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Yuan X, Ran W, Xu W, Zhao Y, Su D, Song Y. Potential Distribution of Tribe Erythroneurini in China Based on the R-Optimized MaxEnt Model, with Implications for Management. INSECTS 2025; 16:450. [PMID: 40429162 PMCID: PMC12112222 DOI: 10.3390/insects16050450] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2025] [Revised: 04/21/2025] [Accepted: 04/23/2025] [Indexed: 05/29/2025]
Abstract
This study examines the distribution dynamics of the tribe Erythroneurini, a group of economically significant leafhoppers in China that pose threats to crops through sap feeding and virus transmission, while also serving as valuable ecological indicators due to their sensitivity to environmental changes. Through a systematic evaluation of 12 species distribution models (SDMs), we ultimately selected the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model for predicting species distributions. The R-optimized MaxEnt model incorporated 11 environmental variables and 218 occurrence records to assess habitat suitability under historical, current, and future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). The model was configured with LQP features and a default regularization multiplier value of 1. Results reveal that temperature (BIO6, BIO2, BIO4) and precipitation (BIO12) are the primary drivers of habitat suitability, with tropical and subtropical regions identified as the most favorable. Future projections indicate a complex pattern of habitat contraction and expansion, with a notable northward shift toward higher latitudes under climate change. These findings highlight the profound impact of climate change on Erythroneurini distribution, underscoring the need for proactive management. Implementing long-term monitoring and targeted control in vulnerable regions mitigates ecological and agricultural risks, supporting sustainable pest management and fostering the integration of ecological conservation with agricultural development.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaojuan Yuan
- School of Karst Science, Guizhou Normal University, Guiyang 550025, China; (X.Y.); (W.R.); (W.X.); (Y.Z.)
- State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification Control, Guiyang 550025, China
| | - Weiwei Ran
- School of Karst Science, Guizhou Normal University, Guiyang 550025, China; (X.Y.); (W.R.); (W.X.); (Y.Z.)
- State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification Control, Guiyang 550025, China
| | - Wenming Xu
- School of Karst Science, Guizhou Normal University, Guiyang 550025, China; (X.Y.); (W.R.); (W.X.); (Y.Z.)
- State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification Control, Guiyang 550025, China
| | - Yuanqi Zhao
- School of Karst Science, Guizhou Normal University, Guiyang 550025, China; (X.Y.); (W.R.); (W.X.); (Y.Z.)
- State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification Control, Guiyang 550025, China
| | - Di Su
- School of Karst Science, Guizhou Normal University, Guiyang 550025, China; (X.Y.); (W.R.); (W.X.); (Y.Z.)
- State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification Control, Guiyang 550025, China
| | - Yuehua Song
- School of Karst Science, Guizhou Normal University, Guiyang 550025, China; (X.Y.); (W.R.); (W.X.); (Y.Z.)
- State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification Control, Guiyang 550025, China
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Zhang FX, Li HL, Wan JZ, Wang CJ. Identifying key monitoring areas for tree insect pest risks in China under climate change. JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC ENTOMOLOGY 2024; 117:2355-2367. [PMID: 39460732 DOI: 10.1093/jee/toae215] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2024] [Revised: 08/19/2024] [Accepted: 09/18/2024] [Indexed: 10/28/2024]
Abstract
Climate change can exacerbate pest population growth, posing significant threats to ecosystem functions and services, social development, and food security. Risk assessment is a valuable tool for effective pest management that identifies potential pest expansion and ecosystem dispersal patterns. We applied a habitat suitability model coupled with priority protection planning software to determine key monitoring areas (KMA) for tree insect pest risks under climate change and used forest ecoregions and nature reserves to assess the ecological risk of insect pest invasion. Finally, we collated the prevention and control measures for reducing future pest invasions. The KMA for tree insect pests in our current and future climate is mainly concentrated in eastern and southern China. However, with climate change, the KMA gradually expands from southeastern to northeastern China. In the current and future climate scenarios, ecoregions requiring high monitoring levels were restricted to the eastern and southern coastal areas of China, and nature reserves requiring the highest monitoring levels were mainly distributed in southeastern China. Tree insect pest invasion assessment using ecoregions and nature reserves identified that future climates increase the risk of pest invasions in forest ecoregions and nature reserves, especially in northeastern China. The increased risk and severity of tree insect pest invasions require implementing monitoring and preventative measures in these areas. We effectively assessed the pest invasion risks using forest ecoregions and nature reserves under climate change. Our assessments suggest that monitoring and early prevention should focus on southeastern and northeastern China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fei-Xue Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Mountain Surface Processes and Ecological Regulation, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, China
- The Key Laboratory of Ecological Protection in the Yellow River Basin of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, School of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China
- State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture, Qinghai University, Xining, China
| | - Hong-Li Li
- The Key Laboratory of Ecological Protection in the Yellow River Basin of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, School of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China
| | - Ji-Zhong Wan
- Key Laboratory of Mountain Surface Processes and Ecological Regulation, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, China
| | - Chun-Jing Wang
- Grupo de Biología Integrativa, Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
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Li Y, Wang Y, Zhao C, Du X, He P, Meng F. Predicting the spatial distribution of three Ephedra species under climate change using the MaxEnt model. Heliyon 2024; 10:e32696. [PMID: 39183892 PMCID: PMC11341288 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e32696] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/05/2023] [Revised: 05/23/2024] [Accepted: 06/06/2024] [Indexed: 08/27/2024] Open
Abstract
In the context of global warming, the habitats of Ephedra, including Ephedra sinica Stapf, Ephedra intermedia Schrenk ex Mey, and Ephedra equisetina Bunge, have been substantially threatened and deteriorated in recent years. Little is known about the potential geographic dynamics of economically renowned species, including those used in sand fixation and traditional Chinese medicine, under climate change. Therefore, evaluating their potential habitat and determining the crucial environmental variables affecting E. sinica, E. intermedia and E. equisetina under the driving force of global warming are extremely important. In this study, an optimized MaxEnt model in the kuenm package on the basis of occurrence records (a total of 103, 101 and 97 points for E. sinica, E. intermedia and E. equisetina, respectively) and 37 environmental factors were utilized to simulate the distribution of the three species. Two representative concentration pathways (SSP2.6 and SSP8.5) at 2041-2060 and 2061-2080, respectively, were used to establish a future distribution model of the three species. The results indicated that approximately 6.92 × 105 km2, 2.95 × 105 km2, and 11.5 × 105 km2 of suitable regions for E. sinica, E. intermedia and E. equisetina were obtained, which were mostly distributed in central and eastern Inner Mongolia, eastern and southern Gansu, and northern Xinjiang, respectively. Critical environmental variables, such as land cover and annual precipitation, were regarded as critical parameters for the three species. Future assessment revealed that over 60 % of the potential distribution area was affected, and the stability of E. sinica under the SSP8.5 scenario was the greatest. The spatial dynamic changes in suitable areas for E. intermedia were smaller than those for E. equisetina and E. sinica in the future. The comprehensive analysis revealed that the fluctuations in the distributions of the three Ephedra species under climate change are small and provide useful information for future conservation. Therefore, target conservation and management measures should be implemented in combination with the suitability thresholds of different environmental parameters. Our results provide useful recommendations for the current and future protection of Ephedra populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yunfeng Li
- Chengde Medical University, Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Research and Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengde, Hebei, 067000, China
- Beijing Normal University, Beijing Key Laboratory of Traditional Chinese Medicine Protection and Utilization, Beijing, 100875, China
| | - Yan Wang
- Chengde Medical University, Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Research and Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengde, Hebei, 067000, China
| | - Chunying Zhao
- Chengde Medical University, Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Research and Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengde, Hebei, 067000, China
| | - Xiaojuan Du
- Chengde Medical University, Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Research and Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengde, Hebei, 067000, China
| | - Ping He
- Beijing Normal University, Beijing Key Laboratory of Traditional Chinese Medicine Protection and Utilization, Beijing, 100875, China
| | - Fanyun Meng
- Beijing Normal University, Beijing Key Laboratory of Traditional Chinese Medicine Protection and Utilization, Beijing, 100875, China
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Zhao Z, Yang L, Long J, Chang Z, Chen X. Predicting suitable areas for Metcalfa pruinosa (Hemiptera: Flatidae) under climate change and implications for management. JOURNAL OF INSECT SCIENCE (ONLINE) 2024; 24:7. [PMID: 38717262 PMCID: PMC11078062 DOI: 10.1093/jisesa/ieae053] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2024] [Revised: 03/08/2024] [Accepted: 04/19/2024] [Indexed: 05/12/2024]
Abstract
Climate change is a prominent factor reshaping the distribution of invasive species. Metcalfa pruinosa (Say 1830) (Hemiptera: Flatidae), native to North America, has invaded other continents and poses a serious threat to various agricultural crops and the human residential environment. Understanding the distribution of M. pruinosa based on climatic conditions is a critical first step to prevent its further invasion. Therefore, based on its occurrence records and associated environmental variables, a Maxent model was developed to predict suitable areas for this species in the present and future on a global scale. The model exhibited outstanding performance, with a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and true skill statistic values of 0.9329 and 0.926, respectively. The model also indicated that annual precipitation (Bio12) and max temperature of the warmest month (Bio5) were the key environmental variables limiting the distribution of M. pruinosa. Moreover, the model revealed that the current suitable area is 1.01 × 107 km2 worldwide, with southern China, southern Europe, and the eastern United States predicted to be the primary and highly suitable areas in the latter 2 regions. This area is expected to increase under future climate scenarios, mainly in the northern direction. The study's findings contribute to our understanding of climate change's impact on M. pruinosa distribution, and they will aid governments in developing appropriate pest management strategies, including global monitoring and strict quarantine measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhengxue Zhao
- Institute of Entomology, College of Agriculture, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, PR China
- Provincial Special Key Laboratory for Development and Utilization of Insect Resources of Guizhou, College of Agriculture, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, PR China
- Guizhou Key Laboratory for Agricultural Pest Management of Mountainous Region, College of Agriculture, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, PR China
- Key Laboratory of High-efficiency Agricultural Plant Protection Informatization in Central Guizhou, College of Agriculture, Anshun University, Anshun 561000, PR China
| | - Lin Yang
- Institute of Entomology, College of Agriculture, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, PR China
- Provincial Special Key Laboratory for Development and Utilization of Insect Resources of Guizhou, College of Agriculture, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, PR China
- Guizhou Key Laboratory for Agricultural Pest Management of Mountainous Region, College of Agriculture, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, PR China
| | - Jiankun Long
- Institute of Entomology, College of Agriculture, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, PR China
- Provincial Special Key Laboratory for Development and Utilization of Insect Resources of Guizhou, College of Agriculture, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, PR China
- Guizhou Key Laboratory for Agricultural Pest Management of Mountainous Region, College of Agriculture, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, PR China
| | - Zhimin Chang
- Institute of Entomology, College of Agriculture, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, PR China
- Provincial Special Key Laboratory for Development and Utilization of Insect Resources of Guizhou, College of Agriculture, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, PR China
- Guizhou Key Laboratory for Agricultural Pest Management of Mountainous Region, College of Agriculture, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, PR China
| | - Xiangsheng Chen
- Institute of Entomology, College of Agriculture, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, PR China
- Provincial Special Key Laboratory for Development and Utilization of Insect Resources of Guizhou, College of Agriculture, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, PR China
- Guizhou Key Laboratory for Agricultural Pest Management of Mountainous Region, College of Agriculture, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, PR China
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Jin Z, Zhao H, Xian X, Li M, Qi Y, Guo J, Yang N, Lü Z, Liu W. Early warning and management of invasive crop pests under global warming: estimating the global geographical distribution patterns and ecological niche overlap of three Diabrotica beetles. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2024; 31:13575-13590. [PMID: 38253826 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-024-32076-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2023] [Accepted: 01/15/2024] [Indexed: 01/24/2024]
Abstract
Invasive alien pests (IAPs) pose a major threat to global agriculture and food production. When multiple IAPs coexist in the same habitat and use the same resources, the economic loss to local agricultural production increases. Many species of the Diabrotica genus, such as Diabrotica barberi, Diabrotica undecimpunctata, and Diabrotica virgifera, originating from the USA and Mexico, seriously damaged maize production in North America and Europe. However, the potential geographic distributions (PGDs) and degree of ecological niche overlap among the three Diabrotica beetles remain unclear; thus, the potential coexistence zone is unknown. Based on environmental and species occurrence data, we used an ensemble model (EM) to predict the PGDs and overlapping PGD of the three Diabrotica beetles. The n-dimensional hypervolumes concept was used to explore the degree of niche overlap among the three species. The EM showed better reliability than the individual models. According to the EM results, the PGDs and overlapping PGD of the three Diabrotica beetles were mainly distributed in North America, Europe, and Asia. Under the current scenario, D. virgifera has the largest PGD ranges (1615 × 104 km2). In the future, the PGD of this species will expand further and reach a maximum under the SSP5-8.5 scenario in the 2050s (2499 × 104 km2). Diabrotica virgifera showed the highest potential for invasion under the current and future global warming scenarios. Among the three studied species, the degree of ecological niche overlap was the highest for D. undecimpunctata and D. virgifera, with the highest similarity in the PGD patterns and maximum coexistence range. Under global warming, the PGDs of the three Diabrotica beetles are expected to expand to high latitudes. Identifying the PGDs of the three Diabrotica beetles provides an important reference for quarantine authorities in countries at risk of invasion worldwide to develop specific preventive measures against pests.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhenan Jin
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing, 100193, China
| | - Haoxiang Zhao
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing, 100193, China
| | - Xiaoqing Xian
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing, 100193, China
| | - Ming Li
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing, 100193, China
| | - Yuhan Qi
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing, 100193, China
| | - Jianyang Guo
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing, 100193, China
| | - Nianwan Yang
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing, 100193, China
- Institute of Western Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Changji, 831100, China
| | - Zhichuang Lü
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing, 100193, China
| | - Wanxue Liu
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing, 100193, China.
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Fu C, Wang X, Huang T, Wang R. Future habitat changes of Bactrocera minax Enderlein along the Yangtze River Basin using the optimal MaxEnt model. PeerJ 2023; 11:e16459. [PMID: 38025688 PMCID: PMC10668831 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.16459] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2023] [Accepted: 10/23/2023] [Indexed: 12/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Bactrocera minax (Enderlein, 1920) (Diptera: Tephritidae) is a destructive citrus pest. It is mainly distributed throughout Shaanxi, Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Yunnan, Hubei, Hunan, and Guangxi in China and is considered to be a second-class pest that is prohibited from entering that country. Climate change, new farming techniques, and increased international trade has caused the habitable area of this pest to gradually expand. Understanding the suitable habitats of B. minax under future climate scenarios may be crucial to reveal the expansion pattern of the insect and develop corresponding prevention strategies in China. Methods Using on the current 199 distribution points and 11 environmental variables for B. minax, we chose the optimal MaxEnt model to screen the dominant factors that affect the distribution of B. minax and to predict the potential future distribution of B. minax in China under two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5). Results The current habitat of B. minax is located at 24.1-34.6°N and 101.1-122.9°E, which encompasses the provinces of Guizhou, Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, and Yunnan (21.64 × 104 km2). Under future climate scenarios, the potential suitable habitat for B. minax may expand significantly toward the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River. The land coverage of highly suitable habitats may increase from 21.64 × 104 km2 to 26.35 × 104 × 104 km2 (2050s, SSP5-8.5) ~ 33.51 × 104 km2 (2090s, SSP5-8.5). This expansion area accounts for 29% (2050s, SSP1-2.6) to 34.83% (2090s, SSP1-2.6) of the current habitat. The center of the suitable habitat was predicted to expand towards the northeast, and the scenario with a stronger radiative force corresponded to a more marked movement of the center toward higher latitudes. A jackknife test showed that the dominant variables affecting the distribution of B. minax were the mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9), the annual precipitation (bio12), the mean diurnal range (bio2), the temperature annual range (bio7), and the altitude (alt). Discussion Currently, it is possible for B. minax to expand its damaging presence. Regions with appropriate climate conditions and distribution of host plants may become potential habitats for the insects, and local authorities should strengthen their detection and prevention strategies. Climate changes in the future may promote the survival and expansion of B. minax species in China, which is represented by the significant increase of suitable habitats toward regions of high altitudes and latitudes across all directions but with some shrinkage in the east and west sides.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chun Fu
- Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province for Bamboo Pests Control and Resource Development, Leshan Normal University, Leshan, China
| | - Xian Wang
- Hejiang Bureau of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Hejiang, China
| | - Tingting Huang
- Chengdu Agricultural Technology Extension Station, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
| | - Rulin Wang
- Sichuan Provincial Rural Economic Information Center, Chengdu, China
- Water-Saving Agriculture in Southern Hill Area Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
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The Sequence Characteristics and Binding Properties of the Odorant-Binding Protein 2 of Euplatypus parallelus to Semiochemicals. Int J Mol Sci 2023; 24:ijms24021714. [PMID: 36675226 PMCID: PMC9863716 DOI: 10.3390/ijms24021714] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2022] [Revised: 01/05/2023] [Accepted: 01/13/2023] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Euplatypus parallelus is one of the dominant rubber bark beetle species in Hainan's rubber-planting area. Semiochemicals, including the volatiles found in rubber trees and aggregation pheromones, play an important role in the search for suitable host plants. To examine the possible functional role of highly expressed odorant-binding protein 2 of Euplatypus parallelus (EparOBP2) in the semiochemical recognition process, we cloned and analyzed the cDNA sequence of EparOBP2. The results showed that EparOBP2 contains an open reading frame (ORF) of 393 bp that encodes 130 amino acids, including a 21-amino-acid residue signal peptide at the N-terminus. The matured EparOBP2 protein consists of seven α-helices, creating an open binding pocket and three disulfide bridges. The results of the fluorescence binding assay showed that EparOBP2 had high binding ability with α-pinene and myrcene. The docking results confirmed that the interactions of α-pinene and myrcene with EparOBP2 were primarily achieved through hydrophobic interactions. This study provides evidence that EparOBP2 may be involved in the chemoreception of semiochemicals and that it can successfully contribute to the integrated management of E. parallelus.
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Di Sora N, Mannu R, Rossini L, Contarini M, Gallego D, Speranza S. Using Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to Estimate the Suitability of European Mediterranean Non-Native Area for the Establishment of Toumeyella Parvicornis (Hemiptera: Coccidae). INSECTS 2023; 14:46. [PMID: 36661974 PMCID: PMC9862868 DOI: 10.3390/insects14010046] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2022] [Revised: 12/23/2022] [Accepted: 12/30/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
The pine tortoise scale, Toumeyella parvicornis, is an insect native to the Nearctic region that is able to infest several Pinus species. It can cause weakening, defoliation and, at high infestation levels, tree death. After its first report in Italy in 2015, the pest spread rapidly over the surrounding areas and was reported in France in 2021. Due to the threat that this pest poses to pine trees, the suitability of European Mediterranean basin areas for T. parvicornis at different spatial scales was estimated by constructing species distribution models (SDMs) using bioclimatic variables. Our results showed that several coastal areas of the Mediterranean basin area could be suitable for T. parvicornis. Based on performance assessment, all the SDMs tested provided a good representation of the suitability of European Mediterranean non-native area for T. parvicornis at different spatial scales. In particular, most of the areas with a medium or high level of suitability corresponded to the geographical range of distribution of different Pinus spp. in Europe. Predicting the suitability of European Mediterranean areas for T. parvicornis provides a fundamental tool for early detection and management of the spread of this pest in Europe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicolò Di Sora
- Dipartimento di Scienze Agrarie e Forestali, Università degli Studi della Tuscia, Via San Camillo de Lellis snc, 01100 Viterbo, Italy
| | - Roberto Mannu
- Dipartimento di Agraria, Università degli Studi di Sassari, Viale Italia 39A, 07100 Sassari, Italy
| | - Luca Rossini
- Dipartimento di Scienze Agrarie e Forestali, Università degli Studi della Tuscia, Via San Camillo de Lellis snc, 01100 Viterbo, Italy
- Service d’Automatique et d’Analyse des Systèmes, Université Libre de Bruxelles, v. F.D. Roosvelt 50, CP 165/55, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
| | - Mario Contarini
- Dipartimento di Scienze Agrarie e Forestali, Università degli Studi della Tuscia, Via San Camillo de Lellis snc, 01100 Viterbo, Italy
| | - Diego Gallego
- Department of Ecology, University of Alicante, Carretera San Vicente del Raspeig s/n, 03690 San Vicente del Raspeig, Alicante, Spain
| | - Stefano Speranza
- Dipartimento di Scienze Agrarie e Forestali, Università degli Studi della Tuscia, Via San Camillo de Lellis snc, 01100 Viterbo, Italy
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Zheng T, Sun JQ, Shi XJ, Liu DL, Sun BY, Deng Y, Zhang DL, Liu SM. Evaluation of climate factors affecting the quality of red huajiao (Zanthoxylum bungeanum maxim.) based on UPLC-MS/MS and MaxEnt model. Food Chem X 2022; 16:100522. [DOI: 10.1016/j.fochx.2022.100522] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2022] [Revised: 11/12/2022] [Accepted: 11/22/2022] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
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Ouyang X, Pan J, Wu Z, Chen A. Predicting the potential distribution of Campsis grandiflora in China under climate change. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:63629-63639. [PMID: 35461417 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-20256-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2021] [Accepted: 04/10/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Because the research on the geographical distribution of species significantly influences people's understanding of species protection and utilization, it is important to study the influence of climate change on plants' geographical distribution patterns. Based on 166 distribution records and 11 climate and terrain variables, we used MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model and ArcGIS software to predict the potential distribution of Campsis grandiflora under climate change and then determined the dominant climate variables that significantly affected its geographical distribution. In our study, the area under the curve (AUC) value of the training data was 0.939, proving the accuracy of our prediction. Under current climate conditions, the area of potentially suitable habitat is 238.29 × 104 km2, mainly distributed in northern, central, southern, and eastern China. The dominant variables that affect the geographical distribution of C. grandiflora are temperature, precipitation and altitude. In the future climate change scenario, the total area of suitable habitat and highly suitable habitat will increase, whereas the area of moderately suitable habitat and poorly suitable habitat will decrease. In addition, the centroid of the potentially suitable area of C. grandiflora will migrate to higher latitude and higher altitudes areas. The results could give strategic guidance for development, protection, and utilization of C. grandiflora in China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xianheng Ouyang
- School of Forestry and Biotechnology, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, 311300, China
| | - Jiangling Pan
- Zhejiang Forestry Fund Management Center, Hangzhou, 310020, China
| | - Zhitao Wu
- HDU-ITMO Joint Institute, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou, 310018, China
| | - Anliang Chen
- School of Forestry and Biotechnology, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, 311300, China.
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Zhang Y, Dang Y, Wang X. Risk Assessment of the Worldwide Expansion and Outbreak of Massicus raddei (Blessig) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) Based on Host Plant and Climatic Factors. INSECTS 2022; 13:730. [PMID: 36005355 PMCID: PMC9409856 DOI: 10.3390/insects13080730] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/10/2022] [Revised: 08/06/2022] [Accepted: 08/12/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Massicus raddei (Blessig) is a serious trunk borer of oak species, currently widespread only in eastern Asia. A better understanding of the invasive potential of this borer across other distribution-free areas is further needed to prevent its invasion and outbreaks. In this study, we mapped the current distribution of M. raddei, two susceptible hosts (Quercus mongolia and Q. liaotungensis) and all 11 host species of this borer, and then modeled their potential distributions. We comprehensively compared the current distributions and potential invasion ranges among M. raddei, susceptible hosts and all hosts to select areas at risk for the establishment of this borer. MaxEnt model predictions revealed that (1) the central and eastern US, a small area of central and western Europe, western Georgia, and central Argentina had suitable climates for M. raddei. Such highly suitable areas for this borer overlapped considerably with the current plantation and potential distributions of its hosts. Consequently, susceptible hosts and climate suitability together create the highest risk for M. raddei establishment and outbreaks, throughout central and eastern America, a small area of central Europe, western Norway and western Georgia, and (2) the broad host suitability across six continents creates a situation favorable for the colonization of this borer, further extending the spatial scale of possible infestation by M. raddei worldwide.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yufan Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Forest Protection of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
- Yunfu Forestry Bureau, Yunfu 527300, China
| | - Yingqiao Dang
- Key Laboratory of Forest Protection of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
| | - Xiaoyi Wang
- Key Laboratory of Forest Protection of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
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12
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Prediction of the potential distribution of the predatory mite Neoseiulus californicus (McGregor) in China under current and future climate scenarios. Sci Rep 2022; 12:11807. [PMID: 35821252 PMCID: PMC9276784 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-15308-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2022] [Accepted: 06/22/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Neoseiulus californicus is a predatory mite with a wide global distribution that can effectively control a variety of pest mites. In this study, MaxEnt was used to analyse the potential distribution of N. californicus in China and the BCC-CSM2-MR model was used to predict changes in the suitable areas for the mite from 2021 to 2100 under the scenarios of SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585. The results showed that (1) the average of area under curve value of the model was over 0.95, which demonstrated an excellent model accuracy. (2) Annual mean temperature (Bio1), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio19), and precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17) were the main climatic variables that affected and controlled the potential distribution of N. californicus, with suitable ranges of 6.97–23.27 °C, 71.36–3924.8 mm, and 41.94–585.08 mm, respectively. (3) The suitable areas for N. californicus were mainly distributed in the southern half of China, with a total suitable area of 226.22 × 104 km2 in current. Under the future climate scenario, compared with the current scenario, lowly and moderately suitable areas of N. californicus increased, while highly suitable areas decreased. Therefore, it may be necessary to cultivate high-temperature resistant strains of N. californicus to adapt to future environmental changes.
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13
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Sawada K, Aihara T, Kamijo T. Current and future predicted distributions of invasive toads (Anura: Bufonidae) and bullfrogs (Anura: Ranidae) on Sado Island. JOURNAL OF ASIA-PACIFIC BIODIVERSITY 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.japb.2022.03.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
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14
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Yin Y, He Q, Pan X, Liu Q, Wu Y, Li X. Predicting Current Potential Distribution and the Range Dynamics of Pomacea canaliculata in China under Global Climate Change. BIOLOGY 2022; 11:biology11010110. [PMID: 35053108 PMCID: PMC8772860 DOI: 10.3390/biology11010110] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2021] [Revised: 01/06/2022] [Accepted: 01/06/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
Simple Summary Pomacea canaliculata is one of the 100 worst invasive alien species in the world, causing significant effects and harm to native species, ecological environment, human health, and social economy. In this study, we used species distribution modeling (SDM) methods to predict the potential distribution of P. canaliculata in China and found that with climate change, there would be a trend of expanding and moving northward in the future. Abstract Pomacea canaliculata is one of the 100 worst invasive alien species in the world, which has significant effects and harm to native species, ecological environment, human health, and social economy. Climate change is one of the major causes of species range shifts. With recent climate change, the distribution of P. canaliculata has shifted northward. Understanding the potential distribution under current and future climate conditions will aid in the management of the risk of its invasion and spread. Here, we used species distribution modeling (SDM) methods to predict the potential distribution of P. canaliculata in China, and the jackknife test was used to assess the importance of environmental variables for modeling. Our study found that precipitation of the warmest quarter and maximum temperature in the coldest months played important roles in the distribution of P. canaliculata. With global warming, there will be a trend of expansion and northward movement in the future. This study could provide recommendations for the management and prevention of snail invasion and expansion.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yingxuan Yin
- Department of Parasitology, Zhongshan School of Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; (Y.Y.); (Q.H.); (X.P.)
- Key Laboratory for Tropical Diseases Control, Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
- Provincial Engineering Technology Research Center for Biological Vector Control, Guangzhou 510080, China
- China Atomic Energy Authority Center of Excellence on Nuclear Technology Applications for Insect Control, Beijing 100048, China
| | - Qing He
- Department of Parasitology, Zhongshan School of Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; (Y.Y.); (Q.H.); (X.P.)
- Key Laboratory for Tropical Diseases Control, Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
- Provincial Engineering Technology Research Center for Biological Vector Control, Guangzhou 510080, China
- China Atomic Energy Authority Center of Excellence on Nuclear Technology Applications for Insect Control, Beijing 100048, China
| | - Xiaowen Pan
- Department of Parasitology, Zhongshan School of Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; (Y.Y.); (Q.H.); (X.P.)
- Key Laboratory for Tropical Diseases Control, Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
- Provincial Engineering Technology Research Center for Biological Vector Control, Guangzhou 510080, China
- China Atomic Energy Authority Center of Excellence on Nuclear Technology Applications for Insect Control, Beijing 100048, China
| | - Qiyong Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China;
| | - Yinjuan Wu
- Department of Parasitology, Zhongshan School of Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; (Y.Y.); (Q.H.); (X.P.)
- Key Laboratory for Tropical Diseases Control, Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
- Provincial Engineering Technology Research Center for Biological Vector Control, Guangzhou 510080, China
- China Atomic Energy Authority Center of Excellence on Nuclear Technology Applications for Insect Control, Beijing 100048, China
- Correspondence: (Y.W.); (X.L.)
| | - Xuerong Li
- Department of Parasitology, Zhongshan School of Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; (Y.Y.); (Q.H.); (X.P.)
- Key Laboratory for Tropical Diseases Control, Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
- Provincial Engineering Technology Research Center for Biological Vector Control, Guangzhou 510080, China
- China Atomic Energy Authority Center of Excellence on Nuclear Technology Applications for Insect Control, Beijing 100048, China
- Correspondence: (Y.W.); (X.L.)
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15
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Current and potential geographic distribution of red palm mite (Raoiella indica Hirst) in Brazil. ECOL INFORM 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2021.101396] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
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16
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Wang CJ, Wang R, Yu CM, Dang XP, Sun WG, Li QF, Wang XT, Wan JZ. Risk assessment of insect pest expansion in alpine ecosystems under climate change. PEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 2021; 77:3165-3178. [PMID: 33656253 DOI: 10.1002/ps.6354] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/16/2020] [Revised: 02/26/2021] [Accepted: 03/03/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Growth in insect pest populations poses a significant threat to ecosystem functions and services, societal development, and food security in alpine regions under climate change. Risk assessments are important prioritization tools for pest management, which must be used to study insect pest expansion in alpine ecosystems under global warming. We used species distribution modeling to simulate the current and future distribution probabilities of 58 insect pest species in the Qinghai Province, China, based on a comprehensive field investigation. Subsequently, general linear modeling was used to explore the relationship between the distribution probability of these species and the damage caused by them. Finally, we assessed the ecological risk of insect pest expansion across different alpine ecosystems under climate change. RESULTS Climate change could increase the distribution probabilities of insect pest species across different alpine ecosystems. However, the presence of insect pest species may not correspond to the damage occurrence in alpine ecosystems based on percent leaf loss, amount of stunting, and seedling death of their host species. Significant positive relationships between distribution probability and damage occurrence were found for several of the examined insect pest species. Insect pest expansion is likely to increase extensively in alpine ecosystems under increasing carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emission scenarios. CONCLUSION The relationships between distribution probability and damage occurrence should be considered in species distribution modeling for risk assessment of insect pest expansion under climate change. Our study could improve the effectiveness of risk assessment of insect pest expansion under changing climate conditions. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chun-Jing Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture, Qinghai University, Xining, China
- College of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Qinghai University, Xining, China
| | - Rong Wang
- Forestry and Grassland Planning Institute of Qinghai Province, Forestry and Grassland Administration of Qinghai Province, Xining, China
| | - Chun-Mei Yu
- Forest Pest Control and Quarantine Station of Qinghai Province, Forestry and Grassland Administration of Qinghai Province, Xining, China
| | - Xiao-Peng Dang
- Forestry and Grassland Planning Institute of Qinghai Province, Forestry and Grassland Administration of Qinghai Province, Xining, China
| | - Wan-Gui Sun
- Forest Pest Control and Quarantine Station of Qinghai Province, Forestry and Grassland Administration of Qinghai Province, Xining, China
| | - Qiang-Feng Li
- College of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Qinghai University, Xining, China
| | - Xiao-Ting Wang
- Forest Pest Control and Quarantine Station of Qinghai Province, Forestry and Grassland Administration of Qinghai Province, Xining, China
| | - Ji-Zhong Wan
- State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture, Qinghai University, Xining, China
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Niche Modeling May Explain the Historical Population Failure of Phytoseiulus persimilis in Taiwan: Implications of Biocontrol Strategies. INSECTS 2021; 12:insects12050418. [PMID: 34066525 PMCID: PMC8148512 DOI: 10.3390/insects12050418] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2021] [Revised: 05/01/2021] [Accepted: 05/04/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Biological control commonly involves the commercialization and introduction of natural enemies. Phytoseiulus persimilis Athias-Henriot, a mite species widely used in the control of spider mites, was imported to Taiwan in the 1990s and was mass-reared and released into the field. However, none have been observed in comprehensive surveys of phytoseiid mites for over 30 years. In this study, the distribution of P. persimilis in Taiwan was predicted, and environmental variables that affect its distribution were analyzed. The mountainous region of southcentral Taiwan was determined to be suitable for the establishment of this species, whereas the four sites at which it was released in the 1990s, particularly those in southwestern Taiwan, exhibited low suitability. Notably, the minimum temperature of the coldest month was identified as a crucial limiting factor affecting the distribution of P. persimilis, indicating that a Mediterranean climate is more suitable for this species. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to predict the suitable distribution of exotic predatory mites in a biological control program. The present findings serve as a pivotal assessment framework for the commercialization and foreign introduction of natural enemies.
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Tang X, Yuan Y, Li X, Zhang J. Maximum Entropy Modeling to Predict the Impact of Climate Change on Pine Wilt Disease in China. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE 2021; 12:652500. [PMID: 33968109 PMCID: PMC8102737 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2021.652500] [Citation(s) in RCA: 47] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2021] [Accepted: 04/06/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Pine wilt disease is a devastating forest disease caused by the pinewood nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, which has been listed as the object of quarantine in China. Climate change influences species and may exacerbate the risk of forest diseases, such as the pine wilt disease. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used in this study to identify the current and potential distribution and habitat suitability of three pine species and B. xylophilus in China. Further, the potential distribution was modeled using the current (1970-2000) and the projected (2050 and 2070) climate data based on two representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5), and fairly robust prediction results were obtained. Our model identified that the area south of the Yangtze River in China was the most severely affected place by pine wilt disease, and the eastern foothills of the Tibetan Plateau acted as a geographical barrier to pest distribution. Bioclimatic variables related to temperature influenced pine trees' distribution, while those related to precipitation affected B. xylophilus's distribution. In the future, the suitable area of B. xylophilus will continue to increase; the shifts in the center of gravity of the suitable habitats of the three pine species and B. xylophilus will be different under climate change. The area ideal for pine trees will migrate slightly northward under RCP 8.5. The pine species will continue to face B. xylophilus threat in 2050 and 2070 under the two distinct climate change scenarios. Therefore, we should plan appropriate measures to prevent its expansion. Predicting the distribution of pine species and the impact of climate change on forest diseases is critical for controlling the pests according to local conditions. Thus, the MaxEnt model proposed in this study can be potentially used to forecast the species distribution and disease risks and provide guidance for the timely prevention and management of B. xylophilus.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xinggang Tang
- Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Jiangsu Province Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Restoration, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, China
| | - Yingdan Yuan
- Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Jiangsu Province Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Restoration, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, China
| | - Xiangming Li
- College of Materials Sciences and Technology, Guangdong University of Petrochemical Technology, Maoming, China
| | - Jinchi Zhang
- Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Jiangsu Province Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Restoration, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, China
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Wang F, Wang D, Guo G, Zhang M, Lang J, Wei J. Potential Distributions of the Invasive Barnacle Scale Ceroplastes cirripediformis (Hemiptera: Coccidae) Under Climate Change and Implications for Its Management. JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC ENTOMOLOGY 2021; 114:82-89. [PMID: 33184624 DOI: 10.1093/jee/toaa245] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Ceroplastes cirripediformis Comstock is one of the most destructive invasive pests that have caused various negative impacts to agricultural, ornamental, and greenhouse plants. Since it is time- and labor-consuming to control C. cirripediformis, habitat evaluation of this pest may be the most cost-effective method for predicting its dispersal and avoiding its outbreaks. Here, we evaluated the effects of climatic variables on distribution patterns of C. cirripediformis and produced a global risk map for its outbreak under current and future climate scenarios using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. Our results showed that mean temperature of driest quarter (Bio 9), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio 19), precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio 18), and mean temperature of wettest quarter (Bio 8) were the main factors influencing the current modeled distribution of C. cirripediformis, respectively, contributing 41.9, 29.4, 18.8, and 7.9%. The models predicted that, globally, potential distribution of C. cirripediformis would be across most zoogeographical regions under both current and future climate scenarios. Moreover, in the future, both the total potential distribution region and its area of highly suitable habitat are expected to expand slightly in all representative concentration pathway scenarios. The information generated from this study will contribute to better identify the impacts of climate change upon C. cirripediformis's potential distribution while also providing a scientific basis for forecasting insect pest spread and outbreaks. Furthermore, this study serves an early warning for the regions of potential distribution, predicted as highly suitable habitats for this pest, which could promote its prevention and control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fang Wang
- Hebei Key Laboratory of Animal Physiology, Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, College of Life Sciences, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, P.R. China
| | - Duo Wang
- Hebei Key Laboratory of Animal Physiology, Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, College of Life Sciences, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, P.R. China
| | - Ge Guo
- Hebei Key Laboratory of Animal Physiology, Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, College of Life Sciences, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, P.R. China
| | - Meixia Zhang
- Hebei Key Laboratory of Animal Physiology, Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, College of Life Sciences, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, P.R. China
| | - Jiayi Lang
- Hebei Key Laboratory of Animal Physiology, Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, College of Life Sciences, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, P.R. China
| | - Jiufeng Wei
- College of Plant Protection, Shanxi Agricultural University, Taigu, Shanxi, P.R. China
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Tang X, Yuan Y, Zhang J. How Climate Change Will Alter the Distribution of Suitable Dendrobium Habitats. Front Ecol Evol 2020. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2020.536339] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
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21
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Yan H, Feng L, Zhao Y, Feng L, Zhu C, Qu Y, Wang H. Predicting the potential distribution of an invasive species, Erigeron canadensis L., in China with a maximum entropy model. Glob Ecol Conserv 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00822] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/01/2023] Open
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22
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Modeling the Potential Global Distribution of Phenacoccus madeirensis Green under Various Climate Change Scenarios. FORESTS 2019. [DOI: 10.3390/f10090773] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The Madeira mealybug, Phenacoccus madeirensis Green, is a serious invasive pest that does significant damage to more than 120 genera of host plants from 51 families in more than 81 countries. However, the potential distribution range of this pest is unclear, which could hamper control and eradication efforts. In the current study, MaxEnt models were developed to forecast the current and future distribution of the Madeira mealybug around the world. Moreover, the future potential distribution of this invasive species was projected for the 2050s and 2070s under three different climate change scenarios (HADGEM2-AO, GFDL-CM3, and MIROC5) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP-2.6 and RCP-8.5). The final model indicates that the Madeira mealybug has a highly suitable range for the continents of Asia, Europe, and Africa, as well as South America and North America, where this species has already been recorded. Potential expansions or reductions in distribution were also simulated under different future climatic conditions. Our study also suggested that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9) was the most important factor and explained 46.9% of the distribution model. The distribution model from the current and future predictions can enhance the strategic planning of agricultural and forestry organization by identifying regions that will need to develop integrated pest management programs to manage Madeira mealybug, especially for some highly suitable areas, such as South Asia and Europe. Moreover, the results of this research will help governments to optimize investment in the control and management of the Madeira mealybug by identifying regions that are or will become suitable for infestations.
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