Is SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance in nasopharyngeal swabs an appropriate surrogate marker for clinical efficacy of neutralising antibody-based therapeutics?

Viral clearance as a surrogate of clinical efficacy for COVID-19 therapies in outpatients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Surrogates of antiviral efficacy are needed for COVID-19. We aimed to investigate the relationship between the virological effect of treatment and clinical efficacy as measured by progression to severe disease in outpatients treated for mild-to-moderate COVID-19.

METHODS

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Scopus, and medRxiv from database inception to Aug 16, 2023, for randomised placebo-controlled trials that tested virus-directed treatments (ie, any monoclonal antibodies, convalescent plasma, or antivirals) in non-hospitalised individuals with COVID-19. We only included studies that reported both clinical outcomes (ie, rate of disease progression to hospitalisation or death) and virological outcomes (ie, viral load within the first 7 days of treatment). We extracted summary data from eligible reports, with discrepancies resolved through discussion. We used an established meta-regression model with random effects to assess the association between clinical efficacy and virological treatment effect, and calculated I2 to quantify residual study heterogeneity.

FINDINGS

We identified 1718 unique studies, of which 22 (with a total of 16 684 participants) met the inclusion criteria, and were in primarily unvaccinated individuals. Risk of bias was assessed as low in 19 of 22 studies for clinical outcomes, whereas for virological outcomes, a high risk of bias was assessed in 11 studies, some risk in ten studies, and a low risk in one study. The unadjusted relative risk of disease progression for each extra log10 copies per mL reduction in viral load in treated compared with placebo groups was 0·12 (95% CI 0·04-0·34; p<0·0001) on day 3, 0·20 (0·08-0·50; p=0·0006) on day 5, and 0·53 (0·30-0·94; p=0·030) on day 7. The residual heterogeneity in our meta-regression was estimated as low (I2=0% [0-53] on day 3, 0% [0-71] on day 5, and 0% [0-43] on day 7).

INTERPRETATION

Despite the aggregation of studies with differing designs, and evidence of risk of bias in some virological outcomes, this review provides evidence that treatment-induced acceleration of viral clearance within the first 5 days after treatment is a potential surrogate of clinical efficacy to prevent hospitalisation with COVID-19. This work supports the use of viral clearance as an early phase clinical trial endpoint of therapeutic efficacy.

FUNDING

Australian Government Department of Health, Medical Research Future Fund, and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

A Critical Analysis of the Use of Cilgavimab plus Tixagevimab Monoclonal Antibody Cocktail (Evusheld™) for COVID-19 Prophylaxis and Treatment

Evusheld® (tixagevimab + cilgavimab; AZD7442) was the first anti-Spike monoclonal antibody (mAb) cocktail designed not only for treatment but also with pre-exposure prophylaxis in mind. The immunoglobulins were engineered for prolonged half-life by modifying the Fc fragment, thus creating a long-acting antibody (LAAB). We review here preclinical development, baseline and treatment-emergent resistance, clinical efficacy from registration trials, and real-world post-marketing evidence. The combination was initially approved for pre-exposure prophylaxis at the time of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC wave based on a trial conducted in unvaccinated subjects when the Alpha VOC was dominant. Another trial also conducted at the time of the Alpha VOC wave proved efficacy as early treatment in unvaccinated patients and led to authorization at the time of the BA.4/5 VOC wave. Tixagevimab was ineffective against any Omicron sublineage, so cilgavimab has so far been the ingredient which has made a difference. Antibody monotherapy has a high risk of selecting for immune escape variants in immunocompromised patients with high viral loads, which nowadays represent the main therapeutic indication for antibody therapies. Among Omicron sublineages, cilgavimab was ineffective against BA.1, recovered efficacy against BA.2 and BA.2.12.1, but lost efficacy again against BA.4/BA.5 and BA.2.75. Our analysis indicated that Evusheld® has been used during the Omicron VOC phase without robust clinical data of efficacy against this variant and suggested that several regulatory decisions regarding its use lacked consistency. There is an urgent need for new randomized controlled trials in vaccinated, immunocompromised subjects, using COVID-19 convalescent plasma as a control arm.

Human-to-dog transmission of SARS-CoV-2, Colombia

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of the current COVID-19 pandemic, has evolved to have a wide range of hosts, including non-human primates, wild and domestic animals. The ACE2 protein has a high level of conservation and is the common receptor invertebrate species for a viral infection to occur; this receptor could give rise to anthroponotic events. This article describes the first event of symptomatic transmission in Latin America from a human to a dog by the B.1.625 lineage of SARS-CoV-2. We found 21 shared mutations in the complete genomes of viral sequences from owners and dogs. Further phylogenetic and molecular analysis showed that 100% co-localization of the clade helps to understand human-animal transmission. Prediction of the Spike protein structure of the sequenced virus and docking analyzes showed that the E484K mutation in the receptor-binding domain (RBD) could contribute to the viral affinity of dACE2. Therefore, close contact between SARS-CoV-2-infected humans and pets should be avoided to prevent the emergence of novel mutations of public health importance from anthroponotic events.

The ins and outs of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs)

SARS-CoV-2, a newly emerging coronavirus that caused the COVID-19 epidemic, has been spreading quickly throughout the world. Despite immunization and some fairly effective therapeutic regimens, SARS-CoV-2 has been ravaging patients, health workers, and the economy. SARS-CoV-2 mutates and evolves to adapt to its host as a result of extreme selection pressure. As a consequence, new SARS-CoV-2 variants have emerged, some of which are classified as variants of concern (VOC) because they exhibit greater transmissibility, cause more-severe disease, are better able to escape immunity, or cause higher mortality than the original Wuhan strain. Here, we introduce these VOCs and review their characteristics, such as transmissibility, immune escape, mortality risk, and diagnostics.

Analysis of Immune Escape Variants from Antibody-Based Therapeutics against COVID-19: A Systematic Review

The accelerated SARS-CoV-2 evolution under selective pressure by massive deployment of neutralizing antibody-based therapeutics is a concern with potentially severe implications for public health. We review here reports of documented immune escape after treatment with monoclonal antibodies and COVID-19-convalescent plasma (CCP). While the former is mainly associated with specific single amino acid mutations at residues within the receptor-binding domain (e.g., E484K/Q, Q493R, and S494P), a few cases of immune evasion after CCP were associated with recurrent deletions within the N-terminal domain of the spike protein (e.g., ΔHV69-70, ΔLGVY141-144 and ΔAL243-244). The continuous genomic monitoring of non-responders is needed to better understand immune escape frequencies and the fitness of emerging variants.