Validation of competing-risks model in screening for pre-eclampsia in twin pregnancy by maternal factors

The Role of Chorionicity in Placenta-Related Disorders

INTRODUCTION

Twin pregnancy is associated with higher rates of maternal morbidities including gestational diabetes and hypertension. Dichorionic twins are believed to have greater placental mass. Our objective was to study the incidence of two placenta-related disorders: gestational diabetes and hypertension, in dichorionic versus monochorionic twin pregnancies.

METHODS

Patients' data of all consecutive twin pregnancies over a period of 12 years were collected from medical records. Data on chorionicity were retrieved from 1st trimester ultrasound reports. Maternal complications including gestational hypertension and diabetes were collected, and incidence was compared between dichorionic and monochorionic twin pregnancies. Records lacking chorionicity data and cases with pregestational diabetes were excluded.

RESULTS

A total of 960 twin pregnancies, 121 monochorionic and 839 dichorionic, were included. Average maternal age did not differ significantly between the groups. The median gestational age at delivery was 36.0 weeks in monochorionic and 36.7 in dichorionic twins. Primiparity (40.4% vs. 23.1%, p < 0.001) and the rate of infertility treatments (51.5% vs. 7.4%, p < 0.001) were both more common in the dichorionic group. The incidence of gestational hypertension disorders was 14% in monochorionic versus 11% in dichorionic twins (p = 0.36). Gestational diabetes was more common in dichorionic compared to monochorionic twins (9.4% and 2.5%, respectively); however, logistic multivariate analysis showed that gestational diabetes was highly correlated with maternal age (p < 0.001) and infertility treatments (p < 0.001) but not with chorionicity (p = 0.136).

CONCLUSION

Our results may imply that greater placental mass does not increase the risk for gestational hypertension and diabetes. This might support the role of additional multiple maternal factors associated with these complications.

The correlation between maternal serum sST2, IL-33 and NT-proBNP concentrations and occurrence of pre-eclampsia in twin pregnancies: A longitudinal study

The primary objective of this study was to determine the longitudinal profile of serum sST2 (soluble suppression of tumorigenicity 2), IL‐33 (interleukin‐33) and NT‐proBNP (N‐terminal pro‐brain natriuretic peptide) concentrations in twin pregnancies with pre‐eclampsia (PE) and those normotensive twins. The secondary objective was to test whether the change of serum sST2,IL‐33 and NT‐proBNP is related to PE in twin pregnancies. This is a longitudinal nested case–control study and all 156 dichorionic (DC) pregnancies were from a prospective cohort of twin pregnancies who received antenatal care and gave two live births at Peking University Third Hospital between October 2017 and September 2020. Four to five milliliters of peripheral blood of each pregnant woman were collected during the following three intervals: (1) 6–11⁺⁶ weeks; (2) 24–27⁺⁶ weeks; (3) 28–31⁺⁶ weeks. We found that sST2 and NT‐proBNP levels increased as pregnancy progressed in normotensive twin pregnancies and further increased in PE group, while no differences were found in IL‐33 levels throughout pregnancy. Then the correlation of biomarker levels with the occurrence of PE was assessed. Our results indicated that combining maternal serum sST2 and NT‐proBNP levels yielded the highest predictive value on the occurrence of PE significantly higher than the predictive value of any markers alone. Interestingly, the predictive value of second trimester (AUC = 0.876, 95%CI 0.824–0.928, LR−0.338, LR+7.67, p < 0.001)was higher than that of early‐third trimester (AUC = 0.832, 95%CI 0.769–0.896, LR−0.29, LR+3.845, p < 0.001). Serum sST2 and NT‐proBNP concentrations during second and early‐third trimester were associated with the occurrence of PE in twin pregnancies.

Screening for preeclampsia in twin pregnancies

Twin pregnancies are an important risk factor for preeclampsia, a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy that is associated with a significant risk of maternal and perinatal morbidity. Given the burden of preeclampsia, the identification of women at high risk in early pregnancy is essential to allow for preventive strategies and close monitoring. In singleton pregnancies, the risk factors for preeclampsia are well established, and a combined first-trimester prediction model has been shown to adequately predict preterm disease. Furthermore, intervention with low-dose aspirin at 150 mg/day in those identified as high-risk reduces the rate of preterm preeclampsia by 62%. In contrast, risk factors for preeclampsia in twin pregnancies are less established, the proposed screening models have shown poor performance with high false-positive rates, and the benefit of aspirin for the prevention of preeclampsia is not clearly demonstrated. In this review, we examine the literature assessing prediction and prevention of preeclampsia in twin pregnancies.

Prediction of twin pregnancy preeclampsia based on clinical risk factors, early pregnancy serum markers, and uterine artery pulsatility index

Objectives:

To investigate whether a combination of clinical risk factors, early pregnancy serum markers, and uterine artery pulsatility index (UTPI) can be used to predict twin preeclampsia (PE).

Methods:

This case control study included women with twin pregnancies who had undergone obstetrics treatments and gave birth at the Huzhou Maternity and Child Health Care Hospital from October 2018 to November 2020. Patients with PE comprised study group, and patients without PE comprised control group based on selection criteria and a 1:1 ratio. Statistical analysis was performed using clinical risk factors, early pregnancy serum markers, and UTPIs, and the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC. Sensitivity, and the specificity of different combinations of these variables were calculated to predict PE in women with twin pregnancy.

Results:

Logistic regression analysis revealed four independent predictors for the onset of PE during twin pregnancies: first delivery (OR, 7.51; P=0.045), conception method (OR, 7.11; P=0.036), β-HCG level (per SD OR, 2.73; P=0.026), and UTPI (OR, 0.17; P=0.043). First-delivery and IVF pregnancy methods both lead to a 7-fold increase in the PE risk during twin pregnancies. Every one sigma (standard deviation) increase in the β-HCG level led to a 2.73-fold increase in the PE risk. Every UTPI increment by 1.0 reduces the risk of PE by 83%. The prediction efficiencies were based on an AUC of 0.837, a sensitivity of 69%, and a specificity of 92% for the clinical risk factors; an AUC of 0.800, a sensitivity of 81%, and specificity of 78% for the β-HCG level, and an AUC of 0.814, a sensitivity of 88%, and a specificity of 65% for the UTPI. AUC was 0.928, sensitivity 85%, and a specificity 88% after applying the three types of indicators together for prediction.

Conclusions:

By combining early pregnancy serum markers (β-HCG), and UTPI, the predictive value for PE during twin pregnancy is improved together with its sensitivity and specificity.

lncRNA DANCR promotes the migration an invasion and of trophoblast cells through microRNA-214-5p in preeclampsia

Studies have shown that lncRNA DANCR is down-regulated in placental tissues of patients with preeclampsia (PE). The aim of this study was to explore the effect of lncRNA DANCR on trophoblast cells as well as its acting mechanism. We disrupted or overexpressed lncRNA DANCR in trophoblast cells HTR-8/SVneo and JEG-3 and detected the associated cellular functional changes by MTT, flow cytometry, Transwell experiment, and scratch experiment. The results showed that overexpression of lncRNA DANCR significantly increased the proliferation, invasion, migration, and EMT process of trophoblast cells. Interfering with lncRNA DANCR showed the opposite result. Further, the targeted interaction between lncRNA DANCR and miR-214-5p was confirmed by the dual-luciferase reporter gene assay. In addition, the expression of PI3K/AKT signaling pathway-related proteins was analyzed by Western blot. Overexpression of lncRNA DANCR can increase the phosphorylation of PI3K/AKT protein and activate this signaling pathway. In conclusion, the enforcing of lncRNA DANCR activates the activation of the PI3K/AKT pathway by down-regulating miR-214-5p, and promotes the migration and invasion of chorionic trophoblast cells. This provides a potential new target for PE therapy.

MicroRNA‑524‑5p regulates the proliferation and invasion of HTR‑8/SVneo trophoblasts by targeting NUMB in the Notch signaling pathway

Preeclampsia is a pregnancy disorder that is primarily associated with maternal and neonatal or fetal morbidity and mortality. The discovery of dysregulated microRNAs (miRs) and their roles in preeclampsia has provided new insight into the mechanisms involved in pregnancy‑related disorders. In the present study, quantitative PCR demonstrated that the expression levels of miR‑524‑5p were lower in patients with preeclampsia than those in normal pregnant women. Cell Counting Kit‑8 and Transwell assays indicated that overexpression of miR‑524‑5p promoted the proliferation and invasion of HTR‑8/SVneo cells, whereas inhibition of miR‑524‑5p suppressed HTR‑8/SVneo cell proliferation and invasion. Furthermore, NUMB endocytic adaptor protein (NUMB), a negative regulator of the Notch signaling pathway and a target gene of miR‑524‑5p, limited the effects of miR‑524‑5p on HTR‑8/SVneo cell invasion and migration. The present study demonstrated that miR‑524‑5p regulated the proliferation and invasion of HTR‑8/SVneo cells at least partly by targeting NUMB to regulate the Notch signaling pathway.

Prediction of pre-eclampsia in twin pregnancy by maternal factors and biomarkers at 11-13 weeks' gestation: data from EVENTS trial

OBJECTIVES

First, to validate a previously developed model for screening for pre-eclampsia (PE) by maternal characteristics and medical history in twin pregnancies; second, to compare the distributions of mean arterial pressure (MAP), uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI), serum placental growth factor (PlGF) and serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) in twin pregnancies that delivered with PE to those in singleton pregnancies and to develop new models based on these results; and, third, to examine the predictive performance of these models in screening for PE with delivery at < 32 and < 37 weeks' gestation.

METHODS

Two datasets of prospective non-intervention multicenter screening studies for PE in twin pregnancies at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation were used. The first dataset was from the EVENTS (Early vaginal progesterone for the preVention of spontaneous prEterm birth iN TwinS) trial and the second was from a previously reported study that examined the distributions of biomarkers in twin pregnancies. Maternal demographic characteristics and medical history from the EVENTS-trial dataset were used to assess the validity of risks from our previously developed model. The combined data from the first and second datasets were used to compare the distributional properties of log₁₀ multiples of the median (MoM) values of UtA-PI, MAP, PlGF and PAPP-A in twin pregnancies that delivered with PE to those in singleton pregnancies and develop new models based on these results. The competing-risks model was used to estimate the individual patient-specific risks of delivery with PE at < 32 and < 37 weeks' gestation. Screening performance was measured by detection rates (DR) and areas under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve.

RESULTS

The EVENTS-trial dataset comprised 1798 pregnancies, including 168 (9.3%) that developed PE. In the validation of the prior model based on maternal characteristics and medical history, calibration plots demonstrated very good agreement between the predicted risks and the observed incidence of PE (calibration slope and intercept for PE < 32 weeks were 0.827 and 0.009, respectively, and for PE < 37 weeks they were 0.942 and -0.207, respectively). In the combined data, there were 3938 pregnancies, including 339 (8.6%) that developed PE and 253 (6.4%) that delivered with PE at < 37 weeks' gestation. In twin pregnancies that delivered with PE, MAP, UtA-PI and PlGF were, at earlier gestational ages, more discriminative than in singleton pregnancies and at later gestational ages they were less so. For PAPP-A, there was little difference between PE and unaffected pregnancies. The best performance of screening for PE was achieved by a combination of maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI and PlGF. In screening by maternal factors alone, the DR, at a 10% false-positive rate, was 30.6% for delivery with PE at < 32 weeks' gestation and this increased to 86.4% when screening by the combined test; the respective values for PE < 37 weeks were 24.9% and 41.1%.

CONCLUSIONS

In the assessment of risk for PE in twin pregnancy, we can use the same prior model based on maternal characteristics and medical history as reported previously, but in the calculation of posterior risks it is necessary to use the new distributions of log₁₀ MoM values of UtA-PI, MAP and PlGF according to gestational age at delivery with PE. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

PLACENTAL HEMODYNAMIC ASSESSMENT IN WOMEN WITH SEVERE PREECLAMPSIA IN SECOND- AND THIRD-TRIMESTER PREGNANCY BY 3D POWER QUANTITATIVE DOPPLER ULTRASOUND

Objective: The present study analyzed the fetal–placental hemodynamic parameters in women with severe preeclampsia in second- and third-trimester pregnancy with a view to developing effective predictive indicators for preeclampsia and providing support for the prenatal clinical treatment of preeclampsia. Materials and Methods: From January 2015 to January 2019, 160 pregnant women diagnosed with severe preeclampsia at Xiangyang First People’s Hospital were recruited as the study group. The diagnostic criteria for preeclampsia were in accordance with the guidelines of the International Society for the Study of Hypertension in Pregnancy (ISSHP). A sample of 160 healthy pregnant women with normal blood pressure were selected as the control group. The GE Voluson E8 and E10 four-dimensional (4D) ultrasonic diagnostic instruments and the three-dimensional (3D) power Doppler in angio-quantitative mode were used to measure the hemodynamic parameters of the placenta, left uterine artery (LUA), right uterine artery (RUA), middle cerebral artery (MCA), umbilical artery (UA), and ductus venosus (DV) in the two groups. The above parameters were analyzed statistically using SPSS 22.0. Results: The systolic/diastolic velocity ratio (S/D), pulsatility index (PI), and resistance index (RI) of the MCA in the study group were lower than those of normal subjects of the same gestational age (P < 0.05). These parameters in the UA were higher in the study group than those in normal subjects (P < 0.05). The ratios between the peak ventricular systolic velocity and the peak atrial systolic velocity (S/A), pulsatility index for the vein (PIV), pre-load index (PLI), and peak velocity index for the vein (PVIV) in the DV were significantly different between the study and normal groups (P < 0.05). The placental vascularization index (VI), flow index (FI), and vascularization flow index (VFI) were lower in the study group than those in normal subjects of the same gestational age (P < 0.05). There were good correlations between VI, VFI and RUA, PI, with correlation coefficients of −0.697 and −0.702, respectively. FI was the indicator that had the highest diagnostic efficacy for severe preeclampsia. The predictive sensitivity of the FI with a cut-off value of 34.92 was 96.3%, and the corresponding specificity was 86.9%. Conclusions: Placental FI had the highest predictive efficacy for severe preeclampsia and provides a reliable quantitative indicator and data support for preeclampsia management. 3D power quantitative Doppler ultrasound provides a novel avenue for the study of severe preeclampsia.

The competing risk approach for prediction of preeclampsia

The established method of the assessment of the risk for development of preeclampsia is to identify risk factors from maternal demographic characteristics and medical history; in the presence of such factors, the patient is classified as high risk and in their absence as low risk. Although this approach is simple to perform, it has poor performance of the prediction of preeclampsia and does not provide patient-specific risks. This review describes a new approach that allows the estimation of patient-specific risks of delivery with preeclampsia before any specified gestational age by maternal demographic characteristics and medical history with biomarkers obtained either individually or in combination at any stage in pregnancy. In the competing risks approach, every woman has a personalized distribution of gestational age at delivery with preeclampsia; whether she experiences preeclampsia or not before a specified gestational age depends on competition between delivery before or after the development of preeclampsia. The personalized distribution comes from the application of Bayes theorem to combine a previous distribution, which is determined from maternal factors, with likelihoods from biomarkers. As new data become available, what were posterior probabilities take the role as the previous probability, and data collected at different stages are combined by repeating the application of Bayes theorem to form a new posterior at each stage, which allows for dynamic prediction of preeclampsia. The competing risk model can be used for precision medicine and risk stratification at different stages of pregnancy. In the first trimester, the model has been applied to identify a high-risk group that would benefit from preventative therapeutic interventions. In the second trimester, the model has been used to stratify the population into high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups in need of different intensities of subsequent monitoring, thereby minimizing unexpected adverse perinatal events. The competing risks model can also be used in surveillance of women presenting to specialist clinics with signs or symptoms of hypertensive disorders; combination of maternal factors and biomarkers provide patient-specific risks for preeclampsia that lead to personalized stratification of the intensity of monitoring, with risks updated on each visit on the basis of biomarker measurements.

Role of DRAM1 in mitophagy contributes to preeclampsia regulation in mice

Preeclampsia (PE) is a complication during pregnancy that is diagnosed by a new onset of hypertension and proteinuria. Although the pathogenesis of PE is not fully understood, a growing body of evidence indicates that oxidative stress and mitochondrial dysfunction might contribute to the progression of PE. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to determine the role of mitophagy in mitochondrial dysfunction and oxidative stress in PE, and to evaluate the role of DNA damage‑regulated autophagy modulator 1 (DRAM1) in the development of PE. First, a mouse model of PE induced by hypoxia‑inducible factor 1α was established, and high levels of oxidative stress, apoptosis and mitochondrial dysfunction were found in the placentas of PE mice. Additionally, the placentas of PE mice exhibited decreased mitophagy and significantly decreased DRAM1 expression. To further explore the role of DRAM1 in mitophagy, DRAM1 was overexpressed in the placental tissues of PE mice, and this overexpression effectively improved the symptoms of PE mice and significantly reduced blood lipid and urine protein levels. DRAM1 overexpression also improved mitochondrial function and reduced oxidative stress in the placentas of PE mice. In addition, the overexpression of DRAM1 improved mitochondrial fusion and fission, and enhanced mitophagy. Altogether, these results indicated a key role for DRAM1 in mitophagy that contributed to the regulation of PE. To the best of the authors' knowledge, the present study provided the first evidence of a role for DRAM1 in PE, and offered novel insight into the pathophysiological mechanisms of PE.

Screening for preeclampsia in low-risk twin pregnancies at early gestation

INTRODUCTION

Preeclampsia affects about 10% of twin pregnancies and significantly increases the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. However, screening models for preeclampsia in twin pregnancies remain elusive. The present study aimed to evaluate the performance of a multi-marker first trimester preeclampsia screening model in low-risk twin pregnancies.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Between 2014 and 2017, we prospectively assessed first trimester biomarkers for preeclampsia in a 'low-risk' twin pregnancy cohort at a single center. Multiple logistic regression was used to determine significant predictors for early preeclampsia (occurring prior to 34 weeks) and late preeclampsia (occurring after 34 weeks). The performance of the screening models fitted using the significant predictors was calculated using receiver operating characteristics curves, and internal validation was performed using bootstrapping.

RESULTS

A total of 769 twin pregnancies were included in the study. Early preeclampsia and late preeclampsia developed in 27 (3.5%) and 59 (7.7%) cases, respectively. Logistic regression analyses showed that maternal age, body mass index, mean artery pressure and placental growth factor were significant predictors for early preeclampsia. Maternal age, body mass index, mean artery pressure and pregnancy-associated plasma protein A were significant for late preeclampsia. Uterine artery pulsatility index was not predictive of either early or late preeclampsia. For the fitted screening model of early and late preeclampsia, the areas under receiver operating characteristics curves were 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76-0.88) and 0.66 (95% CI 0.59-0.73), which were expected to decrease to 0.77 and 0.60, respectively, based on bootstrapping; the positive predictive values were 10.2% and 12.5%; and the estimated detection rates were 40.7% and 22.0%, respectively, at a false-positive rate of 10%.

CONCLUSIONS

A multi-marker screening model for preeclampsia in low-risk twin pregnancies, using a modified version of Fetal Medicine Foundation predictors in singletons, does not perform well. Uterine artery pulsatility index is of little value in screening for preeclampsia in low-risk twin pregnancies.

Outcome of twin pregnancy with two live fetuses at 11-13 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVES

To report and compare pregnancy outcome in dichorionic (DC), monochorionic diamniotic (MCDA) and monochorionic monoamniotic (MCMA) twin pregnancies with two live fetuses at 11-13 weeks' gestation and to examine the impact of endoscopic laser surgery for severe twin-twin transfusion syndrome (TTTS) and/or selective fetal growth restriction (sFGR) on the outcome of MCDA twins.

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data on twin pregnancies undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 11-13 weeks' gestation between 2002 and 2019. In pregnancies with no major abnormalities, we compared overall survival, fetal loss at < 24 weeks' gestation, perinatal death at ≥ 24 weeks, delivery at < 37 and < 32 weeks, and birth weight < 5^th percentile between DC, MCDA and MCMA twins.

RESULTS

The study population of 6225 twin pregnancies with two live fetuses at 11-13 weeks' gestation with no major abnormalities included 4896 (78.7%) DC, 1274 (20.5%) MCDA and 55 (0.9%) MCMA twins. In DC twins, the rate of loss at < 24 weeks' gestation in all fetuses was 2.3%; this rate was higher in MCDA twins (7.7%; relative risk (RR), 3.258; 95% CI, 2.706-3.923) and more so in MCMA twins (21.8%; RR, 9.289; 95% CI, 6.377-13.530). In DC twins, the rate of perinatal death at ≥ 24 weeks in all twins that were alive at 24 weeks was 1.0%; this rate was higher in MCDA twins (2.5%; RR, 2.456; 95% CI, 1.779-3.389) and more so in MCMA twins (9.3%; RR, 9.130; 95% CI, 4.584-18.184). In DC twins, the rate of preterm birth at < 37 weeks' gestation in pregnancies with at least one liveborn twin was 48.6%; this rate was higher in MCDA twins (88.5%; RR, 1.824; 95% CI, 1.760-1.890) and more so in MCMA twins (100%; RR, 2.060; 95% CI, 2.000-2.121). In DC twins, the rate of preterm birth at < 32 weeks was 7.4%; this rate was higher in MCDA twins (14.2%; RR, 1.920; 95% CI, 1.616-2.281) and more so in MCMA twins (26.8%; RR, 3.637; 95% CI, 2.172-6.089). In DC twin pregnancies with at least one liveborn twin, the rate of a small-for-gestational-age neonate among all liveborn twins was 31.2% and in MCDA twins this rate was higher (37.8%; RR, 1.209; 95% CI, 1.138-1.284); in MCMA twins, the rate was not significantly different (33.3%; RR, 1.067; 95% CI, 0.783-1.455). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a significant difference in survival in MCDA and MCMA twins, compared to DC twins, for both the interval of 12 to < 24 weeks' gestation (log-rank test, P < 0.0001 for both) and that of ≥ 24 to 38 weeks (log-rank test, P < 0.0001 for both). Endoscopic laser ablation of intertwin communicating placental vessels was carried out in 127 (10.0%) MCDA twin pregnancies for TTTS and/or sFGR and, in 111 of these, surgery was performed at < 24 weeks; both fetuses survived in 62 (55.9%) cases, one fetus survived in 25 (22.5%) cases and there were no survivors in 24 (21.6%) cases. On the extreme assumption that, had laser surgery not been carried out in these cases, all fetuses would have died, the total fetal loss rate at < 24 weeks' gestation in MCDA twins would have been 13.5%.

CONCLUSIONS

The rates of fetal loss at < 24 weeks' gestation, perinatal death at ≥ 24 weeks and preterm birth are higher in MCDA and more so in MCMA twins than in DC twins. In MCDA twins, the rate of fetal loss may have been reduced by endoscopic laser surgery in those that developed early TTTS and/or sFGR. These data would be useful in counseling parents as to the likely outcome of their pregnancy and in defining strategies for surveillance and interventions in the management of the different types of twin pregnancy. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impact of new definitions of pre-eclampsia on incidence and performance of first-trimester screening

OBJECTIVE

The traditional definition of pre-eclampsia (PE) is based on the development of hypertension and proteinuria. This has been revised recently to include cases without proteinuria but with evidence of renal, hepatic or hematological dysfunction. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of new definitions of PE on, first, the incidence and severity of the disease and, second, the performance of the competing-risks model for first-trimester assessment of risk for PE.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study of 66 964 singleton pregnancies that were classified as having PE, gestational hypertension (GH) or no PE or GH, according to the traditional criteria of the International Society for the Study of Hypertension in Pregnancy (ISSHP-old), which defines PE as the presence of both hypertension and proteinuria. We reviewed the records of pregnancies with GH, and those cases with high creatinine or liver enzymes or low platelet count were reclassified as having PE, according to the new criteria of ISSHP (ISSHP-new) and the new criteria of the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG). The groups of PE according to the traditional and new criteria were compared for, first, gestational age at delivery, birth-weight percentile and incidence of a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate with birth weight < 10^th percentile and perinatal death, and, second, the predictive performance for preterm PE of the competing-risks model based on the combination of maternal risk factors, uterine artery pulsatility index, mean arterial pressure and serum placental growth factor at 11-13 weeks' gestation (triple test).

RESULTS

According to ISSHP-old, 1870 (2.8%) cases had PE, 2182 (3.3%) had GH and 62 912 (94.0%) had no PE or GH. The incidence of PE according to ACOG was 3.0% (2029/66 964) and ISSHP-new was 3.4% (2301/66 964). Median gestational age at delivery in the extra cases of PE according to ACOG (difference, 1.3 weeks; 95% CI, 0.71-1.71 weeks) and in the extra cases of PE according to ISSHP-new (difference, 1.5 weeks; 95% CI, 1.29-1.71 weeks) was higher than in cases with PE according to ISSHP-old (38.4 weeks). The incidence of a SGA neonate in the extra cases of PE according to ACOG (relative risk, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.42-0.79) and in the extra cases of PE according to ISSHP-new (relative risk, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.42-0.65) was lower than in the cases of PE according to ISSHP-old (33.64%). In first-trimester screening for preterm PE by the triple test, the detection rate, at a 10% false-positive rate, was 75.9% (95% CI, 70.8-80.6%) for ISSHP-old, 74.3% (95% CI, 69.2-79.0%) for ACOG and 74.0% (95% CI, 68.9-78.6%) for ISSHP-new.

CONCLUSIONS

The new definitions of PE resulted in, first, an increase in pregnancies classified as having PE but the additional cases had milder disease, and, second, a non-significant decrease in the performance of first-trimester screening for PE. © 2019 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Revised competing-risks model in screening for pre-eclampsia in twin pregnancy by maternal characteristics and medical history

BACKGROUND

We have proposed previously that the competing-risks model for prediction of pre-eclampsia (PE) based on maternal characteristics and medical history (prior model), developed in singleton pregnancies, can be extended to risk assessment for twins; in dichorionic (DC) and monochorionic (MC) twin pregnancies with the same characteristics as in singleton pregnancies, the distribution of gestational age at delivery with PE was shifted to the left by 8 and 10 weeks, respectively. However, in a subsequent validation study, we found that, in both the training and validation datasets, the observed incidence of PE was lower than the predicted one and such overestimation of risk was particularly marked for early PE.

OBJECTIVES

First, to develop a new extension of the competing-risks prior model in screening for PE by maternal demographic characteristics and medical history in twin pregnancies in a training dataset. Second, to examine the predictive performance of this model in screening for PE with delivery < 34 weeks (early PE), < 37 weeks (preterm PE) and at any gestational age (all PE) in twins in a validation dataset. Third, to demonstrate the application of screening in a mixed population of singleton and twin pregnancies.

METHODS

The data for this study were obtained from two prospective non-intervention multicenter screening studies for PE in twin pregnancies at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation. The training and validation datasets consisted of 2219 and 2999 women, respectively. We used the training dataset to fit a model in which the effect of twins on shifting the distribution of gestational age at delivery with PE in singletons to the left should not be the same for all gestational ages but the shift should depend on the singleton prior mean; the effect increases with increasing prior mean. We examined the predictive performance of the model in the training and validation datasets using the area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC) and calibration plots. Data on 16 747 singleton pregnancies obtained from the Screening ProgRamme for prE-Eclampsia (SPREE) study were included to examine the performance of screening in a mixed population of singleton and twin pregnancies.

RESULTS

Calibration plots and calibration intercept and slope demonstrate superior predictive performance of the new model in the validation dataset. Although the AUC for twin pregnancies is lower than in singleton pregnancies, performance of screening in a mixed population of singleton and twin pregnancies is superior to that in singletons (AUC of 0.790 in a mixed population comprising 2% twins and 98% singletons compared to 0.775 in singletons). For the risk cut-offs likely to be used in practice, all twin pregnancies screen positive using maternal characteristics and medical history.

CONCLUSIONS

A new competing-risks model in screening for PE by maternal risk factors in twin pregnancy has been developed and, using this model, the predicted risks for early PE, preterm PE and all PE are in relatively good agreement with the observed incidence of the disease. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.