Integrating climate change into habitat conservation plans under the U.S. endangered species act

Connecting Future Environmental Trends and Assessments of Fish and Wildlife Resources of Concern: A Case Study of Big Pine Key, Florida

Changes in hydrologic and climatic trends will influence the ecology of Florida, and climate scenarios agree that many areas of Florida are susceptible to sea-level rise impacts. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's Climate Change Action Program focuses on a framework to examine climate change effects on fish, wildlife, plants, and habitats of all three. To follow the program, this study examines how to incorporate current scientific knowledge about regional climate projections in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service analyses. It provides climate change and sea-level rise projections based on 2017 projections, information on changes in tropical cyclones, temperatures, and precipitation. This study also examines future effects of sea-level rise on existing habitat from saltwater intrusion of the freshwater lens below Big Pine Key. Projections of future sea-water elevations will periodically be reached or exceeded well before 2040 from short-term, stochastic, and extreme events (e.g., king tides and storm surge), and will increasingly inundate the root zone before complete saltwater intrusion. Future trends were connected to 2017 stakeholder-driven conversations about adaptation strategies to develop a suite of actions for creating temporary or permanent freshwater resources. However, beyond 3 ft (0.9 m) of sea-level rise, there are few adaptation options available for the Florida Key deer beyond relocations outside of the Florida Keys. Overall, the approach of connecting future environmental trends to assessments of fish and wildlife resources of concern can be transferred to other situations. Additionally, this approach can be used to update these analyses, such as with the recent 2022 sea-level rise updates by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, released after this work was conducted.

Flowering time advances since the 1970s in a sagebrush steppe community: Implications for management and restoration

Climate change is widely known to affect plant phenology, but little is known about how these impacts manifest in the widespread sagebrush ecosystem of the Western United States, which supports a number of wildlife species of concern. Shifts in plant phenology can trigger consequences for the plants themselves as well as the communities of consumers that depend upon them. We assembled historical observations of first-flowering dates for 51 species collected in the 1970s and 1980s in a montane sagebrush community in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and compared these to contemporary phenological observations targeting the same species and locations (2016-2019). We also assembled regional climate data (average spring temperature, day of spring snowmelt, and growing degree days) and tested the relationship between first-flowering time and these variables for each species. We observed the largest change in phenology in early-spring flowers, which, as a group, bloomed on average 17 days earlier, and as much as 36 days earlier, in the contemporary data set. Mid-summer flowers bloomed on average 10 days earlier, nonnative species 15 days earlier, and berry-producing shrubs 5 days earlier, while late summer flowering plants did not shift. The greatest correlates of early-spring and mid-summer flowering were average spring temperature and day of snowmelt, which was 21 days earlier, on average, in 2016-2019 relative to the 1973-1978 observations. The shifts in flowering phenology that we observed could indicate developing asynchronies or novel synchronies of these plant resources and wildlife species of conservation concern, including Greater Sage-grouse, whose nesting success is tied to availability of spring forbs; grizzly bears, which rely heavily on berries for their fall diet; and pollinators. This underscores the importance of maintaining a diverse portfolio of native plants in terms of species composition, genetics, phenological responsiveness to climatic cues, and ecological importance to key wildlife and pollinator species. Redundancy within ecological niches may also be important considering that species roles in the community may shift as climate change affects them differently. These considerations are particularly relevant to restoration and habitat-enhancement projects in sagebrush communities across western North America.

Limited gene flow and pronounced population genetic structure of Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus) in a Midwestern prairie remnant

As anthropogenic changes continue to ecologically stress wildlife, obtaining measures of gene flow and genetic diversity are crucial for evaluating population trends and considering management and conservation strategies for small, imperiled populations. In our study, we conducted a molecular assessment to expand on previous work to elucidate patterns of diversity and connectivity in the remaining disjunct Eastern Massasauga Rattlesnake (Sistrurus catenatus) hibernacula in Illinois. We assayed genetic data for 327 samples collected during 1999–2015 from the Carlyle Lake study area across 21 microsatellite loci. We found hibernacula formed distinct genetic clusters corresponding to the three main study areas (Dam Recreation Areas, Eldon Hazlet State Park, and South Shore State Park). Genetic structuring and low estimates of dispersal indicated that connectivity among these study areas is limited and each is demographically independent. Hibernacula exhibited moderate levels of heterozygosity (0.60–0.73), but estimates of effective population size (5.2–41.0) were low and track census sizes generated via long-term mark-recapture data. Hibernacula at Carlyle Lake, which represent the only Eastern Massasauga remaining in Illinois, are vulnerable to future loss of genetic diversity through lack of gene flow as well as demographic and environmental stochastic processes. Our work highlights the need to include population-level genetic data in recovery planning and suggests that recovery efforts should focus on managing the three major study areas as separate conservation units in order to preserve and maintain long-term adaptive potential of these populations. Specific management goals should include improving connectivity among hibernacula, maintaining existing wet grassland habitat, and minimizing anthropogenic sources of mortality caused by habitat management (e.g., mowing, prescribed fire) and recreational activities. Our molecular study provides additional details about demographic parameters and connectivity at Carlyle Lake that can be used to guide recovery of Eastern Massasauga in Illinois and throughout its range.

Threats to Neglected Biodiversity: Conservation Success Requires More Than Charisma

Our planet is home to an incredible array of species; however, relatively few studies have compared how anthropogenic threats impact taxonomic groups over time. Our objective was to identify temporal trends in threats facing the four most speciose phyla protected by the United States Endangered Species Act: angiosperms, arthropods, chordates, and mollusks. We determined presence or absence of threats for each species in these phyla by reviewing Final Rule listing decisions. For each phylum, we evaluated whether there was a linear, quadratic, or pseudo-threshold association between year of listing and the presence of 24 anthropogenic threats. We identified temporal trends for 80% of the 96 threat-phylum combinations. We classified threats as topmost (probability of being included in a species' listing decision peaking at ≥ 0.81) and escalating (probability of being included in a listing decision increasing by ≥ 0.81 between a species' first and most recent years of listing). Angiosperms, arthropods, and mollusks each had more topmost and escalating threats than chordates. Percentages of topmost threats were 42.9% (N = 21) for mollusks, 36.4% (N = 22) for angiosperms, and 33.3% (N = 21) for arthropods. Percentages of escalating threats were 22.7% (N = 22) for angiosperms and 14.3% (N = 21) for arthropods and mollusks. In contrast, percentages of topmost and escalating threats were only 4.2% (N = 24) for chordates, this one threat being climate change. Our research suggests potential conservation successes; some overutilization and pollution threats showed only gradually increasing or declining trends for certain phyla. We identified authorized take impacting angiosperms as the sole threat-phylum combination for which the threat had been consistently decreasing since the phylum's first year of listing. Conversely, species interactions, environmental stochasticity, and demographic stochasticity threats have seen drastic increases across all phyla; we suggest conservation efforts focus on these areas of increasing concern. We also recommend that resources be allocated to phyla with numerous topmost and escalating threats, not just to chordates.

Biodiversity Offset Program Design and Implementation

Biodiversity offsets are applied in many countries to compensate for impacts on the environment, but research on regulatory frameworks and implementation enabling effective offsets is lacking. This paper reviews research on biodiversity offsets, providing a framework for the analysis of program design (no net loss goal, uncertainty and ratios, equivalence and accounting, site selection, landscape-scale mitigation planning, timing) and implementation (compliance, adherence to the mitigation hierarchy, leakage and trade-offs, oversight, transparency and monitoring). Some more challenging aspects concern the proper metrics and accounting allowing for program evaluation, as well as the consideration of trade-offs when regulations focus only on the biodiversity aspect of ecosystems. Results can be used to assess offsets anywhere and support the creation of programs that balance development and conservation.

Scaling up the diversity-resilience relationship with trait databases and remote sensing data: the recovery of productivity after wildfire

Understanding the mechanisms underlying ecosystem resilience - why some systems have an irreversible response to disturbances while others recover - is critical for conserving biodiversity and ecosystem function in the face of global change. Despite the widespread acceptance of a positive relationship between biodiversity and resilience, empirical evidence for this relationship remains fairly limited in scope and localized in scale. Assessing resilience at the large landscape and regional scales most relevant to land management and conservation practices has been limited by the ability to measure both diversity and resilience over large spatial scales. Here, we combined tools used in large-scale studies of biodiversity (remote sensing and trait databases) with theoretical advances developed from small-scale experiments to ask whether the functional diversity within a range of woodland and forest ecosystems influences the recovery of productivity after wildfires across the four-corner region of the United States. We additionally asked how environmental variation (topography, macroclimate) across this geographic region influences such resilience, either directly or indirectly via changes in functional diversity. Using path analysis, we found that functional diversity in regeneration traits (fire tolerance, fire resistance, resprout ability) was a stronger predictor of the recovery of productivity after wildfire than the functional diversity of seed mass or species richness. Moreover, slope, elevation, and aspect either directly or indirectly influenced the recovery of productivity, likely via their effect on microclimate, while macroclimate had no direct or indirect effects. Our study provides some of the first direct empirical evidence for functional diversity increasing resilience at large spatial scales. Our approach highlights the power of combining theory based on local-scale studies with tools used in studies at large spatial scales and trait databases to understand pressing environmental issues.

The rise of novelty in ecosystems

Rapid and ongoing change creates novelty in ecosystems everywhere, both when comparing contemporary systems to their historical baselines, and predicted future systems to the present. However, the level of novelty varies greatly among places. Here we propose a formal and quantifiable definition of abiotic and biotic novelty in ecosystems, map abiotic novelty globally, and discuss the implications of novelty for the science of ecology and for biodiversity conservation. We define novelty as the degree of dissimilarity of a system, measured in one or more dimensions relative to a reference baseline, usually defined as either the present or a time window in the past. In this conceptualization, novelty varies in degree, it is multidimensional, can be measured, and requires a temporal and spatial reference. This definition moves beyond prior categorical definitions of novel ecosystems, and does not include human agency, self-perpetuation, or irreversibility as criteria. Our global assessment of novelty was based on abiotic factors (temperature, precipitation, and nitrogen deposition) plus human population, and shows that there are already large areas with high novelty today relative to the early 20th century, and that there will even be more such areas by 2050. Interestingly, the places that are most novel are often not the places where absolute changes are largest; highlighting that novelty is inherently different from change. For the ecological sciences, highly novel ecosystems present new opportunities to test ecological theories, but also challenge the predictive ability of ecological models and their validation. For biodiversity conservation, increasing novelty presents some opportunities, but largely challenges. Conservation action is necessary along the entire continuum of novelty, by redoubling efforts to protect areas where novelty is low, identifying conservation opportunities where novelty is high, developing flexible yet strong regulations and policies, and establishing long-term experiments to test management approaches. Meeting the challenge of novelty will require advances in the science of ecology, and new and creative. conservation approaches.

A framework to integrate habitat monitoring and restoration with endangered insect recovery

Monitoring is essential to track the long-term recovery of endangered species. Greater emphasis on habitat monitoring is especially important for taxa whose populations may be difficult to quantify (e.g., insects) or when true recovery (delisting) requires continuous species-specific habitat management. In this paper, we outline and implement a standardized framework to facilitate the integration of habitat monitoring with species recovery efforts. The framework has five parts: (1) identify appropriate sample units, (2) select measurable indicators of habitat requirements, (3) determine rating categories for these indicators, (4) design and implement appropriate data collection protocols, and (5) synthesize the ratings into an overall measure of habitat potential. Following these steps, we developed a set of recovery criteria to estimate habitat potential and initially assess restoration activities in the context of recovering an endangered insect, the Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis). We recommend basing the habitat potential grading scheme on recovery plan criteria, the latest information on species biology, and working hypotheses as needed. The habitat-based assessment framework helps to identify which recovery areas and habitat patches are worth investing in and what type of site-specific restoration work is needed. We propose that the transparency and decision-making process in endangered insect recovery efforts could be improved through adaptive management that explicitly identifies and tracks progress toward habitat objectives and ultimate population recovery.

Fire management, managed relocation, and land conservation options for long-lived obligate seeding plants under global changes in climate, urbanization, and fire regime

Most species face multiple anthropogenic disruptions. Few studies have quantified the cumulative influence of multiple threats on species of conservation concern, and far fewer have quantified the potential relative value of multiple conservation interventions in light of these threats. We linked spatial distribution and population viability models to explore conservation interventions under projected climate change, urbanization, and changes in fire regime on a long-lived obligate seeding plant species sensitive to high fire frequencies, a dominant plant functional type in many fire-prone ecosystems, including the biodiversity hotspots of Mediterranean-type ecosystems. First, we investigated the relative risk of population decline for plant populations in landscapes with and without land protection under an existing habitat conservation plan. Second, we modeled the effectiveness of relocating both seedlings and seeds from a large patch with predicted declines in habitat area to 2 unoccupied recipient patches with increasing habitat area under 2 projected climate change scenarios. Finally, we modeled 8 fire return intervals (FRIs) approximating the outcomes of different management strategies that effectively control fire frequency. Invariably, long-lived obligate seeding populations remained viable only when FRIs were maintained at or above a minimum level. Land conservation and seedling relocation efforts lessened the impact of climate change and land-use change on obligate seeding populations to differing degrees depending on the climate change scenario, but neither of these efforts was as generally effective as frequent translocation of seeds. While none of the modeled strategies fully compensated for the effects of land-use and climate change, an integrative approach managing multiple threats may diminish population declines for species in complex landscapes. Conservation plans designed to mitigate the impacts of a single threat are likely to fail if additional threats are ignored.

Incorporating climate science in applications of the US endangered species act for aquatic species

Aquatic species are threatened by climate change but have received comparatively less attention than terrestrial species. We gleaned key strategies for scientists and managers seeking to address climate change in aquatic conservation planning from the literature and existing knowledge. We address 3 categories of conservation effort that rely on scientific analysis and have particular application under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA): assessment of overall risk to a species; long-term recovery planning; and evaluation of effects of specific actions or perturbations. Fewer data are available for aquatic species to support these analyses, and climate effects on aquatic systems are poorly characterized. Thus, we recommend scientists conducting analyses supporting ESA decisions develop a conceptual model that links climate, habitat, ecosystem, and species response to changing conditions and use this model to organize analyses and future research. We recommend that current climate conditions are not appropriate for projections used in ESA analyses and that long-term projections of climate-change effects provide temporal context as a species-wide assessment provides spatial context. In these projections, climate change should not be discounted solely because the magnitude of projected change at a particular time is uncertain when directionality of climate change is clear. Identifying likely future habitat at the species scale will indicate key refuges and potential range shifts. However, the risks and benefits associated with errors in modeling future habitat are not equivalent. The ESA offers mechanisms for increasing the overall resilience and resistance of species to climate changes, including establishing recovery goals requiring increased genetic and phenotypic diversity, specifying critical habitat in areas not currently occupied but likely to become important, and using adaptive management. Incorporación de las Ciencias Climáticas en las Aplicaciones del Acta Estadunidense de Especies en Peligro para Especies Acuáticas.

Climate change, marine environments, and the US Endangered species act

Climate change is expected to be a top driver of global biodiversity loss in the 21st century. It poses new challenges to conserving and managing imperiled species, particularly in marine and estuarine ecosystems. The use of climate-related science in statutorily driven species management, such as under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA), is in its early stages. This article provides an overview of ESA processes, with emphasis on the mandate to the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) to manage listed marine, estuarine, and anadromous species. Although the ESA is specific to the United States, its requirements are broadly relevant to conservation planning. Under the ESA, species, subspecies, and "distinct population segments" may be listed as either endangered or threatened, and taking of most listed species (harassing, harming, pursuing, wounding, killing, or capturing) is prohibited unless specifically authorized via a case-by-case permit process. Government agencies, in addition to avoiding take, must ensure that actions they fund, authorize, or conduct are not likely to jeopardize a listed species' continued existence or adversely affect designated critical habitat. Decisions for which climate change is likely to be a key factor include: determining whether a species should be listed under the ESA, designating critical habitat areas, developing species recovery plans, and predicting whether effects of proposed human activities will be compatible with ESA-listed species' survival and recovery. Scientific analyses that underlie these critical conservation decisions include risk assessment, long-term recovery planning, defining environmental baselines, predicting distribution, and defining appropriate temporal and spatial scales. Although specific guidance is still evolving, it is clear that the unprecedented changes in global ecosystems brought about by climate change necessitate new information and approaches to conservation of imperiled species. El Cambio Climático, los Ecosistemas Marinos y el Acta Estadunidense de Especies en Peligro.