Some design issues in phase 2B vs phase 3 prevention trials for testing efficacy of products or concepts

Revisiting the Correlate of Reduced HIV Infection Risk in the Rv144 Vaccine Trial

The RV144 vaccine trial is the only clinical study to have shown a modest but statistically significant decrease in HIV infection risk. RV144 and the subsequent studies identifying the level of V1V2-specific antibodies as a correlate of reduced infection risk are still controversial despite many papers supporting and expanding the initial study. We address these controversies and summarize active-immunization and passive-immunization experiments in nonhuman primates that support the initial finding.

Taking stock of the present and looking ahead: envisioning challenges in the design of future HIV prevention efficacy trials

Despite the recent success of antiretrovirals for HIV prevention, additional, more effective, or more acceptable biomedical interventions will ultimately be needed to end the HIV epidemic. Designing clinical trials to evaluate the efficacy of new products that reduce HIV infection risk is challenging because of the existence of highly effective interventions to prevent HIV. However, the implementation of these interventions is uneven, and the fact that multiple HIV prevention efficacy trials are currently evaluating new products means the field confronts uncertainty in the emerging standard of prevention. In this Viewpoint, we take stock of the current state of HIV prevention, and subsequently discuss the key challenges in designing future trials to evaluate the next generation of HIV prevention products. We also highlight gaps in the knowledge base that need to be addressed to advance the design of research. Future trials are tenable, even in the context of existing and effective interventions, and should involve careful statistical approaches and multidisciplinary collaborative design.

Ongoing Vaccine and Monoclonal Antibody HIV Prevention Efficacy Trials and Considerations for Sequel Efficacy Trial Designs

Four randomized placebo-controlled efficacy trials of a candidate vaccine or passively infused monoclonal antibody for prevention of HIV-1 infection are underway (HVTN 702 in South African men and women; HVTN 705 in sub-Saharan African women; HVTN 703/HPTN 081 in sub-Saharan African women; HVTN 704/HPTN 085 in U.S., Peruvian, Brazilian, and Swiss men or transgender persons who have sex with men). Several challenges are posed to the optimal design of the sequel efficacy trials, including: (1) how to account for the evolving mosaic of effective prevention interventions that may be part of the trial design or standard of prevention; (2) how to define viable and optimal sequel trial designs depending on the primary efficacy results and secondary "correlates of protection" results of each of the ongoing trials; and (3) how to define the primary objective of sequel efficacy trials if HIV-1 incidence is expected to be very low in all study arms such that a standard trial design has a steep opportunity cost. After summarizing the ongoing trials, I discuss statistical science considerations for sequel efficacy trial designs, both generally and specifically to each trial listed above. One conclusion is that the results of "correlates of protection" analyses, which ascertain how different host immunological markers and HIV-1 viral features impact HIV-1 risk and prevention efficacy, have an important influence on sequel trial design. This influence is especially relevant for the monoclonal antibody trials because of the focused pre-trial hypothesis that potency and coverage of serum neutralization constitutes a surrogate endpoint for HIV-1 infection. Another conclusion is that while assessing prevention efficacy against a counterfactual placebo group is fraught with risks for bias, such analysis is nonetheless important and study designs coupled with analysis methods should be developed to optimize such inferences. I draw a parallel with non-inferiority designs, which are fraught with risks given the necessity of making unverifiable assumptions for interpreting results, but nevertheless have been accepted when a superiority design is not possible and a rigorous/conservative non-inferiority margin is used. In a similar way, counterfactual placebo group efficacy analysis should use rigorous/conservative inference techniques that formally build in a rigorous/conservative margin to potential biases that could occur due to departures from unverifiable assumptions. Because reliability of this approach would require new techniques for verifying that the study cohort experienced substantial exposure to HIV-1, currently it may be appropriate as a secondary objective but not as a primary objective.

Basis and Statistical Design of the Passive HIV-1 Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) Test-of-Concept Efficacy Trials

BACKGROUND

Anti-HIV-1 broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) have been developed as potential agents for prevention of HIV-1 infection. The HIV Vaccine Trials Network and the HIV Prevention Trials Network are conducting the Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials to assess whether, and how, intravenous infusion of the anti-CD4 binding site bnAb, VRC01, prevents HIV-1 infection. These are the first test-of-concept studies to assess HIV-1 bnAb prevention efficacy in humans.

METHODS

The AMP trials are two parallel phase 2b HIV-1 prevention efficacy trials conducted in two cohorts: 2700 HIV-uninfected men and transgender persons who have sex with men in the United States, Peru, Brazil, and Switzerland; and 1500 HIV-uninfected sexually active women in seven countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Participants are randomized 1:1:1 to receive an intravenous infusion of 10 mg/kg VRC01, 30 mg/kg VRC01, or a control preparation every 8 weeks for a total of 10 infusions. Each trial is designed (1) to assess overall prevention efficacy (PE) pooled over the two VRC01 dose groups vs. control and (2) to assess VRC01 dose and laboratory markers as correlates of protection (CoPs) against overall and genotype- and phenotype-specific infection.

RESULTS

Each AMP trial is designed to have 90% power to detect PE > 0% if PE is ≥ 60%. The AMP trials are also designed to identify VRC01 properties (i.e., concentration and effector functions) that correlate with protection and to provide insight into mechanistic CoPs. CoPs are assessed using data from breakthrough HIV-1 infections, including genetic sequences and sensitivities to VRC01-mediated neutralization and Fc effector functions.

CONCLUSIONS

The AMP trials test whether VRC01 can prevent HIV-1 infection in two study populations. If affirmative, they will provide information for estimating the optimal dosage of VRC01 (or subsequent derivatives) and identify threshold levels of neutralization and Fc effector functions associated with high-level protection, setting a benchmark for future vaccine evaluation and constituting a bridge to other bnAb approaches for HIV-1 prevention.

Recent developments in clinical trial designs for HIV vaccine research

HIV vaccine strategies are expected to be a crucial component for controlling the HIV epidemic. Despite the large spectrum of potential candidate vaccines for both prophylactic and therapeutic use, the overall development process of an efficacious HIV vaccine strategy is lengthy. The design of clinical trials and the progression of a candidate strategy through the different clinical development stages remain methodologically challenging, mainly due to the lack of validated correlates of protection. In this review, we describe recent advances in clinical trial designs to increase the efficiency of the clinical development of candidate HIV vaccine strategies. The methodological aspects of the designs for early- (phase I and II) and later -stage (phase IIB and III) development are discussed, taking into account the specificities of both prophylactic and therapeutic HIV vaccine development.

Ethics, error, and initial trials of efficacy

Clinical trial reforms aimed at boosting phase 2 positive predictivity may involve ethical and social trade-offs.

An adaptive design to bridge the gap between Phase 2b/3 microbicide effectiveness trials and evidence required for licensure

Background

Vaginally and rectally applied microbicides are being developed to help prevent sexual acquisition of HIV. Due to the lack of surrogate outcomes, the path toward licensure typically moves directly from expanded safety studies to expensive Phase 2b/3 trials with rare incident infection outcomes. The need to confirm an initial trial’s significant finding can lead to serious delays in implementing essential programs to reduce the spread of HIV.

Purpose

To propose an adaptive design where a Phase 2b/3 study powered to detect a clinically meaningful effect with evidence of one trial (observing one-sided p < 0.025) is allowed to expand by a prespecified, feasible amount if interim data suggest the chance of further achieving a more robust evidence threshold ( p < 0.001, potentially sufficient for licensure from a single trial) is promising.

Methods

As an example, prespecified conditional power criteria are used to determine whether a 90-event trial with 90% power to detect a 50% reduction in risk should be expanded to 130 events. Asymptotic results and simulations are used to assess false-positive error rates and other operating characteristics of the design.

Results

False-positive error rates can be controlled at the desired 0.025 and 0.001 levels with appropriate choice of critical values or expansion criteria. The chance of achieving robust evidence can approach that of a 130-event trial with traditional stopping boundaries (controlling a = 0.001) but with substantially lower expected size for plausible effectiveness levels.

Limitations

Conditional power calculations assume the interim estimate of effect is an unbiased estimate for the remainder of the trial, an assumption which may not hold if product adherence varies over time. Observing a measure of effect with p < 0.001 may not be sufficient for licensure. A decision to expand the trial would be informative to investigators regarding the interim effect size.

Conclusions

A moderate increase in trial size can make the difference between a study with good power to detect a clinically meaningful effect and one which may reasonably obtain the robust evidence required for regulatory bodies and public health programs to consider making a new microbicide available to persons at risk of HIV infection. The proposed design allows for this possibility while not requiring investigators to make an up-front commitment to a prohibitively large trial.

HIV Vaccine Trials Network: activities and achievements of the first decade and beyond

The HIV Vaccine Trials Network (HVTN) is an international collaboration of scientists and educators facilitating the development of HIV/AIDS preventive vaccines. The HVTN conducts all phases of clinical trials, from evaluating experimental vaccines for safety and immunogenicity, to testing vaccine efficacy. Over the past decade, the HVTN has aimed to improve the process of designing, implementing and analyzing vaccine trials. Several major achievements include streamlining protocol development while maintaining input from diverse stakeholders, establishing a laboratory program with standardized assays and systems allowing for reliable immunogenicity assessments across trials, setting statistical standards for the field and actively engaging with site communities. These achievements have allowed the HVTN to conduct over 50 clinical trials and make numerous scientific contributions to the field.

AIDS vaccines and preexposure prophylaxis: is synergy possible?

While the long-term goal is to develop highly effective AIDS vaccines, first generation vaccines may be only partially effective. Other HIV prevention modalities such as preexposure prophylaxis with antiretrovirals (PrEP) may have limited efficacy as well. The combined administration of vaccine and PrEP (VAXPREP), however, may have a synergistic effect leading to an overall benefit that is greater than the sum of the individual effects. We propose two test-of-concept trial designs for an AIDS vaccine plus oral or topical ARV. In one design, evidence that PrEP reduces the risk of HIV acquisition is assumed to justify offering it to all participants. A two-arm study comparing PrEP alone to VAXPREP is proposed in which 30 to 60 incident infections are observed to assess the additional benefit of vaccination on risk of infection and setpoint viral load. The demonstrated superiority of VAXPREP does not imply vaccine alone is efficacious. Similarly, the lack of superiority does not imply vaccine alone is ineffective, as antagonism could exist between vaccine and PrEP. In the other design, PrEP is assumed not to be in general use. A 2 × 2 factorial design is proposed in which high-risk individuals are randomized to one of four arms: placebo vaccine given with placebo PrEP, placebo vaccine given with PrEP, vaccine given with placebo PrEP, or VAXPREP. Between 60 and 210 infections are required to detect a benefit of vaccination with or without PrEP on risk of HIV acquisition or setpoint viral load, with fewer infections needed when synergy is present.

A Sequential Phase 2b Trial Design for Evaluating Vaccine Efficacy and Immune Correlates for Multiple HIV Vaccine Regimens

Five preventative HIV vaccine efficacy trials have been conducted over the last 12 years, all of which evaluated vaccine efficacy (VE) to prevent HIV infection for a single vaccine regimen versus placebo. Now that one of these trials has supported partial VE of a prime-boost vaccine regimen, there is interest in conducting efficacy trials that simultaneously evaluate multiple prime-boost vaccine regimens against a shared placebo group in the same geographic region, for accelerating the pace of vaccine development. This article proposes such a design, which has main objectives (1) to evaluate VE of each regimen versus placebo against HIV exposures occurring near the time of the immunizations; (2) to evaluate durability of VE for each vaccine regimen showing reliable evidence for positive VE; (3) to expeditiously evaluate the immune correlates of protection if any vaccine regimen shows reliable evidence for positive VE; and (4) to compare VE among the vaccine regimens. The design uses sequential monitoring for the events of vaccine harm, non-efficacy, and high efficacy, selected to weed out poor vaccines as rapidly as possible while guarding against prematurely weeding out a vaccine that does not confer efficacy until most of the immunizations are received. The evaluation of the design shows that testing multiple vaccine regimens is important for providing a well-powered assessment of the correlation of vaccine-induced immune responses with HIV infection, and is critically important for providing a reasonably powered assessment of the value of identified correlates as surrogate endpoints for HIV infection.

Increasing the Efficiency of Prevention Trials by Incorporating Baseline Covariates

Most randomized efficacy trials of interventions to prevent HIV or other infectious diseases have assessed intervention efficacy by a method that either does not incorporate baseline covariates, or that incorporates them in a non-robust or inefficient way. Yet, it has long been known that randomized treatment effects can be assessed with greater efficiency by incorporating baseline covariates that predict the response variable. Tsiatis et al. (2007) and Zhang et al. (2008) advocated a semiparametric efficient approach, based on the theory of Robins et al. (1994), for consistently estimating randomized treatment effects that optimally incorporates predictive baseline covariates, without any parametric assumptions. They stressed the objectivity of the approach, which is achieved by separating the modeling of baseline predictors from the estimation of the treatment effect. While their work adequately justifies implementation of the method for large Phase 3 trials (because its optimality is in terms of asymptotic properties), its performance for intermediate-sized screening Phase 2b efficacy trials, which are increasing in frequency, is unknown. Furthermore, the past work did not consider a right-censored time-to-event endpoint, which is the usual primary endpoint for a prevention trial. For Phase 2b HIV vaccine efficacy trials, we study finite-sample performance of Zhang et al.'s (2008) method for a dichotomous endpoint, and develop and study an adaptation of this method to a discrete right-censored time-to-event endpoint. We show that, given the predictive capacity of baseline covariates collected in real HIV prevention trials, the methods achieve 5-15% gains in efficiency compared to methods in current use. We apply the methods to the first HIV vaccine efficacy trial. This work supports implementation of the discrete failure time method for prevention trials.