Early prognosis of epilepsy. Effects of treatment in the first follow-up year

Response to Early AED Therapy and Its Prognostic Implications

Determining the prognosis of patients when they first present with epilepsy is a difficult task. Several clinical studies have shed light on this very important topic. Potential predictors of the refractory state, including seizure etiology, duration of epilepsy before treatment, and epilepsy type, have not been successful indicators of long-term outcome. One predictor of the refractory state appears to be early response to AED therapy. Inadequate seizure control after initial treatment is a poor prognostic sign. Recent research into genetic causes of the refractory state has included investigation of the multiple drug resistance gene, and polymorphisms at drug targets. More work is needed to determine the causes and predictors of drug resistance.

Response to Early AED Therapy and Its Prognostic Implications

Determining the prognosis of patients when they first present with epilepsy is a difficult task. Several clinical studies have shed light on this very important topic. Potential predictors of the refractory state, including seizure etiology, duration of epilepsy before treatment, and epilepsy type, have not been successful indicators of long-term outcome. One predictor of the refractory state appears to be early response to AED therapy. Inadequate seizure control after initial treatment is a poor prognostic sign. Recent research into genetic causes of the refractory state has included investigation of the multiple drug resistance gene, and polymorphisms at drug targets. More work is needed to determine the causes and predictors of drug resistance.

Prognosis of epilepsy in newly referred patients: a multicenter prospective study of the effects of monotherapy on the long-term course of epilepsy. Collaborative Group for the Study of Epilepsy

A cohort of 280 previously untreated epilepsy subjects (159 men and 121 women aged 2-81 years) recruited in 14 Italian centers were treated with antiepileptic drug (AED) monotherapy and followed for a median period of 48 months to investigate the rates of seizure remission (i.e., complete control), in general and with reference to various prognostic factors. The cumulative probability of achieving 1-year remission was 62% by 1 year after onset of treatment, 81% by 2 years, 92% by 3 years, and 98% by 5 years. The corresponding figures for 2- and 3-year remission at 5 years were 92 and 78%, respectively. Sixty-two patients (22.1%) had no remission period with monotherapy. Remission rates were significantly lower among patients with two or more seizure types and were inversely correlated to the number of seizures before treatment. The rate of seizure relapses during the first year of follow-up appear to correlate to the risk of developing refractory epilepsy (i.e., with no remission).

Prognosis of epilepsy in newly referred patients: a multicenter prospective study. Collaborative Group for the Study of Epilepsy

A multicenter prospective study was initiated at the time of first antiepileptic treatment for afebrile seizures with 283 unselected patients in Italy. Each patient started with monotherapy at standard daily doses. Data were collected at admission, at scheduled 6-month exams, and at unscheduled exams and included age, sex, general profile of the disease, and treatment. Prognosis of epilepsy was evaluated by actuarial methods using first seizure relapse after onset of treatment to indicate unfavorable prognosis. In addition, a maximum interval of complete seizure control was calculated and related to length of follow-up in order to grade the severity of the disease (defined as mild, moderate, or severe). The average length of follow-up was 21.6 months (range 2-40). Seizure relapse occurred in 52% of cases during follow-up (36% by 3 months, 43% by 6 months, and 49% by 12 months). A larger number of seizures before therapy and the presence of combined seizure patterns were the variables most commonly associated with relapse. In general, epilepsy was mild in 65% of the cases, moderate in 28%, and severe in 7%. The earlier the first relapse the higher the risk of developing more severe disease. A larger number of seizures before treatment, combined seizure types, earlier age at onset, and prolonged disease duration (1 month to 1 year) seemed to be more frequently associated with the development of moderate-to-severe epilepsy.