Enriching the design of Alzheimer's disease clinical trials: Application of the polygenic hazard score and composite outcome measures

Enrichment for clinical trials of early AD: Combining genetic risk factors and plasma p-tau as screening instruments

INTRODUCTION

Identifying low-cost, minimally-invasive screening instruments for Alzheimer's disease (AD) trial enrichment will improve the efficiency of AD trials.

METHODS

A total of 685 cognitively normal (CN) individuals and individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) were grouped according to cutoffs of genetic risk factor (G) polygenic hazard score (PHS) and tau pathology (T) plasma phosphorylated tau-181 (p-tau181) into four groups: G+T+, G-T-, G+T-, and G-T+. We assessed the associations between group level and longitudinal cognitive decline and AD conversion. Power analyses compared the estimated sample size required to detect differences in cognitive decline.

RESULTS

The G+T+ group was associated with faster cognitive decline and higher AD risk. Clinical trials enrolling G+T+ participants would benefit from significantly reduced sample sizes compared with similar trials using only single makers as an inclusion criterion.

DISCUSSION

The combination of two low-cost, minimally-invasive measures-genetics and plasma biomarkers-would be a promising screening procedure for clinical trial enrollment.

HIGHLIGHTS

Participants with unimpaired or mildly impaired cognition were grouped based on cutoffs on genetic risk factors (G: polygenic hazardous score [PHS]) and Alzheimer's pathology (T: baseline plasma phosphorylated tau-181 [p-tau181]). Participants with high PHSs and plasma p-tau181 levels (G+T+) were at risk of faster cognitive decline and AD progression. The combination of PHS and plasma p-tau181 could enhance clinical trial enrichment more effectively than using single biomarkers.

Multi-Omic Blood Biomarkers as Dynamic Risk Predictors in Late-Onset Alzheimer's Disease

Late-onset Alzheimer's disease is the leading cause of dementia worldwide, accounting for a growing burden of morbidity and mortality. Diagnosing Alzheimer's disease before symptoms are established is clinically challenging, but would provide therapeutic windows for disease-modifying interventions. Blood biomarkers, including genetics, proteins and metabolites, are emerging as powerful predictors of Alzheimer's disease at various timepoints within the disease course, including at the preclinical stage. In this review, we discuss recent advances in such blood biomarkers for determining disease risk. We highlight how leveraging polygenic risk scores, based on genome-wide association studies, can help stratify individuals along their risk profile. We summarize studies analyzing protein biomarkers, as well as report on recent proteomic- and metabolomic-based prediction models. Finally, we discuss how a combination of multi-omic blood biomarkers can potentially be used in memory clinics for diagnosis and to assess the dynamic risk an individual has for developing Alzheimer's disease dementia.

Toward the right treatment at the right time: Modeling the trajectory of cognitive decline to identify the earliest age of change in people with Alzheimer's disease

Introduction

Age is the greatest risk factor for Alzheimer's disease (AD). A limitation of randomized control trials in AD is a lack of specificity in the age ranges of participants who are enrolled in studies of disease-modifying therapies. We aimed to apply Emax (i.e., maximum effect) modeling as a novel approach to identity ideal treatment windows.

Methods

Emax curves were fitted to longitudinal cognitive data of 101 participants with AD and 1392 healthy controls. We included the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and tests of verbal fluency and executive functioning.

Results

In people with AD, the earliest decline in the MMSE could be detected in the 67-71 age band while verbal fluency declined from the 41-45 age band. In healthy controls, changes in cognition showed a later trajectory of decline.

Discussion

Emax modeling could be used to design more efficient trials which has implications for randomized control trials targeting the earlier stages of AD.

Improved multimodal prediction of progression from MCI to Alzheimer's disease combining genetics with quantitative brain MRI and cognitive measures

INTRODUCTION

There is a pressing need for non-invasive, cost-effective tools for early detection of Alzheimer's disease (AD).

METHODS

Using data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), Cox proportional models were conducted to develop a multimodal hazard score (MHS) combining age, a polygenic hazard score (PHS), brain atrophy, and memory to predict conversion from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to dementia. Power calculations estimated required clinical trial sample sizes after hypothetical enrichment using the MHS. Cox regression determined predicted age of onset for AD pathology from the PHS.

RESULTS

The MHS predicted conversion from MCI to dementia (hazard ratio for 80th versus 20th percentile: 27.03). Models suggest that application of the MHS could reduce clinical trial sample sizes by 67%. The PHS alone predicted age of onset of amyloid and tau.

DISCUSSION

The MHS may improve early detection of AD for use in memory clinics or for clinical trial enrichment.

HIGHLIGHTS

A multimodal hazard score (MHS) combined age, genetics, brain atrophy, and memory. The MHS predicted time to conversion from mild cognitive impairment to dementia. MHS reduced hypothetical Alzheimer's disease (AD) clinical trial sample sizes by 67%. A polygenic hazard score predicted age of onset of AD neuropathology.

A simple genetic stratification method for lower cost, more expedient clinical trials in early Alzheimer's disease: A preliminary study of tau PET and cognitive outcomes

INTRODUCTION

Identifying individuals who are most likely to accumulate tau and exhibit cognitive decline is critical for Alzheimer's disease (AD) clinical trials.

METHODS

Participants (N = 235) who were cognitively normal or with mild cognitive impairment from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative were stratified by a cutoff on the polygenic hazard score (PHS) at 65th percentile (above as high-risk group and below as low-risk group). We evaluated the associations between the PHS risk groups and tau positron emission tomography and cognitive decline, respectively. Power analyses estimated the sample size needed for clinical trials to detect differences in tau accumulation or cognitive change.

RESULTS

The high-risk group showed faster tau accumulation and cognitive decline. Clinical trials using the high-risk group would require a fraction of the sample size as trials without this inclusion criterion.

DISCUSSION

Incorporating a PHS inclusion criterion represents a low-cost and accessible way to identify potential participants for AD clinical trials.

Sum of boxes of the clinical dementia rating scale highly predicts conversion or reversion in predementia stages

Background

The clinical dementia rating (CDR) scale is commonly used to diagnose dementia due to Alzheimer's disease (AD). The sum of boxes of the CDR (CDR-SB) has recently been emphasized and applied to interventional trials for tracing the progression of cognitive impairment (CI) in the early stages of AD. We aimed to study the influence of baseline CDR-SB on disease progression to dementia or reversion to normal cognition (NC).

Materials and methods

The baseline CDR < 1 cohort registered from September 2015 to August 2020 with longitudinal follow-up in the History-based Artificial Intelligence Clinical Dementia Diagnostic System (HAICDDS) database was retrospectively analyzed for the rates of conversion to CDR ≥ 1. A Cox regression model was applied to study the influence of CDR-SB levels on progression, adjusting for age, education, sex, neuropsychological tests, neuropsychiatric symptoms, parkinsonism, and multiple vascular risk factors.

Results

A total of 1,827 participants were analyzed, including 1,258 (68.9%) non-converters, and 569 (31.1%) converters with mean follow-up of 2.1 (range 0.4-5.5) and 1.8 (range 0.3-5.0) years, respectively. Conversion rates increased with increasing CDR-SB scores. Compared to a CDR-SB score of 0, the hazard ratios (HR) for conversion to dementia were 1.51, 1.91, 2.58, 2.13, 3.46, 3.85, 3.19, 5.12, and 5.22 for CDR-SB scores of 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, 3.5, 4.0, and ≥4.5, respectively (all p < 0.05 except for CDR-SB score = 0.5). In addition, older age, lower education, lower cognitive performance, and a history of diabetes also increased conversion rates. Furthermore, reversions to NC were 12.5, 5.6, 0.9, and 0% for CDR-SB scores of 0.5, 1.0-2.0, 2.5-3.5 and ≥4.0, respectively (p < 0.001).

Conclusion

CDR-SB in predementia or very mild dementia (VMD) stages highly predicts progression to dementia or reversion to NC. Therefore, CDR-SB could be a good candidate for tracing the effectiveness of pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions in populations without dementia.

The neuroinflammatory marker sTNFR2 relates to worse cognition and tau in women across the Alzheimer's disease spectrum

Introduction

Despite women showing greater Alzheimer's disease (AD) prevalence, tau burden, and immune/neuroinflammatory response, whether neuroinflammation impacts cognition differently in women versus men and the biological basis of this impact remain unknown. We examined sex differences in how cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) neuroinflammation relates to cognition across the aging-mild cognitive impairment (MCI)-AD continuum and the mediating role of phosphorylated tau (p-tau) versus other AD biomarkers.

Methods

Participants included 284 individuals from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative study. CSF neuroinflammatory markers included interleukin-6, tumor necrosis factor α, soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 2 (sTNFR2), and chitinase-3-like protein 1. AD biomarkers were CSF p-tau181 and amyloid beta1-42 levels and magnetic resonance imaging measures of hippocampal and white matter hyperintensity volumes.

Results

We found a sex-by-sTNFR2 interaction on Mini-Mental State Examination and Clinical Dementia Rating-Sum of Boxes. Higher levels of sTNFR2 related to poorer cognition in women only. Among biomarkers, only p-tau181 eliminated the female-specific relationships between neuroinflammation and cognition.

Discussion

Women may be more susceptible than men to the adverse effects of sTNFR2 on cognition with a potential etiological link with tau to these effects.

Improving the Utility of Polygenic Risk Scores as a Biomarker for Alzheimer's Disease

The treatment of complex and multifactorial diseases constitutes a big challenge in day-to-day clinical practice. As many parameters influence clinical phenotypes, accurate diagnosis and prompt therapeutic management is often difficult. Significant research and investment focuses on state-of-the-art genomic and metagenomic analyses in the burgeoning field of Precision (or Personalized) Medicine with genome-wide-association-studies (GWAS) helping in this direction by linking patient genotypes at specific polymorphic sites (single-nucleotide polymorphisms, SNPs) to the specific phenotype. The generation of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) is a relatively novel statistical method that associates the collective genotypes at many of a person’s SNPs to a trait or disease. As GWAS sample sizes increase, PRSs may become a powerful tool for prevention, early diagnosis and treatment. However, the complexity and multidimensionality of genetic and environmental contributions to phenotypes continue to pose significant challenges for the clinical, broad-scale use of PRSs. To improve the value of PRS measures, we propose a novel pipeline which might better utilize GWAS results and improve the utility of PRS when applied to Alzheimer’s Disease (AD), as a paradigm of multifactorial disease with existing large GWAS datasets that have not yet achieved significant clinical impact. We propose a refined approach for the construction of AD PRS improved by (1), taking into consideration the genetic loci where the SNPs are located, (2) evaluating the post-translational impact of SNPs on coding and non-coding regions by focusing on overlap with open chromatin data and SNPs that are expression quantitative trait loci (QTLs), and (3) scoring and annotating the severity of the associated clinical phenotype into the PRS. Open chromatin and eQTL data need to be carefully selected based on tissue/cell type of origin (e.g., brain, excitatory neurons). Applying such filters to traditional PRS on GWAS studies of complex diseases like AD, can produce a set of SNPs weighted according to our algorithm and a more useful PRS. Our proposed methodology may pave the way for new applications of genomic machine and deep learning pipelines to GWAS datasets in an effort to identify novel clinically useful genetic biomarkers for complex diseases like AD.