A tale of two countries: progress towards UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets in Botswana and Australia

High prevalence of pre-treatment and acquired HIV-1 drug resistance mutations among non-citizens living with HIV in Botswana

Background

Approximately 30,000 non-citizens are living with HIV in Botswana, all of whom as of 2020 are eligible to receive free antiretroviral treatment (ART) within the country. We assessed the prevalence of HIV-1 mutational profiles [pre-treatment drug resistance (PDR) and acquired drug resistance (ADR)] among treatment-experienced (TE) and treatment-naïve (TN) non-citizens living with HIV in Botswana.

Methods

A total of 152 non-citizens living with HIV were enrolled from a migrant HIV clinic at Independence Surgery, a private practice in Botswana from 2019-2021. Viral RNA isolated from plasma samples were genotyped for HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) using Sanger sequencing. Major known HIV drug resistance mutations (DRMs) in the pol region were determined using the Stanford HIV Drug Resistance Database. The proportions of HIV DRMs amongst TE and TN non-citizens were estimated with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) and compared between the two groups.

Results

A total of 60/152 (39.5%) participants had a detectable viral load (VL) >40 copies/mL and these were included in the subsequent analyses. The median age at enrollment was 43 years (Q1, Q3: 38-48). Among individuals with VL > 40 copies/mL, 60% (36/60) were treatment-experienced with 53% (19/36) of them on Atripla. Genotyping had a 62% (37/60) success rate - 24 were TE, and 13 were TN. A total of 29 participants (78.4, 95% CI: 0.12-0.35) had major HIV DRMs, including at least one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) associated DRM. In TE individuals, ADR to any antiretroviral drug was 83.3% (20/24), while for PDR was 69.2% (9/13). The most frequent DRMs were nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) M184V (62.1%, 18/29), NNRTIs V106M (41.4%, 12/29), and K103N (34.4%, 10/29). No integrase strand transfer inhibitor-associated DRMs were reported.

Conclusion

We report high rates of PDR and ADR in ART-experienced and ART-naïve non-citizens, respectively, in Botswana. Given the uncertainty of time of HIV acquisition and treatment adherence levels in this population, routine HIV-1C VL monitoring coupled with HIVDR genotyping is crucial for long-term ART success.

Optimising HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis and testing strategies in men who have sex with men in Australia, Thailand, and China: a modelling study and cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Asia-Pacific region have a disproportionately high burden of HIV infection compared with the general population. Although pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV is highly effective at preventing new HIV infections, the cost-effectiveness of PrEP for MSM in different countries in the Asia-Pacific region with varying PrEP coverage and HIV testing frequencies remains unstudied. We aimed to analyse the economic and health benefits of long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB-LA) compared with oral PrEP in high-income countries and low-income and middle-income countries within the Asia-Pacific region.

METHODS

We developed a decision-analytic Markov model to evaluate the population impact and cost-effectiveness of PrEP scale-up among MSM in Australia, Thailand, and China. We assumed a static cohort of 100 000 MSM aged 18 years or older who were at risk of HIV infection, with a monthly cycle length over a 40-year time period. We evaluated hypothetical scenarios with universal PrEP coverage of 80% among 100 000 suitable MSM in each country. We modelled oral PrEP and CAB-LA for MSM with diverse HIV testing frequency strategies. We adopted the health-care system's perspective with a 3% annual discount rate. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), measured as additional cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, to compare different strategies with the status quo in each country. All costs were reported in 2021 US$. We also performed one-way, two-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of our findings.

FINDINGS

Compared with the status quo in each country, expanding oral PrEP to 80% of suitable MSM would avert 8·1% of new HIV infections in Australia, 14·5% in Thailand, and 26·4% in China in a 40-year period. Expanding oral PrEP use with 6-monthly HIV testing for both PrEP and non-PrEP users was cost-saving for Australia. Similarly, expanding oral PrEP use remained the most cost-effective strategy in both Thailand and China, but optimal testing frequency varied, with annual testing in Thailand (ICER $4707 per QALY gained) and 3-monthly testing in China (ICER $16 926 per QALY gained) for both PrEP and non-PrEP users. We also found that replacing oral PrEP with CAB-LA for MSM could avert more new HIV infections (12·8% in Australia, 27·6% in Thailand, and 32·8% in China), but implementing CAB-LA was not cost-effective due to its high cost. The cost of CAB-LA would need to be reduced by 50-90% and be used as a complementary strategy to oral PrEP to be cost-effective in these countries.

INTERPRETATION

Expanding oral PrEP use for MSM, with country-specific testing frequency, is cost-effective in Australia, Thailand, and China. Due to the high cost, CAB-LA is currently not affordable as a single-use strategy but might be offered as an additional option to oral PrEP.

FUNDING

Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China, the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, National Key Research and Development Program of China, and National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Process evaluation of the 90-90-90 targets of surge project in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: a case study evaluation

BACKGROUND

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) is a major public health problem that continues to pose an enormous challenge to mankind's survival worldwide. In urban Ethiopia, the HIV prevalence among adults aged 15-49 years is 2.9%, while in Addis Ababa, it is 3.4%. To take the edge off, the Ethiopian government has been implementing the 90-90-90 strategy also known as the surge project, in urban cities. However, the implementation of the program has not been evaluated. Thus, we evaluated the process of the 90-90-90 targets of the surge project in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

METHODS

We conducted a case study with concurrent mixed-methods evaluation. We used indicator-driven evaluation dimensions -availability and accommodation dimensions from the health services access and compliance and fidelity from implementation fidelity frameworks to test the program process theory with a total of 52 indicators. We interviewed a total of 419 clients and 210 healthcare providers and reviewed 417 clients' cards and 17 registries. We also conducted 30 key informant interviews and resource inventory. A binary logistic regression analysis was done to identify factors associated with clients' satisfaction. We transcribed and translated the qualitative data and analysed thematically. Finally, we judged the overall process of the surge project based on the pre-seated judgmental criteria as; needs urgent improvement, needs improvement and well implemented.

RESULTS

We found that 90% of the project process was as per the program process theory measured by the availability of resources (95.8%), compliance (88.0%), fidelity (84.7%), and accommodation of services (89.3%). We found a shortage of human power, test kits, and viral load testing machines. The commitment of health care providers, provider-client interaction, and clients' satisfaction with the service at card rooms were found to be poor. Moreover, being aged 15-24, being married and government government-employed were negatively associated with clients' satisfaction with antiretroviral therapy services.

CONCLUSION

The process of the surge project needs improvement. Moreover, the achievements of the first two 90-90 targets were poor. Therefore, implementers need to take intensified action for the availability of resources and to improve the commitment of healthcare providers through refreshment training.

Developing critical HIV health literacy: insights from interviews with priority migrant communities in Queensland, Australia

In Australia, surveillance data establish that there are higher rates of late HIV diagnoses among heterosexual migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa and new HIV diagnoses among gay and bisexual men (GBM) from Southeast and Northeast Asia and Latin America. Together, these groups are identified as priority migrant communities in current efforts to eliminate HIV transmissions. HIV health literacy is recognised as a key means of improving access to services and health outcomes. This qualitative paper explores critical HIV health literacy among priority migrant communities in Queensland, Australia. To foreground community voices, peer researchers from priority migrant communities participated in the project design, data collection and analysis, with 20 interviews completed. The findings demonstrate how participants' engagement with HIV health information and services is highly relational and situated within the framework of sexual health and wellbeing. Participants strategically selected where to seek information and who they trusted to help them appraise this information. They further demonstrated reflective capacities in identifying the contextual barriers that inhibit the development of their HIV health literacy. The findings highlight the need for HIV health promotion strategies that embrace a sex positive approach, promote cultural change, and involve collaboration with general practitioners (GPs).

HIV-Related Knowledge and Practices among Asian and African Migrants Living in Australia: Results from a Cross-Sectional Survey and Qualitative Study

Australian HIV notification rates are higher for people born in Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa compared to Australian-born people. The Migrant Blood-Borne Virus and Sexual Health Survey represents the first attempt to build the national evidence base regarding HIV knowledge, risk behaviors and testing among migrants in Australia. To inform survey development, preliminary qualitative research was conducted with a convenience sample of n = 23 migrants. A survey was developed with reference to the qualitative data and existing survey instruments. Non-probability sampling of adults born in Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa was undertaken (n = 1489), and descriptive and bivariate analyses of data were conducted. Knowledge of pre-exposure prophylaxis was low (15.59%), and condom use at last sexual encounter was reported by 56.63% of respondents engaging in casual sex, and 51.80% of respondents reported multiple sexual partners. Less than one-third (31.33%) of respondents reported testing for any sexually transmitted infection or blood-borne virus in the previous two years and, of these, less than half (45.95%) tested for HIV. Confusion surrounding HIV testing practices was reported. These findings identify policy interventions and service improvements critically needed to reduce widening disparities regarding HIV in Australia.

Uptake and effect of universal test-and-treat on twelve months retention and initial virologic suppression in routine HIV program in Kenya

Early combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), as recommended in WHO's universal test-and-treat (UTT) policy, is associated with improved linkage to care, retention, and virologic suppression in controlled studies. We aimed to describe UTT uptake and effect on twelve-month non-retention and initial virologic non-suppression (VnS) among HIV infected adults starting cART in routine HIV program in Kenya. Individual-level HIV service delivery data from 38 health facilities, each representing 38 of the 47 counties in Kenya were analysed. Adults (>15 years) initiating cART between the second-half of 2015 (2015HY2) and the first-half of 2018 (2018HY1) were followed up for twelve months. UTT was defined based on time from an HIV diagnosis to cART initiation and was categorized as same-day, 1-14 days, 15-90 days, and 91+ days. Non-retention was defined as individuals lost-to-follow-up or reported dead by the end of the follow up period. Initial VnS was defined based on the first available viral load test with >400 copies/ml. Hierarchical mixed-effects survival and generalised linear regression models were used to assess the effect of UTT on non-retention and VnS, respectively. Of 8592 individuals analysed, majority (n = 5864 [68.2%]) were female. Same-day HIV diagnosis and cART initiation increased from 15.3% (2015HY2) to 52.2% (2018HY1). The overall non-retention rate was 2.8 (95% CI: 2.6-2.9) per 100 person-months. When compared to individuals initiated cART 91+ days after a HIV diagnosis, those initiated cART on the same day of a HIV diagnosis had the highest rate of non-retention (same-day vs. 91+ days; aHR, 1.7 [95% CI: 1.5-2.0], p<0.001). Of those included in the analysis, 5986 (69.6%) had a first viral load test done at a median of 6.3 (IQR, 5.6-7.6) months after cART initiation. Of these, 835 (13.9%) had VnS. There was no association between UTT and VnS (same-day vs. 91+ days; aRR, 1.0 [95% CI: 0.9-1.2], p = 0.664). Our findings demonstrate substantial uptake of the UTT policy but poor twelve-month retention and lack of an association with initial VnS from routine HIV settings in Kenya. These findings warrant consideration for multi-pronged program interventions alongside UTT policy for maximum intended benefits in Kenya.

Kharsany A, Zewotir T, North D. Spatial Variation and Factors Associated with Unsuppressed HIV Viral Load among Women in an HIV Hyperendemic Area of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

New HIV infections among young women remains exceptionally high and to prevent onward transmission, UNAIDS set ambitious treatment targets. This study aimed to determine the prevalence, spatial variation and factors associated with unsuppressed HIV viral load at ≥400 copies per mL. This study analysed data from women aged 15–49 years from the HIV Incidence Provincial Surveillance System (HIPSS) enrolled in two sequential cross-sectional studies undertaken in 2014 and 2015 in rural and peri-urban KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Bayesian geoadditive model with spatial effect for a small enumeration area was adopted using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) function to analyze the findings. The overall prevalence of unsuppressed HIV viral load was 45.2% in 2014 and 38.1% in 2015. Factors associated with unsuppressed viral load were no prior knowledge of HIV status, had a moderate-to-low perception of acquiring HIV, not on antiretroviral therapy (ART), and having a low CD4 cell count. In 2014, women who ever consumed alcohol and in 2015, ever ran out of money, had two or more lifetime sexual partners, ever tested for tuberculosis, and ever diagnosed with sexually transmitted infection were at higher risk of being virally unsuppressed. The nonlinear effect showed that women aged 15 to 29 years, from smaller households and had fewer number of lifetime HIV tests, were more likely to be virally unsuppressed. High viral load risk areas were the north-east and south-west in 2014, with north and west in 2015. The findings provide guidance on identifying key populations and areas for targeted interventions.

Causal Structural Learning on MPHIA Individual Dataset

The Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) is an ongoing project that conducts nationally representative HIV-focused surveys for measuring national and regional progress toward UNAIDS' 90-90-90 targets, the primary strategy to end the HIV epidemic. We believe the PHIA survey offers a unique opportunity to better understand the key factors that drive the HIV epidemics in the most affected countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In this article, we propose a novel causal structural learning algorithm to discover important covariates and potential causal pathways for 90-90-90 targets. Existing constrained-based causal structural learning algorithms are quite aggressive in edge removal. The proposed algorithm preserves more information about important features and potential causal pathways. It is applied to the Malawi PHIA (MPHIA) data set and leads to interesting results. For example, it discovers age and condom usage to be important for female HIV awareness; the number of sexual partners to be important for male HIV awareness; and knowing the travel time to HIV care facilities leads to a higher chance of being treated for both females and males. We further compare and validate the proposed algorithm using BIC and using Monte Carlo simulations, and show that the proposed algorithm achieves improvement in true positive rates in important feature discovery over existing algorithms.

Progress towards 2020 global HIV impact and treatment targets

INTRODUCTION

Over the past 20 years, the response to the HIV epidemic has achieved remarkable results. These results have often been motivated by targets adopted by countries through United Nations (UN) Political Declarations on HIV. The 2016 political declaration included two impact targets, to achieve a 75% decline in new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths between 2010 and 2020, and to reach the 90-90-90 testing and treatment targets by 2020. Our objective is to summarize progress towards these targets using robust and comparable HIV estimates released by UNAIDS in July 2021. In addition, we comment on the importance of targets and the modelled estimates required to quantify those targets.

DISCUSSION

The UNAIDS estimates indicate that at the global and regional levels, the 2020 targets were missed: new infections declined by 31% and AIDS-related deaths declined by 47% between 2010 and 2020, compared to a target of 75% decline for both indicators. Similarly, no region achieved the 90-90-90 testing and treatment targets. Some countries, in diverse settings, achieved these targets showing that the targets were not overly ambitious if the right funding, policies and evidence-informed interventions at the right scale were in place. The 2021 UN Political Declaration on HIV, adopted on 8 June 2021, has set out a new set of ambitious but achievable targets for 2025. The 2025 targets and the required actions to reach those targets are described in the Global AIDS Strategy 2021-2026, which provides a framework to reprioritize HIV responses by reducing inequalities and building on the achievements of multiple Sustainable Development Goals. The Strategy encourages countries to monitor progress against targets for different geographic areas and populations to maximize equitable services and ensure accountability and also to understand why targets are being missed.

CONCLUSIONS

The UNAIDS epidemiological estimates provide information that promote accountability and estimate progress towards global targets at the national level. Additional strategic information and analyses are required to identify the populations that are furthest from the targets and the programmes and policies that are keeping countries from meeting their targets.

Frequent Detection of Undiagnosed HIV Within Emergency Departments in Botswana

ABSTRACT

Among 130,161 HIV testing records from unique individuals at 149 programmatic sites in Botswana, frequency of detecting undiagnosed HIV infection within emergency departments (EDs) was 4.7% (455/9695), 2-fold higher than other clinic-based HIV counseling and testing. Men and noncitizens less frequently initiated same-day antiretroviral therapy after testing HIV positive within emergency departments.

Integrating and Interpreting Findings from the Latest Treatment as Prevention Trials

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

In 2018-2019, studies were published assessing the effectiveness of reducing HIV incidence by expanding HIV testing, linkage to HIV treatment, and assistance to persons living with HIV to adhere to their medications (the "90-90-90" strategy). These tests of "treatment as prevention" (TasP) had complex results.

RECENT FINDINGS

The TasP/ANRS 12249 study in South Africa, the SEARCH study in Kenya and Uganda, and one comparison (arms A to C) of the HPTN 071 (PopART) study in South Africa and Zambia did not demonstrate a community impact on HIV incidence. In contrast, the Botswana Ya Tsie study and the second comparison (arms B to C) of PopART indicated significant ≈ 30% reductions in HIV incidence in the intervention communities where TasP was expanded. We discuss the results of these trials and outline future research and challenges. These include the efficient expansion of widespread HIV testing, better linkage to care, and viral suppression among all persons living with HIV. A top implementation science priority for the next decade is to determine what strategies to use in specific local contexts.

Prevalence, determinants, and impact of suboptimal adherence to HIV medication in 25 countries

Modern antiretroviral therapy (ART) has improved the lives of people living with HIV (PLHIV) but currently requires daily adherence. We assessed prevalence and correlates of suboptimal adherence, and measured associations with self-reported health outcomes. Data were from web-based surveys of confirmed HIV+ adults on antiretroviral treatment within 25 countries during 2019 (n = 2389). Suboptimal adherence was a report of ≥1 reason for missing ART ≥5 times within the past month. Multivariable logistic regression examined associations between suboptimal adherence and self-reported overall health and virologic suppression. Overall, 24.1% (575/2389) reported suboptimal adherence, from 10.0% (5/50) in Austria, to 62.0% (31/50) in China. The most common reasons for missing ART ≥5 times in the overall population were feeling depressed/overwhelmed (7.4%, 176/2389), trying to forget about HIV (7.0%, 168/2389), and work (6.1%, 145/2389). Correlates of suboptimal adherence included being heterosexual, <50 years old, ≤high school, having gastrointestinal treatment side effects, and privacy concerns. Odds of suboptimal overall health were 1.41 (95%CI, 1.11-1.80), 2.10 (95%CI, 1.65-2.68), and 2.55 (95%CI, 2.00-3.25) among those who reported the maximum number of times missed ART for any reason within the past month as 1, 2-4, or ≥5 times respectively, vs not missing at all. Odds of virologic nonsuppression were 1.80 (95%CI, 1.33-2.45), and 2.24 (95%CI, 1.66-3.02) for 2-4, or ≥5 times of missed ART respectively, vs not missing at all; missing for only 1 time was not significantly associated with virologic nonsuppression. Novel ART strategies designed to improve adherence along with interventions to empower PLHIV and support self-medication may improve health outcomes and quality of life.

Overview of systematic reviews on strategies to improve treatment initiation, adherence to antiretroviral therapy and retention in care for people living with HIV: part 1

OBJECTIVES

We sought to map the evidence and identify interventions that increase initiation of antiretroviral therapy, adherence to antiretroviral therapy and retention in care for people living with HIV at high risk for poor engagement in care.

METHODS

We conducted an overview of systematic reviews and sought for evidence on vulnerable populations (men who have sex with men (MSM), African, Caribbean and Black (ACB) people, sex workers (SWs), people who inject drugs (PWID) and indigenous people). We searched PubMed, Excerpta Medica dataBASE, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, PsycINFO, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library in November 2018. We screened, extracted data and assessed methodological quality in duplicate and present a narrative synthesis.

RESULTS

We identified 2420 records of which only 98 systematic reviews were eligible. Overall, 65/98 (66.3%) were at low risk of bias. Systematic reviews focused on ACB (66/98; 67.3%), MSM (32/98; 32.7%), PWID (6/98; 6.1%), SWs and prisoners (both 4/98; 4.1%). Interventions were: mixed (37/98; 37.8%), digital (22/98; 22.4%), behavioural or educational (9/98; 9.2%), peer or community based (8/98; 8.2%), health system (7/98; 7.1%), medication modification (6/98; 6.1%), economic (4/98; 4.1%), pharmacy based (3/98; 3.1%) or task-shifting (2/98; 2.0%). Most of the reviews concluded that the interventions effective (69/98; 70.4%), 17.3% (17/98) were neutral or were indeterminate 12.2% (12/98). Knowledge gaps were the types of participants included in primary studies (vulnerable populations not included), poor research quality of primary studies and poorly tailored interventions (not designed for vulnerable populations). Digital, mixed and peer/community-based interventions were reported to be effective across the continuum of care.

CONCLUSIONS

Interventions along the care cascade are mostly focused on adherence and do not sufficiently address all vulnerable populations.

Treatment as Prevention: Concepts and Challenges for Reducing HIV Incidence

Four of the largest HIV prevention trials have been conducted in sub-Saharan Africa, enrolling hundreds of thousands of participants in catchment areas of millions of people. The trials have focused on community-level interventions to increase diagnosis and initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) to improve health and reduce HIV transmission. Universal test-and-treat strategies are deployed to achieve viral suppression thereby reducing risk to uninfected persons, known as treatment as prevention (TasP).

Rapid initiation of antiretroviral therapy at HIV diagnosis: definition, process, knowledge gaps

Initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) as early as the day of HIV diagnosis is a strategy of increasing global interest to control the HIV epidemic and optimize the health of people living with HIV (PLWH). No detrimental effects of rapid-start ART have been identified in randomized controlled trials undertaken in low- or middle-income countries, or in cohort studies performed in high-income countries. Rapid-start ART may be a key approach in reaching the 2020 Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS goal of 90% of all PLWH knowing their status, 90% of those diagnosed receiving sustained ART, and 90% of those receiving ART achieving viral suppression; it may also be important for achieving the suggested fourth "90%" goal: improving health-related quality-of-life in PLWH. Presently there is insufficient broad evidence for guidelines to recommend universal test-and-treat strategies for all people, in all settings, at HIV diagnosis; consequently, there is a pressing need to conduct high-quality studies that investigate immediate ART initiation. This article evaluates global evidence regarding rapid-start ART, including same-day start, with particular focus on the implementation of this strategy in high-income countries.

Stroke and HIV in Botswana: A prospective study of risk factors and outcomes

OBJECTIVE

HIV is associated with an increased risk of stroke, but there are sparse data on risk factors for stroke in people living with HIV in Sub-Saharan African. The goal of this study was to identify HIV-specific stroke characteristics and risk factors among adults in Botswana.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study in Gaborone, Botswana from June 2015 to June 2017 comparing risk factors and outcomes among adults with and without HIV admitted for acute stroke. In addition, we conducted a case-control study comparing patients with HIV and stroke to outpatients with HIV and no history of stroke.

RESULTS

A total of 52 patients with imaging-confirmed acute stroke were enrolled. Stroke patients with HIV were younger than those without HIV (median age 40 vs 54, p = .005). Hypertension was the most common risk factor identified in both HIV+ and HIV- groups, but was more common in patients without HIV (81% vs. 55%, p = .04). Patients with HIV were significantly more likely to have a small-vessel lacunar syndrome compared to patients without HIV (67% vs. 29%, p = .02). In the case-control analysis, patients with HIV and stroke were more likely to have hypertension than stroke-free controls (53% vs. 16%; OR 7.2, 95% CI 1.5-33.8, p = .01), and were more likely to drink alcohol (53% vs. 21%, OR 3.7, 95% CI 1.1-12.1, p = .03).

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals with HIV present with strokes at younger ages than individuals without HIV. Among those with HIV, hypertension and alcohol use are significant risk factors for stroke.

Modelling the impact of migrants on the success of the HIV care and treatment program in Botswana

Introduction

Botswana offers publicly financed HIV treatment to citizens, but not migrants, who comprised about 7% of the population in 2016. However, HIV incidence is not declining in proportion to Botswana’s HIV response. In 2018, Botswana had 86% of citizens living with HIV diagnosed, 95% of people diagnosed on treatment, and 95% viral suppression among those on treatment. We hypothesised that continued exclusion of migrants is hampering reduction of HIV incidence in Botswana. Hence, we modelled the impact of including migrants in Botswana’s HIV response on achieving 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 Fast-Track targets by 2020 and 2030, respectively.

Methods

The Optima HIV model, with demographic, epidemiological, and behavioural inputs, was applied to citizens of and migrants to Botswana. Projections of new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths were compared for three scenarios to the end of 2030: (1) continued status quo for HIV testing and treatment coverage, and maintenance of levels of linkage to care, loss to follow-up, and viral suppression among citizens and migrants (baseline); (2) with scaled-up budget, optimised to achieve 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 Fast-Track targets by 2020 and 2030, respectively, for citizens only; and (3) scaled-up optimised budget to achieve these targets for both citizens and migrants.

Results

A baseline of 172,000 new HIV infections and 8,400 HIV-related deaths was projected over 2020–2030. Scaling up to achieve targets among citizens only averted an estimated 48,000 infections and 1,700 deaths. Achieving targets for both citizens and migrants averted 16,000 (34%) more infections and 442 (26%) more deaths. Scaling up for both populations reduced numbers of new HIV infections and deaths by 44% and 39% respectively compared with 2010 levels. Treating migrants when scaling up in both populations was estimated to cost USD 74 million over 2020–2030.

Conclusions

Providing HIV services to migrants in Botswana could lead to further reductions in HIV incidence and deaths. However, even with an increased, optimised budget that achieves 95-95-95 targets for both citizens and migrants by 2030, the 90% incidence reduction target for 2020 will be missed. Further efficiencies and innovations will be needed to meet HIV targets in Botswana.

Partner faithfulness and sexual reproductive health practices in Botswana: does perception of partner infidelity influence sexual risk behaviours of people aged 10-34 years?

The main aim of this study was to test whether perception of partner infidelity prompts people to adopt behaviour that is meant to compensate for the increased risk of infection posed by their partner's infidelity; or whether it prompts people to engage in behaviour that magnifies the risk associated with partner infidelity. Data used were derived from the fourth and latest Botswana AIDS Impact Survey (BAIS IV) conducted in 2013. The sample consisted of 6985 people aged 10-34 years. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with perception of partner infidelity and sexual risk behaviours. Perception of partner infidelity with the current and most recent partner was 39.6% while perception of partner infidelity with other previous sexual partners was 79.9%. The main socio-demographic factors associated with perception of partner infidelity were being a man, being single and having secondary education, while sexual risk behaviours associated with perception of partner infidelity were having multiple sexual partners and being involved in multiple concurrent sexual partnerships. These relationships were statistically significant at the 5% level. Botswana's HIV prevention strategies should seek to improve partner communication within relationships in order to enhance people's confidence and skills so as to minimize perceptions of infidelity.

The arc of HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa: new challenges with concentrating epidemics in the era of 90-90-90

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The aim of this review is to examine the emerging results from the HIV universal test and treat (UTT) cluster-randomized trials in sub-Saharan Africa, discuss how expanding access to HIV clinical services is likely to reshape the arc of HIV epidemics, and consider implications for HIV prevention and control strategies in the coming decade.

RECENT FINDINGS

The effect of universal HIV testing followed by immediate antiretroviral treatment (ART) on community-level HIV incidence remains unclear upon completion of five randomized trials. Only two of the four trials that measured HIV incidence found significant reductions in community-level incidence. Even in these trials, HIV incidence remained above levels required for epidemic control (≤1 case per 1000 person-years) despite high levels of ART coverage and viral suppression. These findings may indicate that community-delivered HIV services are not reaching the high-frequency transmitters who sustain HIV epidemics and are likely members of marginalized or hard to engage core groups.

SUMMARY

With expanded access to HIV services in sub-Saharan Africa, HIV epidemics are transitioning from hyperendemic to declining/endemic epidemic phases, characterized increasingly by the reconcentration of HIV in marginalized or hard to engage core groups. To move toward epidemic control, novel HIV service delivery models and technologies are needed to engage those who continue to drive HIV incidence in this new epidemic phase.

A need for implementation science to optimise the use of evidence-based interventions in HIV care: A systematic literature review

To improve health outcomes in people living with HIV, adoption of evidence-based interventions (EBIs) using effective and transferable implementation strategies to optimise the delivery of healthcare is needed. ViiV Healthcare's Positive Pathways initiative was established to support the UNAIDS 90-90-90 goals. A compendium of EBIs was developed to address gaps within the HIV care continuum, yet it was unknown whether efforts existed to adapt and implement these EBIs across diverse clinical contexts. Therefore, this review sought to report on the use of implementation science in adapting HIV continuum of care EBIs. A systematic literature review was undertaken to summarise the evaluation of implementation and effectiveness outcomes, and report on the use of implementation science in HIV care. Ten databases were reviewed to identify studies (time-period: 2013-2018; geographic scope: United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Canada, Australia and Europe; English only publications). Studies were included if they reported on people living with HIV or those at risk of acquiring HIV and used interventions consistent with the EBIs. A broad range of study designs and methods were searched, including hybrid designs. Overall, 118 publications covering 225 interventions consistent with the EBIs were identified. These interventions were evaluated on implementation (N = 183), effectiveness (N = 81), or both outcomes (N = 39). High variability in the methodological approaches was observed. Implementation outcomes were frequently evaluated but use of theoretical frameworks was limited (N = 13). Evaluations undertaken to assess effectiveness were inconsistent, resulting in a range of measures. This review revealed extensive reporting on implementation science as defined using evaluation outcomes. However, high variability was observed in how implementation outcomes and effectiveness were defined, quantified, and reported. A more specific and consistent approach to conducting and reporting on implementation science in HIV could facilitate achievement of UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets.

Which community-based HIV initiatives are effective in achieving UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets? A systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence (2007-2018)

Background

Reaching the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 targets to end the HIV epidemic relies on effective interventions that engage untested HIV+ individuals and retain them in care. Evidence on community-based interventions through the lens of the targets has not yet been synthesized, reflecting a knowledge gap. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to shed light on successful community-based interventions that have been effective in contributing, directly or indirectly, towards the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets: knowledge of HIV status, linkage to care/on treatment, and viral suppression. Linkage to care was also included in this review due to the limitations of studies.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the period 2007–2018. Eleven databases were searched to identify community-based interventions designed to improve knowledge of HIV status (in particular HIV testing), linkage to care/on treatment, and/or viral suppression. Eligible studies were classified by intervention, population, country income level, outcomes and success. Success was defined as interventions demonstrating statistical significance between intervention and control group or that reached any target by proportion; 90% testing, 81% linked to care/on treatment and 73% viral suppression.

Results

Of 82 eligible studies, 51.2% (42/82) reported on HIV testing (first 90), 20.7% (17/82) on linkage to care/ on treatment (second 90), and 45.1% (37/82) on viral suppression (third 90). In all, 67.1% (55/82) of studies reported success; 21 studies on the first 90, 9 towards linkage to care/on treatment, and 25 towards the third. By strategies, 36.6% deployed community workers/peers, 22% used combined test and treat strategies, 12.2% used educational methods, 8.5% used mobile testing, 7.3% used campaigns and 13.4% used technology. For HIV testing/linkage, combined test/treat interventions were often used, for viral suppression, educational interventions and technologies were commonly deployed. Our pooled analysis suggested that deployment of community health care workers/peer workers significantly improved viral suppression (pooled OR: 1.40 95% CI 1.06–1.86). Of the studies published after 2014, 50.0% reported metrics aligned with UNAIDS targets.

Conclusions

Data on linkage to care/on treatment (second target) remained weak, because many studies reported successes on the first and third targets. Stratification by targets and country income levels is informative and guides adaptation of successful interventions in comparable settings. Consistent reporting of clear metrics aligned with UNAIDS targets will aid in synergy of study data with programmatic data that will help reportage. Exploration of innovative interventions, for engagement and linkage and deployment of community/ peer workers is strongly encouraged.

Viral suppression among persons living with HIV in Trinidad & Tobago: Implications for targeted prevention programmes

In Trinidad and Tobago, despite persons living with HIV (PLHIV) having access to subsidised treatment and care, only 47% PLHIV attain viral suppression. The study assessed the role of individual-level factors on viral suppression among PLHIV in Trinidad and Tobago. Data from 9,629 PLHIV who attended an HIV clinic between 2016 and 2018 were analysed. Cases were aged ≥18 who met the CDC HIV case definition. Viral suppression defined as a viral load of <200 copies/ml at last assessment. The chi-square test of association determined statistically significant relationships between individual factors and viral suppression. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) for viral suppression. PLHIV who were males (OR = 0.76, 95% CI 0.67-0.87), men who have sex with men (MSM) (OR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.67-0.99), single/unmarried (OR = 0.69, 95% CI 0.55-0.87), aged 18-24 years (OR = 0.66, 95% CI 0.49-0.89), aged 25-49 years (OR = 0.81, 95% CI 0.70-0.94) were less likely to achieve viral suppression. These study findings demonstrate that retention/adherence programmes must urgently identify and target vulnerable PLHIV populations in Trinidad and Tobago to improve viral suppression. Further research examining community and societal factors, such as stigma and discrimination, is warranted.

Investigation of prevention of mother to child HIV transmission program from 2011 to 2017 in Suzhou, China

The vertical transmission of HIV, from mother to child remains one of the biggest challenges all over the world. This study evaluated the implementation and effectiveness of the prevention of mother to child HIV transmission (PMTCT) program from 2011 to 2017 in Suzhou. A total of 107 HIV positive women were enrolled in the program, of which 11 were diagnosed through premarital examination, and 96 women were diagnosed through prenatal examination. Among the 96 pregnant women, 67 gave birth to 68 live neonates. Only one infant was diagnosed HIV infected because the HIV positive mother did not enter the PMTCT program until delivery. The HIV prevalence in Suzhou city showed a low-level tendency. To increase the prenatal health utility and antiretroviral medication compliance of the migrant population in Suzhou, there are improvements to make in order to achieve the 90-90-90 targets.