Layering and scaling up chronic non-communicable disease care on existing HIV care systems and acute care settings in Kenya: a cost and budget impact analysis

Economic outcomes among microfinance group members receiving community-based chronic disease care: Cluster randomized trial evidence from Kenya

BACKGROUND

Poverty can be a robust barrier to HIV care engagement. We assessed the extent to which delivering care for HIV, diabetes and hypertension within community-based microfinance groups increased savings and reduced loan defaults among microfinance members living with HIV.

METHODS

We analyzed cluster randomized trial data ascertained during November 2020-May 2023 from 57 self-formed microfinance groups in western Kenya. Groups were randomized 1:1 to receive care for HIV and non-communicable diseases in the community during regular microfinance meetings (intervention) or at a health facility during routine appointments (standard care). Community and facility care provided clinical evaluations, medications, and point-of-care testing. The trial enrolled 900 microfinance members, with data collected quarterly for 18-months. We used a two-part model to estimate intervention effects on microfinance shares purchased, and a negative binomial regression model to estimate differences in loan default rates between trial arms. We estimated effects overall and by participant characteristics.

RESULTS

Participants' median age and distance from a health facility was 52 years and 5.6 km, respectively, and 50% reported earning less than $50 per month. The probability of saving any amount (>$0) through purchasing microfinance shares was 2.7 percentage points higher among microfinance group members receiving community vs. facility care. Community care recipients and facility care patients saved $44.90 and $25.24 over 18-months, respectively, and the additional amount saved by community care recipients was statistically significant (p = 0.036). Overall and in stratified analyses, loan defaults rates were not statistically significantly different between community and facility care patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Receiving integrated care in the community was significantly associated with modest increases in savings. We did not find any significant association between community-delivered care and reductions in loan defaults among HIV-positive microfinance group members. Longer follow up examination and formal mediation analyses are warranted.

Gaussian process emulation to improve efficiency of computationally intensive multidisease models: a practical tutorial with adaptable R code

BACKGROUND

The rapidly growing burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has expanded the number of multidisease models predicting future care needs and health system priorities. Usefulness of these models depends on their ability to replicate real-life data and be readily understood and applied by public health decision-makers; yet existing simulation models of HIV comorbidities are computationally expensive and require large numbers of parameters and long run times, which hinders their utility in resource-constrained settings.

METHODS

We present a novel, user-friendly emulator that can efficiently approximate complex simulators of long-term HIV and NCD outcomes in Africa. We describe how to implement the emulator via a tutorial based on publicly available data from Kenya. Emulator parameters relating to incidence and prevalence of HIV, hypertension and depression were derived from our own agent-based simulation model and other published literature. Gaussian processes were used to fit the emulator to simulator estimates, assuming presence of noise for design points. Bayesian posterior predictive checks and leave-one-out cross validation confirmed the emulator's descriptive accuracy.

RESULTS

In this example, our emulator resulted in a 13-fold (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 8-22) improvement in computing time compared to that of more complex chronic disease simulation models. One emulator run took 3.00 seconds (95% CI: 1.65-5.28) on a 64-bit operating system laptop with 8.00 gigabytes (GB) of Random Access Memory (RAM), compared to > 11 hours for 1000 simulator runs on a high-performance computing cluster with 1500 GBs of RAM. Pareto k estimates were < 0.70 for all emulations, which demonstrates sufficient predictive accuracy of the emulator.

CONCLUSIONS

The emulator presented in this tutorial offers a practical and flexible modelling tool that can help inform health policy-making in countries with a generalized HIV epidemic and growing NCD burden. Future emulator applications could be used to forecast the changing burden of HIV, hypertension and depression over an extended (> 10 year) period, estimate longer-term prevalence of other co-occurring conditions (e.g., postpartum depression among women living with HIV), and project the impact of nationally-prioritized interventions such as national health insurance schemes and differentiated care models.

Pulmonary function tests and their associated factors in people living with HIV at Jimma medical center; Ethiopia: a comparative cross-sectional study

Background

People living with HIV (PLHIV) have a greater risk of developing respiratory disorders. The problems are linked to poor socio-economic status, high viral load, low CD4 counts, and antiretroviral therapy. Despite the high prevalence of respiratory disorders, the association between HIV infection and pulmonary function status, as well as the associated factors, is not well established in resource-limited countries.

Methods

A comparative cross-sectional study was conducted from September 24 to October 15 2020 at Jimma Medical Center among people living with HIV who were arranged into an age-sex-matched comparison group. Data were collected using a pretested structured questionnaire administered via face-to-face interviews. The collected data included socio-demographic, respiratory, HIV infection, and substance use variables. Pulmonary function tests were conducted using an SP10 spirometer. The collected data were entered and analyzed using SPSS version 26. Independent t-test and multiple linear regressions were carried out to identify factors associated with the pulmonary function status of the study participants.

Results

A total of 96 PLHIV and 96 matched control individuals participated in the study. The mean of pulmonary function test parameters among the PLHIV respondents was FVC (l) (67.35 ± 19.12, p0.003), FEV1s (l) (61.76 ± 16.04, p0.001), and PEFR (50.14 ± 23.32, p0.001), with a significant lowering in the study group. Female sex, respiratory symptoms, duration of HIV, duration of treatment, and khat chewing were associated with lowered FEV1s (l) (p < 0.05) in HIV-positive respondents.

Conclusion

PLHIV had significantly lower mean lung function parameters than HIV-uninfected participants. As a result, health providers should screen HIV-positive patients with respiratory symptoms, prolonged duration of HIV infection, prolonged treatment, and khat chewing for non-infectious lung disorders while treating them.

Integrating community-based HIV and non-communicable disease care with microfinance groups: a feasibility study in Western Kenya

BACKGROUND

The Harambee study is a cluster randomized trial in Western Kenya that tests the effect, mechanisms, and cost-effectiveness of integrating community-based HIV and non-communicable disease care within microfinance groups on chronic disease treatment outcomes. This paper documents the stages of our feasibility study conducted in preparation for the Harambee trial, which include (1) characterizing the target population and gauging recruitment capacity, (2) determining community acceptability of the integrated intervention and study procedures, and (3) identifying key implementation considerations prior to study start.

METHODS

Feasibility research took place between November 2019 and February 2020 in Western Kenya. Mixed methods data collection included surveys administered to 115 leaders of 105 community-based microfinance groups, 7 in-person meetings and two workshops with stakeholders from multiple sectors of the health system, and ascertainment of field notes and geographic coordinates for group meeting locations and HIV healthcare facilities. Quantitative survey data were analyzed using STATA IC/13. Longitude and latitude coordinates were mapped to county boundaries using Esri ArcMap. Qualitative data obtained from stakeholder meetings and field notes were analyzed thematically.

RESULTS

Of the 105 surveyed microfinance groups, 77 met eligibility criteria. Eligible groups had been in existence from 6 months to 18 years and had an average of 22 members. The majority (64%) of groups had at least one member who owned a smartphone. The definition of "active" membership and model of saving and lending differed across groups. Stakeholders perceived the community-based intervention and trial procedures to be acceptable given the minimal risks to participants and the potential to improve HIV treatment outcomes while facilitating care integration. Potential challenges identified by stakeholders included possible conflicts between the trial and existing community-based interventions, fear of group disintegration prior to trial end, clinicians' inability to draw blood for viral load testing in the community, and deviations from standard care protocols.

CONCLUSIONS

This study revealed that it was feasible to recruit the number of microfinance groups necessary to ensure that our clinical trial was sufficient powered. Elicitation of stakeholder feedback confirmed that the planned intervention was largely acceptable and was critical to identifying challenges prior to implementation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The original trial was prospectively registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04417127) on 4 June 2020.

Trend Analysis of the Mortality Rates of the Top Three Causes of Death Among Chinese Residents from 2003 to 2019

Objective: To delineate the mortality trends of malignant tumors, heart disease and cerebrovascular disease in China.

Methods: The crude mortality from 2003 to 2019 was derived from the China Health Statistical Yearbook, and the mortality rates were analyzed through joinpoint regression supplemented by descriptive statistics and χ2 tests.

Results: The fitting model of age-standardized mortality due to malignant tumors showed three joinpoints. The APCs from 2003 to 2005, 2005–2008, 2008–2012 and 2012–2019 were −11.00%, 9.63%, −4.67% and −1.40%, respectively, and the AAPC was −1.54%. The mortality rate of cerebrovascular disease consistently decreased (APC = AAPC = −0.98%). In the subgroup analyses, significant differences were observed between sexes and regions. The mortality rate of heart disease among rural females exhibited an upward trend (APC = AAPC = 2.33%). Older adults aged over 75 years had the highest mortality rates and the most drastic change.

Conclusion: The three diseases had variable change trends. The government should focus more on policies that promote the equalization of basic public health services. Continuous education on heart disease, which includes not only beneficial behaviors but also knowledge of first aid, should be strengthened for rural females.

HIV Viral Suppression among People Living with HIV on Antiretroviral Therapy in Haut-Katanga and Kinshasa Provinces of Democratic Republic of Congo

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections and less-than-optimal care of people living with HIV (PLHIV) continue to challenge public health and clinical care organizations in the communities that are most impacted by HIV. In the era of evidence-based public health, it is imperative to monitor viral load (VL) in PLHIV according to global and national guidelines and assess the factors associated with variation in VL levels. Purpose: This study had two objectives—(a) to describe the levels of HIV VL in persons on antiretroviral therapy (ART), and (b) to analyze the significance of variation in VL by patients’ demographic and clinical characteristics, outcomes of HIV care, and geographic characteristics of HIV care facilities. Methods: The study population for this quantitative study was 49,460 PLHIV in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) receiving ART from 241 CDC-funded HIV/AIDS clinics in the Haut-Katanga and Kinshasa provinces of the DRC. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed, including Tamhane’s T2 test for pairwise comparisons using de-identified data on all patients enrolled in the system by the time the data were extracted for this study by the HIV programs in May 2019. Results: The VL was undetectable (<40 copies/mL) for 56.4% of the patients and 24.7% had VL between 40 copies/mL and less than 1000 copies per mL, indicating that overall, 81% had VL < 1000 and were virologically suppressed. The remaining 19% had a VL of 1000 copies/mL or higher. The mean VL was significantly (p < 0.001) higher for males than for females (32,446 copies/mL vs. 20,786, respectively), persons <15 years of age compared to persons of ages ≥ 15 years at the time of starting ART (45,753 vs. 21,457, respectively), patients who died (125,086 vs. 22,090), those who were lost to follow-up (LTFU) (69,882 vs. 20,018), those with tuberculosis (TB) co-infection (64,383 vs. 24,090), and those who received care from urban clinics (mean VL = 25,236) compared to rural (mean VL = 3291) or semi-rural (mean VL = 26,180) clinics compared to urban. WHO clinical stages and duration on ART were not statistically significant at p ≤ 0.05 in this cohort. Conclusions: The VL was >1000 copies/mL for 19% of PLHIV receiving ART, indicating that these CDC-funded clinics and programs in the Haut-Katanga and Kinshasa provinces of DRC have more work to do. Strategically designed innovations in services are desirable, with customized approaches targeting PLHIV who are younger, male, those LTFU, with HIV/TB co-infection, and those receiving care from urban clinics.

Leveraging HIV Care Infrastructures for Integrated Chronic Disease and Pandemic Management in Sub-Saharan Africa

In Sub-Saharan Africa, communicable and other tropical infectious diseases remain major challenges apart from the continuing HIV/AIDS epidemic. Recognition and prevalence of non-communicable diseases have risen throughout Africa, and the reimagining of healthcare delivery is needed to support communities coping with not only with HIV, tuberculosis, and COVID-19, but also cancer, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and depression. Many non-communicable diseases can be prevented or treated with low-cost interventions, yet implementation of such care has been limited in the region. In this Perspective piece, we argue that deployment of an integrated service delivery model is an urgent next step, propose a South African model for integration, and conclude with recommendations for next steps in research and implementation. An approach that is inspired by South African experience would build on existing HIV-focused infrastructure that has been developed by Ministries of Health with strong support from the U.S. President’s Emergency Response for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. An integrated chronic healthcare model holds promise to sustainably deliver infectious disease and non-communicable disease care. Integrated care will be especially critical as health systems seek to cope with the unprecedented challenges associated with COVID-19 and future pandemic threats.

Integrated screening and treatment services for HIV, hypertension and diabetes in Kenya: assessing the epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness from a national and regional perspective

INTRODUCTION

As people with HIV age, prevention and management of other communicable and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) will become increasingly important. Integration of screening and treatment for HIV and NCDs is a promising approach for addressing the dual burden of these diseases. The aim of this study was to assess the epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of a community-wide integrated programme for screening and treatment of HIV, hypertension and diabetes in Kenya.

METHODS

Coupling a microsimulation of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) with a population-based model of HIV dynamics (the Spectrum), we created a hybrid HIV/CVD model. Interventions were modelled from year 2019 (baseline) to 2023, and population was followed to 2033. Analyses were carried at a national level and for three selected regions (Nairobi, Coast and Central).

RESULTS

At a national level, the model projected 7.62 million individuals living with untreated hypertension, 692,000 with untreated diabetes and 592,000 individuals in need of ART in year 2018. Improving ART coverage from 68% at baseline to 88% in 2033 reduced HIV incidence by an estimated 64%. Providing NCD treatment to 50% of diagnosed cases from 2019 to 2023 and maintaining them on treatment afterwards could avert 116,000 CVD events and 43,600 CVD deaths in Kenya over the next 15 years. At a regional level, the estimated impact of expanded HIV services was highest in Nairobi region (averting 42,100 HIV infections compared to baseline) while Central region experienced the highest impact of expanded NCD treatment (with a reduction of 22,200 CVD events). The integrated HIV/NCD intervention could avert 7.76 million disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs) over 15 years at an estimated cost of $6.68 billion ($445.27 million per year), or $860.30 per DALY averted. At a cost-effectiveness threshold of $2,010 per DALY averted, the probability of cost-effectiveness was 0.92, ranging from 0.71 in Central to 0.92 in Nairobi region.

CONCLUSIONS

Integrated screening and treatment of HIV and NCDs can be a cost-effective and impactful approach to save lives of people with HIV in Kenya, although important variation exists at the regional level. Containing the substantial costs required for scale-up will be critical for management of HIV and NCDs on a national scale.

Layering and scaling up chronic non-communicable disease care on existing HIV care systems and acute care settings in Kenya: a cost and budget impact analysis

INTRODUCTION

Like many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Kenya is experiencing a rapid rise in the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs): NCDs now contribute to over 50% of inpatient admissions and 40% of hospital deaths in the country. The Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare (AMPATH) Chronic Disease Management (CDM) programme builds on lessons and capacity of HIV care to deliver chronic NCD care layered into both HIV and primary care platforms to over 24,000 patients across 69 health facilities in western Kenya. We conducted a cost and budget impact analysis of scaling up the AMPATH CDM programme in western Kenya using the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research guidelines.

METHODS

Costs of the CDM programme for the health system were measured retrospectively for 69 AMPATH clinics from 2014 to 2018 using programmatic records and clinic schedules to assign per clinic monthly costs. We quantified the additional costs to provide NCD care above those associated with existing HIV or acute care services, including clinician, staff, training, travel and equipment costs, but do not include drugs or consumables as they would be paid by the patient. We projected the budget impact of increasing CDM coverage to 50% of the eligible population from 2021 to 2025, and compared it with the county budgets from 2019.

RESULTS

The per visit cost of providing CDM care was $10.42 (SD $2.26), with costs at facilities added to HIV clinics $1.00 (95% CI: -$2:11 to $0.11) lower than at primary care facilities. The budget impact of adding 26,765 patients from 2021 to 2025 to the CDM programme was 3,088,928 under constant percent growth, and 3,451,732 under steady-state enrolment. Scaling up under the constant percent growth scenario resulted in 12% cost savings in the budget impact. The county programmatic CDM cost in 2025 was <1% of the county healthcare budgets from 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

The budget impact of scaling up AMPATH's CDM programme will be driven by annual growth scenarios, and facility/provider mix. By leveraging task shifting, referral systems and partnering with public and non-profit clinics without NCD services, AMPATH's CDM programme can provide critical NCD care to new, rural populations with minimal financial impact.