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Patón M, Acuña JM, Rodríguez J. Evaluation of vaccine rollout strategies for emerging infectious diseases: A model-based approach including protection attitudes. Infect Dis Model 2023; 8:1032-1049. [PMID: 37674584 PMCID: PMC10477745 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.07.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2023] [Revised: 07/28/2023] [Accepted: 07/30/2023] [Indexed: 09/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Vaccine allocation strategies become crucial during vaccine shortages, especially in the face of potential outbreaks of new infectious diseases, as witnessed during the COVID-19 pandemic. To address this, a specialized compartmental model is created, which simulates an emerging infectious disease similar to COVID-19. This model divides the population into different age groups and is used to compare various vaccine prioritisation approaches, aiming to minimize the total number of fatalities. The model is an improvement upon previous ones as it incorporates essential behavioural factors and is adapted to account for the protective effects of vaccination against both disease infection and transmission. It takes into account human behaviors such as mask-wearing and social distancing by utilizing specific parameters related to self-protection, awareness levels, and the frequency of daily person-to-person interactions within each age group. Furthermore, a novel method for dynamic vaccine prioritisation was introduced in this study. This approach is model-independent and relies on the dynamic R number. It is the first time such a method has been developed, offering a decision-making approach that is not tied to any specific model. This innovation provides a flexible and adaptable strategy for determining vaccine priorities based on real-time data and the current state of the outbreak. Our findings reveal crucial insights into vaccine allocation strategies. When the daily rollout rates are fast (0.75% or higher) and children are eligible for vaccination, prioritising groups with high daily person-to-person interactions can lead to substantial reductions in total fatalities (up to approximately 40% lower). On the other hand, if rollout rates are slower and overall vaccination coverage is high, focusing on vaccinating elders emerges as the most effective strategy, resulting in up to approximately 10% fewer fatalities. However, the scenario changes significantly when children are not eligible for vaccination, as they constitute a highly interactive population group. In this case, the differences between priority strategies become smaller. With fast daily rollout rates, prioritisation based on interactions achieves only a 7% reduction in total fatalities, while a slower rollout with vaccination of elders first leads to an approximately 11% reduction in fatalities compared to the scenario where children are eligible for vaccination. The impact of behavioural parameters is equally critical. When the self-protection levels exercised by the population are low, it significantly affects the optimal vaccine prioritisation strategy to be followed, making it essential to consider behavioural factors in decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mauricio Patón
- Department of Chemical Engineering, College of Engineering, Khalifa University, SAN Campus PO Box 127788, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Juan M. Acuña
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, College of Medicine. Khalifa University, PO Box 127788, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Jorge Rodríguez
- Department of Chemical Engineering, College of Engineering, Khalifa University, SAN Campus PO Box 127788, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
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Jitpeera C, Wongsanuphat S, Thammawijaya P, Sonthichai C, Iamsirithaworn S, McNabb SJN. Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination Rates and Public Measures on Case Rates at the Provincial Level, Thailand, 2021: Spatial Panel Model Analyses. Trop Med Infect Dis 2023; 8:311. [PMID: 37368729 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed8060311] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2023] [Revised: 06/01/2023] [Accepted: 06/02/2023] [Indexed: 06/29/2023] Open
Abstract
The coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) was a pandemic that caused high morbidity and mortality worldwide. The COVID-19 vaccine was expected to be a game-changer for the pandemic. This study aimed to describe the characteristics of COVID-19 cases and vaccination in Thailand during 2021. An association between vaccination and case rates was estimated with potential confounders at ecological levels (color zones, curfews set by provincial authorities, tourism, and migrant movements) considering time lags at two, four, six, and eight weeks after vaccination. A spatial panel model for bivariate data was used to explore the relationship between case rates and each variable and included only a two-week lag after vaccination for each variable in the multivariate analyses. In 2021, Thailand had 1,965,023 cumulative cases and 45,788,315 total administered first vaccination doses (63.60%). High cases and vaccination rates were found among 31-45-year-olds. Vaccination rates had a slightly positive association with case rates due to the allocation of hot-spot pandemic areas in the early period. The proportion of migrants and color zones measured had positive associations with case rates at the provincial level. The proportion of tourists had a negative association. Vaccinations should be provided to migrants, and collaboration between tourism and public health should prepare for the new era of tourism.
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Affiliation(s)
- Charuttaporn Jitpeera
- Division of Epidemiology, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi 11000, Thailand
| | - Suphanat Wongsanuphat
- Division of Epidemiology, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi 11000, Thailand
| | - Panithee Thammawijaya
- Division of Epidemiology, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi 11000, Thailand
| | - Chaninan Sonthichai
- Vaccine Preventable Diseases Unit, Division of Communicable Diseases, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi 11000, Thailand
| | - Sopon Iamsirithaworn
- Deputy Director General of the Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi 11000, Thailand
| | - Scott J N McNabb
- Hubert Department of Global Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30329, USA
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Zhang H, Shen L, Sun M, Zhao C, Li Q, Yang Z, Liu J, Liu K, Xiao B. Spatiotemporal impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 on the incidence of infectious diarrhea in Xi'an, China. Front Public Health 2022; 10:1011592. [PMID: 36518571 PMCID: PMC9742410 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1011592] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/04/2022] [Accepted: 11/08/2022] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 may prevent the spread of other infectious diseases. Our purpose was to assess the effects of NPIs against COVID-19 on infectious diarrhea in Xi'an, China. Methods Based on the surveillance data of infectious diarrhea, and the different periods of emergence responses for COVID-19 in Xi'an from 2011 to 2021, we applied Bayesian structural time series model and interrupted time series model to evaluate the effects of NPIs against COVID-19 on the epidemiological characteristics and the causative pathogens of infectious diarrhea. Findings A total of 102,051 cases of infectious diarrhea were reported in Xi'an from 2011 to 2021. The Bayesian structural time series model results demonstrated that the cases of infectious diarrhea during the emergency response period was 40.38% lower than predicted, corresponding to 3,211 fewer cases, during the COVID-19 epidemic period of 2020-2021. The reduction exhibited significant variations in the demography, temporal and geographical distribution. The decline in incidence was especially evident in children under 5-years-old, with decreases of 34.09% in 2020 and 33.99% in 2021, relative to the 2017-2019 average. Meanwhile, the incidence decreased more significantly in industrial areas. Interpretation NPIs against COVID-19 were associated with short- and long-term reductions in the incidence of infectious diarrhea, and this effect exhibited significant variations in epidemiological characteristics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hui Zhang
- Department of Prevention of Infectious Diseases, Xi'an Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Li Shen
- School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Minghao Sun
- School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Chenxi Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, China
| | - Qian Li
- Department of Prevention of Infectious Diseases, Xi'an Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Zurong Yang
- Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, China
| | - Jifeng Liu
- Department of Prevention of Infectious Diseases, Xi'an Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Kun Liu
- Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, China,Kun Liu
| | - Bo Xiao
- Department of Plastic Surgery, Xijing Hospital, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, China,*Correspondence: Bo Xiao
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Schneitler S, Gülker J, Alhussein F, Bub F, Halfmann A, Klein L, Roth S, Jung P, Becker SL. Experiences with pre-travel diagnostic PCR testing for SARS-CoV-2: challenges and opportunities. J Travel Med 2021; 28:6330025. [PMID: 34323275 DOI: 10.1093/jtm/taab116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2021] [Revised: 07/20/2021] [Accepted: 07/23/2021] [Indexed: 01/19/2023]
Abstract
This study explores challenges and opportunities arising from pre-travel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 diagnostics for the conduct of travel medicine clinics. We found that such testing might offer huge opportunities to reach individuals who would otherwise not present to travel medicine clinics, such as individuals visiting friends and relatives in malaria-endemic countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sophie Schneitler
- Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene, Saarland University, Kirrberger Straße, Building 43, 66421 Homburg, Germany.,Institute of Pneumology at the University of Cologne, Bethanien Hospital, Clinic for Pneumology and Allergology, Centre of Sleep Medicine and Respiratory Care, Aufderhöher Straße 169, 42699 Solingen, Germany
| | - Jana Gülker
- Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene, Saarland University, Kirrberger Straße, Building 43, 66421 Homburg, Germany
| | - Farah Alhussein
- Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene, Saarland University, Kirrberger Straße, Building 43, 66421 Homburg, Germany
| | - Florian Bub
- Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene, Saarland University, Kirrberger Straße, Building 43, 66421 Homburg, Germany
| | - Alexander Halfmann
- Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene, Saarland University, Kirrberger Straße, Building 43, 66421 Homburg, Germany
| | - Lisa Klein
- Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene, Saarland University, Kirrberger Straße, Building 43, 66421 Homburg, Germany
| | - Sophie Roth
- Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene, Saarland University, Kirrberger Straße, Building 43, 66421 Homburg, Germany
| | - Philipp Jung
- Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene, Saarland University, Kirrberger Straße, Building 43, 66421 Homburg, Germany
| | - Sören L Becker
- Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene, Saarland University, Kirrberger Straße, Building 43, 66421 Homburg, Germany.,Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, P.O. Box, CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland.,University of Basel, P.O. Box, CH-4003 Basel, Switzerland
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