Predictive parameters for the clinical course of Crohn's disease: development of a simple and reliable risk model

Modifiable Factors Influencing Disease Flares in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Literature Overview of Lifestyle, Psychological, and Environmental Risk Factors

Background: A significant concern for patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) is predicting and managing disease flares. While healthcare providers rely on biomarkers, providing conclusive patient advice remains challenging. This review explores the role of lifestyle, psychological health, and environmental exposures in the prediction and management of IBD flares. Methods: This review followed PRISMA guidelines (2020). A structured search was conducted in PubMed for articles published between 2012 and 2024, using free and Medical Subject Heading (MeSH) terms for predicting factors in IBD. Inclusion criteria included studies reporting primary data on modifiable clinical or environmental predictors of IBD relapse, excluding studies on post-operative investigations, treatment cessation, and pediatric or pregnant populations. The Mixed Method Appraisal Tool (MMAT) was used to assess the quality of the studies. Results: Out of 2287 identified citations, 58 articles were included. Several modifiable factors influencing disease flares were identified, including psychological stress, sleep disturbances, smoking, and nutrition. Poor sleep quality and mental health were linked to increased flare risks, while smoking was associated with higher relapse rates in Crohn's disease. Environmental exposures, such as heat waves and high-altitude regions, also contributed. Predictive models integrating clinical, lifestyle, and psychological factors showed promising accuracy but require further refinement. Limitations of this review include the potential for publication bias, variability in flare definitions, and limited sample sizes Conclusions: Key predictors of IBD flares include dietary factors, psychological stress, poor sleep quality, and pharmacological influences. Personalized approaches integrating these predictors can optimize disease control and improve patient outcomes.

Prioritization in inflammatory bowel disease therapy

INTRODUCTION

Most guidelines for IBD still recommend step-by-step therapy with initially classic drugs such aminosalicylates (in ulcerative colitis) or steroids but avoid prioritizing certain biological drugs and JAK inhibitors in the complicated course. This review provides an aid to pending therapy decisions.

AREAS COVERED

In this review, we analyze the evidence for Crohn's disease as well as ulcerative colitis in order to optimize and 'personalize' the choice of therapy, especially in difficult cases. The relevant publications in Pubmed were identified in a continuous literature review with the key words 'Crohn´s disease' and 'ulcerative colitis.'

EXPERT OPINION

Based on this complex data set following standard therapies steroid-refractory Crohn´s disease should preferentially be treated with combined infliximab plus azathioprine or risankizumab, in second line after their failure with ustekinumab or 7adalimumab. In steroid-refractory ulcerative colitis infliximab plus azathioprine or upadacitinib should be preferred in first line, filgotinib, tofacitinib or ustekinumab in second line. A steroid-dependent course in both diseases requires azathioprine or vedolizumab, in second line infliximab or Janus kinase inhibitors. The conclusions drawn from these complex data may be helpful for individual decision making in daily clinical practice.

Variables associated with progression of moderate-to-severe Crohn's disease

OBJECTIVE

Determine the variables associated with hospitalisations in patients with Crohn's disease and those associated with surgery, intestinal resection, hospital readmission, need for multiple operations and immunobiological agent use.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional study was conducted from 2019 to 2021, using two centres for inflammatory bowel diseases in the Brazilian Public Health System.

RESULTS

This study included 220 patients. Only perianal disease was associated with hospitalisation (31.6% vs 13.0%, p=0.012). Stricturing or penetrating behaviour (35.8% vs 12.6%, p<0.001) and perianal disease (45.9% vs 9.9%, p<0.001) were associated with surgery. Ileal or ileocolonic location (80.0% vs 46.5%, p=0.044) and stricturing or penetrating behaviour (68.0% vs 11.2%, p<0.001) were associated with intestinal resection. Steroids use at first Crohn's disease occurrence and postoperative complications were associated with hospital readmission and need for multiple operations, respectively. Age below 40 years at diagnosis (81.3% vs 62.0%, p=0.004), upper gastrointestinal tract involvement (21.8% vs 10.3%, p=0.040) and perianal disease (35.9% vs 16.3%, p<0.001) were associated with immunobiological agent use.

CONCLUSION

Perianal disease and stricturing or penetrating behaviour were associated with more than one significant outcome. Other variables related to Crohn's disease progression were age below 40 years at diagnosis, an ileal or ileocolonic disease localisation, an upper gastrointestinal tract involvement, the use of steroids at the first Crohn's disease occurrence and history of postoperative complications. These findings are similar to those in the countries with a high prevalence of Crohn's disease.

Apex Score: Predicting Flares in Small-Bowel Crohn's Disease After Mucosal Healing

BACKGROUND

Optimal strategies for using small-bowel capsule endoscopy (SBCE) in established small-bowel Crohn's disease (CD) remain uncertain. Mucosal healing (MH) has emerged as a valuable predictor of a flare-free disease. We aimed to evaluate the occurrence of disease flare on patients with small-bowel CD and MH, as well as to create a score identifying patients in higher risk for this outcome.

METHODS

We analyzed consecutive patients submitted to SBCE for assessment of MH and included those where MH was confirmed. The incidence of disease flare was assessed during follow-up (minimum 12 months). A score predicting disease flare was created from several analyzed variables.

RESULTS

From 47 patients with MH, 12 (25.5%) had a flare (versus 48.3% in excluded patients without MH; p = 0.01). Age ≤ 30 years (OR  = 70; p  = 0.048), platelet count ≥ 280 × 103/L (OR  = 12.24; p  =  0.045) and extra-intestinal manifestations (OR  =  11.76; p  =  0.033) were associated with increased risk of CD flare during the first year after SBCE with MH. These variables were used to compute a risk-predicting score-the APEX score-which assigned the patients to having low (0-3 points) or high-risk (4-7 points) of disease flare and had excellent accuracy toward predicting disease relapse (AUC  =  0.82; 95%CI 0.64-0.99).

CONCLUSION

Patients with small-bowel CD and MH were not free of disease flares on the subsequent year, despite presenting lower rates when compared to those without MH. The APEX score demonstrated excellent accuracy at stratifying patients relapse risk and guiding further therapeutic options for patients achieving MH.

Clinical predictors for a complicated course of disease in an inception cohort of patients with ulcerative colitis: results from the prospective, observational EPICOL study

PURPOSE

The clinical course of ulcerative colitis (UC) is highly heterogeneous, with 20 to 30% of patients experiencing chronic disease activity requiring immunosuppressive or biologic therapies. The aim of this study was to identify predictors for a complicated disease course in an inception cohort of patients with UC.

METHODS

EPICOL was a prospective, observational, inception cohort (UC diagnosis, ≤ 6 months) study in 311 patients with UC who were naive to immunosuppressants (IS)/biologics. A complicated course of disease was defined as the need for IS and/or biologic treatment (here therapy with a TNF-α antagonist) and/or UC-related hospitalisation. Patients were followed up for 24 months.

RESULTS

Of the 307 out of 311 participants (4 patients did not meet the inclusion criteria "confirmed diagnosis of active UC within the last 6 months" (n = 2) and "immunosuppressive-naïve" (n = 2), analysis population), 209 (68.1%) versus 98 (31.9%) had an uncomplicated versus a complicated disease course, respectively. In a multivariate regression analysis, prior use of corticosteroids and prior anaemia were associated with a significantly increased risk for a complicated disease course (2.3- and 1.9-fold increase, respectively; p < 0.001 and p = 0.002). Based on these parameters, a risk model for patient stratification was developed.

CONCLUSION

Our study identifies anaemia and an early need for corticosteroids as predictors for a complicated course of disease in an inception cohort of patients with UC. By determining these parameters in routine clinical practice, our results may support the identification of patients who might benefit from early escalation of therapy.

Prognostic biomarkers to identify patients likely to develop severe Crohn's disease: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Identification of biomarkers that predict severe Crohn's disease is an urgent unmet research need, but existing research is piecemeal and haphazard.

OBJECTIVE

To identify biomarkers that are potentially able to predict the development of subsequent severe Crohn's disease.

DESIGN

This was a prognostic systematic review with meta-analysis reserved for those potential predictors with sufficient existing research (defined as five or more primary studies).

DATA SOURCES

PubMed and EMBASE searched from inception to 1 January 2016, updated to 1 January 2018.

REVIEW METHODS

Eligible studies were studies that compared biomarkers in patients who did or did not subsequently develop severe Crohn's disease. We excluded biomarkers that had insufficient research evidence. A clinician and two statisticians independently extracted data relating to predictors, severe disease definitions, event numbers and outcomes, including odds/hazard ratios. We assessed risk of bias. We searched for associations with subsequent severe disease rather than precise estimates of strength. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed separately for odds ratios.

RESULTS

In total, 29,950 abstracts yielded just 71 individual studies, reporting 56 non-overlapping cohorts. Five clinical biomarkers (Montreal behaviour, age, disease duration, disease location and smoking), two serological biomarkers (anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibodies and anti-flagellin antibodies) and one genetic biomarker (nucleotide-binding oligomerisation domain-containing protein 2) displayed statistically significant prognostic potential. Overall, the strongest association with subsequent severe disease was identified for Montreal B2 and B3 categories (odds ratio 4.09 and 6.25, respectively).

LIMITATIONS

Definitions of severe disease varied widely, and some studies confounded diagnosis and prognosis. Risk of bias was rated as 'high' in 92% of studies overall. Some biomarkers that are used regularly in daily practice, for example C-reactive protein, were studied too infrequently for meta-analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Research for individual biomarkers to predict severe Crohn's disease is scant, heterogeneous and at a high risk of bias. Despite a large amount of potential research, we encountered relatively few biomarkers with data sufficient for meta-analysis, identifying only eight biomarkers with potential predictive capability.

FUTURE WORK

We will use existing data sets to develop and then validate a predictive model based on the potential predictors identified by this systematic review. Contingent on the outcome of that research, a prospective external validation may prove clinically desirable.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016029363.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 45. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Healing of rectal advancement flaps for anal fistulas in patients with and without Crohn's disease: a retrospective cohort analysis

Background

Surgical closure of anal fistulas with rectal advancement flaps is an established standard method, but it has a high degree of healing failure in some cases. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for anal fistula healing failure after advancement flap placement between patients with cryptoglandular fistulas and patients with Crohn’s disease (CD).

Methods

From January 2010 to October 2020, 155 rectal advancement flaps (CD patients = 55, non-CD patients = 100) were performed. Patients were entered into a prospective database, and healing rates were retrospectively analysed.

Results

The median follow-up period was 189 days (95% CI: 109–269). The overall complication rate was 5.8%. The total healing rate for all rectal advancement flaps was 56%. CD patients were younger (33 vs. 43 years, p < 0.001), more often female (76% vs. 30%, p < 0.001), were administered more immunosuppressant medication (65% vs. 5%, p < 0.001), and had more rectovaginal fistulas (29% vs. 8%, p = 0.001) and more protective stomas (49% vs. 2%, p < 0.001) than patients without CD. However, no difference in healing rate was noted between patients with or without CD (47% vs. 60%, p = 0.088).

Conclusions

Patients with anal fistulas with and without Crohn’s disease exhibit the same healing rate. Although patients with CD display different patient-specific characteristics, no independent factors for the occurrence of anal fistula healing failure could be determined.

Trial registration Not applicable due to the retrospective study design.