Dual-energy computed tomography for non-invasive prediction of the risk of oesophageal variceal bleeding with hepatitis B cirrhosis

Predictive value of high-risk esophageal varices in cirrhosis based on dual-energy CT combined with clinical and serologic features

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the predictive value of dual-energy CT (DECT) in combination with clinical and serologic features for noninvasive assessment of high-risk esophageal variceal (EV) in cirrhosis patients.

DATA AND METHODS

120 patients who had undergone DECT and gastroscopy were retrospectively enrolled. They were categorized into low-risk variceal (LRV) and high-risk variceal (HRV) groups by gastroscopy (LRV: none, mild, HRV: moderate, severe). Clinical data, serologic and DECT parameters were recorded respectively. Multifactorial logistic regression analyses were conducted to develop clinical, serological, DECT, and combined models. AUC was utilized to assess the diagnostic performance. Non-parametric tests were employed to analyze differences in DECT parameters among different grading of EV.

RESULTS

In clinical model, ascites was the independent risk predictor, with 78.3% accuracy,50% sensitivity, 100% specificity, and an AUC of 0.693. The serological model revealed white blood cell count, hematocrit, alanine aminotransferase, and platelet count as predictors for HRV, demonstrating 83.3% accuracy, 90.9% sensitivity, 76.9% specificity, and an AUC of 0.784. The DECT model, identified liver normalized iodine volume (NIV-L) and spleen volume (V-S) as key predictors, with 84% accuracy, 72.7% sensitivity, 92.9% specificity, and an AUC of 0.84. The combined model, integrating NIV-L, V-S, and Ascites, demonstrated superior performance with 82.6% accuracy, 90% sensitivity, 76.9% specificity, and an AUC of 0.878, compared to the other models. Additionally, severe EV had higher V-S and NIV-S values than other grades (p < 0.05), with AUC of 0.874 and 0.864, respectively.

CONCLUSION

DECT-based NIV-L, V-S, and presence of ascites can predict high-risk esophageal varices.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

Quantitative parameters of DECT can predict high-risk esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients, avoid gastroscopy, if possible, continue hierarchical management.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

retrospectively registered.

Predicting High-Risk Esophageal Varices in Cirrhosis: A Multi-Parameter Splenic CT Study

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

To explore the value of splenic hemodynamic parameters from low-dose one-stop dual-energy and perfusion CT (LD-DE&PCT) in non-invasively predicting high-risk esophageal varices (HREV) in cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed cirrhotic patients diagnosed with esophageal varices (EV) through clinical, laboratory, imaging, and endoscopic examinations from September 2021 to December 2023 in our hospital. All patients underwent LD-DE&PCT to acquire splenic iodine concentration and perfusion parameters. Radiation dose was recorded. Patients were classified into non-HREV and HREV groups based on endoscopy. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed, and the prediction model for HREV was constructed. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

Univariate analysis revealed that significant differences were found in portal iodine concentration (PIC), blood flow (BF), permeability surface (PS), spleen volume (V-S), total iodine concentration (TIC), and total blood volume of the spleen (BV-S) between groups. TIC demonstrated the highest predictive value with an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.87. Multivariate analysis showed that PIC, PS, and BV-S were independent risk factors for HREV. The logistic regression model for predicting HREV had an AUC of 0.93. The total radiation dose was 20.66 ± 4.07 mSv.

CONCLUSION

Splenic hemodynamic parameters obtained from LD-DE&PCT can non-invasively and accurately assess the hemodynamic status of the spleen in cirrhotic patients with EV and predict the occurrence of HREV. Despite the retrospective study design and limited sample size of this study, these findings deserve further validation through prospective studies with larger cohorts.

Assessment of high-risk gastroesophageal varices in cirrhotic patients using quantitative parameters from dual-source dual-energy CT

PURPOSE

To investigate the clinical value of dual-source dual-energy CT (dsDECT) quantitative parameters in evaluating hemodynamics and predicting high-risk gastroesophageal varices in cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

98 consecutive patients were collected in this prospectively study and all patients underwent an abdominal triple-phase contrasted-enhanced examination with dsDECT. Iodine concentration (IC) and normalized iodine concentration (NIC) of the liver parenchyma, spleen parenchyma and aorta at different phases were recorded, and arterial iodine fraction (AIF), iodine washout rate (IWR), and extracellular volume (ECV) were calculated. Using upper gastrointestinal endoscopy as the reference standard, patients who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria were divided into groups with varices need treatment (VNT) and non-VNT. The clinical characteristics, traditional CT features and quantitative dsDECT parameters were compared between the VNT group and the non-VNT group using univariate analysis. The binary logistics analysis was used to build a model for diagnosing VNT. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used for analysis and the DeLong test was used to compare different ROC curves.

RESULTS

Finally, 57 patients were included in this study. Univariate analysis showed statistically significant differences in NIC of the liver at the portal venous phase (NIC-LPVP), IWR of the liver (IWR-L) and spleen volume between the VNT group and the non-VNT group (p < 0.05). The mixed-CT model was built by binary logistics analysis. The ROC curves of NIC-LPVP, IWR-L, spleen volume and the mixed-CT model were statistically significant (p < 0.05) for predicting VNT in cirrhotic patients, among which the area under the ROC curve of the mixed-CT model was the highest.

CONCLUSION

Dual-source dual-energy CT has added clinical value in evaluating hepatic hemodynamics and diagnosing VNT in patients with liver cirrhosis.

Assessing the Predictive Factors for Bleeding in Esophageal Variceal Disease: A Systematic Review

Esophageal varices, dilated submucosal distal esophageal veins, are a common source of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with portal hypertension. This review aims to comprehensively assess predictive factors for both the first occurrence and subsequent risk of esophageal variceal bleeding. A systematic search was conducted in PubMed/MEDLINE (Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online) and Cochrane databases. A total of 33 studies were selected using rigorous inclusion and exclusion criteria. The risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Several predictive factors were identified for esophageal variceal bleeding, including the Child-Pugh score, Fibrosis Index, specific endoscopic findings, ultrasound parameters, portal vein diameter, presence and size of collaterals, CT scan findings, ascites, platelet counts, coagulation parameters, albumin levels, Von Willebrand Factor, bilirubin levels, diabetes mellitus, and the use of b-blocking agents in primary prophylaxis. The findings of this systematic review shed light on multiple potential predictive factors for esophageal variceal bleeding. Endoscopic findings were found to be reliable predictors. Additionally, ultrasound parameters showed associations with bleeding risk. This systematic review identifies multiple potential predictive factors for esophageal variceal bleeding in patients with portal hypertension. While certain factors exhibit strong predictive capabilities, further research is needed to refine and validate these findings, considering potential limitations and biases. This study serves as a critical resource for bridging knowledge gaps in this field.

Clinical-radiomics nomogram for predicting esophagogastric variceal bleeding risk noninvasively in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Esophagogastric variceal bleeding (EGVB) is a serious complication of patients with decompensated cirrhosis and is associated with high mortality and morbidity. Early diagnosis and screening of cirrhotic patients at risk for EGVB is crucial. Currently, there is a lack of noninvasive predictive models widely available in clinical practice.

AIM

To develop a nomogram based on clinical variables and radiomics to facilitate the noninvasive prediction of EGVB in cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

A total of 211 cirrhotic patients hospitalized between September 2017 and December 2021 were included in this retrospective study. Patients were divided into training (n = 149) and validation (n = 62) groups at a 7:3 ratio. Participants underwent three-phase computed tomography (CT) scans before endoscopy, and radiomic features were extracted from portal venous phase CT images. The independent sample t-test and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression were used to screen out the best features and establish a radiomics signature (RadScore). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine the independent predictors of EGVB in clinical settings. A noninvasive predictive nomogram for the risk of EGVB was built using independent clinical predictors and RadScore. Receiver operating characteristic, calibration, clinical decision, and clinical impact curves were applied to evaluate the model’s performance.

RESULTS

Albumin (P = 0.001), fibrinogen (P = 0.001), portal vein thrombosis (P = 0.002), aspartate aminotransferase (P = 0.001), and spleen thickness (P = 0.025) were selected as independent clinical predictors of EGVB. RadScore, constructed with five CT features of the liver region and three of the spleen regions, performed well in training (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.817) as well as in validation (AUC = 0.741) cohorts. There was excellent predictive performance in both the training and validation cohorts for the clinical-radiomics model (AUC = 0.925 and 0.912, respectively). Compared with the existing noninvasive models such as ratio of aspartate aminotransferase to platelets and Fibrosis-4 scores, our combined model had better predictive accuracy with the Delong's test less than 0.05. The Nomogram had a good fit in the calibration curve (P > 0.05), and the clinical decision curve further supported its clinical utility.

CONCLUSION

We designed and validated a clinical-radiomics nomogram able to noninvasively predict whether cirrhotic patients will develop EGVB, thus facilitating early diagnosis and treatment.

A novel model based on liver/spleen volumes and portal vein diameter on MRI to predict variceal bleeding in HBV cirrhosis

OBJECTIVE

To develop a novel logistic regression model based on liver/spleen volumes and portal vein diameter measured on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for predicting oesophagogastric variceal bleeding (OVB) secondary to HBV cirrhosis.

METHODS

One hundred eighty-five consecutive cirrhotic patients with hepatitis B undergoing abdominal contrast-enhanced MRI were randomly divided into training cohort (n = 130) and validation cohort (n = 55). Spleen volume, total liver volume, four liver lobe volumes, and diameters of portal venous system were measured on MRI. Ratios of spleen volume to total liver and to individual liver lobe volumes were calculated. In training cohort, univariate analyses and binary logistic regression analyses were to determine independent predictors. Performance of the model for predicting OVB constructed based on independent predictors from training cohort was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and was validated by Kappa test in validation cohort.

RESULTS

OVB occurred in 42 and 18 individuals in training and validation cohorts during the 2 years' follow-up, respectively. An OVB prediction model was constructed based on the independent predictors including right liver lobe volume (RV), left gastric vein diameter (LGVD) and portal vein diameter (PVD) (odds ratio = 0.993, 2.202 and 1.613, respectively; p-values < 0.001 for all). The logistic regression model equation (-0.007 × RV + 0.79 × LGVD + 0.478 × PVD-6.73) for predicting OVB obtained excellent performance with an area under ROC curve of 0.907. The excellent performance was confirmed by Kappa test with K-value of 0.802 in validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

The novel logistic regression model can be reliable for predicting OVB.

KEY POINTS

• Patients with oesophagogastric variceal bleeding are mainly characterized by decreased right lobe volume, and increased spleen volume and diameters of portal vein system. • The right liver lobe volume, left gastric vein diameter and portal vein diameter are the independent predictors of oesophagogastric variceal bleeding. • The novel model developed based on the independent predictors performed well in predicting oesophagogastric variceal bleeding with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.907.

Combinations of liver lobe and spleen volumes obtained on magnetic resonance imaging to predict esophagogastric variceal bleeding in hepatitis B-related cirrhotic patients: A prospective cohort study

To evaluate whether combinations of liver lobe and spleen volumes obtained on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) could predict esophagogastric variceal bleeding (EVB) in hepatitis B-related cirrhotic patients. Ninety-six consecutive patients with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis underwent upper abdominal contrast-enhanced MRI within 1 week after initial hospitalization, and grouped based on outcomes of EVB during the 2 years' follow-up after being discharged. Total liver volume (TLV), spleen volume (SV) and 4 liver lobe volumes including right lobe volume (RV), left medial lobe volume (LMV), left lateral lobe volume (LLV), and caudate lobe volume (CV) were measured on MRI. Percentages of individual liver lobe volumes in TLV (including RV/TLV, LMV/TLV, LLV/TLV, and CV/TLV), ratios of SV to individual liver lobe volumes (including SV/RV, SV/LMV, SV/LLV, and SV/CV), and SV/TLV were statistically analyzed to predict EVB. Patients with EVB had lower RV than without EVB (P value = .001), whereas no differences in LMV, LLV, CV, and TLV were found (P values >.05 for all). Among percentages of individual liver lobe volumes in TLV, RV/TLV was lower whereas LMV/TLV and LLV/TLV were greater in patients with EVB than without EVB (P values <.05 for all). SV, ratios of SV to individual liver lobe volumes, and SV/TLV in patients with EVB were larger than without EVB (P values <.05 for all). Among parameters with difference between patients with and without EVB, SV/RV could best predict EVB with an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.84. SV/RV could best predict EVB in hepatitis B-related cirrhotic patients.