Post-treatment PET/CT and p16 status for predicting treatment outcomes in locally advanced head and neck cancer after definitive radiation

Interpretable survival network for progression risk analysis of multimodality imaging biomarkers in poor-prognosis head and neck cancers

This study explores the predictive utility of multi-time point, multi-modality quantitative imaging biomarkers (QIBs) and clinical factors in patients with poor-prognosis head and neck cancers (HNCs) using interpretable machine learning. We examined 93 patients with p16 + oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma or locally advanced p16- HNCs enrolled in a phase II adaptive radiation dose escalation trial. FDG-PET and multiparametric MRI scans were conducted before radiation therapy and at the 10th fraction (2 weeks). A survival network analyzed MRI and PET-derived biomarkers such as gross tumor volume (GTV), blood volume (BV), and metabolic tumor volume (MTV50), along with clinical factors to predict local (LF) and distant failures (DF). Feature attributions and interactions were assessed using Expected Gradients (EG) and Expected Hessian (EH). Through rigorous cross-validation, the model for predicting LF, incorporating biomarkers like p16 status and radiation boost, achieved a c-index of 0.758. Similarly, the DF prediction model showed a c-index of 0.695. The analysis of feature attributions and interactions enhanced understanding of important features and complex factor interplays, potentially guiding more personalized and intensified treatment approaches for HNC patients.

Diagnostic Performance of 18F-FDG PET/CT According to Delay After Treatment to Detect Subclinical Recurrence of Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) remains a malignancy with high rates of locoregional recurrence and poor prognosis for recurrent cases. Early detection of subclinical lesions is challenging but critical for effective patient management. Imaging surveillance after treatment, particularly 18F-FDG PET/CT, has shown promise in the diagnosis of HNSCC recurrence. The aim was to evaluate the diagnostic performance of 18F-FDG PET/CT according to delay after treatment in detecting subclinical recurrence (SCR) in HNSCC patients. Methods: In this retrospective study, all 18F-FDG PET/CT scans were performed at a single center. All adults with histologically proven HNSCC who were treated with curative intent between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2021, were included. They had a normal clinical examination before each scan. Patients who underwent an intensive follow-up strategy after treatment had 18F-FDG PET/CT with an intravenous contrast agent at 3-6 mo and annually thereafter for 5 y. The primary endpoint was diagnostic performance (positive and negative predictive values, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy). Results: In total, 2,566 18F-FDG PET/CT scans were performed among 852 patients, with an average of 3 scans per patient. The overall diagnostic performance measures were as follows: positive predictive value (88%), negative predictive value (98%), sensitivity (98%), specificity (89%), and accuracy (93%). There were no significant differences in diagnostic performance over time. The scans detected 126 cases of SCR (14.8%) and 118 cases of metachronous cancer (13.8%). The incidence of SCR decreased over time, with the highest detection rate in the first 2 y after treatment. Positive predictive value improved over time, reaching 90% for the digital Vision 600 system (third period) compared with 76% for the analog Gemini GXLi system (first period, P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis identified advanced stage, high body mass index, and initial PET/CT upstaging as predictive factors for detection of SCR. Conclusion: Our study demonstrates that 18F-FDG PET/CT has high diagnostic performance in detecting SCR during follow-up after treatment of HNSCC, especially in the first 2 y. Advanced tumor stage, initial PET/CT upstaging, and high body mass index were associated with a higher likelihood of SCR detection. The routine use of 18F-FDG PET/CT during follow-up seems justified for patients with HNSCC.

Post-treatment PET/CT for p16-positive oropharynx cancer treated with definitive proton therapy

Objectives

Given emerging data suggesting that uncertainty in the relative biologic effectiveness at the distal end of the Bragg peak results in increased mucosal injury in patients with oropharynx cancer receiving adjuvant proton therapy, we evaluated the results of post-treatment positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET/CT) in patients with p16-positive oropharynx cancer (p16+OPC) treated with definitive intensity-modulated proton therapy (IMPT).

Material and Methods

A retrospective cohort study of patients with p16+OPC treated with definitive IMPT between 2016 and 2022 was performed at a single institution. Patients with PET/CT scans within 6 months following completion of IMPT were included in the study. Positive post-treatment scans were defined by a maximum standard uptake values (SUVmax) >4.0 or a <65% reduction in SUVmax in either the primary tumor or lymph node. The Fisher's exact test was used to evaluate factors associated with positive post-treatment PET/ CT values.

Results

Sixty-two patients were included for analysis. Median follow-up was 21 months (range: 3-71 months) with a median time to post-treatment PET/CT of 3 months (range: 2-6 months). Median post-treatment SUVmax of the primary disease and nodal disease was 0 (mean: 0.8, range: 0-7.7) and 0 (mean: 0.7, range: 0-9.5), respectively. Median post-treatment percent reduction in SUVmax for the primary site and lymph node was 100% (mean: 94%, range: 31.3-100%) and 100% (mean: 89%, range: 23-100%), respectively. Eleven patients had a positive post-treatment PET/CT with one biopsy-proven recurrence. Negative and positive predictive values (NPV and PPV) were 98% and 9.1%, respectively. There were no factors associated with positive post-treatment PET/CT.

Conclusion

Similar to patients treated with photon-based radiation therapy, post-treatment PET/CT has a high NPV for patients with p16+OPC treated with definitive proton therapy and should be used to guide patient management. Additional patients and more events are needed to confirm the PPV of a post-treatment PET/CT in this favorable patient cohort.

Accuracy of Response Assessment FDG PET-CT Post (Chemo)Radiotherapy in HPV Negative Oropharynx Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Background: Data on the accuracy of response assessment 2-[fluorine-18]-fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose (FDG) positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) following (chemo)radiotherapy in patients with oropharynx squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) is predominantly based on HPV-positive disease. There is a paucity of data for HPV-negative disease, which has a less favourable prognosis. Methods: 96 patients treated with (chemo)radiotherapy for HPV-negative OPSCC with baseline and response assessment FDG PET-CT between 2013−2020, were analysed. PET-CT response was classified as negative, equivocal, or positive based on qualitative reporting. PET-CT response categories were analysed with reference to clinicopathological outcomes. Test characteristics were evaluated, comparing negative results to equivocal and positive results together. Post-test probabilities were calculated separately for positive and equivocal or negative results. Results: Median follow-up was 26 months. The negative predictive value of a negative scan was 93.7 and 93.2%, respectively, for primary tumour and nodal disease. For a negative scan, the post-test probability was 0.06 for primary and 0.07 for nodal disease. The post-test probability of an equivocal scan was 0.51 and 0.72 for primary and lymph node, respectively. The post-test probability of a positive scan approached 1. For patients with/without a negative scan, two-year overall survival and progression-free survival were 83% versus 30% and 79% versus 17% (p < 0.001), respectively. Conclusion: The NPV of a negative response assessment PET-CT in HPV-negative OPSCC is high, supporting a strategy of clinical monitoring. Contrasting with the published literature for HPV-positive OPSCC, an equivocal response scan was associated with a moderate rate of residual disease.

Imaging of human papilloma virus associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma and its impact on diagnosis, prognostication, and response assessment

The clinical behaviour and outcomes of patients with oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) may be dichotomised according to their association with human papilloma virus (HPV) infection. Patients with HPV-associated disease (HPV+OPC) have a distinct demographic profile, clinical phenotype and demonstrate considerably better responses to chemoradiotherapy. This has led to a reappraisal of staging and treatment strategies for HPV+OPC, which are underpinned by radiological data. Structural modalities, such as CT and MRI can provide accurate staging information. These can be combined with ultrasound-guided tissue sampling and functional techniques (such as diffusion-weighted MRI and 18F-fludeoxyglucose positron emission tomography-CT) to monitor response to treatment, derive prognostic information, and to identify individuals who might benefit from intensification or deintensification strategies. Furthermore, advanced MRI techniques, such as intravoxel incoherent motion and perfusion MRI as well as application of artificial intelligence and radiomic techniques, have shown promise in treatment response monitoring and prognostication. The following review will consider the contemporary role and knowledge on imaging in HPV+OPC.

Response Evaluation Following Radiation Therapy With 18F-FDG PET/CT: Common Variants of Radiation-Induced Changes and Potential Pitfalls

Radiation therapy (RT) is one of the cornerstones in cancer treatment and approximately half of all patients will receive some form of RT during the course of their cancer management. Response evaluation after RT and follow-up imaging with ¹⁸F-Fluorodeoxyglucose (¹⁸F-FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) can be complicated by RT-induced acute, chronic or consequential effects. There is a general consensus that ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT for response evaluation should be delayed for 12 weeks after completing RT to minimize the risk of false-positive findings. Radiation-induced late side effects in normal tissue can take years to develop and eventually cause symptoms that on imaging can potentially mimic recurrent disease. Imaging findings in radiation induced injuries depend on the normal tissue included in the irradiated volume and the radiation therapy regime including the total dose delivered, dose per fraction and treatment schedule. The intent for radiation therapy should be taken in consideration when evaluating the response on imaging, that is palliative vs curative or neoadjuvant vs adjuvant RT. Imaging findings can further be distorted by altered anatomy and sequelae following surgery within the radiation field. An awareness of common PET/CT-induced changes/injuries is essential when interpreting ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT as well as obtaining a complete medical history, as patients are occasionally scanned for an unrelated cause to previously RT treated malignancy. In addition, secondary malignancies due to carcinogenic effects of radiation exposure in long-term cancer survivors should not be overlooked. ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT can be very useful in response evaluation and follow-up in patients treated with RT, however, variants and pitfalls are common and it is important to remember that radiation-induced injury is often a diagnosis of exclusion.

Mid-treatment Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography in Human Papillomavirus-related Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Treated with Primary Radiotherapy: Nodal Metabolic Response Rate can Predict Treatment Outcomes

AIMS

To evaluate whether biomarkers derived from fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography-computed tomography (FDG PET-CT) performed prior to (prePET) and during the third week (interim PET; iPET) of radiotherapy can predict treatment outcomes in human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective analysis included 46 patients with newly diagnosed OPC treated with definitive (chemo)radiation and all patients had confirmed positive HPV status (HPV+OPC) based on p16 immunohistochemistry. The maximum standardised uptake value (SUV_max), metabolic tumour volume (MTV) and total lesional glycolysis (TLG) of primary, index node (node with the highest TLG) and total lymph nodes and their median percentage (≥50%) reductions in iPET were analysed, and correlated with 5-year Kaplan-Meier and multivariable analyses (smoking, T4, N2b-3 and AJCC stage IV), including local failure-free survival, regional failure-free survival, locoregional failure-free survival (LRFFS), distant metastatic failure-free survival (DMFFS), disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival.

RESULTS

There was no association of outcomes with prePET parameters observed on multivariate analysis. A complete metabolic response of primary tumour was seen in 13 patients; the negative predictive value for local failure was 100%. More than a 50% reduction in total nodal MTV provided the best predictor of outcomes, including LRFFS (88% versus 47.1%, P = 0.006, hazard ratio = 0.153) and DFS (78.2% versus 41.2%, P = 0.01, hazard ratio = 0.234). More than a 50% reduction in index node TLG was inversely related to DMFFS: a better nodal response was associated with a higher incidence of distant metastatic failure (66.7% versus 100%, P = 0.009, hazard ratio = 3.0).

CONCLUSION

The reduction (≥50%) of volumetric nodal metabolic burden can potentially identify a subgroup of HPV+OPC patients at low risk of locoregional failure but inversely at higher risk of distant metastatic failure and may have a role in individualised adaptive radiotherapy and systemic therapy.

Volumetric parameters derived from FLT-PET performed at completion of treatment predict efficacy of Carbon-ion Radiotherapy in patients with locally recurrent Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of 3'-deoxy-3'-[¹⁸F]fluorothymidine (FLT)-PET for predicting the outcome of patients with locally recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LR-NPC) treated by carbon-ion radiotherapy (CIRT). Patients received FLT-PET/CT scan one-week prior to or after completion of CIRT were enrolled in the study. All patients were from prospective trials or treated using a standardized protocol. Time-dependent receiver operator characteristics (ROC) were used to determine the optimal cutoff values for FLT-PET parameters. Univariable and multivariable analyses of local progression-free survival (LPFS) were performed using Cox regression, to examine the prognostic value of FLT-PET parameters, including SUV_max, metabolic tumor volume (MTV) and total lesion thymidine (TLT). A total of 41 patients were enrolled. Elevated MTV and TLT were significantly associated with worse LPFS, in both univariable and multivariable analyses. ROC analysis revealed that both an MTV value higher than 8.6 and a TLT value higher than 14.9 were predictive of increased risk of developing local recurrence, the adjusted HRs were 5.59 (p=0.009) and 7.76 (p=0.002), respectively. In conclusion, FLT-PET was found to be a promising prognostic tool for LR-NPC patients and might play a role in the treatment guidance.

Primary vs nodal site PET/CT response as a prognostic marker in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma treated with intensity-modulated radiation therapy

BACKGROUND

Positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) in staging of advanced oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) and at 3 months posttreatment (PETpost) is often utilized to assess response. The significance of lymph node vs primary site treatment response is incompletely understood.

METHODS

We reviewed 230 patients treated with radiation therapy. PETpost response was graded at primary and nodal sites and correlated with survival.

RESULTS

Median age was 58, and 83% were p16-positive. Median follow-up was 24.3 months. Nodal response at PETpost predicted improved 2-year local recurrence-free survival (LRFS) (93% vs 72%, P =.004), 2-year disease-free survival (DFS) (80% vs 61.3%, P =.021), and 2-year overall survival (OS) (89% vs 83%, P =.051), while primary response only predicted improved 2-year LRFS (91% vs 76% P = .035).

CONCLUSION

In OPSCC patients, both nodal and primary response at 3 months on PET/CT predicted for improved LRFS, but only nodal response predicted DFS and OS.

Post-treatment 18F-FDG PET/CT for predicting survival and recurrence in patients with advanced-stage head and neck cancer undergoing curative surgery

OBJECTIVES

Pre- and post-treatment ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT may have a prognostic role in human cancers. ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT after primary surgery for head and neck cancer might also predict survival. Therefore, we evaluated the prognostic value of post-treatment ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT in primary surgical patients with advanced-stage head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This prospective study involved 225 patients with previously untreated advanced-stage HNSCC who underwent primary surgery with or without postoperative radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy. The patients also had ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT scanning at a median 6 months after surgery. Post-treatment ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT was considered positive, based on interpretation by experienced nuclear medicine physicians with integrating clinical information. Positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) for positive ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT in association with recurrence were calculated. Predictors for positive post-treatment ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT were evaluated using binary logistic regression. Survival analysis was performed using Cox proportional hazard regression analysis.

RESULTS

PPV and NPV for post-treatment PET/CT for overall recurrence were 75.8% and 98.7%, respectively. A positive post-treatment PET/CT was an independent predictive factor for overall and disease-free survival (both P < 0.001). Five-year overall survival rates for patients with positive and negative PET/CT were 48.1% and 92.3%, respectively. Corresponding 5-year disease-free survival rates were 22.5% and 82.4%, respectively. Perineural invasion, positive resection margin, positive pathological node, and extranodal extension were the independent predictors of positive ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT (all P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Post-treatment ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT predicts survival and recurrence in patients undergoing curative surgery for advanced-stage HNSCC.

FDG-PET/CT scan assessment of response 12 weeks post radical radiotherapy in oropharynx head and neck cancer: The impact of p16 status

PURPOSE

To evaluate the predictive value of FDG-PET/CT for detection of residual disease after radical radiotherapy for patients with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the oropharynx, comparing p16 positive (+) versus p16 negative (-) disease.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

A retrospective analysis of patients with SCC of the oropharynx at our institution treated with radical radiotherapy between 2012 and 2016 was performed. The primary and lymph node metabolic responses were evaluated independently on the post-treatment FDG-PET/CT. The reference standard was pathology when available, subsequent post-treatment FDG-PET/CT results or clinical follow-up.

RESULTS

Median follow-up time was 32 (30-34) months. 556 patients had p16+ disease and 92 had p16- disease. The median time of post-treatment FDG-PET/CT was 96 (45-744) days after radiotherapy completion: 68% had complete metabolic response (CMR) defined as mild non-focal or no uptake, 10% residual primary disease, 11% residual regional lymph node disease, 5% residual primary and regional disease, and 6% distant metastatic disease. The local positive predictive value (PPV) was 26% for p16+ versus 54% for p16- (p = 0.01) and the regional PPV was 31% for p16+ versus 58% for p16- (p = 0.01). The local negative predictive value (NPV) was 100% regardless of p16 status and the regional NPV was 100% for p16+ versus 99% for p16- (p = 0.33). For p16+ cases, regional specificity was 76.2% versus 91.1% (p = 0.0003), local PPV was 0 versus 30% (p = 0.06) and the regional PPV was 12% versus 35% (p = 0.06) for FDG-PET/CT scans performed at ≤12 weeks versus >12 weeks. Five-year overall survival for those with CMR was 87% versus 51% without CMR (p ≤ 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Metabolic response on post-treatment FDG-PET/CT has excellent NPV regardless of p16 status. The PPV is significantly lower in those with p16+ versus p16- disease, with a significantly reduced regional specificity and a trend towards inferior predictive value if performed ≤12 weeks. CMR predicts for a significantly improved overall survival.

Post-radiotherapy PET/CT for predicting treatment outcomes in head and neck cancer after postoperative radiotherapy

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to retrospectively review the role of post-treatment (post-tx) FDG-PET/CT scans in patients receiving postoperative intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) for head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Eighty-two patients with HNSCC treated with surgery and postoperative IMRT with or without chemotherapy from October 15, 2008 to December 31, 2014 that had post-tx PET/CT within 6 months of completing IMRT were included. PET/CT was considered positive based on multi-disciplinary review integrating clinical information. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Categorical and continuous predictors of positive post-tx PET/CT were evaluated using Fisher's exact test and logistic regression, respectively. Predictors for survival outcomes were evaluated with log-rank testing. A p ≤ 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

Median follow-up was 3.88 years. For all patients, 3-year overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were 71.8% and 61.3%, respectively. Patients with positive post-tx PET/CT had worse OS compared to those with negative post-tx PET/CT (log rank p < 0.001). For patients with positive post-tx PET/CT, 3-year OS was 11.2% compared to 89.9% for patients with negative post-tx PET/CT. The positive predictive value (PPV) of PET/CT was 100% for local recurrence (LR), regional recurrence (RR) and distant metastasis (DM). The negative predictive values (NPV) for LR, RR and DM were 89.0%, 89.2%, and 85.9%, respectively. Perineural invasion (p = 0.009), p16 status (p = 0.009), non-oropharyngeal primary site (p = 0.002), and the use of chemotherapy (p = 0.01) were independent predictors of positive PET/CT.

CONCLUSIONS

Post-tx PET/CT after postoperative radiation is prognostic for survival outcomes. The PPV of post-tx PET for recurrence was excellent, allowing for early detection of recurrent disease. Post-tx PET/CT should be considered after postoperative radiation.