The impact of population dynamics on the population HIV care cascade: results from the ANRS 12249 Treatment as Prevention trial in rural KwaZulu-Natal (South Africa)

Characterizing Mobility and its Association with HIV Outcomes in Refugee Settlements in Uganda

Background

A better understanding of refugee mobility is needed to optimize HIV care in refugee settlements.

Objectives

We aimed to characterize mobility patterns among people living with HIV in refugee settlements in Uganda and evaluate the association between mobility and retention in HIV care.

Methods

Refugees and Ugandan nationals accessing HIV services at seven health centers in refugee settlements across Uganda, with access to a phone, were recruited and followed for six months. Participants received an intake survey and monthly phone surveys on mobility and HIV. Clinic visit and viral suppression data were extracted from clinic registers. Mobility and HIV data were presented descriptively, and an alluvial plot was generated characterizing mobility for participants' most recent trip. Bivariate Poisson regression models were used to describe the associations between long-term mobility (≥1 continuous month away in the past year) and demographic characteristics, retention (≥1 clinic visit/6 months) and long-term mobility, and retention and general mobility (during any follow-up month: ≥2 trips, travel outside the district or further, or spending >1-2 weeks (8-14 nights) away).

Findings

Mobility data were provided by 479 participants. At baseline, 67 participants (14%) were considered long-term mobile. Male sex was associated with an increased probability of long-term mobility (RR 2.02; 95%CI: 1.30-3.14, p < 0.01). In follow-up, 185 participants (60% of respondents) were considered generally mobile. Reasons for travel included obtaining food or supporting farming activities (45% of trips) and work or trade (33% of trips). Retention in HIV care was found for 417 (87%) participants. Long-term mobility was associated with a 14% (RR 0.86; 95%CI: 0.75-0.98) lower likelihood of retention (p = 0.03).

Conclusions

Refugees and Ugandan nationals accessing HIV care in refugee settlements frequently travel to support their survival needs. Mobility is associated with inferior retention and should be considered in interventions to optimize HIV care.

Migrant men and HIV care engagement in Johannesburg, South Africa

BACKGROUND

South Africa (SA) has one of the highest rates of migration on the continent, largely comprised of men seeking labor opportunities in urban centers. Migrant men are at risk for challenges engaging in HIV care. However, rates of HIV and patterns of healthcare engagement among migrant men in urban Johannesburg are poorly understood.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 150 adult men (≥ 18 years) recruited in 10/2020-11/2020 at one of five sites in Johannesburg, Gauteng Province, SA where migrants typically gather for work, shelter, transit, or leisure: a factory, building materials store, homeless shelter, taxi rank, and public park. Participants were surveyed to assess migration factors (e.g., birth location, residency status), self-reported HIV status, and use and knowledge of HIV and general health services. Proportions were calculated with descriptive statistics. Associations between migration factors and health outcomes were examined with Fisher exact tests and logistic regression models. Internal migrants, who travel within the country, were defined as South African men born outside Gauteng Province. International migrants were defined as men born outside SA.

RESULTS

Two fifths (60/150, 40%) of participants were internal migrants and one fifth (33/150, 22%) were international migrants. More internal migrants reported living with HIV than non-migrants (20% vs 6%, p = 0.042), though in a multi-variate analysis controlling for age, being an internal migrant was not a significant predictor of self-reported HIV positive status. Over 90% all participants had undergone an HIV test in their lifetime. Less than 20% of all participants had heard of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), with only 12% international migrants having familiarity with PrEP. Over twice as many individuals without permanent residency or citizenship reported "never visiting a health facility," as compared to citizens/permanent residents (28.6% vs. 10.6%, p = 0.073).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study revealed a high proportion of migrants within our community-based sample of men and demonstrated a need for HIV and other healthcare services that effectively reach migrants in Johannesburg. Future research is warranted to further disaggregate this heterogenous population by different dimensions of mobility and to understand how to design HIV programs in ways that will address migrants' challenges.

Geographic Mobility and HIV Care Engagement among People Living with HIV in Rural Kenya and Uganda

INTRODUCTION

Human mobility is a critical aspect of existence and survival, but may compromise care engagement among people living with HIV (PLHIV). We examined the association between various forms of human mobility with retention in HIV care and antiretroviral treatment (ART) interruptions.

METHODS

In a cohort of adult PLHIV in Kenya and Uganda, we collected surveys in 2016 about past 6-month travel and lifetime migration histories, including reasons and locations, and engagement in HIV care defined as (1) discontinuation of care, and (2) history of a treatment interruption among those who remained in care. We estimated associations between mobility and these care engagement outcomes via logistic regression, adjusted for sex, prior mobility, age, region, marital status, household wealth, and education.

RESULTS

Among 1081 participants, 56 (5%) reported having discontinued care; among those in care, 104 (10%) reported treatment interruption. Past-year migration was associated with a higher risk of discontinuation of care (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.98, 95% CI 1.08-3.63). In sex-stratified models, the association was somewhat attenuated in women, but remained robust among men. Past-year migration was associated with reduced odds of having a treatment interruption among men (aOR 0.51, 95% CI 0.34-0.77) but not among women (aOR 2.67, 95% CI 0.78, 9.16). Travel in the past 6 months was not associated with discontinuation of care or treatment interruptions.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed both negative and protective effects of recent migration on care engagement and ART use that were most pronounced among men in this cohort. Migration can break ties to ongoing care, but for men, who have more agency in the decision to migrate, may foster new care and treatment strategies. Strategies that enable health facilities to support individuals throughout the process of transferring care could alleviate the risk of care disengagement.

Prevention, treatment and cure of HIV infection

The development of antiretroviral therapy for the prevention and treatment of HIV infection has been marked by a series of remarkable successes. However, the efforts to develop a vaccine have largely failed, and efforts to discover a cure are only now beginning to gain traction. In this Review, we describe recent progress on all fronts - pre-exposure prophylaxis, vaccines, treatment and cure - and we discuss the unmet needs, both current and in the coming years. We describe the emerging arsenal of drugs, biologics and strategies that will hopefully address these needs. Although HIV research has largely been siloed in the past, this is changing, as the emerging research agenda is marked by multiple cross-discipline synergies and collaborations. As the limitations of antiretroviral drugs as a means to truly end the epidemic are becoming more apparent, there is a great need for continued efforts to develop an effective preventative vaccine and a scalable cure, both of which remain formidable challenges.

Implications of rapid population growth on survey design and HIV estimates in the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS), Uganda

OBJECTIVE

Since rapid population growth challenges longitudinal population-based HIV cohorts in Africa to maintain coverage of their target populations, this study evaluated whether the exclusion of some residents due to growing population size biases key HIV metrics like prevalence and population-level viremia.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Data were obtained from the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) in south central Uganda, an open population-based cohort which began excluding some residents of newly constructed household structures within its surveillance boundaries in 2008. The study includes adults aged 15-49 years who were censused from 2019 to 2020.

MEASURES

We fit ensemble machine learning models to RCCS census and survey data to predict HIV seroprevalence and viremia (prevalence of those with viral load >1000 copies/mL) in the excluded population and evaluated whether their inclusion would change overall estimates.

RESULTS

Of the 24 729 census-eligible residents, 2920 (12%) residents were excluded from the RCCS because they were living in new households. The predicted seroprevalence for these excluded residents was 10.8% (95% CI: 9.6% to 11.8%)-somewhat lower than 11.7% (95% CI: 11.2% to 12.3%) in the observed sample. Predicted seroprevalence for younger excluded residents aged 15-24 years was 4.9% (95% CI: 3.6% to 6.1%)-significantly higher than that in the observed sample for the same age group (2.6% (95% CI: 2.2% to 3.1%)), while predicted seroprevalence for older excluded residents aged 25-49 years was 15.0% (95% CI: 13.3% to 16.4%)-significantly lower than their counterparts in the observed sample (17.2% (95% CI: 16.4% to 18.1%)). Over all ages, the predicted prevalence of viremia in excluded residents (3.7% (95% CI: 3.0% to 4.5%)) was significantly higher than that in the observed sample (1.7% (95% CI: 1.5% to 1.9%)), resulting in a higher overall population-level viremia estimate of 2.1% (95% CI: 1.8% to 2.4%).

CONCLUSIONS

Exclusion of residents in new households may modestly bias HIV viremia estimates and some age-specific seroprevalence estimates in the RCCS. Overall, HIV seroprevalence estimates were not significantly affected.

The Impact of Drought on HIV Care in Rural South Africa: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

This analysis investigates the relationship between drought and antiretroviral treatment (ART) adherence and retention in HIV care in the Hlabisa sub-district, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Data on drought and ART adherence and retention were collated for the study period 2010-2019. Drought was quantified using the 3-month Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) from station data. Adherence, proxied by the Medication Possession Ratio (MPR), and retention data were obtained from the public ART programme database. MPR and retention were calculated from individuals aged 15-59 years who initiated ART between January 2010 and December 2018 and visited clinic through February 2019. Between 01 January 2010 and 31 December 2018, 40,714 individuals started ART in the sub-district and made 1,022,760 ART visits. The SPI showed that 2014-2016 were dry years, with partial recovery after 2016 in the wet years. In the period from 2010 to 2012, mean 6-month MPR increased from 0.85 in July 2010 to a high of 0.92 in December 2012. MPR then decreased steadily through 2013 and 2014 to 0.78 by December 2014. The mean proportion retained in care 6 months after starting ART showed similar trends to MPR, increasing from 86.9% in July 2010 to 91.4% in December 2012. Retention then decreased through 2013, with evidence of a pronounced drop in January 2014 when the odds of retention decreased by 30% (OR = 0.70, CI = 0.53-0.92, P = 0.01) relative to the end of 2013. Adherence and retention in care decreased during the drought years.

Mobility is Associated with Higher-risk Sexual Partnerships Among Both Men and Women in Co-resident Couples in Rural Kenya and Uganda: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

Population mobility is associated with higher-risk sexual behaviors in sub-Saharan Africa and is a key driver of the HIV epidemic. We conducted a longitudinal cohort study to estimate associations between recent mobility (overnight travel away from home in past six months) or migration (changes of residence over defined geopolitical boundaries) and higher-risk sexual behavior among co-resident couples (240 couples aged ≥ 16) from 12 rural communities in Kenya and Uganda. Data on concurrent mobility and sexual risk behaviors were collected every 6-months between 2015 and 2020. We used sex-pooled and sex-stratified multilevel models to estimate associations between couple mobility configurations (neither partner mobile, male mobile/female not mobile, female mobile/male not mobile, both mobile) and the odds of higher-risk (casual, commercial sex worker/client, one night stand, inherited partner, stranger) and concurrent sexual partnerships based on who was mobile. On average across all time points and subjects, mobile women were more likely than non-mobile women to have a higher-risk partner; similarly, mobile men were more likely than non-mobile men to report a higher-risk partnership. Men with work-related mobility versus not had higher odds of higher-risk partnerships. Women with work-related mobility versus not had higher odds of higher-risk partnerships. Couples where both members were mobile versus neither had greater odds of higher-risk partnerships. In analyses using 6-month lagged versions of key predictors, migration events of men, but not women, preceded higher-risk partnerships. Findings demonstrate HIV risks for men and women associated with mobility and the need for prevention approaches attentive to the risk-enhancing contexts of mobility.

Epidemiology of chronic multimorbidity and temporary migration in a rural South African community in health transition: A cross-sectional population-based analysis

Introduction

In sub-Saharan African settings, the increasing non-communicable disease mortality is linked to migration, which disproportionately exposes sub-populations to risk factors for co-occurring HIV and NCDs.

Methods

We examined the prevalence, patterns, and factors associated with two or more concurrent diagnoses of chronic diseases (i.e., multimorbidity) among temporary within-country migrants. Employing a cross-sectional design, our study sample comprised 2144 residents and non-residents 18-40 years interviewed and with measured biomarkers in 2018 in Wave 1 of the Migrant Health Follow-up Study (MHFUS), drawn from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System (AHDSS) in rural north-eastern South Africa. We used modified Poisson regression models to estimate the association between migration status and prevalent chronic multimorbidity conditional on age, sex, education, and healthcare utilisation.

Results

Overall, 301 participants (14%; 95% CI 12.6-15.6), median age 31 years had chronic multimorbidity. Multimorbidity was more prevalent among non-migrants (14.6%; 95% CI 12.8-16.4) compared to migrants (12.8%; 95% CI 10.3-15.7). Non-migrants also had the greatest burden of dual-overlapping chronic morbidities, such as HIV-obesity 5.7%. Multimorbidity was 2.6 times as prevalent (PR 2.65. 95% CI 2.07-3.39) among women compared to men. Among migrants, men, and individuals with secondary or tertiary education manifested lower prevalence of two or more conditions.

Discussion

In a rural community with colliding epidemics, we found low but significant multimorbidity driven by a trio of conditions: HIV, hypertension, and obesity. Understanding the multimorbidity burden associated with early adulthood exposures, including potential protective factors (i.e., migration coupled with education), is a critical first step towards improving secondary and tertiary prevention for chronic disease among highly mobile marginalised sub-populations.

Mobility and ART retention among men in Malawi: a mixed-methods study

INTRODUCTION

Mobility is associated with worse outcomes across the HIV treatment cascade, especially among men. However, little is known about the mechanisms that link mobility and poor HIV outcomes and what types of mobility most increase the risk of treatment interruption among men in southern Africa.

METHODS

From August 2021 to January 2022, we conducted a mixed-methods study with men living with HIV (MLHIV) but not currently receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Malawi. Data collection was embedded within two larger trials (ENGAGE and IDEaL trials). We analysed baseline survey data of 223 men enrolled in the trials who reported being mobile (defined as spending ≥14 nights away from home in the past 12 months) using descriptive statistics and negative binomial regressions. We then recruited 32 men for in-depth interviews regarding their travel experiences and ART utilization. We analysed qualitative data using constant comparative methods.

RESULTS

Survey data showed that 34% of men with treatment interruptions were mobile, with a median of 60 nights away from home in the past 12 months; 69% of trips were for income generation. More nights away from home in the past 12 months and having fewer household assets were associated with longer periods out of care. In interviews, men reported that travel was often unplanned, and men were highly vulnerable to exploitive employer demands, which led to missed appointments and ART interruption. Men made major efforts to stay in care but were often unable to access care on short notice, were denied ART refills at non-home facilities and/or were treated poorly by providers, creating substantial barriers to remaining in and returning to care. Men desired additional multi-month dispensing (MMD), the ability to refill treatment at any facility in Malawi, and streamlined pre-travel refills at home facilities.

CONCLUSIONS

Men prioritize ART and struggle with the trade-offs between their own health and providing for their families. Mobility is an essential livelihood strategy for MLHIV in Malawi, but it creates conflict with ART retention, largely due to inflexible health systems. Targeted counselling and peer support, access to ART services anywhere in the country, and MMD may improve outcomes for mobile men.

Mobility and HIV care engagement: a research agenda

INTRODUCTION

Mobility is common and an essential livelihood strategy in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Mobile people suffer worse outcomes at every stage of the HIV care cascade compared to non-mobile populations. Definitions of mobility vary widely, and research on the role of temporary mobility (as opposed to permanent migration) in HIV treatment outcomes is often lacking. In this article, we review the current landscape of mobility and HIV care research to identify what is already known, gaps in the literature, and recommendations for future research.

DISCUSSION

Mobility in SSA is closely linked to income generation, though caregiving, climate change and violence also contribute to the need to move. Mobility is likely to increase in the coming decades, both due to permanent migration and increased temporary mobility, which is likely much more common. We outline three central questions regarding mobility and HIV treatment outcomes in SSA. First, it is unclear what aspects of mobility matter most for HIV care outcomes and if high-risk mobility can be identified or predicted, which is necessary to facilitate targeted interventions for mobile populations. Second, it is unclear what groups are most vulnerable to mobility-associated treatment interruption and other adverse outcomes. And third, it is unclear what interventions can improve HIV treatment outcomes for mobile populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Mobility is essential for people living with HIV in SSA. HIV treatment programmes and broader health systems must understand and adapt to human mobility, both to promote the rights and welfare of mobile people and to end the HIV pandemic.

Social networks, mobility, and HIV risk among women in the fishing communities of Lake Victoria

BACKGROUND

Population mobility is a demonstrated barrier to reducing HIV incidence. A clear understanding of social networks and their influence on mobility among women in the fishing communities of Lake Victoria may contribute to tailoring effective interventions that suit the needs of these mobile women.

METHODS

A cross-sectional qualitative methods study was conducted to understand mobility patterns among women resident and or working in fishing communities of Lake Victoria in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda. The study was conducted in six fishing communities from March 2018 to June 2019. The communities were purposively selected, based on population size (1000 people or more) and HIV prevalence of > 15% among women aged 18 years or older who had lived in the fishing community for at least six months. In-depth interviews were conducted with 24 key informants and 72 women from the sites in the three countries. Questions focused on women's social networks and other factors that fuelled or facilitated women's mobility as well as challenges they faced due to mobility. Data analysis followed a thematic framework approach.

RESULTS

Different social groupings/networks existed among women in the fishing communities of Lake Victoria. These included female sex workers, women fish processors/traders, women bar workers/owners, restaurant workers, and family networks. Networks encouraged mobility, supporting finding work opportunities, but also increased sexual risks through partner changes. The benefits of networks included information sharing, financial support, and group protection, especially against violence.

CONCLUSION

Social networks and groupings among women in the fishing communities of Lake Victoria could be useful in tailoring HIV prevention and HIV care interventions to suit the needs of these highly mobile populations.

Achieving the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets: a comparative analysis of four large community randomised trials delivering universal testing and treatment to reduce HIV transmission in sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Four large community-randomized trials examining universal testing and treatment (UTT) to reduce HIV transmission were conducted between 2012-2018 in Botswana, Kenya, Uganda, Zambia and South Africa. In 2014, the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets were adopted as a useful metric to monitor coverage. We systematically review the approaches used by the trials to measure intervention delivery, and estimate coverage against the 90-90-90 targets. We aim to provide in-depth understanding of the background contexts and complexities that affect estimation of population-level coverage related to the 90-90-90 targets.

METHODS

Estimates were based predominantly on "process" data obtained during delivery of the interventions which included a combination of home-based and community-based services. Cascade coverage data included routine electronic health records, self-reported data, survey data, and active ascertainment of HIV viral load measurements in the field.

RESULTS

The estimated total adult populations of trial intervention communities included in this study ranged from 4,290 (TasP) to 142,250 (Zambian PopART Arm-B). The estimated total numbers of PLHIV ranged from 1,283 (TasP) to 20,541 (Zambian PopART Arm-B). By the end of intervention delivery, the first-90 target (knowledge of HIV status among all PLHIV) was met by all the trials (89.2%-94.0%). Three of the four trials also achieved the second- and third-90 targets, and viral suppression in BCPP and SEARCH exceeded the UNAIDS target of 73%, while viral suppression in the Zambian PopART Arm-A and B communities was within a small margin (~ 3%) of the target.

CONCLUSIONS

All four UTT trials aimed to implement wide-scale testing and treatment for HIV prevention at population level and showed substantial increases in testing and treatment for HIV in the intervention communities. This study has not uncovered any one estimation approach which is superior, rather that several approaches are available and researchers or policy makers seeking to measure coverage should reflect on background contexts and complexities that affect estimation of population-level coverage in their specific settings. All four trials surpassed UNAIDS targets for universal testing in their intervention communities ahead of the 2020 milestone. All but one of the trials also achieved the 90-90 targets for treatment and viral suppression. UTT is a realistic option to achieve 95-95-95 by 2030 and fast-track the end of the HIV epidemic.

Predictors of migration in an HIV hyper-endemic rural South African community: evidence from a population-based cohort (2005-2017)

Globally, South Africa hosts the highest number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) and the unique legacy of internal labour migration continues to be a major driver of the regional epidemic, interrupting treatment-as-prevention efforts. The study examined levels, trends, and predictors of migration in rural KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, using population-based surveillance data from 2005 through 2017. We followed 69 604 adult participants aged 15-49 years and recorded their migration events (i.e., out-migration from the surveillance area) in 423 038 person-years over 525 397 observations. Multiple failure Cox-regression models were used to measure the risk of migration by socio-demographic factors: age, sex, educational status, marital status, HIV, and community antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage. Overall, 69% of the population cohort experienced at least one migration event during the follow-up period. The average incidence rate of migration was 9.96 events and 13.23 events per 100 person-years in women and men, respectively. Migration rates declined from 2005 to 2008 then peaked in 2012 for both women and men. Adjusting for other covariates, the risk of migration was 3.4-times higher among young women aged 20-24 years compared to those aged ≥ 40 years (adjusted Hazard Ratio [aHR] = 3.37, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 3:19-3.57), and 2.9-times higher among young men aged 20-24 years compared to those aged ≥ 40 years (aHR = 2.86, 95% CI:2.69-3.04). There was a 9% and 27% decrease in risk of migration among both women (aHR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.83 - 0.99) and men (aHR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.66 - 0.82) respectively per every 1% increase in community ART coverage. Young unmarried women including those living with HIV, migrated at a magnitude similar to that of their male counterparts, and lowered as ART coverage increased over time, reflecting the role of improved HIV services across space in reducing out-migration. A deeper understanding of the characteristics of a migrating population provides critical information towards identifying and addressing gaps in the HIV prevention and care continuum in an era of high mobility.

Point-of-care CD4 testing: Differentiated care for the most vulnerable

Background

South Africa, with the highest burden of HIV infection globally, has made huge strides in its HIV/ART programme, but AIDS deaths have not decreased proportionally to ART uptake. Advanced HIV disease (CD4 < 200 cells/mm³) persists, and CD4 count testing is being overlooked since universal test-and-treat was implemented. Point-of-care CD4 testing could address this gap and assure differentiated care to these vulnerable patients with low CD4 counts.

Methods

A time randomised implementation trial was conducted, enrolling 603 HIV positive non-ART, not pregnant patients at a primary health care clinic in Durban, South Africa. Weeks were randomised to either point-of-care CD4 testing (n = 305 patients) or standard-of-care central laboratory CD4 testing (n = 298 patients) to assess the proportion initiating ART at 3 months. Cox regression, with robust standard errors adjusting for clustering by week, were used to assess the relationship between treatment initiation and arm.

Results

Among the 578 (299 point-of-care and 279 standard-of-care) patients eligible for analysis, there was no significant difference in the number of eligible patients initiating ART within 3 months in the point-of-care (73%) and the standard-of-care (68%) groups (P = 0.112). The time-to-treat analysis was not significantly different in patients with CD4 counts of 201-500 cells/mm³ which could have been due to appointment scheduling to cope with the large burden of cases. However, in patients with advanced HIV disease (CD4 < 200cells/mm³) 65% more patients started ART earlier in the point-of-care group (HR 1.65 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.99-2.75; P = 0.052) compared to the standard-of-care group.

Conclusions

Point-of-care testing decreased time-to-treatment in those with advanced HIV disease. With universal test and treat for HIV, rollout of simple point-of-care CD4 testing would ensure early diagnosis of advanced HIV disease and facilitate differentiated care for these vulnerable patients as per the World Health Organisation 2020 target product profile for point-of-care CD4 testing.

Trial registration

ISRCTN14220457.

Quantifying clinic transfers among people living with HIV in the Western Cape, South Africa: a retrospective spatial analysis

OBJECTIVES

For persons living with HIV (PLWH) in long-term care, clinic transfers are common and influence sustained engagement in HIV care, as they are associated with significant time out-of-care, low CD4 count, and unsuppressed viral load on re-entry. Despite the geospatial nature of clinic transfers, there exist limited data on the geospatial trends of clinic transfers to guide intervention development. In this study, we investigate the geospatial characteristics and trends of clinic transfers among PLWH on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the Western Cape Province of South Africa.

DESIGN

Retrospective spatial analysis.

SETTING

PLWH who initiated ART treatment between 2012 and 2016 in South Africa's Western Cape Province were followed from ART initiation to their last visit prior to 2017. Deidentified electronic medical records from all public clinical, pharmacy, and laboratory visits in the Western Cape were linked across space and time using a unique patient identifier number.

PARTICIPANTS

4176 ART initiators in South Africa (68% women).

METHODS

We defined a clinic transfer as any switch between health facilities that occurred on different days and measured the distance between facilities using geodesic distance. We constructed network flow maps to evaluate geospatial trends in clinic transfers over time, both for individuals' first transfer and overall.

RESULTS

Two-thirds of ART initiators transferred health facilities at least once during follow-up. Median distance between all clinic transfer origins and destinations among participants was 8.6 km. Participant transfers were heavily clustered around Cape Town. There was a positive association between time on ART and clinic transfer distance, both among participants' first transfers and overall.

CONCLUSION

This study is among the first to examine geospatial trends in clinic transfers over time among PLWH. Our results make clear that clinic transfers are common and can cluster in urban areas, necessitating better integrated health information systems and HIV care.

Migration in Namibia and its association with HIV acquisition and treatment outcomes

BACKGROUND

In the 21st century, understanding how population migration impacts human health is critical. Namibia has high migration rates and HIV prevalence, but little is known about how these intersect. We examined the association between migration and HIV-related outcomes using data from the 2017 Namibia Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (NAMPHIA).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The NAMPHIA survey selected a nationally representative sample of adults in 2017. All adults aged 15-64 years were invited to complete an interview and home-based HIV test. Recent infection (<130 days) was measured using HIV-1 LAg avidity combined with viral load (>1000 copies/mL) and antiretroviral analyte data. Awareness of HIV status and antiretroviral use were based on self-report and/or detectable antiretrovirals in blood. Viremia was defined as having a viral load ≥1000 copies/mL, including all participants in the denominator regardless of serostatus. We generated community viremia values as a weighted proportion at the EA level, excluding those classified as recently infected. Significant migrants were those who had lived outside their current region or away from home >one month in the past three years. Recent cross-community in-migrants were those who had moved to the community <two years ago. Separate analyses were done to compare significant migrants to non-migrants and recent cross-community in-migrants to those who in-migrated >two years ago to determine the association of migration and timing with recent infection or viral load suppression (VLS). All proportions are weighted. Of eligible adults, we had HIV results and migration data on 9,625 (83.9%) of 11,474 women and 7,291 (73.0%) of 9,990 men. Most respondents (62.5%) reported significant migration. Of cross-community in-migrants, 15.3% were recent. HIV prevalence was 12.6% and did not differ by migration status. Population VLS was 77.4%. Recent cross-community in-migration was associated with recent HIV infection (aOR: 4.01, 95% CI 0.99-16.22) after adjusting for community viremia. Significant migration (aOR 0.73, 95% CI: 0.55-0.97) and recent cross-community in-migration (aOR 0.57, 95% CI: 0.35-0.92) were associated with lower VLS, primarily due to lack of awareness of HIV infection. The study was limited by lack of precise data on trajectory of migration.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a high population-level VLS, Namibia still has migrant populations that are not accessing effective treatment for HIV. Targeting migrants with effective prevention and testing programs in communities with viremia could enable further epidemic control.

Understanding the Reasons for Deferring ART Among Patients Diagnosed Under the Same-Day-ART Policy in Johannesburg, South Africa

We aimed to examine the correlates of antiretroviral therapy (ART) deferral to inform ART demand creation and retention interventions for patients diagnosed with HIV during the Universal Test and Treat (UTT) policy in South Africa. We conducted a cohort study enrolling newly diagnosed HIV-positive adults (≥ 18 years), at four primary healthcare clinics in Johannesburg between October 2017 and August 2018. Patients were interviewed immediately after HIV diagnosis, and ART initiation was determined through medical record review up to six-months post-test. ART deferral was defined as not starting ART six months after HIV diagnosis. Participants who were not on ART six-months post-test were traced and interviewed telephonically to determine reasons for ART deferral. Modified Poisson regression was used to evaluate correlates of six-months ART deferral. We adjusted for baseline demographic and clinical factors. We present crude and adjusted risk ratios (aRR) associated with ART deferral. Overall, 99/652 (15.2%) had deferred ART by six months, 20.5% men and 12.2% women. Baseline predictors of ART deferral were older age at diagnosis (adjusted risk ratio (aRR) 1.5 for 30-39.9 vs 18-29.9 years, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.0-2.2), disclosure of intentions to test for HIV (aRR 2.2 non-disclosure vs disclosure to a partner/spouse, 95% CI: 1.4-3.6) and HIV testing history (aRR 1.7 for  > 12 months vs < 12 months/no prior test, 95% CI: 1.0-2.8). Additionally, having a primary house in another country (aRR 2.1 vs current house, 95% CI: 1.4-3.1) and testing alone (RR 4.6 vs partner/spouse support, 95% CI: 1.2-18.3) predicted ART deferral among men. Among the 43/99 six-months interviews, women (71.4%) were more likely to self-report ART initiation than men (RR 0.4, 95% CI: 0.2-0.8) and participants who relocated within SA (RR 2.1 vs not relocated, 95% CI: 1.2-3.5) were more likely to still not be on ART. Under the treat-all ART policy, nearly 15.2% of study participants deferred ART initiation up to six months after the HIV diagnosis. Our analysis highlighted the need to pay particular attention to patients who show little social preparation for HIV testing and mobile populations.

Treatment as Prevention: Concepts and Challenges for Reducing HIV Incidence

Four of the largest HIV prevention trials have been conducted in sub-Saharan Africa, enrolling hundreds of thousands of participants in catchment areas of millions of people. The trials have focused on community-level interventions to increase diagnosis and initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) to improve health and reduce HIV transmission. Universal test-and-treat strategies are deployed to achieve viral suppression thereby reducing risk to uninfected persons, known as treatment as prevention (TasP).

Limitations of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 metrics: a simulation-based comparison of cross-sectional and longitudinal metrics for the HIV care continuum

The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90–90–90 and other cross-sectional metrics can lead to potentially counterintuitive conclusions when used to evaluate health systems’ performance. This study demonstrates how time and population dynamics impact UNAIDS 90–90–90 metrics in comparison with a longitudinal analogue.

Mobility and its Effects on HIV Acquisition and Treatment Engagement: Recent Theoretical and Empirical Advances

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

We reviewed literature across multiple disciplines to describe issues with the measurement of population mobility in HIV research and to summarize evidence of causal pathways linking mobility to HIV acquisition risks and treatment engagement, with a focus on sub-Saharan Africa.

RECENT FINDINGS

While the literature on mobility and HIV remains hampered by problems and inconsistency in measures of mobility, the recent research reveals a turn towards a greater attentiveness to measurement and gender. Theoretical and heuristic models for the study of mobility and HIV acquisition and treatment outcomes have been published, but few studies have used longitudinal designs with clear ascertainment of exposures and outcomes for measurement of causal pathways. Notwithstanding these limitations, evidence continues to accumulate that mobility is linked to higher HIV incidence, and that it challenges optimal treatment engagement. Gender continues to be important: while men are more mobile than women, women's mobility particularly heightens their HIV acquisition risks. Recent large-scale efforts to find, test, and treat the individuals in communities who are most at risk of sustaining local HIV transmission have been severely challenged by mobility. Novel interventions, policies, and health systems improvements are urgently needed to fully engage mobile individuals in HIV care and prevention. Interventions targeting the HIV prevention and care needs of mobile populations remain few in number and urgently needed.

HIV testing and treatment coverage achieved after 4 years across 14 urban and peri-urban communities in Zambia and South Africa: An analysis of findings from the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial

BACKGROUND

In 2014, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) set the 90-90-90 targets: that 90% of people living with HIV know their HIV status, that 90% of those who know their HIV-positive status are on antiretroviral therapy (ART), and that 90% of those on treatment are virally suppressed. The aim was to reach these targets by 2020. We assessed the feasibility of achieving the first two targets, and the corresponding 81% ART coverage target, as part of the HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 071 Population Effects of Antiretroviral Therapy to Reduce HIV Transmission (PopART) community-randomized trial.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The study population was individuals aged ≥15 years living in 14 urban and peri-urban "PopART intervention" communities in Zambia and South Africa (SA), with a total population of approximately 600,000 and approximately 15% adult HIV prevalence. Community HIV care providers (CHiPs) delivered the PopART intervention during 2014-2017. This was a combination HIV prevention package including universal home-based HIV testing, referral of HIV-positive individuals to government HIV clinic services that offered universal ART (Arm A) or ART according to national guidelines (Arm B), and revisits to HIV-positive individuals to support linkage to HIV care and retention on ART. The intervention was delivered in 3 "rounds," each about 15 months long, during which CHiPs visited all households and aimed to contact all individuals aged ≥15 years at least once. In Arm A in Round 3 (R3), 67% (41,332/61,402) of men and 86% (56,345/65,896) of women in Zambia and 56% (17,813/32,095) of men and 71% (24,461/34,514) of women in SA participated in the intervention, among 193,907 residents aged ≥15 years. Following participation, HIV status was known by 90% of men and women in Zambia and by 78% of men and 85% of women in SA. The median time from CHiP referral of HIV-positive individuals to ART initiation was approximately 3 months. By the end of R3, an estimated 95% of HIV-positive women and 85% of HIV-positive men knew their HIV status, and among these individuals, approximately 90% of women and approximately 85% of men were on ART. ART coverage among all HIV-positive individuals was approximately 85% in women and approximately 75% in men, up from about 45% at the start of the study. ART coverage was lowest among men aged 18 to 34 and women aged 15 to 24 years, and among mobile individuals/in-migrants. Findings from Arm B were similar. The main limitations to our study were that estimates of testing and treatment coverage among men relied on considerable extrapolation because, in each round, approximately one-third of men did not participate in the PopART intervention; that our findings are for a service delivery model that was relatively intensive; and that we did not have comparable data from the 7 "standard-of-care" (Arm C) communities.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed that very high HIV testing and treatment coverage can be achieved through persistent delivery of universal testing, facilitated linkage to HIV care, and universal treatment services. The ART coverage target of 81% was achieved overall, after 4 years of delivery of the PopART intervention, though important gaps remained among men and young people. Our findings are consistent with previously reported findings from southern and east Africa, extending their generalisability to urban settings with high rates of in-migration and mobility and to Zambia and SA.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01900977.

Household-focused interventions to enhance the treatment and management of HIV in low- and middle-income countries: a scoping review

Background

HIV remains a major public health challenge in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The initiation of a greater number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) onto antiretroviral therapy (ART) following the World Health Organization’s ‘universal test and treat’ recommendation has the potential to overstretch already challenged health systems in LMICs. While various mainstream and community-based care models have been implemented to improve the treatment outcomes of PLHIV, little effort has been made to harness the potential of the families or households of PLHIV to enhance their treatment outcomes. To this end, we sought to explore the characteristics and effectiveness of household-focused interventions in LMICs on the management of HIV as measured by levels of adherence, viral suppression and different dimensions of HIV competence. Additionally, we sought to explore the mechanisms of change to explain how the interventions achieved the expected outcomes.

Methods

We systematically reviewed the literature published from 2003 to 2018, obtained from six electronic databases. We thematically analysed the 11 selected articles guided by the population, intervention, comparison and outcome (PICO) framework. Following the generative causality logic, whereby mechanisms are postulated to mediate an intervention and the outcomes, we applied a mechanism-based inferential reasoning, retroduction, to identify the mechanisms underlying the interventions to understand how these interventions are expected to work.

Results

The identified HIV-related interventions with a household focus were multi-component and multi-dimensional, incorporating aspects of information sharing on HIV; improving communication; stimulating social support and promoting mental health. Most of the interventions sought to empower and stimulate self-efficacy while strengthening the perceived social support of the PLHIV. Studies reported a significant positive impact on improving various aspects of HIV competent household – positive effects on HIV knowledge, communication between household members, and improved mental health outcomes of youths living in HIV-affected households.

Conclusion

By aiming to strengthen the perceived social support and self-efficacy of PLHIV, household-focused HIV interventions can address various aspects of household HIV competency. Nevertheless, the role of the household as an enabling resource to improve the outcomes of PLHIV remains largely untapped by public HIV programmes; more research on improving household HIV competency is therefore required.

Trial registration

PROSPERO registration: CRD42018094383.

People don't live on the care cascade: The life of the HIV care cascade as an international AIDS policy and its implications

This article analyses how the HIV care cascade, an analytical tool, has become a policy practice that determines the direction and content of international AIDS policy. It traces the development of the cascade through from its emergence around 2011 to its position framing global AIDS policy by 2018. The article distinguishes between the cascade model as a mapping tool and the care cascade as a policy that aims to end the AIDS epidemic. It then argues that the move from an analytical to a policy tool has important implications, both for the scope of policies and for policy-relevant research. It concludes by considering its implications in determining policy direction. The qualitative research that informs the article is based on published care cascade research and policy documents, and observations of the presentations and discussions at the 2012 and 2018 International AIDS Conferences (IAS). The article uses textual analysis to develop its argument.

Temporal trends of population viral suppression in the context of Universal Test and Treat: the ANRS 12249 TasP trial in rural South Africa

INTRODUCTION

The universal test-and-treat (UTT) strategy aims to maximize population viral suppression (PVS), that is, the proportion of all people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral treatment (ART) and virally suppressed, with the goal of reducing HIV transmission at the population level. This article explores the extent to which temporal changes in PVS explain the observed lack of association between universal treatment and cumulative HIV incidence seen in the ANRS 12249 TasP trial conducted in rural South Africa.

METHODS

The TasP cluster-randomized trial (2012 to 2016) implemented six-monthly repeat home-based HIV counselling and testing (RHBCT) and referral of PLHIV to local HIV clinics in 2 × 11 clusters opened sequentially. ART was initiated according to national guidelines in control clusters and regardless of CD4 count in intervention clusters. We measured residency status, HIV status, and HIV care status for each participant on a daily basis. PVS was computed per cluster among all resident PLHIV (≥16, including those not in care) at cluster opening and daily thereafter. We used a mixed linear model to explore time patterns in PVS, adjusting for sociodemographic changes at the cluster level.

RESULTS

8563 PLHIV were followed. During the course of the trial, PVS increased significantly in both arms (23.5% to 46.2% in intervention, +22.8, p < 0.001; 26.0% to 44.6% in control, +18.6, p < 0.001). That increase was similar in both arms (p = 0.514). In the final adjusted model, PVS increase was most associated with increased RHBCT and the implementation of local trial clinics (measured by time since cluster opening). Contextual changes (measured by calendar time) also contributed slightly. The effect of universal ART (trial arm) was positive but limited.

CONCLUSIONS

PVS was improved significantly but similarly in both trial arms, explaining partly the null effect observed in terms of cumulative HIV incidence between arms. The PVS gains due to changes in ART-initiation guidelines alone are relatively small compared to gains obtained by strategies to maximize testing and linkage to care. The achievement of the 90-90-90 targets will not be met if the operational and implementational challenges limiting access to care and treatment, often context-specific, are not properly addressed. Clinical trial number: NCT01509508 (clinicalTrials.gov)/DOH-27-0512-3974 (South African National Clinical Trials Register).

"It's Not Like Taking Chocolates": Factors Influencing the Feasibility and Sustainability of Universal Test and Treat in Correctional Health Systems in Zambia and South Africa

BACKGROUND

Sub-Saharan African correctional facilities concentrate large numbers of people who are living with HIV or at risk for HIV infection. Universal test and treat (UTT) is widely recognized as a promising approach to improve the health of individuals and a population health strategy to reduce new HIV infections. In this study, we explored the feasibility and sustainability of implementing UTT in correctional facilities in Zambia and South Africa.

METHODS

Nested within a UTT implementation research study, our qualitative evaluation of feasibility and sustainability used a case-comparison design based on data from 1 Zambian and 3 South African correctional facilities. Primary data from in-depth interviews with incarcerated individuals, correctional managers, health care providers, and policy makers were supplemented by public policy documents, study documentation, and implementation memos in both countries. Thematic analysis was informed by an empirically established conceptual framework for health system analysis.

RESULTS

Despite different institutional profiles, we were able to successfully introduce UTT in the South Africa and Zambian correctional facilities participating in the study. A supportive policy backdrop was important to UTT implementation and establishment in both countries. However, sustainability of UTT, defined as relevant government departments' capacity to independently plan, resource, and administer quality UTT, differed. South Africa's correctional facilities had existing systems to deliver and monitor chronic HIV care and treatment, forming a "scaffolding" for sustained UTT despite some human resources shortages and poorly integrated health information systems. Notwithstanding recent improvements, Zambia's correctional health system demonstrated insufficient material and technical capacity to independently deliver quality UTT. In the correctional facilities of both countries, inmate population dynamics and their impact on HIV-related stigma were important factors in UTT service uptake.

CONCLUSION

Findings demonstrate the critical role of policy directives, health service delivery systems, adequate resourcing, and population dynamics on the feasibility and likely sustainability of UTT in corrections in Zambia and South Africa.

Why Everyone (Almost) with HIV Needs to Be on Treatment: A Review of the Critical Data

Since 2014, a consensus of landmark studies has justified starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) regardless of CD4 count. The evidence for immediate and universal ART is strong, clearly showing individual and population-level benefits, and is supported by all major guidelines groups. Altogether, improvements in ART and recognition of its clinical and epidemiologic benefits justify near-universal ART, preferably as soon after the diagnosis of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) as possible. Case-based discussions provide a framework to explore the evidence behind the current recommendation for ART for all HIV-positive persons and specific scenarios are discussed in which ART initiation may be delayed.

ART adherence and viral suppression are high among most non-pregnant individuals with early-stage, asymptomatic HIV infection: an observational study from Uganda and South Africa

INTRODUCTION

The success of universal antiretroviral therapy (ART) access and aspirations for an AIDS-free generation depend on high adherence in individuals initiating ART during early-stage HIV infection; however, adherence may be difficult in the absence of illness and associated support.

METHODS

From March 2015 to October 2017, we prospectively observed three groups initiating ART in routine care in Uganda and South Africa: men and non-pregnant women with early-stage HIV infection (CD4 > 350 cells/μL), pregnant women with early-stage HIV infection and men and non-pregnant women with late-stage HIV infection (CD4 < 200 cells/μL). Socio-behavioural questionnaires were administered and viral loads were performed at 0, 6 and 12 months. Adherence was monitored electronically.

RESULTS

Adherence data were available for 869 participants: 322 (37%) early/non-pregnant, 199 (23%) early/pregnant and 348 (40%) late/non-pregnant participants. In Uganda, median adherence was 89% (interquartile range 74 to 96) and viral suppression was 90% at 12 months; neither differed among groups (p > 0.72). In South Africa, median adherence was higher in early/non-pregnant versus early/pregnant or late/non-pregnant participants (76%, 37%, 52%; p < 0.001), with similar trends in viral suppression (86%, 51%, 79%; p < 0.001). Among early/non-pregnant individuals in Uganda, adherence was higher with increasing age and lower with structural barriers; whereas in South Africa, adherence was higher with regular income, higher perceived stigma and use of other medications, but lower with maladaptive coping and cigarette smoking.

DISCUSSION

ART adherence among non-pregnant individuals with early-stage infection is as high or higher than with late-stage initiation, supporting universal access to ART. Challenges remain for some pregnant women and individuals with late-stage infection in South Africa and highlight the need for differentiated care delivery.

Accessing ART in Malawi while living in South Africa - a thematic analysis of qualitative data from undocumented Malawian migrants

The majority of international migrants from Malawi to South Africa are undocumented, and some of them are on ART. This study explored how these migrants manage to access ART. Qualitative data were collected using open-ended questions in semi-structured interviews. 23 returned undocumented Malawian migrants from South Africa participated in the study. Also, key informant discussions were held with three health workers. Data collection took place in April and May 2015 at a rural village of Namwera in Mangochi district in southern Malawi. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed and translated into English for thematic analysis. The guardians collected ART from health facilities in Malawi on behalf of the migrants. The guardians sent ART through truck and bus drivers to the migrants in South Africa. The migrants shared their ART. Others bought ART from the 'street pharmacies'. Others accessed ART from South African health facilities through the help of their South African friends. There are risks to dispensing ART to the migrants who do not themselves present at health facilities. There is value to more regular contacts between clients and health service system that is compromised by alternative strategies. It is better to deliver ART services in South Africa to the undocumented migrants.