The use of an extended baseline period in the evaluation of treatment in a longitudinal Duchenne muscular dystrophy trial

Clinical trials for Wolfram syndrome neurodegeneration: Novel design, endpoints, and analysis models

OBJECTIVE

Wolfram syndrome, an ultra-rare condition, currently lacks effective treatment options. The rarity of this disease presents significant challenges in conducting clinical trials, particularly in achieving sufficient statistical power (e.g., 80%). The objective of this study is to propose a novel clinical trial design based on real-world data to reduce the sample size required for conducting clinical trials for Wolfram syndrome.

METHODS

We propose a novel clinical trial design with three key features aimed at reducing sample size and improve efficiency: (i) Pooling historical/external controls from a longitudinal observational study conducted by the Washington University Wolfram Research Clinic. (ii) Utilizing run-in data to estimate model parameters. (iii) Simultaneously tracking treatment effects in two endpoints using a multivariate proportional linear mixed effects model.

RESULTS

Comprehensive simulations were conducted based on real-world data obtained through the Wolfram syndrome longitudinal observational study. Our simulations demonstrate that this proposed design can substantially reduce sample size requirements. Specifically, with a bivariate endpoint and the inclusion of run-in data, a sample size of approximately 30 per group can achieve over 80% power, assuming the placebo progression rate remains consistent during both the run-in and randomized periods. In cases where the placebo progression rate varies, the sample size increases to approximately 50 per group.

CONCLUSIONS

For rare diseases like Wolfram syndrome, leveraging existing resources such as historical/external controls and run-in data, along with evaluating comprehensive treatment effects using bivariate/multivariate endpoints, can significantly expedite the development of new drugs.

Clinical Trials for Wolfram Syndrome Neurodegeneration: Novel Design, Endpoints, and Analysis Models

Objective

Wolfram syndrome, an ultra-rare condition, currently lacks effective treatment options. The rarity of this disease presents significant challenges in conducting clinical trials, particularly in achieving sufficient statistical power (e.g., 80%). The objective of this study is to propose a novel clinical trial design based on real-world data to reduce the sample size required for conducting clinical trials for Wolfram syndrome.

Methods

We propose a novel clinical trial design with three key features aimed at reducing sample size and improve efficiency: (i) Pooling historical/external controls from a longitudinal observational study conducted by the Washington University Wolfram Research Clinic. (ii) Utilizing run-in data to estimate model parameters. (iii) Simultaneously tracking treatment effects in two endpoints using a multivariate proportional linear mixed effects model.

Results

Comprehensive simulations were conducted based on real-world data obtained through the Wolfram syndrome longitudinal observational study. Our simulations demonstrate that this proposed design can substantially reduce sample size requirements. Specifically, with a bivariate endpoint and the inclusion of run-in data, a sample size of approximately 30 per group can achieve over 80% power, assuming the placebo progression rate remains consistent during both the run-in and randomized periods. In cases where the placebo progression rate varies, the sample size increases to approximately 50 per group.

Conclusions

For rare diseases like Wolfram syndrome, leveraging existing resources such as historical/external controls and run-in data, along with evaluating comprehensive treatment effects using bivariate/multivariate endpoints, can significantly expedite the development of new drugs.

NIA Long Life Family Study: Objectives, Design, and Heritability of Cross Sectional and Longitudinal Phenotypes

The NIA Long Life Family Study (LLFS) is a longitudinal, multicenter, multinational, population-based multigenerational family study of the genetic and nongenetic determinants of exceptional longevity and healthy aging. The Visit 1 in-person evaluation (2006–2009) recruited 4 953 individuals from 539 two-generation families, selected from the upper 1% tail of the Family Longevity Selection Score (FLoSS, which quantifies the degree of familial clustering of longevity). Demographic, anthropometric, cognitive, activities of daily living, ankle-brachial index, blood pressure, physical performance, and pulmonary function, along with serum, plasma, lymphocytes, red cells, and DNA, were collected. A Genome Wide Association Scan (GWAS) (Ilumina Omni 2.5M chip) followed by imputation was conducted. Visit 2 (2014–2017) repeated all Visit 1 protocols and added carotid ultrasonography of atherosclerotic plaque and wall thickness, additional cognitive testing, and perceived fatigability. On average, LLFS families show healthier aging profiles than reference populations, such as the Framingham Heart Study, at all age/sex groups, for many critical healthy aging phenotypes. However, participants are not uniformly protected. There is considerable heterogeneity among the pedigrees, with some showing exceptional cognition, others showing exceptional grip strength, others exceptional pulmonary function, etc. with little overlap in these families. There is strong heritability for key healthy aging phenotypes, both cross-sectionally and longitudinally, suggesting that at least some of this protection may be genetic. Little of the variance in these heritable phenotypes is explained by the common genome (GWAS + Imputation), which may indicate that rare protective variants for specific phenotypes may be running in selected families.

Long-term benefit of enzyme replacement therapy with alglucosidase alfa in adults with Pompe disease: Prospective analysis from the French Pompe Registry

Despite a wide clinical spectrum, the adult form of Pompe disease is the most common one, and represents more than 90% of diagnosed patients in France. Since the marketing of enzyme replacement therapy (alglucosidase alfa, Myozyme), all reports to date in adults demonstrated an improvement of the walking distance, and a trend toward stabilization of respiratory function, but the majority of these studies were less than 5 years of duration. We report here the findings from 158 treated patients included in the French Pompe Registry, who underwent regular clinical assessments based on commonly used standardized tests (6-minute walking test, MFM scale, sitting vital capacity, MIP and MEP). For longitudinal analyses, the linear mixed effects models were used to assess trends in primary endpoints over time under ERT. A two-phase model better described the changes in distance traveled in the 6-minute walk test and MFM. 6MWT showed an initial significant increase (1.4% ± 0.5/year) followed by a progressive decline (-2.3%/year), with a cut-off point at 2.2 years. A similar pattern was observed in total MFM score (6.6% ± 2.3/year followed by a - 1.1%/year decline after 0.5 years). A single-phase decline with a slope of -0.9 ± 0.1%/year (P < .001) was observed for FVC, and MEP remained stable over the all duration of follow-up. This study provides further evidence that ERT improves walking abilities and likely stabilizes respiratory function in adult patients with Pompe disease, with a ceiling effect for the 6MWT in the first 3 years of treatment.

Long term longitudinal study of muscle function in patients with glycogen storage disease type IIIa

Glycogen storage disease type III (GSDIII) is an autosomal recessive disorder caused by mutations in the AGL gene coding for the glycogen debranching enzyme. Current therapy is based on dietary adaptations but new preclinical therapies are emerging. The identification of outcome measures which are sensitive to disease progression becomes critical to assess the efficacy of new treatments in upcoming clinical trials. In order to prepare future longitudinal studies or therapeutic trials with large cohorts, information about disease progression is required. In this study we present preliminary longitudinal data of Motor Function Measure (MFM), timed tests, Purdue pegboard test, and handgrip strength collected over 5 to 9years of follow-up in 13 patients with GSDIII aged between 13 and 56years old. Follow-up for nine of the 13 patients was up to 9years. Similarly to our previous cross-sectional retrospective study, handgrip strength significantly decreased with age in patients older than 37years. MFM scores started to decline after the age of 35. The Purdue pegboard score also significantly reduced with increasing age (from 13years of age) but with large inter-visit variations. The time to stand up from a chair or to climb 4 stairs increased dramatically in some but not all patients older than 30years old. In conclusion, this preliminary longitudinal study suggests that MFM and handgrip strength are the most sensitive muscle function outcome measures in GSDIII patients from the end of their third decade. Sensitive muscle outcome measures remain to be identified in younger GSDIII patients but is challenging as muscle symptoms remain discrete and often present as accumulated fatigue.

Clustering of longitudinal data by using an extended baseline: A new method for treatment efficacy clustering in longitudinal data

Heterogeneity in treatment efficacy is a major concern in clinical trials. Clustering may help to identify the treatment responders and the non-responders. In the context of longitudinal cluster analyses, sample size and variability of the times of measurements are the main issues with the current methods. Here, we propose a new two-step method for the Clustering of Longitudinal data by using an Extended Baseline. The first step relies on a piecewise linear mixed model for repeated measurements with a treatment-time interaction. The second step clusters the random predictions and considers several parametric (model-based) and non-parametric (partitioning, ascendant hierarchical clustering) algorithms. A simulation study compares all options of the clustering of longitudinal data by using an extended baseline method with the latent-class mixed model. The clustering of longitudinal data by using an extended baseline method with the two model-based algorithms was the more robust model. The clustering of longitudinal data by using an extended baseline method with all the non-parametric algorithms failed when there were unequal variances of treatment effect between clusters or when the subgroups had unbalanced sample sizes. The latent-class mixed model failed when the between-patients slope variability is high. Two real data sets on neurodegenerative disease and on obesity illustrate the clustering of longitudinal data by using an extended baseline method and show how clustering may help to identify the marker(s) of the treatment response. The application of the clustering of longitudinal data by using an extended baseline method in exploratory analysis as the first stage before setting up stratified designs can provide a better estimation of treatment effect in future clinical trials.

Genome-wide association studies identified novel loci for non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and its postprandial lipemic response

Non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol(NHDL) is an independent and superior predictor of CVD risk as compared to low-density lipoprotein alone. It represents a spectrum of atherogenic lipid fractions with possibly a distinct genomic signature. We performed genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to identify loci influencing baseline NHDL and its postprandial lipemic (PPL) response. We carried out GWAS in 4,241 participants of European descent. Our discovery cohort included 928 subjects from the Genetics of Lipid-Lowering Drugs and Diet Network Study. Our replication cohorts included 3,313 subjects from the Heredity and Phenotype Intervention Heart Study and Family Heart Study. A linear mixed model using the kinship matrix was used for association tests. The best association signal was found in a tri-genic region at RHOQ-PIGF-CRIPT for baseline NHDL (lead SNP rs6544903, discovery p = 7e-7, MAF = 2 %; validation p = 6e-4 at 0.1 kb upstream neighboring SNP rs3768725, and 5e-4 at 0.7 kb downstream neighboring SNP rs6733143, MAF = 10 %). The lead and neighboring SNPs were not perfect surrogate proxies to each other (D' = 1, r (2) = 0.003) but they seemed to be partially dependent (likelihood ration test p = 0.04). Other suggestive loci (discovery p < 1e-6) included LOC100419812 and LOC100288337 for baseline NHDL, and LOC100420502 and CDH13 for NHDL PPL response that were not replicated (p > 0.01). The current and first GWAS of NHDL yielded an interesting common variant in RHOQ-PIGF-CRIPT influencing baseline NHDL levels. Another common variant in CDH13 for NHDL response to dietary high-fat intake challenge was also suggested. Further validations for both loci from large independent studies, especially interventional studies, are warranted.

A randomized comparative study of two methods for controlling Tendo Achilles contracture in Duchenne muscular dystrophy

A 30-month prospective randomized study of 27 Scandinavian boys with confirmed diagnosis of Duchenne muscular dystrophy was done to compare the effect of passive stretching combined with the use of night splints (group A) or passive stretching (group B) on the evolution of Tendo Achilles contractures. Assessments were based on the methodology of Scott et al. (Muscle Nerve 1982;5:291-301)Analysis of the pattern and mechanism of dropout was done to eliminate bias between the two groups. Logistic regression showed that Tendo Achilles contracture was the most important variable (P=0.0020) for dropout. Methods of statistical analysis for longitudinal data avoiding induced serial correlations were used in the analysis. The expected annual change in Tendo Achilles contracture was found to be 23% less in group A than in group B after equalization for total muscle strength (%MRC).

Mild senile dementia of the Alzheimer type. 4. Evaluation of intervention

The design of trials of interventions intended to slow or arrest the progression of senile dementia of the Alzheimer type must be based on analysis of the natural history of the disease. Using a random coefficients statistical model, we analyzed the natural history of senile dementia of the Alzheimer type in carefully defined subjects with mild disease (n = 68) for periods of up to 10 years. Subject performance was assessed longitudinally on batteries of clinical and psychometric measures. The characteristics of these measures were analyzed relevant to their utility as outcome measures for long-term trials in patients with senile dementia of the Alzheimer type. Estimates were made of sample sizes required to show arrest, and 50% or 25% slowing in the progression of mild disease. We suggest that a clinically relevant global measure, such as the Sum of Boxes of the Clinical Dementia Rating scale, and a performance-based clinical scale or psychometric measure would be appropriate in a 12- or 24-month trial enrolling subjects with mild senile dementia of the Alzheimer type.

Assessment of locomotor function in young boys with Duchenne muscular dystrophy

Thirty-three young boys (mean age 3.42 years) with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) and 21 normal control boys (mean age 3.51 years) were studied prospectively to determine whether it is possible to objectively assess locomotor function in young boys with DMD so that they can be included in treatment trials. An initial reproducibility study using a hand-held myometer demonstrated that this method was not useful. The Hammersmith Motor Ability Score demonstrated an increase in developmental abilities with age which was markedly different from normal. The locomotor quotient of the Griffiths' Scales demonstrated a deterioration of quotient scores and is a useful method of assessment that could be used in treatment trials involving young boys with DMD. Sample size planning for treatment trials is discussed.