The Clinical Risk Score Predicts the Effectiveness of Adjuvant Chemotherapy for Colorectal Liver Metastasis

Optimal policy tree to assist in adjuvant therapy decision-making after resection of colorectal liver metastases

BACKGROUND

Although systemic postoperative therapy after surgery for colorectal liver metastases is generally recommended, the benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy has been debated. We used machine learning to develop a decision tree and define which patients may benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy after hepatectomy for colorectal liver metastases.

METHODS

Patients who underwent curative-intent resection for colorectal liver metastases between 2000 and 2020 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. An optimal policy tree analysis was used to determine the optimal assignment of the adjuvant chemotherapy to subgroups of patients for overall survival and recurrence-free survival.

RESULTS

Among 1,358 patients who underwent curative-intent resection of colorectal liver metastases, 1,032 (76.0%) received adjuvant chemotherapy. After a median follow-up of 28.7 months (interquartile range 13.7-52.0), 5-year overall survival was 67.5%, and 3-year recurrence-free survival was 52.6%, respectively. Adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with better recurrence-free survival (3-year recurrence-free survival: adjuvant chemotherapy, 54.4% vs no adjuvant chemotherapy, 46.8%; P < .001) but no overall survival significant improvement (5-year overall survival: adjuvant chemotherapy, 68.1% vs no adjuvant chemotherapy, 65.7%; P = .15). Patients were randomly allocated into 2 cohorts (training data set, n = 679, testing data set, n = 679). The random forest model demonstrated good performance in predicting counterfactual probabilities of death and recurrence relative to receipt of adjuvant chemotherapy. According to the optimal policy tree, patient demographics, secondary tumor characteristics, and primary tumor characteristics defined the subpopulation that would benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy.

CONCLUSION

A novel artificial intelligence methodology based on patient, primary tumor, and treatment characteristics may help clinicians tailor adjuvant chemotherapy recommendations after colorectal liver metastases resection.

Postoperative Chemotherapy After Surgical Resection of Metachronous Metastases of Colorectal Cancer: A Systematic Review

Currently, 6 months of perioperative or adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) is a standard treatment option after radical surgical removal of metachronous metastases in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC). Data show that ACT improves relapse-free survival in such patients, although no difference in overall survival rate was observed. We perform a systematic review to evaluate the efficacy of adjuvant chemotherapy after radical resection of metachronous metastases in CRC.

The Pathologic Complete Response Ratio of Liver Metastases Represents a Valuable Prognostic Indicator

Background and Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of the pathologic complete response ratio of liver metastases (PCRRLM) in predicting the prognosis and recurrence of colorectal cancer liver metastases (CRLM).

Methods: A total of 305 CRLM patients who underwent preoperative chemotherapy followed by hepatectomy were included. PCRRLM was defined as the number of liver metastases exhibiting pathologic complete response (PCR) divided by the number of total resected liver metastases. The Kaplan–Meier method was used to calculate survival, and differences were examined by the log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the predictors of PCRRLM, recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS).

Results: Among the 305 included patients, 44 (14.4%) achieved a PCRRLM ≥0.50 (including PCRRLM = 1), and 261 (85.6%) achieved a PCRRLM <0.50 (including PCRRLM = 0). Patients of an older age (≥55 years old) and those with higher carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels (≥5 ng/ml) were less likely to achieve a PCRRLM ≥0.50. In the multivariate analysis, PCRRLM≥ 0.50 (vs. < 0.50, HR [95% CI]: 0.67 [0.46–0.99], p = 0.043) was associated with better RFS. Positive lymph node status (vs. negative, HR [95% CI]: 1.46 [1.04–2.05], p = 0.028) and TBS ≥5 (vs. < 5, HR [95% CI]: 1.44 [1.02–2.04], p = 0.038) were associated with worse RFS.

Conclusion: PCRRLM was significantly associated with long-term RFS after preoperative chemotherapy and CRLM resection. Thus, it may be a valuable indicator of recurrence in CRLM patients.

Long-term survival in colorectal liver metastasis

INTRODUCTION

Liver resection is the best treatment option for patients with resectable colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM). A 10-year follow-up can reflect the true curative potential of resection. This retrospective study investigated factors for long-term survival of CRLM patients.

METHOD

Data of patients who underwent liver resection for CRLM without extrahepatic disease from 1990 to 2012 at our hospital were reviewed. Patients who survived for > 10 years were compared with those who survived for < 10 years.

RESULTS

Totally, 315 patients were included in the study. They were divided into 2 groups: < 10-year group and > 10-year group. Patients in the < 10-year group had more tumor nodules (P = 0.016), more bilobar involvement (P = 0.004), narrower resection margin (P < 0.001), and worse disease-free and overall survival (P < 0.001). On multivariate analysis, low preoperative hemoglobin level, large number of tumor nodules, and bilobar involvement were poor prognostic factors for overall survival, while adjuvant chemotherapy was a favorable factor. Further analysis of patients with bilobar disease showed that perioperative blood transfusion was a poor prognostic factor for overall survival while adjuvant chemotherapy was a favorable one. In patients with multiple bilobar tumor nodules, adjuvant chemotherapy had a positive impact on disease-free survival and overall survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients who survived for > 10 years after liver resection for CRLM tended to have normal preoperative hemoglobin level, unilobar disease, fewer tumor nodules, and have received adjuvant chemotherapy. Adjuvant chemotherapy favorably affected long-term survival of CRLM patients.

Effect of tumour size ratio on liver recurrence-free survival of patients undergoing hepatic resection for colorectal liver metastases

Background

The study aimed to assess the impact of size differences of multiple liver metastases on liver recurrence-free survival (RFS) in patients undergoing hepatic resection for colorectal liver metastases (CRLMs).

Methods

Overall, 147 patients with CRLMs who underwent hepatic resection between January 2010 and December 2016 were retrospectively analysed. Tumour size ratio (TSR) was defined as the maximum diameter of the largest liver lesion over the maximum diameter of the smallest liver lesion. The univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine independent prognostic risk factors. The prognostic value of the TSR was further explored in each Tumour Burden Score (TBS) zone. Log-rank survival analyses were used to compare liver RFS in the new clinical score and the Fong clinical score.

Results

Based on the TSR, patients were classified into three groups: TSR < 2, 2 ≤ TSR < 4, and TSR ≥ 4. According to the multivariate analysis, TSR of 2–4 (hazard ratio [HR], 2.580; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.543–4.312; P < 0.001) and TSR < 2 (HR, 4.435; 95% CI 2.499–7.872; P < 0.001) were associated with worse liver RFS. As TSR decreased, liver RFS worsened. TSR could further stratify patients in zones 1 and 2 into different risk groups according to the TBS criteria (zone 1: median liver RFS, 3.2 and 8.9 months for groups 1 and 2, respectively, P = 0.003; zone 2: median liver RFS, 3.5, 5.0, and 10.9 months for groups 1, 2, and 3, respectively, P < 0.05). The predictive ability of the new clinical score, which includes TSR, was superior to that of the Fong clinical score.

Conclusions

TSR, as a prognostic tool, could accurately assess the effect of size differences across multiple liver metastases on liver RFS in patients undergoing hepatectomy for CRLMs.

Trial registration

Retrospectively registered

Prognostic value of a novel biomarker combining DNA ploidy and tumor burden score for initially resectable liver metastases from patients with colorectal cancer

Background

Colorectal cancer liver metastases (CRLM) has not been identified as a unified disease entity due to the differences in the severity of metastatic disease and tumor aggressiveness. A screen for specific prognostic risk subgroups is urgently needed. The current study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of DNA ploidy, stroma fraction and nucleotyping of initially resectable liver metastases from patients with CRLM.

Methods

One hundred thirty-nine consecutive patients with initially resectable CRLM who underwent curative liver resection from 2006 to 2018 at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center were selected for analysis. DNA ploidy, stroma fraction and nucleotyping of liver metastases were evaluated using automated digital imaging systems. Recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression models.

Results

DNA ploidy was identified as an independent prognostic factor for RFS (HR, 2.082; 95% CI 1.053–4.115; P = 0.035) in the multivariate analysis, while stroma-tumor fraction and nucleotyping were not significant prognostic factors. A significant difference in 3-year RFS was observed among the low-, moderate- and high-risk groups stratified by a novel parameter combined with the tumor burden score (TBS) and DNA ploidy (72.5% vs. 63.2% vs. 37.3%, P = 0.007). The high-risk group who received adjuvant chemotherapy had a significantly better 3-year RFS rate than those without adjuvant chemotherapy (46.7% vs. 24.8%; P = 0.034).

Conclusions

Our study showed that DNA ploidy of liver metastases is an independent prognostic factor for patients with initially resectable CRLM after liver resection. The combination of DNA ploidy and TBS may help to stratify patients into different recurrence risk groups and may guide postoperative treatment among the patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12935-021-02250-x.

Is there a survival benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy for patients with liver oligometastases from colorectal cancer after curative resection?

Background

Although colorectal oligometastases to the liver can potentially be cured with aggressive local ablation, the efficacy of adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) for such metastasis remains unclear. The present study explored the effects of ACT on patients with colorectal liver oligometastases (CLO) after curative resections and aimed to identify patients who could benefit from ACT.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed 264 eligible patients with CLO who underwent curative resection between September 1999 and June 2015. Recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed using the Kaplan–Meier method and log-rank test; prognostic factors were a by Cox regression modeling.

Results

Among 264 patients, 200 (75.8%) patients received ACT and 64 (24.2%) did not receive ACT. These two groups did not significantly differ in clinicopathologic characteristics, and had comparable 3-year OS and RFS rates (RFS: 42.1% vs. 45.7%, P = 0.588; OS: 69.7% vs. 62.7%, P = 0.446) over a median follow-up duration of 35.5 months, irrespective of preoperative chemotherapy. ACT markedly improved 3-year OS in high-risk patients with Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center clinical risk scores (MSKCC-CRS) of 3–5 (68.2% vs. 33.8%, P = 0.015), but presented no additional benefit in patients with MSKCC-CRS of 0–2 (72.2% vs. 78.6%, P = 0.834). In multivariate analysis, ACT was independently associated with improved OS in patients with MSKCC-CRS of 3–5.

Conclusions

ACT might offer a prognostic benefit in high-risk patients with CLOs after curative liver resection, but not in low-risk patients. Therefore, patients’ risk status should be determined before ACT administration to optimize postoperative therapeutic strategies.

Histopathological variables in liver metastases of patients with stage IV colorectal cancer: potential prognostic relevance of poorly differentiated clusters

The prognosis of patients with colorectal liver metastases (LMs) is mostly established on clinical variables or on the anatomic extent of colorectal cancer (CRC). Histopathological factors of LMs which may actually reflect the biological aggressiveness of the tumor are not routinely considered to define the risk of worse clinical outcome in those patients. The number of poorly differentiated clusters (PDCs) of neoplastic cells in primary CRC is associated with metastatic risk and bad prognosis, but PDC presence in LMs has been barely analyzed thus far. We assessed PDC presence in the histological slides of surgically resected and synchronous LMs in 63 patients with CRC who had been not submitted to any neoadjuvant treatments. Then, we analyzed its association with patients' cancer-specific survival (CSS) or progression-free survival. The presence of PDCs (P = .016) and PDC localization at tumor edge of LMs (P = .0004) were significantly associated with shorter CSS. PDC presence at the periphery of LMs and positive resection margin were independent prognostic variables for CSS. PDC localization at the tumor edge of LMs was a significant (P = .0079) and independent prognosticator of shorter progression-free survival. Our data suggest that PDC presence and peripheral localization in LMs may be relevant to predict outcome and useful for clinical decision making in patients with colorectal synchronous LMs.

Genetic And Morphological Evaluation (GAME) score for patients with colorectal liver metastases

BACKGROUND

This study sought to develop a clinical risk score for resectable colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) by combining clinicopathological and clinically available biological indicators, including KRAS.

METHODS

A cohort of patients who underwent resection for CRLM at the Johns Hopkins Hospital (JHH) was analysed to identify independent predictors of overall survival (OS) that can be assessed before operation; these factors were combined into the Genetic And Morphological Evaluation (GAME) score. The score was compared with the current standard (Fong score) and validated in an external cohort of patients from the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC).

RESULTS

Six preoperative predictors of worse OS were identified on multivariable Cox regression analysis in the JHH cohort (502 patients). The GAME score was calculated by allocating points to each patient according to the presence of these predictive factors: KRAS-mutated tumours (1 point); carcinoembryonic antigen level 20 ng/ml or more (1 point), primary tumour lymph node metastasis (1 point); Tumour Burden Score between 3 and 8 (1 point) or 9 and over (2 points); and extrahepatic disease (2 points). The high-risk group in the JHH cohort (GAME score at least 4 points) had a 5-year OS rate of 11 per cent, compared with 73·4 per cent for those in the low-risk group (score 0-1 point). Importantly, in cohorts from both the JHH and MSKCC (747 patients), the discriminatory capacity of the GAME score was superior to that of the Fong score, as demonstrated by the C-index and the Akaike information criterion.

CONCLUSION

The GAME score is a preoperative prognostic tool that can be used to inform treatment selection.

Survival prediction in patients with resectable colorectal liver metastases: Clinical risk scores and tumor response to chemotherapy

Clinical risk scores and response to pre-operative chemotherapy are prognostic factors of colorectal liver metastases. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effectiveness of combining these factors to predict patient survival and to select patients for curative therapy. The study included 189 patients who underwent hepatectomy following neo-adjuvant chemotherapy, for initially resectable colorectal liver metastases, between January 2005 and December 2015. Patients were stratified into four sub-groups: A1-2, low clinical risk scores with/without a response to pre-operative chemotherapy; and B1-2, high clinical risk scores with or without a response to pre-operative chemotherapy. Treatment and survival data were analysed. Survival was significantly longer in patients with low clinical risk scores and a response to pre-operative chemotherapy; these factors were confirmed as independent prognostic factors by multivariate analysis. Combining clinical risk score and chemotherapy response classification, patient survival was significantly longer for groups A1-2/B1 compared with for group B2, in which only 10.2% of patients were alive after 5 years. Of those with no response to first-line chemotherapy, survival was significantly longer in patients who responded to second-line chemotherapy. A combined clinical risk score and chemotherapy response classification may aid in identifying suitable candidates for potentially curative therapy.