Feeding ecology of wolvesCanis lupus returning to Germany

Applying XGBoost and SHAP to Open Source Data to Identify Key Drivers and Predict Likelihood of Wolf Pair Presence

Wolves have returned to Germany since 2000. Numbers have grown to 209 territorial pairs in 2021. XGBoost machine learning, combined with SHAP analysis is applied to predict German wolf pair presence in 2022 for 10 × 10 km grid cells. Model input consisted of 38 variables from open sources, covering the period 2000 to 2021. The XGBoost model predicted well, with 0.91 as the AUC. SHAP analysis ranked the variables: distance to the closest neighboring wolf pair was the main driver for a grid cell to become occupied by a wolf pair. The clustering tendency of related wolves seems to be an important explanatory factor here. Second was the percentage of wooded area. The next eight variables related to wolf presence in the preceding year, except at fifth, eighth and tenth position in the total order: human density (square root) in the grid, percentage arable land and road density respectively. Other variables including the occurrence of wild prey were the weakest predictors. The SHAP analysis also provided crucial added value in identifying a variable that had threshold values where its contribution to the prediction changed from positive to negative or vice versa. For instance, low density of people increased the probability of wolf pair presence, whereas a high density decreased this probability. Cumulative lift techniques showed that the model performed almost four times better than random prediction. The combination of XGBoost, SHAP and cumulative lift techniques is new in wolf management and conservation, allowing for the focusing of educational and financial resources.

Wild Ungulates Constitute the Basis of the Diet of the Iberian Wolf in a Recently Recolonized Area: Wild Boar and Roe Deer as Key Species for Its Conservation

The Iberian wolf (Canis lupus signatus) is recolonizing historical distribution areas after decades of absence. As in other human-dominated landscapes, finding a balance to protect this species by favoring recolonization and mitigating human-wildlife conflicts is a challenge. Since wolves are often generalist opportunistic predators, we studied their diet composition in central Spain to evaluate the consumption of domestic ungulates and provide reliable data that could help local authorities to deal with the current wolf-cattle ranchers conflict and coexistence. Diet composition (% prey occurrence, % prey ingested biomass) was analyzed through the identification of prey hairs present in 671 scats collected between 2017 and 2021. The wolves fed more on wild ungulates (82% occurrence) than domestic ones (18%). Wild boar (Sus scrofa, 44% occurrence) and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus, 35%) were the most consumed prey. The wolves positively selected these two species. The wolves' diets varied between seasons, years, and forest regions, but a diet based on wild ungulates predominated over domestic ones. Food niche breadth showed variations depending on seasons and years. Preserving the availability and diversity of wild ungulates may favor reducing livestock attacks and would be an achievable goal that would help to conserve this species and reduce conservation conflicts.

What drives wolf preference towards wild ungulates? Insights from a multi-prey system in the Slovak Carpathians

The wolf is a generalist-opportunistic predator that displays diverse and remarkably adaptable feeding strategies across its range with local adaptations to certain prey species depending on their availability and vulnerability. The multi-prey system of the Slovak Carpathians supports important portion of the European wolf population; however, it has been markedly understudied. We evaluated winter diet composition and prey selection of Slovak wolves based on 321 scat samples collected between September–April within four different study areas during 2015–2017. The winter diet of wolves in the Slovak Carpathians was characterized by a 98% occurrence of wild large-sized and medium-sized ungulates with red deer occurring in wolf scats most often, consistent with their highest density among other wild ungulates. However, by comparing the consumption with availability of wild prey, we found that wolves in fact selected for wild boar especially in areas with higher altitudinal range, while selected for red deer in areas with low altitudinal range where this prey species was more spatially predictable. Although wolves showed the potential to switch between red deer and wild boar when their density increases, we found that this variation can be rather linked to changing prey vulnerability, which is dependent on particular environmental conditions at local scale such as topography and snow accumulation. The present study provides valuable insights into the winter foraging ecology of Slovak wolves in a multi-prey system of the Carpathians and allows for practical implications in the management of the rapidly increasing populations of wild ungulates across Europe.

A Standardized Method for Experimental Human Approach Trials on Wild Wolves

As wolves recolonize areas of Europe ranging from moderate to high anthropogenic impact, fear of wolves is a recurring source of conflict. Shared tools for evaluating wolf responses to humans, and comparing such responses across their range, can be valuable. Experiments in which humans approach wild wolves can increase our understanding of how wolves respond to humans, facilitating human-wolf coexistence. We have developed the first standardized protocol for evaluating wolf responses to approaching humans using high-resolution GPS data, and tested it on wild wolves. We present a field protocol for experimentally approaching GPS-collared wolves, a descriptive comparison of two statistical methods for detecting a measurable flight response, a tutorial for identifying wolf flight initiation and resettling positions, and an evaluation of the method when reducing GPS positioning frequency. The field protocol, a data collection form, and the tutorial with R code for extracting flight parameters are provided. This protocol will facilitate studies of wolf responses to approaching humans, applicable at a local, national, and international level. Data compiled in a standardized way from multiple study areas can be used to quantify the variation in wolf responses to humans within and between populations, and in relation to predictors such as social status, landscape factors, or human population density, and to establish a baseline distribution of wolf response patterns given a number of known predictors. The variation in wolf responses can be used to assess the degree to which results can be generalized to areas where GPS studies are not feasible, e.g., for predicting the range of likely wolf behaviors, assessing the likelihood of wolf-human encounters, and complementing existing tools for evaluating reports of bold wolves. Showing how wolves respond to human encounters should help demystify the behavior of wild wolves toward humans in their shared habitat.

Large-Scale Sheep Losses to Wolves (Canis lupus) in Germany Are Related to the Expansion of the Wolf Population but Not to Increasing Wolf Numbers

Recovery of predator populations triggers conflicts due to livestock depredation losses, particularly in Germany where the wolf (Canis lupus) population grows exponentially and livestock (especially sheep) losses raise public concerns and motivate the authorities to control wolf numbers. Yet, the effects of wolf numbers and alternative factors, such as abundance of prey and livestock, on livestock losses in this country are not investigated. In this study, we collected and analyzed data on the numbers of reproductive units of wolves (packs and pairs together) as a surrogate of adult wolf numbers, sheep killed by wolves, living sheep, red deer (Cervus elaphus), roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), and wild boar (Sus scrofa) in every German state and year from 2002 to 2019. We applied a negative binomial Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) to estimate the effects of these predictors on the numbers of sheep killed by wolves. We also examined the relationships between the percentages of killed/living sheep and the numbers of living sheep. Ranking of 63 models based on the Akaike information criterion revealed that sheep losses were determined by state, year, and number of living sheep, not by wolf numbers, at high precision and accuracy. The number of sheep killed by wolves increased consistently by 41% per year and by 30% for every additional 10,000 sheep, mainly in the north where most wolf territories are concentrated. This means that sheep are protected insufficiently and/or ineffectively. The percentages of killed/living sheep consistently increased by 0.02–0.05% per state and year, with the maximum percentage of 0.7%, on a backdrop of decreasing numbers of living sheep. In conclusion, we demonstrate that sheep losses in Germany have been driven by the expansion of the wolf population, not by wolf numbers, and by the number of sheep available. We suggest that Germany’s wolf conservation policy should focus on alternative non-lethal interventions, enforcement and standardization of intervention monitoring, and promotion of wolf tolerance rather than on lethal control of wolf population size.

How the west was won: genetic reconstruction of rapid wolf recolonization into Germany's anthropogenic landscapes

Following massive persecution and eradication, strict legal protection facilitated a successful reestablishment of wolf packs in Germany, which has been ongoing since 2000. Here, we describe this recolonization process by mitochondrial DNA control-region sequencing, microsatellite genotyping and sex identification based on 1341 mostly non-invasively collected samples. We reconstructed the genealogy of German wolf packs between 2005 and 2015 to provide information on trends in genetic diversity, dispersal patterns and pack dynamics during the early expansion process. Our results indicate signs of a founder effect at the start of the recolonization. Genetic diversity in German wolves is moderate compared to other European wolf populations. Although dispersal among packs is male-biased in the sense that females are more philopatric, dispersal distances are similar between males and females once only dispersers are accounted for. Breeding with close relatives is regular and none of the six male wolves originating from the Italian/Alpine population reproduced. However, moderate genetic diversity and inbreeding levels of the recolonizing population are preserved by high sociality, dispersal among packs and several immigration events. Our results demonstrate an ongoing, rapid and natural wolf population expansion in an intensively used cultural landscape in Central Europe.

Indirect Effect of African Swine Fever on the Diet Composition of the Gray Wolf Canis lupus-A Case Study in Belarus

Simple Summary

The wild boar population decreased drastically in Eastern Europe after the emergence of a viral disease called African Swine Fever. We studied how the gray wolves’ diet changed in two regions in Belarus during this situation. Wolves mainly hunted wild boar, elk, red deer, roe deer and beaver. The decrease in the wild boar population caused changes in the diet of wolves, but only in Vitebsk region. After the decrease in the wild boar population, wolves in this region hunted wild boar less, but they hunted roe deer and red deer more. The more the wolves consumed wild boar, the less they consumed both deer species (roe deer and red deer). Moreover, the more the wolves consumed elk, the less they consumed beaver. In another region, Grodno, no changes in the wolves’ diet were found.

Abstract

After the emergence of African swine fever (ASF), the wild boar population numbers fell drastically in Eastern Europe. This situation made it possible to verify the changes in the wolves’ diet that occurred. The material collection was carried out in two regions, Grodno and Vitebsk, in Belarus. In total, 19 species/groups of prey were observed in the gray wolf diet, but the most important were wild boar, elk, red deer, roe deer and beaver. The decrease in the number of wild boar caused changes in the diet of wolves but only in Vitebsk region, where wolves’ diet before the ASF epidemic outbreak consisted mainly of elk and wild boar. After the decrease of wild boar numbers, wolves still mainly hunted elk, but other types of prey included roe deer, red deer and beaver. We found a negative correlation between wild boar and both deer species (roe deer and red deer) in the wolves’ diet. Moreover, the more the wolves consumed elk, the less they consumed beaver. In our opinion, only intensive hunting of wolves by humans can explain the resulting dietary fluctuations between elk and beaver, as well as the fact that wolves did not turn to other food sources.

Feeding ecology of the wolf (Canis lupus) in a near-natural ecosystem in Mongolia

The increasing animosity towards wolves (Canislupus) by livestock-keeping nomads in Mongolia and the accompanying conflicts highlight the urgent need for knowledge about the feeding behavior of wolves, since information on the feeding ecology of wolves in Mongolia is rare, especially in the mountain taiga and mountain forest steppe regions of Northern Mongolia. Those regions are characterized by a relatively high wildlife diversity and are sparsely populated by humans. To face this problem, 137 wolf scats were collected in the Khentii Mountain range in Northern Mongolia between 2008 and 2012. Almost all wolf faeces contained remnants of wild ungulates, which made up 89% of the consumed biomass. Siberian roe deer (Capreoluspygargus) was the most important and positively selected prey species. It was followed by red deer (Cervuselaphus) and wild boar (Susscrofa), which was negatively selected by wolves. Wolves also fed on buffer prey species such as lagomorphs and small mammals. No evidence of domestic ungulates was found in the wolf diet. Thus, near-natural habitats with a diverse fauna of wild animals are important to limit livestock depredation.

What does the wolf eat? Assessing the diet of the endangered Iberian wolf (Canis lupus signatus) in northeast Portugal

The Iberian wolf (Canis lupus signatus) is a top predator that inhabits the Iberian Peninsula. In Portugal, its numbers and distribution declined throughout the 20^th century, due to human persecution, habitat degradation and prey decline, which have led to higher predation rates of livestock in the remaining packs. In Montesinho Natural Park (northeast Portugal), wild ungulate populations have been increasing in the last years, which may have led wolf to predate upon them. In order to assess Iberian wolf diet in this area, 85 wolf scats were collected from transects distributed throughout the study area in two periods between November 2017 and August 2019. Scat analysis indicated a high predation on wild ungulates, where the frequency of occurrence showed that roe deer was the most consumed prey (44%), followed by red deer (26%) and wild boar (24%). Domestic/wild cat (6%), domestic goat and stone marten (5%) were consumed in lower quantities. It was found a higher selection towards roe deer (D = 0.71) and this was the only prey item which was significantly dependent of the season of the year (χ² = 16.95, df = 3, p < 0.001). This is the first study in Portugal where was recorded that wolves feed mainly on wild ungulates. We conclude that lower livestock predation may be correlated with higher wild ungulates densities in our study area, as well as suitable husbandry practices, leading to a shift on Iberian wolf diet from mainly livestock on previous studies to wild ungulates.

To Eat or Not To Eat? The Diet of the Endangered Iberian Wolf (Canis lupus signatus) in a Human-Dominated Landscape in Central Portugal

Livestock predation by large carnivores and their persecution by local communities are major conservation concerns. In order to prevent speculations and reduce conflicts, it is crucial to get detailed and accurate data on predators’ dietary ecology, which is particularly important in human dominated landscapes where livestock densities are high. This is the case of the endangered Iberian wolf in Portugal, an endemic subspecies of the Iberian Peninsula, which has seen its population distribution and abundance decline throughout the 20th century. Accordingly, the diet of the Iberian wolf was analyzed, using scat analysis, in a humanized landscape in central Portugal. From 2011 to 2014, a total of 295 wolf scats were collected from transects distributed throughout the study area, prospected on a monthly basis. Scat analysis indicated a high dependence of Iberian wolf on livestock. Domestic goat predominated the diet (62% of the scats), followed by cow (20%) and sheep (13%); the only wild ungulate present in the scat analysis was the wild boar (4% of the scats). Our results show that even though livestock constitute most part of wolves diet, different livestock species may represent different predation opportunities. We conclude that the high levels of livestock consumption may be a result of low diversity and density of wild ungulates that settles livestock as the only abundant prey for wolves. Our findings help on the understanding of the Iberian wolf feeding ecology and have implications for conflict management strategies. Finally, management implications are discussed and solutions are recommended.

Dietary nutrient profiles of wild wolves: insights for optimal dog nutrition?

Domestic dogs diverged from grey wolves between 13 000 and 17 000 years ago when food waste from human settlements provided a new niche. Compared to the carnivorous cat, modern-day dogs differ in several digestive and metabolic traits that appear to be more associated with omnivorous such as man, pigs and rats. This has led to the classification of dogs as omnivores, but the origin of these ‘omnivorous’ traits has, hitherto, been left unexplained. We discuss the foraging ecology of wild wolves and calculate the nutrient profiles of fifty diets reported in the literature. Data on the feeding ecology of wolves indicate that wolves are true carnivores consuming a negligible amount of vegetal matter. Wolves can experience prolonged times of famine during low prey availability while, after a successful hunt, the intake of foods and nutrients can be excessive. As a result of a ‘feast and famine’ lifestyle, wolves need to cope with a highly variable nutrient intake requiring an adaptable metabolism, which is still functional in our modern-day dogs. The nutritive characteristics of commercial foods differ in several aspects from the dog's closest free-living ancestor in terms of dietary nutrient profile and this may pose physiological and metabolic challenges. The present study provides new insights into dog nutrition and contributes to the ongoing optimisation of foods for pet dogs.

Bone accumulation by leopards in the Late Pleistocene in the Moncayo massif (Zaragoza, NE Spain)

Eating habits of Panthera pardus are well known. When there are caves in its territory, prey accumulates inside them. This helps to prevent its kill from being stolen by other predators like hyenas. Although the leopard is an accumulator of bones in caves, few studies have been conducted on existing lairs. There are, however, examples of fossil vertebrate sites whose main collecting agent is the leopard. During the Late Pleistocene, the leopard was a common carnivore in European faunal associations. Here we present a new locality of Quaternary mammals with a scarce human presence, the cave of Los Rincones (province of Zaragoza, Spain); we show the leopard to be the main accumulator of the bones in the cave, while there are no interactions between humans and leopards. For this purpose, a taphonomic analysis is performed on different bone-layers of the cave.

Prey selection by an apex predator: the importance of sampling uncertainty

The impact of predation on prey populations has long been a focus of ecologists, but a firm understanding of the factors influencing prey selection, a key predictor of that impact, remains elusive. High levels of variability observed in prey selection may reflect true differences in the ecology of different communities but might also reflect a failure to deal adequately with uncertainties in the underlying data. Indeed, our review showed that less than 10% of studies of European wolf predation accounted for sampling uncertainty. Here, we relate annual variability in wolf diet to prey availability and examine temporal patterns in prey selection; in particular, we identify how considering uncertainty alters conclusions regarding prey selection.

Over nine years, we collected 1,974 wolf scats and conducted drive censuses of ungulates in Alpe di Catenaia, Italy. We bootstrapped scat and census data within years to construct confidence intervals around estimates of prey use, availability and selection. Wolf diet was dominated by boar (61.5±3.90 [SE] % of biomass eaten) and roe deer (33.7±3.61%). Temporal patterns of prey densities revealed that the proportion of roe deer in wolf diet peaked when boar densities were low, not when roe deer densities were highest. Considering only the two dominant prey types, Manly's standardized selection index using all data across years indicated selection for boar (mean = 0.73±0.023). However, sampling error resulted in wide confidence intervals around estimates of prey selection. Thus, despite considerable variation in yearly estimates, confidence intervals for all years overlapped. Failing to consider such uncertainty could lead erroneously to the assumption of differences in prey selection among years. This study highlights the importance of considering temporal variation in relative prey availability and accounting for sampling uncertainty when interpreting the results of dietary studies.

An advanced method to assess the diet of free-ranging large carnivores based on scats

Background

The diet of free-ranging carnivores is an important part of their ecology. It is often determined from prey remains in scats. In many cases, scat analyses are the most efficient method but they require correction for potential biases. When the diet is expressed as proportions of consumed mass of each prey species, the consumed prey mass to excrete one scat needs to be determined and corrected for prey body mass because the proportion of digestible to indigestible matter increases with prey body mass. Prey body mass can be corrected for by conducting feeding experiments using prey of various body masses and fitting a regression between consumed prey mass to excrete one scat and prey body mass (correction factor 1). When the diet is expressed as proportions of consumed individuals of each prey species and includes prey animals not completely consumed, the actual mass of each prey consumed by the carnivore needs to be controlled for (correction factor 2). No previous study controlled for this second bias.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Here we use an extended series of feeding experiments on a large carnivore, the cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus), to establish both correction factors. In contrast to previous studies which fitted a linear regression for correction factor 1, we fitted a biologically more meaningful exponential regression model where the consumed prey mass to excrete one scat reaches an asymptote at large prey sizes. Using our protocol, we also derive correction factor 1 and 2 for other carnivore species and apply them to published studies. We show that the new method increases the number and proportion of consumed individuals in the diet for large prey animals compared to the conventional method.

Conclusion/Significance

Our results have important implications for the interpretation of scat-based studies in feeding ecology and the resolution of human-wildlife conflicts for the conservation of large carnivores.

Diet of wolves Canis lupus returning to Hungary

At the end of the nineteenth century, the wolf Canis lupus was extinct in Hungary and in recent decades has returned to the northern highland area of the country. The diet of wolves living in groups in Aggteleki National Park was investigated using scat analysis (n = 81 scats) and prey remains (n = 31 carcasses). Throughout the year wolves (average, minimum two wolves per year) consumed mostly wild-living ungulates (mean percent of biomass consumed, B% 97.2%; relative frequency of occurrence, %O 74.0%). The wild boar Sus scrofa was the most common prey item found in wolf scat (%B 35.6%) and is also the most commonly occurring ungulate in the study areas. The second most commonly occurring prey item in wolf scat was red deer Cervus elaphus (B% 32.8%). Conversely, prey remain analyses revealed wild boar as the second most commonly utilised prey species (%O 16.1%) after red deer (%O 67.7%). The roe deer Capreolus capreolus that occurs at lower population densities was the third most commonly utilised prey species. The importance of low population density mouflon Ovis aries, livestock and other food types was low. The results are similar to those found in the northern part of the Carpathian Mountains.