0.001) and INR (Exp(B) 0.583; P = 0.027) were independently associated with treatment change.

CONCLUSION

Technical success and therapeutic decisions of TJLB are directly linked to presence or absence of liver cirrhosis.

Mac-2 binding protein glycosylation isomer is a potential biomarker to predict portal hypertension and bacterial infection in cirrhotic patients

Objectives

Mac-2-binding protein glycosylation isomer (M2BPGi) is a novel plasma biomarker for liver fibrosis, but less is known about its role in portal hypertension. We aimed to evaluate the association between M2BPGi and hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) and to investigate its predictive value on prognosis of cirrhotic patients.

Methods

Forty-eight cirrhotic patients who underwent HVPG measurement in Taipei Veterans General hospital were retrospectively enrolled. The Spearman’s correlation test was used to analyze the correlation between plasma M2BPGi levels and HVPG and other parameters. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to identify predictors for clinical outcomes.

Results

Plasma M2BPGi levels were higher in cirrhotic patients than healthy subjects and significantly correlated with HVPG levels (r_s = 0.45, p = 0.001). On multivariate Cox regression analysis, higher plasma M2BPGi levels [≥ 6 cut-off index (C.O.I)] did not predict mortality within five years for cirrhotic patients and the result was similar in patients without hepatocellular carcinoma. Interestingly, M2BPGi ≥ 6 C.O.I was a potential predictor of bacterial infection within five years [Hazar ratio (HR) = 4.51, p = 0.003]. However, M2BPGi failed to predict occurrence of other cirrhosis-related complications, including variceal bleeding, ascites formation, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, hepatorenal syndrome and hepatic encephalopathy.

Conclusion

Plasma M2BPGi levels positively correlated with HVPG and higher serum M2BPGi levels might have a potential role in predicting development of bacterial infection for cirrhotic patients with portal hypertension.

Recent Advances in the Management of Acute Variceal Hemorrhage

Gastrointestinal bleeding is one of the most relevant causes of death in patients with cirrhosis and clinically significant portal hypertension, with gastroesophageal varices being the most frequent source of hemorrhage. Despite survival has improved thanks to the standardization on medical treatment aiming to decrease portal hypertension and prevent infections, mortality remains significant. In this review, our goal is to discuss the most recent advances in the management of esophageal variceal hemorrhage in cirrhosis with specific attention to the treatment algorithms involving the use of indirect measurement of portal pressure (HVPG) and transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS), which aim to further reduce mortality in high-risk patients after acute variceal hemorrhage and in the setting of secondary prophylaxis.

The Role of Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient in the Management of Cirrhosis

Quantifying the degree of portal hypertension provides useful information to estimate prognosis and to evaluate new therapies for portal hypertension. This quantification is done in clinical practice with the measurement of the hepatic venous pressure gradient. This article addresses the applications of measuring portal pressure in cirrhosis, including the differential diagnosis of portal hypertension; estimation of prognosis in cirrhosis, including preoperative evaluation before hepatic and extrahepatic surgery; assessment of the response to drug therapy (mainly in the context of drug development); and assessing the regression of portal hypertension syndrome.

Transjugular Liver Biopsy with Hemodynamic Evaluation: Correlation between Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient and Histologic Diagnosis of Cirrhosis

Objectives:

Measurement of hepatic vein pressures is the accepted gold standard for the evaluation of portal hypertension. This study was conducted to evaluate the correlation between hepatic vein pressure measurements and histologic findings from transjugular liver biopsies. The hypothesis was that higher hepatic venous pressure gradients would correlate with a histologic diagnosis of cirrhosis.

Material and Methods:

We identified all patients who underwent transjugular liver biopsies at our institution between January 2015 and December 2019. Of these, 178 patients who had undergone hemodynamic evaluations during the biopsy procedure were included in the study. Demographic information and laboratory data were extracted from the patients’ electronic medical records. The hepatic vein pressure gradient (HVPG) was determined by subtracting the free hepatic venous pressure from the wedged hepatic venous pressure (WHVP), and the portosystemic gradient (PSG) was determined by subtracting the right atrial pressure from the WHVP. HVPG and PSG were compared by linear regression analysis and by calculating their receiver operating characteristics (ROC).

Results:

HVPG and PSG measurements were significantly associated with cirrhosis, with area under the ROC curve of 0.79 and 0.78, respectively. At the optimal cutoff of 9 mmHg, sensitivity and specificity for HVPG were 71% and 83% for HVPG and 67 % and 81% for PSG, respectively. No statistical difference was observed between the two measurements.

Conclusion:

A transhepatic venous pressure gradient above a cutoff of 9 mmHg is predictive of histologic cirrhosis, regardless of whether it is expressed as HVPG or PSG, with acceptable to excellent performance characteristics.

Liver stiffness assessment as an alternative to hepatic venous pressure gradient for predicting rebleed after acute variceal bleed: A proof-of-concept study

Background and Aim

Hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG), although an important determinant in predicting rebleeding after an episode of acute variceal bleed (AVB), is seldom utilized in clinical practice. We aimed to study the role of liver stiffness measurement (LSM) after variceal bleeding as a potential noninvasive predictor of rebleed.

Methods

This was a post hoc analysis of clinical trial of patients undergoing HVPG (postbleed HVPG) and LSM (postbleed LSM) assessment within 3–5 days of index AVB. HVPG response was assessed after 4 weeks of pharmacotherapy. Comparative assessment of long‐term rebleeding rates stratified using postbleed LSM, postbleed HVPG, and HVPG response was performed. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was conducted to identify the most appropriate tool for routine use.

Results

Long‐term clinical and HVPG response data were available for 48 patients post‐AVB, of whom 45 patients had valid postbleed LSM. Rebleeding occurred in 13 (28%) patients over a median follow‐up of 4 years with no early rebleeds. Postbleed LSM >30 kPa and baseline HVPG >15 mm Hg were optimal cutoffs for identifying patients at high risk of rebleeding. Time‐dependent receiver operating characteristic curves and competing risk analysis accounting for death showed similar discriminative values for all three stratification tools. At usual risk thresholds, HVPG response had maximum benefit on DCA followed by postbleed LSM. On DCA, 50–60 additional HVPGs were required to detect one additional patient at high risk of rebleed.

Conclusion

Liver stiffness measurement during AVB can potentially be used as an alternative to portal pressure indices in decompensated cirrhosis to identify those at high risk of late‐onset rebleed.

Application of Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient to Predict Prognosis in Cirrhotic Patients with a Low Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score

: Background/aim: We aimed to derive a model representing the dynamic status of cirrhosis and to discriminate patients with poor prognosis even if the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score is low.

METHODS

This study retrospectively enrolled 700 cirrhotic patients with a MELD score of less than 20 who underwent hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement. A model named H6C score (= HVPG + 6 × CTP score) to predict overall survival was derived and internal and external validations were conducted with the derivation and validation cohorts.

RESULTS

The H6C score using the HVPG was developed based on a multivariate Cox regression analysis. The H6C score showed a great predictive power for overall survival with a time-dependent AUC of 0.733, which was superior to that of a MELD of 0.602. In patients with viral etiology, the performance of the H6C score was much improved with a time-dependent AUC of 0.850 and was consistently superior to that of the MELD (0.748). Patients with an H6C score below 45 demonstrated an excellent overall survival with a 5-year survival rate of 91.5%. Whereas, patients with an H6C score above 64 showed a dismal prognosis with a 5-year survival rate of 51.1%. The performance of the H6C score was further verified to be excellent in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

This new model using the HVPG provides an excellent predictive power in cirrhotic patients, especially with viral etiology. In patients with H6C above 64, it would be wise to consider early liver transplantation to positively impact long-term survival, even when the MELD score is low.

Early rebleeding increases mortality of variecal bleeders on secondary prophylaxis with β-blockers and ligation

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Despite secondary-prophylaxis with β-blockers and endoscopic-variceal-ligation rebleeding is frequent, particularly within the first-6-weeks. Early-rebleeding may have greater impact on death-risk than late rebleeding, which may affect therapy. We assessed whether the influence of rebleeding on long-term survival of patients on secondary-prophylaxis is greater in patients with early-rebleeding.

METHODS

369 patients with cirrhosis were consecutively included once recovered from first variceal-bleeding. The impact of rebleeding on survival was investigated according to whether it occurred within 6-weeks (early-rebleeding) or later (late-rebleeding).

RESULTS

During 46-months of follow-up (IQR: 14-61), 45 patients (12%) had early-rebleeding, 74(20%) had late-rebleeding and 250(68%) had not rebleeding. Mortality risk was higher in early-rebleeding group vs. late-rebleeding (HR = 0.476, 95%CI = 0.318-0.712, p < 0.001) and was similar in late-rebleeding group vs. no-rebleeding (HR = 0.902, 95%CI = 0.749-1.086, p = 0.271). Adjusting for baseline risk-factors, early-rebleeding was independently associated with mortality-risk (HR = 1.58, 95%CI = 1.02-2.45; p = 0.04). Child-Pugh&MELD scores improved at 3rd-4th-week only in patients without early-rebleeding (p < 0.05). Presence of ascites or encephalopathy, MELD-score>12 and HVPG>20 mmHg identified patients at risk of early-rebleeding.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with early-rebleeding have higher risk of death than patients without rebleeding and even than those rebleeding later. Our results suggest that patients at risk of early rebleeding might benefit from preemptive therapies such as early-TIPS.