The Impact of Accounting for Future Wood Production in Global Vertebrate Biodiversity Assessments

Managing Forests for Biodiversity Conservation and Climate Change Mitigation

We include biodiversity impacts in forest management decision making by incorporating the countryside species area relationship model into the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM-Forest. We tested three forest management intensities (low, medium, and high) and limited biodiversity loss via an additional constraint on regional species loss. We analyzed two scenarios for climate change mitigation. RCP1.9, the higher mitigation scenario, has more biodiversity loss than the reference RCP7.0, suggesting a trade-off between climate change mitigation, with increased bioenergy use, and biodiversity conservation in forests. This trade-off can be alleviated with biodiversity-conscious forest management by (1) shifting biomass production destined to bioenergy from forests to energy crops, (2) increasing areas under unmanaged secondary forest, (3) reducing forest management intensity, and (4) reallocating biomass production between and within regions. With these mechanisms, it is possible to reduce potential global biodiversity loss by 10% with minor changes in economic outcomes. The global aggregated reduction in biodiversity impacts does not imply that biodiversity impacts are reduced in each ecoregion. We exemplify how to connect an ecologic and an economic model to identify trade-offs, challenges, and possibilities for improved decisions. We acknowledge the limitations of this approach, especially of measuring and projecting biodiversity loss.

The impact of the German timber footprint on potential species loss in supply regions

Previous own assessments have shown that a) Germany has a wood consumption above global average, b) is strongly dependent on imports and c) has a domestic roundwood production that is at the limit of the sustainable harvest potential. Thereby Germany further increases the pressures on global forests which are already stressed by climate-change related impacts and a continuously growing global demand for wood. This leads to negative impacts on the biodiversity in the areas where wood is harvested. This paper aims to show the connection between Germany's timber consumption footprint and the impact on the biodiversity in the regions where the roundwood is sourced. A two-step process is used. In the first step, high-resolution land cover and land use maps are used as a basis for the countryside species-area relationship model, assessing the projected loss of the four taxa amphibians, birds, mammals and reptiles in relation to undisturbed natural ecosystems due to forests occupied for roundwood production. In the second step, roundwood equivalents consumed in Germany in 2015 are traced back to the region of origin using an environmentally-extended input-output analysis and the thereby induced potential species loss is calculated. We show that the highest impact on projected species richness loss caused by roundwood logging is taking place in Oceania (3.34E-03 species/m3), Carribean (1.56E-04 species/m3), and East Asia (1.43E-04 species/m3). German roundwood consumption has the highest projected species loss in the United States (7.4 species), followed by China (7.3 species) and Brazil (4.8 species). From a biodiversity impact perspective, Germany could theoretically reduce its impact by relocating imports to European countries. In view of the planetary boundary of sustainable roundwood consumption, which has already been exceeded, reducing consumption appears to be the only viable long-term option for high-consumption countries such as Germany to reduce negative impacts on global biodiversity.

Can Forest Management Practices Counteract Species Loss Arising from Increasing European Demand for Forest Biomass under Climate Mitigation Scenarios?

Forests are home to many species and provide biomass for material and energy. Here, we modeled the potential global species extinction risk from future scenarios of climate mitigation and EU28 forest management. We considered the continuation of current practices, the adoption of closer-to-nature management (low-intensity practices), and set-asides (conversion to unharvested forestland) on portions of EU28 forestland under two climate mitigation pathways as well as the consequences for the wood trade. Expanding set-aside to more than 25% of EU28 currently managed forestland by 2100 increased the global extinction risk compared to the continuation of current practices. This outcome stems from a projected increase in EU forest biomass imports, partially from biodiversity-vulnerable regions to compensate for a decrease in domestic harvest. Conversely, closer-to-nature management on up to 37.5% of EU28 forestland lowered extinction risks. Increasing the internal production and partially sourcing imported biomass from low-intensity managed areas lowered the species extinction footprint even further. However, low-intensity practices could not entirely compensate for the increased extinction risk under a high climate mitigation scenario with greater demand for lignocellulosic crops and energywood. When developing climate mitigation strategies, it is crucial to assess forest biomass supply chains for the early detection of extinction risks in non-EU regions and for developing strategies to prevent increase of global impacts.

Between Biodiversity Conservation and the Supply for Broadleaved Wood: A Case Study of State Forests National Forest Holding (Poland)

Climate change is an important issue that increasingly affects our lives. One of the proposals for mitigating climate change is fighting biodiversity loss, which can support climate mitigation and adaptation actions. In Poland, the possibility of excluding large tracts of forest areas from use is being considered. The discussed the exclusion of forest land from use will affect the timber supply and market, especially for broadleaved wood. The main purpose of this analysis is to present a timber supply forecast, with a particular focus on the possibility of obtaining broadleaved hardwood timber in Poland from forests managed by State Forests National Forest Holding under three scenarios that assume different criteria for selecting forest areas for protection. The work was divided into two main phases: (1) the analysis of historical sales volume of wood products and average sale prices of hardwood during the period 2011–2020; (2) the preparation of a forecast of the potential possibility of maintaining broadleaved hardwood production in the three decades between 2020 and 2049. In the forecast, it was assumed that about 2.7 million hectares of planted and production forests are excluded from use in order to implement the provisions of the 2030 Biodiversity Strategy. In Scenario “I”, the supply of merchantable broadleaved roundwood volume will be reduced to 14%–18% that of Scenario “0”. In Scenario “II”, 55% of the “0” scenario is harvested, and in Scenario “III”, 33%–37% of the “0” scenario merchantable broadleaved roundwood is harvested. The introduction of restrictions on timber harvesting as a result of Poland’s compliance with European Union requirements in the area of environmental protection will lead to a significant reduction in the supply of timber on the market. This may lead to a further increase in timber prices and an increase in the importance of large timber buyers at the expense of local buyers. The recommendations contained in the policy objectives that the EU sets for the states should be supported by a thorough analysis when selecting areas for strict protection.

Representing responses to climate change in spatial land system models

Modelling future change to land use and land cover is done as part of many local and global scenario environmental assessments. Nevertheless, there are still considerable challenges related to simulating land-use responses to climate change. Mostly, climate change is considered by changing the temperature and precipitation, affecting the spatial distribution and productivity of future land use and land cover as result of differential changes in growing conditions. Other climate change effects, such as changes in the water resources needed to support future cropland expansion and intensification, are often neglected. In this study, we demonstrate how including different types of responses to climate change influences the simulation of future changes to land use and land cover, and land management. We study the influence of including different climate change effects in land system modeling step by step. The results show that land system models need to include numerous simultaneous climate change effects, particularly when looking at adaptation options such as implementing irrigation. Otherwise, there is a risk of biased impact estimates leading either to under- or overestimation of the consequences of land use change, including land degradation. Spatial land system models therefore need to be developed accounting for a multitude of climate change impacts, uncertainties related to climate data, and an assessment of the sensitivity of the outcomes toward the decisions of modellers on representing climate change impacts.