Potential global distribution of Diabrotica species and the risks for agricultural production

Modeling the potential global distribution of the invasive Jack Beardsley mealybug (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) under climate change

The Jack Beardsley mealybug, Pseudococcus jackbeardsleyi Gimpel & Miller (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae), is a dangerous invasive pest that feeds on plants more than 115 genera from 54 families, and has spread over 59 countries or regions, often causing direct and indirect damage to host plants, and resulting in significant economic losses. In this study, we assessed the potential global distribution of P. jackbeardsleyi using a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model under current and future climate scenarios. Here, we obtained prediction models with high credibility and accuracy, which showed that isothermality (Bio 3) and annual precipitation (Bio 12) were the environmental variables with the largest contribution on the potential distribution of this pest. The potential distribution areas predicted by this study were mainly located in South America, Central Africa, the southern regions of Asia and the eastern coast of Australia. Under future climate scenarios, the total geographical distribution of this pest will contract to varying degrees by the end of this century, but the highly suitable areas will increase. This study provides a reference for the development of control strategies, but also offers a scientific basis for the effective biological control of this pest.

Know Where You Go: Infestation Dynamics and Potential Distribution of Two Bed Bug Species (Hemiptera: Cimicidae) in Africa

Bed bugs (Hemiptera: Cimicidae) are blood-feeding insects closely linked with humans and animals, causing discomfort, and posing potential threats as disease vectors. This study focuses on Cimex lectularius (common bed bug) and Cimex hemipterus (tropical bed bug), the two key species identified in Africa. Cimex lectularius infests human habitats, while C. hemipterus, more common in Africa, infests diverse habitats, including bat colonies. In our study, we investigated the infestation dynamics and distribution of bed bugs in Africa, when considering climate, habitat, and host availability using system dynamics and ecological niche modelling techniques. System dynamics modelling analyses in Kenya revealed varied infestation dynamics, with Mombasa having high C. lectularius prevalence, Nairobi having lower coexistence, and Makueni/Bomet C. hemipterus showing dominance. Across Africa, C. hemipterus prevails, especially in central and coastal areas, while C. lectularius has lower suitability, with isolated high-suitability zones. Both species coexist in central/southern Africa, parts of the east, and coastal areas in septentrional/west Africa. The Sahara's extreme conditions challenge both bed bug species' survival, emphasizing climate's role in their infestation and distribution dynamics. Insights into bed bug ecology in Africa underscore the need for comprehensive pest management and public health strategies in the continent.

Steering conservation biocontrol at the frontlines: A fuzzy logic approach unleashing potentials of climate-smart intercropping as a component within the integrated management of fall armyworm in Africa

This study introduces a computational index that employs fuzzy sets theory to identify potential deployment sites for push-pull as a component in the integrated management of Fall Armyworm (FAW) in Africa. The index, validated through known push-pull testing sites and informed by insights from field data and practical observations, is primarily based on companion plants (Desmodium intortum and Brachiaria brizantha), livestock, and maize as covariates. The study developed a set of rules linking each selected covariate to the output as membership functions, which are later combined using an algebraic operator. It identifies extensive maize farms across Africa potentially suitable for Push-Pull technology, although the suitability varies by region. Farms in the eastern and southern regions are predicted to be highly suitable, while the suitability of farms in West Africa is expected to improve over time due to the perennial nature and agronomic benefits of companion plants. The index is proposed as a metric for deploying push-pull technology, providing a roadmap for effective agronomic practices in Africa, and assisting farmers and decision-makers in the integrated management of FAW. Overall, our results indicate that the fuzzy-based computational index is an effective tool for identifying potential areas to maximise the benefits of push-pull technology as a key component of integrated FAW management. Our study identifies appropriate areas for application, allowing for the careful use of resources and increasing the likelihood of effective pest management. This approach will ultimately safeguard cereal crops, boost agricultural productivity, and aid in ensuring food security in Africa.

Meta-Analysis and MaxEnt Model Prediction of the Distribution of Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley in China under the Context of Climate Change

Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley is a pest that poses a significant threat to agricultural crops, especially cotton, and is now widely distributed across many regions worldwide. In this study, we performed a meta-analysis on the collected experimental data and found that within the suitable temperature range, the survival rate of P. solenopsis increases with rising temperatures, indicating that climate plays a decisive role in its distribution. Using the MaxEnt model this study predicted that under three future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), the distribution of P. solenopsis will expand and move towards higher latitudes. Climate change is the primary factor influencing changes in pest distribution. We conducted a meta-analysis of P. solenopsis, including seven independent studies covering 221 observation results, and examined the impact of temperature ranging from 18 °C to 39 °C on the developmental cycle of P. solenopsis. As the temperature rises, the development cycle of P. solenopsis gradually decreases. Additionally, by combining the MaxEnt model, we predicted the current and potential future distribution range of P. solenopsis. The results show that under future climate warming, the distribution area of P. solenopsis in China will expand. This research provides a theoretical basis for early monitoring and control of this pest's occurrence and spread. Therefore, the predictive results of this study will provide important information for managers in monitoring P. solenopsis and help them formulate relevant control strategies.

Total synthesis of (6R,12R)-6,12-dimethylpentadecan-2-one, the sex pheromone of Diabrotica balteata LeConte

Diabrotica balteata LeConte is one of the most important polyphagous agricultural pests. The sex pheromone of this pest was synthesized using Evans asymmetric alkylation, ring-opening reaction of (R)-2-methyloxirane, SN 2 alkylation of secondary tosylate, and coupling of chiral tosylate with Grignard reagent as central strategies. The sex pheromone prepared herein would be useful to control D. balteata.

Improving U-net network for semantic segmentation of corns and weeds during corn seedling stage in field

Introduction

Weeds are one of the main factors affecting crop growth, making weed control a pressing global problem. In recent years, interest in intelligent mechanical weed-control equipment has been growing.

Methods

We propose a semantic segmentation network, RDS_Unet, based on corn seedling fields built upon an improved U-net network. This network accurately recognizes weeds even under complex environmental conditions, facilitating the use of mechanical weeding equipment for reducing weed density. Our research utilized field-grown maize seedlings and accompanying weeds in expansive fields. We integrated the U-net semantic segmentation network, employing ResNeXt-50 for feature extraction in the encoder stage. In the decoder phase, Layer 1 uses deformable convolution with adaptive offsets, replacing traditional convolution. Furthermore, concurrent spatial and channel squeeze and excitation is incorporated after ordinary convolutional layers in Layers 2, 3, and 4.

Results

Compared with existing classical semantic segmentation models such as U-net, Pspnet, and DeeplabV3, our model demonstrated superior performance on our specially constructed seedling grass semantic segmentation dataset, CGSSD, during the maize seedling stage. The Q6mean intersection over union (MIoU), precision, and recall of this network are 82.36%, 91.36%, and 89.45%, respectively. Compared to those of the original network, the proposed network achieves improvements of 5.91, 3.50, and 5.49 percentage points in the MIoU, precision, and recall, respectively. The detection speed is 12.6 frames per second. In addition, ablation experiments further confirmed the impactful contribution of each improvement component on the overall semantic segmentation performance.

Discussion

This study provides theoretical and technical support for the automated operation of intelligent mechanical weeding devices.

Early warning and management of invasive crop pests under global warming: estimating the global geographical distribution patterns and ecological niche overlap of three Diabrotica beetles

Invasive alien pests (IAPs) pose a major threat to global agriculture and food production. When multiple IAPs coexist in the same habitat and use the same resources, the economic loss to local agricultural production increases. Many species of the Diabrotica genus, such as Diabrotica barberi, Diabrotica undecimpunctata, and Diabrotica virgifera, originating from the USA and Mexico, seriously damaged maize production in North America and Europe. However, the potential geographic distributions (PGDs) and degree of ecological niche overlap among the three Diabrotica beetles remain unclear; thus, the potential coexistence zone is unknown. Based on environmental and species occurrence data, we used an ensemble model (EM) to predict the PGDs and overlapping PGD of the three Diabrotica beetles. The n-dimensional hypervolumes concept was used to explore the degree of niche overlap among the three species. The EM showed better reliability than the individual models. According to the EM results, the PGDs and overlapping PGD of the three Diabrotica beetles were mainly distributed in North America, Europe, and Asia. Under the current scenario, D. virgifera has the largest PGD ranges (1615 × 104 km2). In the future, the PGD of this species will expand further and reach a maximum under the SSP5-8.5 scenario in the 2050s (2499 × 104 km2). Diabrotica virgifera showed the highest potential for invasion under the current and future global warming scenarios. Among the three studied species, the degree of ecological niche overlap was the highest for D. undecimpunctata and D. virgifera, with the highest similarity in the PGD patterns and maximum coexistence range. Under global warming, the PGDs of the three Diabrotica beetles are expected to expand to high latitudes. Identifying the PGDs of the three Diabrotica beetles provides an important reference for quarantine authorities in countries at risk of invasion worldwide to develop specific preventive measures against pests.

China-US grain trade shapes the spatial genetic pattern of common ragweed in East China cities

Common ragweed is an invasive alien species causing severe allergies in urban residents. Understanding its urban invasion pathways is crucial for effective control. However, knowledge is limited, with most studies focusing on agricultural and natural areas, and occurrence record-based studies exhibiting uncertainties. We address this gap through a study in East China cities, combining population genetics and occurrence records. Leaf samples from 37 urban common ragweed populations across 15 cities are collected. Genomic and chloroplast DNA extraction facilitate analysis of spatial genetic patterns and gene flows. Additionally, international grain trade data is examined to trace invasion sources. Results indicate spatial genetic patterns impacted by multiple introductions over time. We infer the modern grain trade between the United States and China as the primary invasion pathway. Also, cities act as transportation hubs and ports of grain importation might disperse common ragweed to urban areas. Invasive species control should account for cities as potential landing and spread hubs of common ragweed.

Computational biogeographic distribution of the fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda J.E. Smith) moth in eastern Africa

The fall armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda J.E. Smith, has caused massive maize losses since its attack on the African continent in 2016, particularly in east Africa. In this study, we predicted the spatial distribution (established habitat) of FAW in five east African countries viz., Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Uganda, and Ethiopia. We used FAW occurrence observations for three years i.e., 2018, 2019, and 2020, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, and bioclimatic, land surface temperature (LST), solar radiation, wind speed, elevation, and landscape structure data (i.e., land use and land cover and maize harvested area) as explanatory variables. The explanatory variables were used as inputs into a variable selection experiment to select the least correlated ones that were then used to predict FAW establishment, i.e., suitability areas (very low suitability - very high suitability). The shared socio-economic pathways, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for the years 2030 and 2050 were used to predict the effect of future climate scenarios on FAW establishment. The results demonstrated that FAW establishment areas in eastern Africa were based on the model strength and true performance (area under the curve: AUC = 0.87), but not randomly. Moreover, ∼27% of eastern Africa is currently at risk of FAW establishment. Predicted FAW risk areas are expected to increase to ∼29% (using each of the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios) in the year 2030, and to ∼38% (using SSP2-4.5) and ∼35% (using SSP5-8.5) in the year 2050 climate scenarios. The LULC, particularly croplands and maize harvested area, together with temperature and precipitation bioclimatic variables provided the highest permutation importance in determining the occurrence and establishment of the pest in eastern Africa. Specifically, the study revealed that FAW was sensitive to isothermality (Bio3) rather than being sensitive to a single temperature value in the year. FAW preference ranges of temperature, precipitation, elevation, and maize harvested area were observed, implying the establishment of a once exotic pest in critical maize production regions in eastern Africa. It is recommended that future studies should thus embed the present study's modeling results into a dynamic platform that provides near-real-time predictions of FAW spatial occurrence and risk at the farm scale.

CO1 barcodes resolve an asymmetric biphyletic clade for Diabrotica undecimpunctata subspecies and provide nucleotide variants for differentiation from related lineages using real-time PCR

Diabrotica undecimpunctata is a multivoltine polyphagous beetle species that has long been documented as a significant agricultural pest throughout its native range in North America. This beetle can vector bacterial and viral plant pathogens that result in major losses to crops such as cucumber and soybean. Many countries outside the Americas treat D. undecimpunctata as a species of quarantine importance, while in the USA only the subspecies D. u. duodecimnotata is subject to quarantine, to prevent introduction from Mexico. Identification of D. undecimpunctata on the basis of morphology alone can be complicated given the use of conflicting characters in the description of some subspecific taxa. To better understand relationships among D. undecimpunctata subspecies and other related species, we sequenced mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase 1 (CO1) and nuclear internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2) DNA from individuals in different subspecific taxa and across different parts of the species range using museum samples and interceptions. When our data were combined with publicly available Diabrotica data, no pattern of divergence consistent with the currently recognized subspecific designations was found. In addition, we compared phylogenetic patterns in CO1 data from the congener D. virgifera to demonstrate the utility of mitochondrial data in resolving subspecies. From the CO1 data, a diagnostic real-time PCR assay was developed that could successfully identify all haplotypes within the large D. undecimpunctata clade for use in surveys and identification at ports of entry. These findings underscore the need to resolve molecular and morphological datasets into cogent, lineage-based groupings. Such efforts will provide an evolutionary context for the study of agriculturally important attributes of Diabrotica such as host preferences, xenobiotic metabolism, and natural and anthropogenic patterns of dispersal.

Current and future potential distribution of the invasive scale Ceroplastes rusci (L., 1758) (Hemiptera: Coccidae) under climate niche

BACKGROUND

The fig wax scale, Ceroplastes rusci is an invasive pest that feeds on more than 94 genera from 52 families that is spread across 60 countries, causing negative impacts to agriculture and forestry. Understanding the potential distribution of invasive species under climate change is crucial for the management and monitoring purposes. Thus, we predicted the potential distribution areas of C. rusci using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) based on the occurrence data and environmental variables under current and future climatic scenarios.

RESULTS

Our results showed that the temperature annual range (Bio 7) and mean temperature of the warmest quarter (Bio 10) attributed to a higher contribution to the current model of the distribution of C. rusci. The potential distribution maps illustrated the main concentrated areas of C. rusci which included South America, Africa, Asia, and Oceania. In addition, potential range expansions or reductions were predicted under different future climate change scenarios, which showed that the total suitable areas of the fig wax scale presented an increasing trend until 2100.

CONCLUSION

Our study provides significant data to understand the potential distribution of C. rusci around the world. It also serves as an early warning for the highly suitable habitat areas that even offers a platform to the currently non-infested regions or countries who are yet to develop monitoring strategies in response to the possible C. rusci outbreak. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

Biogeography of cereal stemborers and their natural enemies: forecasting pest management efficacy under changing climate

BACKGROUND

Climate warming presents physiological challenges to insects, manifesting as loss of key life-history fitness traits and survival. For interacting host-parasitoid species, physiological responses to heat stress may vary, thereby potentially uncoupling trophic ecological relationships. Here, we assessed heat tolerance traits and sensitivity to prevailing and future maximum temperatures for the cereal stemborer pests, Chilo partellus, Busseola fusca and Sesamia calamistis and their endo-parasitoids, Cotesia sesamiae and Cotesia flavipes. We further used the machine learning algorithm, Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), to model current and potential distribution of these species.

RESULTS

The mean critical thermal maxima (CT_max ) ranged from 39.5 ± 0.9°C to 44.6 ± 0.6°C and from 46.8 ± 0.7°C to 48.5 ± 0.9°C for parasitoids and stemborers, with C. sesamiae and Ch. partellus exhibiting the lowest and highest CT_max respectively. From the current climate to the 2050s scenario, parasitoids recorded a significant reduction in warming tolerance compared with their hosts. Habitat suitability for all stemborer-parasitoid species was spatially heterogeneous under current and future climatic scenarios. Cotesia sesamiae C. flavipes and B. fusca exhibited significant habitat loss, whereas Ch. partellus and S. calamistis showed a significant habitat gain under future 2050s predictions. Model metrics based on mean area under the curve ranged from 0.72 to 0.84 for all species, indicating a good predictive performance of the models.

CONCLUSION

These results suggest C. sesamiae and C. flavipes may face survival constraints or extirpation compared with their pest hosts when environmental temperature reaches their upper thermal limits earlier, likely reducing pest regulation through density-mediated effects. The results demonstrate potential destabilization of stemborer-parasitoid trophic systems potentially compromising biocontrol efficacy under climate warming. © 2022 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Population-Specific Plant-To-Plant Signaling in Wild Lima Bean

The exposure to volatiles from damaged plants can increase the resistance of the neighboring plants to herbivores. Studies have demonstrated that the strength of this response depends on the level of relatedness between the interacting plants. Indeed, a field study with Phaseolus lunatus found that the responses to induced volatiles were population-specific; individuals exposed to damaged conspecifics from the 'local' population exhibited greater resistance to herbivores than those exposed to damaged conspecifics from 'foreign' populations. Here, we repeated this study in the laboratory by placing undamaged plants near damaged plants from either their local or a foreign population. The former plants experienced less herbivory than the latter after a subsequent challenge by a generalist herbivore. To understand the role of the volatiles underlying this observed specificity, we explored the variability in the constitutively released volatiles and volatiles released after mechanical or herbivore damage among the three tested populations of P. lunatus. The total volatile emissions were 5× and 10× higher from the mechanically and herbivore-damaged plants, respectively, compared to the undamaged plants. The populations differed in their relative ratios of dominant constitutive compounds, but no pattern was observed that could explain the differential responses to induced volatiles among the populations. Overall, this study confirms the population-specific volatile-mediated interactions in P. lunatus.

Prevention is better than cure: Integrating habitat suitability and invasion threat to assess global biological invasion risk by insect pests under climate change

BACKGROUND

Invasive alien species cause substantial impacts on ecosystem, economy, and public health. Therefore, identifying areas at risk of invasion and establishment is essential for the development and implementation of preventive measures. In this study, we integrated information on species habitat suitability, location of airports and ports, and invasion threat maps to assess global invasion risk under climate change using the cucurbit beetle, Diabrotica speciosa (Germar, 1824), as a model organism.

RESULTS

Suitable and optimal habitats for D. speciosa were estimated in several regions beyond its native range and comprised all continents. A decrease in the extent of suitable and optimal habitats for D. speciosa was predicted in different climate change scenarios, resulting in a reduction in invasion risk in most regions. However, regions such as western Europe and isolated areas in southern Asia and Oceania were predicted to face an increase in invasion risk under climate change. Invasion pathways via airports and ports were identified in all continents.

CONCLUSION

Our findings can be used in the development of phytosanitary measures against D. speciosa in high-risk areas. Furthermore, the approach used in this study provides a framework for estimating the global risk of invasion by insect pests and other terrestrial organisms in different climate change scenarios. This information can be used by policy makers to develop preventive measures against species with potential to invade and spread in regions beyond their native range. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.

Climate Change Modulates Multitrophic Interactions Between Maize, A Root Herbivore, and Its Enemies

How climate change will modify belowground tritrophic interactions is poorly understood, despite their importance for agricultural productivity. Here, we manipulated the three major abiotic factors associated with climate change (atmospheric CO₂, temperature, and soil moisture) and investigated their individual and joint effects on the interaction between maize, the banded cucumber beetle (Diabrotica balteata), and the entomopathogenic nematode (EPN) Heterorhabditis bacteriophora. Changes in individual abiotic parameters had a strong influence on plant biomass, leaf wilting, sugar concentrations, protein levels, and benzoxazinoid contents. Yet, when combined to simulate a predicted climate scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, RCP 8.5), their effects mostly counter-balanced each other. Only the sharp negative impact of drought on leaf wilting was not fully compensated. In both current and predicted scenarios, root damage resulted in increased leaf wilting, reduced root biomass, and reconfigured the plant sugar metabolism. Single climatic variables modulated the herbivore performance and survival in an additive manner, although slight interactions were also observed. Increased temperature and CO₂ levels both enhanced the performance of the insect, but elevated temperature also decreased its survival. Elevated temperatures and CO₂ further directly impeded the EPN infectivity potential, while lower moisture levels improved it through plant- and/or herbivore-mediated changes. In the RCP 8.5 scenario, temperature and CO₂ showed interactive effects on EPN infectivity, which was overall decreased by 40%. We conclude that root pest problems may worsen with climate change due to increased herbivore performance and reduced top-down control by biological control agents.

Potential Distributions of the Invasive Barnacle Scale Ceroplastes cirripediformis (Hemiptera: Coccidae) Under Climate Change and Implications for Its Management

Ceroplastes cirripediformis Comstock is one of the most destructive invasive pests that have caused various negative impacts to agricultural, ornamental, and greenhouse plants. Since it is time- and labor-consuming to control C. cirripediformis, habitat evaluation of this pest may be the most cost-effective method for predicting its dispersal and avoiding its outbreaks. Here, we evaluated the effects of climatic variables on distribution patterns of C. cirripediformis and produced a global risk map for its outbreak under current and future climate scenarios using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. Our results showed that mean temperature of driest quarter (Bio 9), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio 19), precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio 18), and mean temperature of wettest quarter (Bio 8) were the main factors influencing the current modeled distribution of C. cirripediformis, respectively, contributing 41.9, 29.4, 18.8, and 7.9%. The models predicted that, globally, potential distribution of C. cirripediformis would be across most zoogeographical regions under both current and future climate scenarios. Moreover, in the future, both the total potential distribution region and its area of highly suitable habitat are expected to expand slightly in all representative concentration pathway scenarios. The information generated from this study will contribute to better identify the impacts of climate change upon C. cirripediformis's potential distribution while also providing a scientific basis for forecasting insect pest spread and outbreaks. Furthermore, this study serves an early warning for the regions of potential distribution, predicted as highly suitable habitats for this pest, which could promote its prevention and control.

EFSA Panel on Plant Health (PLH), Bragard C, Dehnen‐Schmutz K, Di Serio F, Gonthier P, Jacques M, Jaques Miret JA, Justesen AF, MacLeod A, Magnusson CS, Milonas P, Navas‐Cortes JA, Parnell S, Potting R, Reignault PL, Thulke H, Van der Werf W, Civera AV, Yuen J, Zappalà L, Kertész V, Maiorano A, Streissl F, MacLeod A. Pest categorisation of Diabrotica undecimpunctata howardi

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Diabrotica undecimpunctata howardi (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) for the EU. This subspecies occurs in North and Central America. Adults oviposit on annual plants in the families Asteraceae, Chenopodiaceae, Cucurbitaceae, Fabaceae, Poaceae, Polygonaceae and Solanaceae. Adults feed on tender plant parts in hosts in 40 additional botanical families. Preimaginal development takes place on the roots of the host plant, where larvae feed and pupate. D. undecimpunctata howardi is a multivoltine species. Overwintering adults, which may enter a facultative diapause, abandon crops in autumn and reinvade them in spring. D. undecimpunctata howardi is not known to occur in the EU and is regulated in Annex IIA of Commission Implementing Regulation 2019/2072. This species is a competent vector of Erwinia tracheiphila (Smith) Bergey et al., which can cause bacterial wilt, a serious disease of cucurbits. The bacterium, which is restricted to temperate midwestern and eastern North America, is not regulated in the EU. Within Commission Implementing Regulation 2019/2072, potential entry pathways for D. undecimpunctata howardi, such as Asteraceae, Poaceae and Solanaceae plants for planting with foliage and soil/growing medium, and soil/growing media by themselves can be considered as closed. However, plants for planting of the families Chenopodiaceae, Cucurbitaceae, Fabaceae and Polygonaceae are not specifically regulated. Should D. undecimpunctata howardi arrive in the EU, climatic conditions and availability of susceptible hosts provide conditions suitable for establishment and further spread. Economic impact is anticipated in maize and outdoor cucurbit production. D. undecimpunctata howardi satisfies the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for this species to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest. This species does not meet the criteria of being present in the EU, nor plants for planting being the main pathway for spread, for it to be regarded as a potential regulated non-quarantine pest.

Model approaches to estimate spatial distribution of bee species richness and soybean production in the Brazilian Cerrado during 2000 to 2015

Agricultural expansion as a main human activity has affected pollinator's habitat, causing spatial distribution changes. Meanwhile, pollinators still provide pollination service to improve crop production. However, their spatial response is unclear because of environmental changes. This study sought to estimate spatial distribution of crop production and pollinator's richness, which can provide insights as to how they interact with the environment. We acquired environmental variables from remote sensing images and used a stacked species distribution model to predict selected bee species richness and a crop simulation model to simulate and calculate soybean production at a regional scale in the Cerrado for the period 2000-2015. Then, we analyzed their potential relationship. The results showed that higher selected bee species richness and higher soybean production occurred in the southern Cerrado. From 2000/08 to 2008/15 period, the selected bee species richness significantly decreased in the western part of the state of Bahia, the state of Goiás, and the northern region of the state of Minas Gerais; while soybean production increased in the states of Mato Grosso, Goiás, Bahia, and Tocantins. Correlation results of selected bee species richness and soybean production showed that they do not follow a linear relationship during the study period. Our findings indicate that the modeling method we proposed is robust to estimate spatial distribution of bee species richness and soybean production in the Cerrado at the regional scale and that the environment has a stronger influence on selected bee species richness than on soybean production. Moreover, climate effects and agricultural expansion are the main factors that affect their spatial distribution and interaction. Finally, our methodology provides a novel spatial perspective to analyze the relationship between pollinator and agricultural expansion corresponding with the environment, but future work is needed to collect a more comprehensive data set to improve model results.

Predicting the Potential Global Geographical Distribution of Two Icerya Species under Climate Change

Climate change is predicted to alter the geographic distribution of a wide variety of taxa, including insects. Icerya aegyptiaca (Douglas) and I. purchasi Maskell are two polyphagous and invasive pests in the genus Icerya Signoret (Hemiptera: Monophlebidae) and cause serious damage to many landscape and economic trees. However, the global habitats suitable for these two Icerya species are unclear. The purpose of this study is to determine the potentially suitable habitats of these two species, then to provide scientific management strategies. Using MaxEnt software, the potential risk maps of I. aegyptiaca and I. purchasi were created based on their occurrence data under different climatic conditions and topology factors. The results suggested that under current climate conditions, the potentially habitable area of I. aegyptiaca would be much larger than the current distribution and there would be small changes for I. purchasi. In the future climate change scenarios, the suitable habitats of these two insect species will display an increasing trend. Africa, South America and Asia would be more suitable for I. aegyptiaca. South America, Asia and Europe would be more suitable for I. purchasi. Moreover, most of the highly habitat suitability areas of I. aegyptiaca will become concentrated in Southern Asia. The results also suggested that “min temperature of coldest month” was the most important environmental factor affecting the prediction models of these two insects. This research provides a theoretical reference framework for developing policies to manage and control these two invasive pests of the genus Icerya.

Potential distribution of two invasive pineapple pests under climate change

BACKGROUND

The number of global invasive species has significantly increased during the past two centuries due to globalization. The understanding of species invasion under climate change is crucial for sustainable biodiversity conservation, community dynamics, ecosystem function, and resource distribution. Two invasive species, Dysmicoccus brevipes (Cockerell) and D. neobrevipes (Beardsley) have greatly expanded their ranges during recent years. These insects are now considered as extremely serious pests for various plants, especially pineapple. In addition, they are the primary vectors for pineapple wilt associated virus. However, the potential distribution range and management strategies for these pests are unclear.

RESULTS

In this study, potential risk maps were developed for these pests with MaxEnt (maximum entropy) based on occurrence data under different environmental variables. The potential distributions of these pests were projected for 2050s and 2070s under three climate change scenarios as described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Results showed that both pests have similar potential distributions, with high environmental suitability in South America, Africa and South Asia. In addition, potential range expansions or reductions were predicted under different climate change scenarios. The annual mean temperature was the most important factor, accounting for 43.4% of D. brevipes distribution. The minimum temperature of coldest month and mean temperature of coldest quarter was found to be responsible for 90.3% of D. neobrevipes distribution.

CONCLUSION

This research provided a theoretical reference framework to develop policies in the management and control of these invasive pests. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry.

Modelling the potential distribution of arbovirus vector Aedes aegypti under current and future climate scenarios in Taiwan, China

BACKGROUND

Aedes aegypti is one of the most important mosquito species and is a common disease-transmitting pest in tropical areas. Various infectious arbovirus diseases can be transmitted by Ae. aegypti. With ongoing global climate change, we are facing an increasing public health threat from the rapid spread of disease vectors into wider geographical areas. To better understand the current ecological niche range and possible future expansion of Ae. aegypti, an ecological niche modelling approach was adopted to predict its current and future potential habitat in Taiwan, China.

RESULTS

Based on observed occurrence records and environmental layers reflecting climate and land-use conditions, predictions with a high resolution of 30 arcsec (approx. 1 × 1 km) were made by our model. Ae. aegypti was predicted to expand its habitat in varying degrees out of its current niche range under different climate scenarios for the future 21st century. Winter temperature and dry season precipitation were considered as important predictors among climate variables. Croplands, pasture, forested lands and urban lands were important land-use variables.

CONCLUSION

Ae. aegypti is expected to establish new habitats out of its current niche range under the trend of global climate change. The extent of habitat expansion varies under different climate scenarios. Appropriate measures should be taken to prevent its expansion to a broader scale. Our study has important strategic implications for mosquito surveillance and the prevention and control of mosquito-borne diseases. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry.

Modeling the Potential Global Distribution of Phenacoccus madeirensis Green under Various Climate Change Scenarios

The Madeira mealybug, Phenacoccus madeirensis Green, is a serious invasive pest that does significant damage to more than 120 genera of host plants from 51 families in more than 81 countries. However, the potential distribution range of this pest is unclear, which could hamper control and eradication efforts. In the current study, MaxEnt models were developed to forecast the current and future distribution of the Madeira mealybug around the world. Moreover, the future potential distribution of this invasive species was projected for the 2050s and 2070s under three different climate change scenarios (HADGEM2-AO, GFDL-CM3, and MIROC5) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP-2.6 and RCP-8.5). The final model indicates that the Madeira mealybug has a highly suitable range for the continents of Asia, Europe, and Africa, as well as South America and North America, where this species has already been recorded. Potential expansions or reductions in distribution were also simulated under different future climatic conditions. Our study also suggested that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9) was the most important factor and explained 46.9% of the distribution model. The distribution model from the current and future predictions can enhance the strategic planning of agricultural and forestry organization by identifying regions that will need to develop integrated pest management programs to manage Madeira mealybug, especially for some highly suitable areas, such as South Asia and Europe. Moreover, the results of this research will help governments to optimize investment in the control and management of the Madeira mealybug by identifying regions that are or will become suitable for infestations.

Potential distribution of an invasive pest, Euplatypus parallelus, in China as predicted by Maxent

BACKGROUND

Euplatypus parallelus is a highly polyphagous invasive pest native to Central and South America. In recent years it has invaded many countries in Africa and Asia and resulted in considerable economic loss. In China it has been reported to have invaded Taiwan, and been also recorded in Hainan Province. Until now there has been no invasion into the mainland. In order to better manage this invasive pest, here we predicted the suitable area of E. parallelus in China by the Maxent model.

RESULTS

The Maxent model predicted the potential distribution of E. parallelus with a test AUC value of 0.962 and a training AUC value of 0.978. Temperature seasonality (Bio_04), annual temperature range (Bio_07), annual precipitation (Bio_12) and mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio_11) were the strongest predictors of E. parallelus distribution with 32.1%, 19.8%, 15% and 10.4% contributions, respectively. The potential suitable area for E. parallelus was mainly distributed in the southeastern coast, the southwestern border, and Taiwan and Hainan provinces in China, and the highly suitable areas were located in the northern coast of Hainan Province and the southwestern coast of Taiwan Province. This pest prefers a stable, warm and rainy climate, which indicates that tropics and subtropics would be its ideal area.

CONCLUSION

Euplatypus parallelus has invaded Hainan and Taiwan in China. Measures should be taken to prevent it from spreading on these two islands. Moreover, strict quarantine, biological study and control measures are necessary to block its spread, invasion and damage, especially in these climate-suitable areas. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry.