Genomic prediction across years in a maize doubled haploid breeding program to accelerate early-stage testcross testing

Genomic selection in plant breeding: Key factors shaping two decades of progress

Genomic selection, the application of genomic prediction (GP) models to select candidate individuals, has significantly advanced in the past two decades, effectively accelerating genetic gains in plant breeding. This article provides a holistic overview of key factors that have influenced GP in plant breeding during this period. We delved into the pivotal roles of training population size and genetic diversity, and their relationship with the breeding population, in determining GP accuracy. Special emphasis was placed on optimizing training population size. We explored its benefits and the associated diminishing returns beyond an optimum size. This was done while considering the balance between resource allocation and maximizing prediction accuracy through current optimization algorithms. The density and distribution of single-nucleotide polymorphisms, level of linkage disequilibrium, genetic complexity, trait heritability, statistical machine-learning methods, and non-additive effects are the other vital factors. Using wheat, maize, and potato as examples, we summarize the effect of these factors on the accuracy of GP for various traits. The search for high accuracy in GP-theoretically reaching one when using the Pearson's correlation as a metric-is an active research area as yet far from optimal for various traits. We hypothesize that with ultra-high sizes of genotypic and phenotypic datasets, effective training population optimization methods and support from other omics approaches (transcriptomics, metabolomics and proteomics) coupled with deep-learning algorithms could overcome the boundaries of current limitations to achieve the highest possible prediction accuracy, making genomic selection an effective tool in plant breeding.

Portability of genomic predictions trained on sparse factorial designs across two maize silage breeding cycles

KEY MESSAGE

We validated the efficiency of genomic predictions calibrated on sparse factorial training sets to predict the next generation of hybrids and tested different strategies for updating predictions along generations. Genomic selection offers new prospects for revisiting hybrid breeding schemes by replacing extensive phenotyping of individuals with genomic predictions. Finding the ideal design for training genomic prediction models is still an open question. Previous studies have shown promising predictive abilities using sparse factorial instead of tester-based training sets to predict single-cross hybrids from the same generation. This study aims to further investigate the use of factorials and their optimization to predict line general combining abilities (GCAs) and hybrid values across breeding cycles. It relies on two breeding cycles of a maize reciprocal genomic selection scheme involving multiparental connected reciprocal populations from flint and dent complementary heterotic groups selected for silage performances. Selection based on genomic predictions trained on a factorial design resulted in a significant genetic gain for dry matter yield in the new generation. Results confirmed the efficiency of sparse factorial training sets to predict candidate line GCAs and hybrid values across breeding cycles. Compared to a previous study based on the first generation, the advantage of factorial over tester training sets appeared lower across generations. Updating factorial training sets by adding single-cross hybrids between selected lines from the previous generation or a random subset of hybrids from the new generation both improved predictive abilities. The CDmean criterion helped determine the set of single-crosses to phenotype to update the training set efficiently. Our results validated the efficiency of sparse factorial designs for calibrating hybrid genomic prediction experimentally and showed the benefit of updating it along generations.

Simultaneous improvement of grain yield and grain protein concentration in durum wheat by using association tests and weighted GBLUP

KEY MESSAGE

Simultaneous improvement for GY and GPC by using GWAS and GBLUP suggested a significant application in durum wheat breeding. Despite the importance of grain protein concentration (GPC) in determining wheat quality, its negative correlation with grain yield (GY) is still one of the major challenges for breeders. Here, a durum wheat panel of 200 genotypes was evaluated for GY, GPC, and their derived indices (GPD and GYD), under eight different agronomic conditions. The plant material was genotyped with the Illumina 25 k iSelect array, and a genome-wide association study was performed. Two statistical models revealed dozens of marker-trait associations (MTAs), each explaining up to 30%. phenotypic variance. Two markers on chromosomes 2A and 6B were consistently identified by both models and were found to be significantly associated with GY and GPC. MTAs identified for phenological traits co-mapped to well-known genes (i.e., Ppd-1, Vrn-1). The significance values (p-values) that measure the strength of the association of each single nucleotide polymorphism marker with the target traits were used to perform genomic prediction by using a weighted genomic best linear unbiased prediction model. The trained models were ultimately used to predict the agronomic performances of an independent durum wheat panel, confirming the utility of genomic prediction, although environmental conditions and genetic backgrounds may still be a challenge to overcome. The results generated through our study confirmed the utility of GPD and GYD to mitigate the inverse GY and GPC relationship in wheat, provided novel markers for marker-assisted selection and opened new ways to develop cultivars through genomic prediction approaches.

Discovery of genomic regions associated with grain yield and agronomic traits in Bi-parental populations of maize (Zea mays. L) Under optimum and low nitrogen conditions

Low soil nitrogen levels, compounded by the high costs associated with nitrogen supplementation through fertilizers, significantly contribute to food insecurity, malnutrition, and rural poverty in maize-dependent smallholder communities of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The discovery of genomic regions associated with low nitrogen tolerance in maize can enhance selection efficiency and facilitate the development of improved varieties. To elucidate the genetic architecture of grain yield (GY) and its associated traits (anthesis-silking interval (ASI), anthesis date (AD), plant height (PH), ear position (EPO), and ear height (EH)) under different soil nitrogen regimes, four F3 maize populations were evaluated in Kenya and Zimbabwe. GY and all the traits evaluated showed significant genotypic variance and moderate heritability under both optimum and low nitrogen stress conditions. A total of 91 quantitative trait loci (QTL) related to GY (11) and other secondary traits (AD (26), PH (19), EH (24), EPO (7) and ASI (4)) were detected. Under low soil nitrogen conditions, PH and ASI had the highest number of QTLs. Furthermore, some common QTLs were identified between secondary traits under both nitrogen regimes. These QTLs are of significant value for further validation and possible rapid introgression into maize populations using marker-assisted selection. Identification of many QTL with minor effects indicates genomic selection (GS) is more appropriate for their improvement. Genomic prediction within each population revealed low to moderately high accuracy under optimum and low soil N stress management. However, the accuracies were higher for GY, PH and EH under optimum compared to low soil N stress. Our findings indicate that genetic gain can be improved in maize breeding for low N stress tolerance by using GS.

Overcoming roadblocks for in vitro nurseries in plants: induction of meiosis

Efforts to increase genetic gains in breeding programs of flowering plants depend on making genetic crosses. Time to flowering, which can take months to decades depending on the species, can be a limiting factor in such breeding programs. It has been proposed that the rate of genetic gain can be increased by reducing the time between generations by circumventing flowering through the in vitro induction of meiosis. In this review, we assess technologies and approaches that may offer a path towards meiosis induction, the largest current bottleneck for in vitro plant breeding. Studies in non-plant, eukaryotic organisms indicate that the in vitro switch from mitotic cell division to meiosis is inefficient and occurs at very low rates. Yet, this has been achieved with mammalian cells by the manipulation of a limited number of genes. Therefore, to experimentally identify factors that switch mitosis to meiosis in plants, it is necessary to develop a high-throughput system to evaluate a large number of candidate genes and treatments, each using large numbers of cells, few of which may gain the ability to induce meiosis.

Training set designs for prediction of yield and moisture of maize test cross hybrids with unreplicated trials

Unreplicated field trials and genomic prediction are both used to enhance the efficiency in early selection stages of a hybrid maize breeding program. No results are available on the optimal experimental design when combining both approaches. Our objectives were to investigate the effect of the training set design on the accuracy of genomic prediction in unreplicated maize test crosses. We carried out a cross validation study on basis of an experimental data set consisting of 1436 hybrids evaluated for yield and moisture for which genotyping information of 461 SNP markers were available. Training set designs of different size, implementing within environment prediction, within year prediction, across year prediction, and combinations of data sources across years and environments were compared with respect to their prediction accuracy. Across year prediction did not reach prediction accuracies that are useful for genomic selection. Within year prediction across environments provided useful correlations between observed and predicted breeding values. The prediction accuracies did not improve when adding to the training set data from previous years. We conclude that using all data available from unreplicated tests of the current breeding cycle provides a good accuracy of predicting test crosses, whereas adding data from previous breeding cycles, in which the genotypes are less related to the tested material, has only limited value for increasing the prediction accuracy.

Genome-Wide Association Study and Genomic Prediction on Plant Architecture Traits in Sweet Corn and Waxy Corn

Sweet corn and waxy corn has a better taste and higher accumulated nutritional value than regular maize, and is widely planted and popularly consumed throughout the world. Plant height (PH), ear height (EH), and tassel branch number (TBN) are key plant architecture traits, which play an important role in improving grain yield in maize. In this study, a genome-wide association study (GWAS) and genomic prediction analysis were conducted on plant architecture traits of PH, EH, and TBN in a fresh edible maize population consisting of 190 sweet corn inbred lines and 287 waxy corn inbred lines. Phenotypic data from two locations showed high heritability for all three traits, with significant differences observed between sweet corn and waxy corn for both PH and EH. The differences between the three subgroups of sweet corn were not obvious for all three traits. Population structure and PCA analysis results divided the whole population into three subgroups, i.e., sweet corn, waxy corn, and the subgroup mixed with sweet and waxy corn. Analysis of GWAS was conducted with 278,592 SNPs obtained from resequencing data; 184, 45, and 68 significantly associated SNPs were detected for PH, EH, and TBN, respectively. The phenotypic variance explained (PVE) values of these significant SNPs ranged from 3.50% to 7.0%. The results of this study lay the foundation for further understanding the genetic basis of plant architecture traits in sweet corn and waxy corn. Genomic selection (GS) is a new approach for improving quantitative traits in large plant breeding populations that uses whole-genome molecular markers. The marker number and marker quality are essential for the application of GS in maize breeding. GWAS can choose the most related markers with the traits, so it can be used to improve the predictive accuracy of GS.

An efficient genomic prediction method without the direct inverse of the genomic relationship matrix

GBLUP, the most widely used genomic prediction (GP) method, consumes large and increasing amounts of computational resources as the training population size increases due to the inverse of the genomic relationship matrix (GRM). Therefore, in this study, we developed a new genomic prediction method (RHEPCG) that avoids the direct inverse of the GRM by combining randomized Haseman-Elston (HE) regression (RHE-reg) and a preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCG). The simulation results demonstrate that RHEPCG, in most cases, not only achieves similar predictive accuracy with GBLUP but also significantly reduces computational time. As for the real data, RHEPCG shows similar or better predictive accuracy for seven traits of the Arabidopsis thaliana F2 population and four traits of the Sorghum bicolor RIL population compared with GBLUP. This indicates that RHEPCG is a practical alternative to GBLUP and has better computational efficiency.

Multi-Trait Genomic Prediction Improves Accuracy of Selection among Doubled Haploid Lines in Maize

Recent advances in maize doubled haploid (DH) technology have enabled the development of large numbers of DH lines quickly and efficiently. However, testing all possible hybrid crosses among DH lines is a challenge. Phenotyping haploid progenitors created during the DH process could accelerate the selection of DH lines. Based on phenotypic and genotypic data of a DH population and its corresponding haploids, we compared phenotypes and estimated genetic correlations between the two populations, compared genomic prediction accuracy of multi-trait models against conventional univariate models within the DH population, and evaluated whether incorporating phenotypic data from haploid lines into a multi-trait model could better predict performance of DH lines. We found significant phenotypic differences between DH and haploid lines for nearly all traits; however, their genetic correlations between populations were moderate to strong. Furthermore, a multi-trait model taking into account genetic correlations between traits in the single-environment trial or genetic covariances in multi-environment trials can significantly increase genomic prediction accuracy. However, integrating information of haploid lines did not further improve our prediction. Our findings highlight the superiority of multi-trait models in predicting performance of DH lines in maize breeding, but do not support the routine phenotyping and selection on haploid progenitors of DH lines.

Advances in integrated genomic selection for rapid genetic gain in crop improvement: a review

Genomic selection and its importance in crop breeding. Integration of GS with new breeding tools and developing SOP for GS to achieve maximum genetic gain with low cost and time. The success of conventional breeding approaches is not sufficient to meet the demand of a growing population for nutritious food and other plant-based products. Whereas, marker assisted selection (MAS) is not efficient in capturing all the favorable alleles responsible for economic traits in the process of crop improvement. Genomic selection (GS) developed in livestock breeding and then adapted to plant breeding promised to overcome the drawbacks of MAS and significantly improve complicated traits controlled by gene/QTL with small effects. Large-scale deployment of GS in important crops, as well as simulation studies in a variety of contexts, addressed G × E interaction effects and non-additive effects, as well as lowering breeding costs and time. The current study provides a complete overview of genomic selection, its process, and importance in modern plant breeding, along with insights into its application. GS has been implemented in the improvement of complex traits including tolerance to biotic and abiotic stresses. Furthermore, this review hypothesises that using GS in conjunction with other crop improvement platforms accelerates the breeding process to increase genetic gain. The objective of this review is to highlight the development of an appropriate GS model, the global open source network for GS, and trans-disciplinary approaches for effective accelerated crop improvement. The current study focused on the application of data science, including machine learning and deep learning tools, to enhance the accuracy of prediction models. Present study emphasizes on developing plant breeding strategies centered on GS combined with routine conventional breeding principles by developing GS-SOP to achieve enhanced genetic gain.

Building a Calibration Set for Genomic Prediction, Characteristics to Be Considered, and Optimization Approaches

The efficiency of genomic selection strongly depends on the prediction accuracy of the genetic merit of candidates. Numerous papers have shown that the composition of the calibration set is a key contributor to prediction accuracy. A poorly defined calibration set can result in low accuracies, whereas an optimized one can considerably increase accuracy compared to random sampling, for a same size. Alternatively, optimizing the calibration set can be a way of decreasing the costs of phenotyping by enabling similar levels of accuracy compared to random sampling but with fewer phenotypic units. We present here the different factors that have to be considered when designing a calibration set, and review the different criteria proposed in the literature. We classified these criteria into two groups: model-free criteria based on relatedness, and criteria derived from the linear mixed model. We introduce criteria targeting specific prediction objectives including the prediction of highly diverse panels, biparental families, or hybrids. We also review different ways of updating the calibration set, and different procedures for optimizing phenotyping experimental designs.

Optimizing Genomic-Enabled Prediction in Small-Scale Maize Hybrid Breeding Programs: A Roadmap Review

The usefulness of genomic prediction (GP) for many animal and plant breeding programs has been highlighted for many studies in the last 20 years. In maize breeding programs, mostly dedicated to delivering more highly adapted and productive hybrids, this approach has been proved successful for both large- and small-scale breeding programs worldwide. Here, we present some of the strategies developed to improve the accuracy of GP in tropical maize, focusing on its use under low budget and small-scale conditions achieved for most of the hybrid breeding programs in developing countries. We highlight the most important outcomes obtained by the University of São Paulo (USP, Brazil) and how they can improve the accuracy of prediction in tropical maize hybrids. Our roadmap starts with the efforts for germplasm characterization, moving on to the practices for mating design, and the selection of the genotypes that are used to compose the training population in field phenotyping trials. Factors including population structure and the importance of non-additive effects (dominance and epistasis) controlling the desired trait are also outlined. Finally, we explain how the source of the molecular markers, environmental, and the modeling of genotype-environment interaction can affect the accuracy of GP. Results of 7 years of research in a public maize hybrid breeding program under tropical conditions are discussed, and with the great advances that have been made, we find that what is yet to come is exciting. The use of open-source software for the quality control of molecular markers, implementing GP, and envirotyping pipelines may reduce costs in an efficient computational manner. We conclude that exploring new models/tools using high-throughput phenotyping data along with large-scale envirotyping may bring more resolution and realism when predicting genotype performances. Despite the initial costs, mostly for genotyping, the GP platforms in combination with these other data sources can be a cost-effective approach for predicting the performance of maize hybrids for a large set of growing conditions.

Application of Genomic Selection at the Early Stage of Breeding Pipeline in Tropical Maize

In maize, doubled haploid (DH) line production capacity of large-sized maize breeding programs often exceeds the capacity to phenotypically evaluate the complete set of testcross candidates in multi-location trials. The ability to partially select DH lines based on genotypic data while maintaining or improving genetic gains for key traits using phenotypic selection can result in significant resource savings. The present study aimed to evaluate genomic selection (GS) prediction scenarios for grain yield and agronomic traits of one of the tropical maize breeding pipelines of CIMMYT in eastern Africa, based on multi-year empirical data for designing a GS-based strategy at the early stages of the pipeline. We used field data from 3,068 tropical maize DH lines genotyped using rAmpSeq markers and evaluated as test crosses in well-watered (WW) and water-stress (WS) environments in Kenya from 2017 to 2019. Three prediction schemes were compared: (1) 1 year of performance data to predict a second year; (2) 2 years of pooled data to predict performance in the third year, and (3) using individual or pooled data plus converting a certain proportion of individuals from the testing set (TST) to the training set (TRN) to predict the next year's data. Employing five-fold cross-validation, the mean prediction accuracies for grain yield (GY) varied from 0.19 to 0.29 under WW and 0.22 to 0.31 under WS, when the 1-year datasets were used training set to predict a second year's data as a testing set. The mean prediction accuracies increased to 0.32 under WW and 0.31 under WS when the 2-year datasets were used as a training set to predict the third-year data set. In a forward prediction scenario, good predictive abilities (0.53 to 0.71) were found when the training set consisted of the previous year's breeding data and converting 30% of the next year's data from the testing set to the training set. The prediction accuracy for anthesis date and plant height across WW and WS environments obtained using 1-year data and integrating 10, 30, 50, 70, and 90% of the TST set to TRN set was much higher than those trained in individual years. We demonstrate that by increasing the TRN set to include genotypic and phenotypic data from the previous year and combining only 10-30% of the lines from the year of testing, the predicting accuracy can be increased, which in turn could be used to replace the first stage of field-based screening partially, thus saving significant costs associated with the testcross formation and multi-location testcross evaluation.

Beat the stress: breeding for climate resilience in maize for the tropical rainfed environments

Intensive public sector breeding efforts and public-private partnerships have led to the increase in genetic gains, and deployment of elite climate-resilient maize cultivars for the stress-prone environments in the tropics. Maize (Zea mays L.) plays a critical role in ensuring food and nutritional security, and livelihoods of millions of resource-constrained smallholders. However, maize yields in the tropical rainfed environments are now increasingly vulnerable to various climate-induced stresses, especially drought, heat, waterlogging, salinity, cold, diseases, and insect pests, which often come in combinations to severely impact maize crops. The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), in partnership with several public and private sector institutions, has been intensively engaged over the last four decades in breeding elite tropical maize germplasm with tolerance to key abiotic and biotic stresses, using an extensive managed stress screening network and on-farm testing system. This has led to the successful development and deployment of an array of elite stress-tolerant maize cultivars across sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Further increasing genetic gains in the tropical maize breeding programs demands judicious integration of doubled haploidy, high-throughput and precise phenotyping, genomics-assisted breeding, breeding data management, and more effective decision support tools. Multi-institutional efforts, especially public-private alliances, are key to ensure that the improved maize varieties effectively reach the climate-vulnerable farming communities in the tropics, including accelerated replacement of old/obsolete varieties.

Genetic Dissection of Quantitative Resistance to Common Rust (Puccinia sorghi) in Tropical Maize (Zea mays L.) by Combined Genome-Wide Association Study, Linkage Mapping, and Genomic Prediction

Common rust is one of the major foliar diseases in maize, leading to significant grain yield losses and poor grain quality. To dissect the genetic architecture of common rust resistance, a genome-wide association study (GWAS) panel and a bi-parental doubled haploid (DH) population, DH1, were used to perform GWAS and linkage mapping analyses. The GWAS results revealed six single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) significantly associated with quantitative resistance of common rust at a very stringent threshold of P-value 3.70 × 10^-6 at bins 1.05, 1.10, 3.04, 3.05, 4.08, and 10.04. Linkage mapping identified five quantitative trait loci (QTL) at bins 1.03, 2.06, 4.08, 7.03, and 9.00. The phenotypic variation explained (PVE) value of each QTL ranged from 5.40 to 12.45%, accounting for the total PVE value of 40.67%. Joint GWAS and linkage mapping analyses identified a stable genomic region located at bin 4.08. Five significant SNPs were only identified by GWAS, and four QTL were only detected by linkage mapping. The significantly associated SNP of S10_95231291 detected in the GWAS analysis was first reported. The linkage mapping analysis detected two new QTL on chromosomes 7 and 10. The major QTL on chromosome 7 in the region between 144,567,253 and 149,717,562 bp had the largest PVE value of 12.45%. Four candidate genes of GRMZM2G328500, GRMZM2G162250, GRMZM2G114893, and GRMZM2G138949 were identified, which played important roles in the response of stress resilience and the regulation of plant growth and development. Genomic prediction (GP) accuracies observed in the GWAS panel and DH1 population were 0.61 and 0.51, respectively. This study provided new insight into the genetic architecture of quantitative resistance of common rust. In tropical maize, common rust could be improved by pyramiding the new sources of quantitative resistance through marker-assisted selection (MAS) or genomic selection (GS), rather than the implementation of MAS for the single dominant race-specific resistance gene.