Success, failure, and spreading speeds for invasions on spatial gradients

Spread and persistence for integro-difference equations with shifting habitat and strong Allee effect

We study an integro-difference equation model that describes the spatial dynamics of a species with a strong Allee effect in a shifting habitat. We examine the case of a shifting semi-infinite bad habitat connected to a semi-infinite good habitat. In this case we rigorously establish species persistence (non-persistence) if the habitat shift speed is less (greater) than the asymptotic spreading speed of the species in the good habitat. We also examine the case of a finite shifting patch of hospitable habitat, and find that the habitat shift speed must be less than the asymptotic spreading speed associated with the habitat and there is a critical patch size for species persistence. Spreading speeds and traveling waves are established to address species persistence. Our numerical simulations demonstrate the theoretical results and show the dependence of the critical patch size on the shift speed.

Sex difference and Allee effects shape the dynamics of sex-structured invasions

The rate at which a population grows and spreads can depend on individual behaviour and interactions with others. In many species with two sexes, males and females differ in key life-history traits (e.g. growth, survival and dispersal), which can scale up to affect population rates of growth and spread. In sexually reproducing species, the mechanics of locating mates and reproducing successfully introduce further complications for predicting the invasion speed (spread rate), as both can change nonlinearly with density. Most models of population spread are based on one sex, or include limited aspects of sex differences. Here we ask whether and how the dynamics of finding mates interact with sex-specific life-history traits to influence the rate of population spread. We present a hybrid approach for modelling invasions of populations with two sexes that links individual-level mating behaviour (in an individual-based model) to population-level dynamics (in an integrodifference equation model). We find that limiting the amount of time during which individuals can search for mates causes a demographic Allee effect which can slow, delay, or even prevent an invasion. Furthermore, any sex-based asymmetries in life history or behaviour (skewed sex ratio, sex-biased dispersal, and sex-specific mating behaviours) amplify these effects. In contrast, allowing individuals to mate more than once ameliorates these effects, enabling polygynandrous populations to invade under conditions where monogamously mating populations would fail to establish. We show that details of individuals' mating behaviour can impact the rate of population spread. Based on our results, we propose a stricter definition of a mate-finding Allee effect, which is not met by the commonly used minimum mating function. Our modelling approach, which links individual- and population-level dynamics in a single model, may be useful for exploring other aspects of individual behaviour that are thought to impact the rate of population spread.

Persistence and Spreading Speeds of Integro-Difference Equations with an Expanding or Contracting Habitat

We study an integro-difference equation model that describes the spatial dynamics of a species in an expanding or contracting habitat. We give conditions under which the species disperses to a region of poor quality where the species eventually becomes extinct. We show that when the species persists in the habitat, the rightward and leftward spreading speeds are determined by c, the speed at which the habitat quality increases or decreases in time, as well as [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and [Formula: see text], which are formulated in terms of the dispersal kernel and species growth rates in both directions. We demonstrate that in the case that the species grows everywhere in space, the rightward spreading speed is [Formula: see text] if c is relatively small and is [Formula: see text] if c is large, and the leftward spreading speed is one of [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], or [Formula: see text]. We also show that it is possible for a solution to form a two-layer wave, with the propagation speeds of the two layers analytically determined.