A simple genetic stratification method for lower cost, more expedient clinical trials in early Alzheimer's disease: A preliminary study of tau PET and cognitive outcomes

INTRODUCTION

Identifying individuals who are most likely to accumulate tau and exhibit cognitive decline is critical for Alzheimer's disease (AD) clinical trials.

METHODS

Participants (N = 235) who were cognitively normal or with mild cognitive impairment from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative were stratified by a cutoff on the polygenic hazard score (PHS) at 65th percentile (above as high-risk group and below as low-risk group). We evaluated the associations between the PHS risk groups and tau positron emission tomography and cognitive decline, respectively. Power analyses estimated the sample size needed for clinical trials to detect differences in tau accumulation or cognitive change.

RESULTS

The high-risk group showed faster tau accumulation and cognitive decline. Clinical trials using the high-risk group would require a fraction of the sample size as trials without this inclusion criterion.

DISCUSSION

Incorporating a PHS inclusion criterion represents a low-cost and accessible way to identify potential participants for AD clinical trials.

Polygenic hazard score modified the relationship between hippocampal subfield atrophy and episodic memory in older adults

BACKGROUND

Understanding genetic influences on Alzheimer's disease (AD) may improve early identification. Polygenic hazard score (PHS) is associated with the age of AD onset and cognitive decline. It interacts with other risk factors, but the nature of such combined effects remains poorly understood.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We examined the effect of genetic risk and hippocampal atrophy pattern on episodic memory in a sample of older adults ranging from cognitively normal to those diagnosed with AD using structural MRI. Participants included 51 memory unimpaired normal control (NC), 69 mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and 43 AD adults enrolled in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). Hierarchical linear regression analyses examined the main and interaction effects of hippocampal subfield volumes and PHS, indicating genetic risk for AD, on a validated episodic memory composite score. Diagnosis-stratified models further assessed the role of PHS.

RESULTS

Polygenic hazard score moderated the relationship between right fimbria/hippocampus volume ratio and episodic memory, such that patients with high PHS and lower volume ratio had lower episodic memory composite scores [ΔF = 6.730, p = 0.011, ΔR 2 = 0.059]. This effect was also found among individuals with MCI [ΔF = 4.519, p = 0.038, ΔR 2 = 0.050]. In contrast, no interaction effects were present for those NC or AD individuals. A follow-up mediation analysis also indicated that the right fimbria/hippocampus volume ratio might mediate the link between PHS and episodic memory performance in the MCI group, whereas no mediation effects were present for those NC or AD individuals.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest that the interaction between AD genetic risk and hippocampal subfield volume ratio increases memory impairment among older adults. Also, the results highlighted a potential pathway in which genetic risk affects memory by degrading hippocampal subfield volume ratio in cognitive decline subjects.

Using Polygenic Hazard Scores to Predict Age at Onset of Alzheimer's Disease in Nordic Populations

BACKGROUND

Polygenic hazard scores (PHS) estimate age-dependent genetic risk of late-onset Alzheimer's disease (AD), but there is limited information about the performance of PHS on real-world data where the population of interest differs from the model development population and part of the model genotypes are missing or need to be imputed.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to estimate age-dependent risk of late-onset AD using polygenic predictors in Nordic populations.

METHODS

We used Desikan PHS model, based on Cox proportional hazards assumption, to obtain age-dependent hazard scores for AD from individual genotypes in the Norwegian DemGene cohort (n = 2,772). We assessed the risk discrimination and calibration of Desikan model and extended it by adding new genotype markers (the Desikan Nordic model). Finally, we evaluated both Desikan and Desikan Nordic models in two independent Danish cohorts: The Copenhagen City Heart Study (CCHS) cohort (n = 7,643) and The Copenhagen General Population Study (CGPS) cohort (n = 10,886).

RESULTS

We showed a robust prediction efficiency of Desikan model in stratifying AD risk groups in Nordic populations, even when some of the model SNPs were missing or imputed. We attempted to improve Desikan PHS model by adding new SNPs to it, but we still achieved similar risk discrimination and calibration with the extended model.

CONCLUSION

PHS modeling has the potential to guide the timing of treatment initiation based on individual risk profiles and can help enrich clinical trials with people at high risk to AD in Nordic populations.

Polygenic Hazard Score Associated Multimodal Brain Networks Along the Alzheimer's Disease Continuum

BACKGROUND

Late-onset Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a polygenic neurodegenerative disease. Identifying the neuroimaging phenotypes behind the genetic predisposition of AD is critical to the understanding of AD pathogenesis. Two major questions which previous studies have led to are: (1) should the general "polygenic hazard score" (PHS) be a good choice to identify the individual genetic risk for AD; and (2) should researchers also include inter-modality relationships in the analyses considering these may provide complementary information about the AD etiology.

METHODS

We collected 88 healthy controls, 77 patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and 22 AD patients to simulate the AD continuum included from the ADNI database. PHS-guided multimodal fusion was used to investigate the impact of PHS on multimodal brain networks in AD-continuum by maximizing both inter-modality association and reference-modality correlation. Fractional amplitude of low frequency fluctuations, gray matter (GM) volume, and amyloid standard uptake value ratios were included as neuroimaging features. Eventually, the changes in neuroimaging features along AD continuum were investigated, and relationships between cognitive performance and identified PHS associated multimodal components were established.

RESULTS

We found that PHS was associated with multimodal brain networks, which showed different functional and structural impairments under increased amyloid deposits. Notably, along with AD progression, functional impairment occurred before GM atrophy, amyloid deposition started from the MCI stage and progressively increased throughout the disease continuum.

CONCLUSION

PHS is associated with multi-facets of brain impairments along the AD continuum, including cognitive dysfunction, pathological deposition, which might underpin the AD pathogenesis.

Polygenic Score Models for Alzheimer's Disease: From Research to Clinical Applications

The high prevalence of Alzheimer's disease (AD) among the elderly population and its lack of effective treatments make this disease a critical threat to human health. Recent epidemiological and genetics studies have revealed the polygenic nature of the disease, which is possibly explainable by a polygenic score model that considers multiple genetic risks. Here, we systemically review the rationale and methods used to construct polygenic score models for studying AD. We also discuss the associations of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) with clinical outcomes, brain imaging findings, and biochemical biomarkers from both the brain and peripheral system. Finally, we discuss the possibility of incorporating polygenic score models into research and clinical practice along with potential challenges.

Enriching the design of Alzheimer's disease clinical trials: Application of the polygenic hazard score and composite outcome measures

INTRODUCTION

Selecting individuals at high risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia and using the most sensitive outcome measures are important aspects of trial design.

METHODS

We divided participants from Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative at the 50th percentile of the predicted absolute risk of the polygenic hazard score (PHS). Outcome measures were the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Schedule-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog), ADNI-Mem, Clinical Dementia Rating-Sum of Boxes (CDR SB), and Cognitive Function Composite 2 (CFC2). In addition to modeling, we use a power analysis compare numbers needed with each technique.

RESULTS

Data from 188 cognitively normal and 319 mild cognitively impaired (MCI) participants were analyzed. Using the ADAS-Cog to estimate sample sizes, without stratification over 24 months, would require 930 participants with MCI, while using the CFC2 and restricting participants to those in the upper 50th percentile would require only 284 participants.

DISCUSSION

Combining stratification by PHS and selection of a sensitive combined outcome measure in a cohort of patients with MCI can allow trial design that is more efficient, potentially less burdensome on participants, and more cost effective.

A Genetic Risk Score to Personalize Prostate Cancer Screening, Applied to Population Data

BACKGROUND

A polygenic hazard score (PHS), the weighted sum of 54 SNP genotypes, was previously validated for association with clinically significant prostate cancer and for improved prostate cancer screening accuracy. Here, we assess the potential impact of PHS-informed screening.

METHODS

United Kingdom population incidence data (Cancer Research United Kingdom) and data from the Cluster Randomized Trial of PSA Testing for Prostate Cancer were combined to estimate age-specific clinically significant prostate cancer incidence (Gleason score ≥7, stage T3-T4, PSA ≥10, or nodal/distant metastases). Using HRs estimated from the ProtecT prostate cancer trial, age-specific incidence rates were calculated for various PHS risk percentiles. Risk-equivalent age, when someone with a given PHS percentile has prostate cancer risk equivalent to an average 50-year-old man (50-year-standard risk), was derived from PHS and incidence data. Positive predictive value (PPV) of PSA testing for clinically significant prostate cancer was calculated using PHS-adjusted age groups.

RESULTS

The expected age at diagnosis of clinically significant prostate cancer differs by 19 years between the 1st and 99th PHS percentiles: men with PHS in the 1st and 99th percentiles reach the 50-year-standard risk level at ages 60 and 41, respectively. PPV of PSA was higher for men with higher PHS-adjusted age.

CONCLUSIONS

PHS provides individualized estimates of risk-equivalent age for clinically significant prostate cancer. Screening initiation could be adjusted by a man's PHS.

IMPACT

Personalized genetic risk assessments could inform prostate cancer screening decisions.

A comprehensive analysis of methods for assessing polygenic burden on Alzheimer's disease pathology and risk beyond APOE

Genome-wide association studies have identified dozens of loci that alter the risk to develop Alzheimer's disease. However, with the exception of the APOE-ε4 allele, most variants bear only little individual effect and have, therefore, limited diagnostic and prognostic value. Polygenic risk scores aim to collate the disease risk distributed across the genome in a single score. Recent works have demonstrated that polygenic risk scores designed for Alzheimer's disease are predictive of clinical diagnosis, pathology confirmed diagnosis and changes in imaging biomarkers. Methodological innovations in polygenic risk modelling include the polygenic hazard score, which derives effect estimates for individual single nucleotide polymorphisms from survival analysis, and methods that account for linkage disequilibrium between genomic loci. In this work, using data from the Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging initiative, we compared different approaches to quantify polygenic disease burden for Alzheimer's disease and their association (beyond the APOE locus) with a broad range of Alzheimer's disease-related traits: cross-sectional CSF biomarker levels, cross-sectional cortical amyloid burden, clinical diagnosis, clinical progression, longitudinal loss of grey matter and longitudinal decline in cognitive function. We found that polygenic scores were associated beyond APOE with clinical diagnosis, CSF-tau levels and, to a minor degree, with progressive atrophy. However, for many other tested traits such as clinical disease progression, CSF amyloid, cognitive decline and cortical amyloid load, the additional effects of polygenic burden beyond APOE were of minor nature. Overall, polygenic risk scores and the polygenic hazard score performed equally and given the ease with which polygenic risk scores can be derived; they constitute the more practical choice in comparison with polygenic hazard scores. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that incomplete adjustment for the APOE locus, i.e. only adjusting for APOE-ε4 carrier status, can lead to overestimated effects of polygenic scores due to APOE-ε4 homozygous participants. Lastly, on many of the tested traits, the major driving factor remained the APOE locus, with the exception of quantitative CSF-tau and p-tau measures.

Progress in Polygenic Composite Scores in Alzheimer's and Other Complex Diseases

Advances in high-throughput genotyping and next-generation sequencing (NGS) coupled with larger sample sizes brings the realization of precision medicine closer than ever. Polygenic approaches incorporating the aggregate influence of multiple genetic variants can contribute to a better understanding of the genetic architecture of many complex diseases and facilitate patient stratification. This review addresses polygenic concepts, methodological developments, hypotheses, and key issues in study design. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been applied to many complex diseases and here we focus on Alzheimer's disease (AD) as a primary exemplar. This review was designed to serve as a starting point for investigators wishing to use PRSs in their research and those interested in enhancing clinical study designs through enrichment strategies.

Polygenic hazard score, amyloid deposition and Alzheimer's neurodegeneration

Mounting evidence indicates that the polygenic basis of late-onset Alzheimer's disease can be harnessed to identify individuals at greatest risk for cognitive decline. We have previously developed and validated a polygenic hazard score comprising of 31 single nucleotide polymorphisms for predicting Alzheimer's disease dementia age of onset. In this study, we examined whether polygenic hazard scores are associated with: (i) regional tracer uptake using amyloid PET; (ii) regional volume loss using longitudinal MRI; (iii) post-mortem regional amyloid-β protein and tau associated neurofibrillary tangles; and (iv) four common non-Alzheimer's pathologies. Even after accounting for APOE, we found a strong association between polygenic hazard scores and amyloid PET standard uptake volume ratio with the largest effects within frontal cortical regions in 980 older individuals across the disease spectrum, and longitudinal MRI volume loss within the entorhinal cortex in 607 older individuals across the disease spectrum. We also found that higher polygenic hazard scores were associated with greater rates of cognitive and clinical decline in 632 non-demented older individuals, even after controlling for APOE status, frontal amyloid PET and entorhinal cortex volume. In addition, the combined model that included polygenic hazard scores, frontal amyloid PET and entorhinal cortex volume resulted in a better fit compared to a model with only imaging markers. Neuropathologically, we found that polygenic hazard scores were associated with regional post-mortem amyloid load and neuronal neurofibrillary tangles, even after accounting for APOE, validating our imaging findings. Lastly, polygenic hazard scores were associated with Lewy body and cerebrovascular pathology. Beyond APOE, we show that in living subjects, polygenic hazard scores were associated with amyloid deposition and neurodegeneration in susceptible brain regions. Polygenic hazard scores may also be useful for the identification of individuals at the highest risk for developing multi-aetiological dementia.