Nomograms for morbidity and mortality after oncologic colon resection in the enhanced recovery era: results from a multicentric prospective national study

Estimating postoperative mortality in colorectal surgery- a systematic review of risk prediction models

PURPOSE

Risk prediction models are frequently used to support decision-making in colorectal surgery but can be inaccurate. Machine learning (ML) is becoming increasingly popular, and its application may increase predictive accuracy. We compared conventional risk prediction models for postoperative mortality (based on regression analysis) with ML models to determine the benefit of the latter approach.

METHODS

The study was registered in PROSPERO(CRD42022364753). Following the PRISMA guidelines, a systematic search of three databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, WoS) was conducted (from 1/1/2000 to 29/09/2022). Studies were included if they reported the development of a risk model to estimate short-term postoperative mortality for patients undergoing colorectal surgery. Discrimination and calibration performance metrics were compared. Studies were evaluated against CHARMS and TRIPOD criteria.

RESULTS

3,052 articles were screened, and 45 studies were included. The total sample size was 1,356,058 patients. Six studies used ML techniques for model development. Most studies (n = 42) reported the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) as a measure of discrimination. There was no significant difference in the mean AUROC values between regression models (0.833 s.d. ± 0.52) and ML (0.846 s.d. ± 0.55), p = 0.539. Calibration statistics, which measure the agreement between predicted estimates and observed outcomes, were less consistent. Risk of bias assessment found most concerns in the data handling and analysis domains of eligible studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed comparable predictive performance between regression and ML methods in colorectal surgery. Integration of ML in colorectal risk prediction is promising but further refinement of the models is required to support routine clinical adoption.

Short-term outcomes of colorectal cancer surgery in older patients: a novel nomogram predicting postoperative morbi-mortality

PURPOSE

To analyze short-term outcomes of curative-intent cancer surgery in all adult patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer undergoing surgery from January 2010 to December 2019 and determine risk factors for postoperative complications and mortality.

METHODS

Retrospective study conducted at a single tertiary university institution. Patients were stratified by age into two groups: < 75 years and ≥ 75 years. Primary outcome was the influence of age on 30-day complications and mortality. Independent risk factors for postoperative adverse events or mortality were analyzed, and two novel nomograms were constructed.

RESULTS

Of the 1486 patients included, 580 were older (≥ 75 years). Older subjects presented more comorbidities and tumors were located mainly in right colon (45.7%). After matching, no between-group differences in surgical postoperative complications were observed. The 30-day mortality rate was 5.3% for the older and 0.8% for the non-older group (p < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, the independent risk factors for postoperative complications were peripheral vascular disease, chronic pulmonary disease, severe liver disease, postoperative transfusion, and surgical approach. Independent risk factors for 30-day mortality were age ≥ 80 years, cerebrovascular disease, severe liver disease, and postoperative transfusion. The model was internally and externally validated, showing high accuracy.

CONCLUSION

Patients aged ≥ 75 years had similar postoperative complications but higher 30-day mortality than their younger counterparts. Patients with peripheral vascular disease, chronic pulmonary disease, or severe liver disease should be informed of higher postoperative complications. But patients aged ≥ 80 suffering cerebrovascular disease, severe liver disease, or needing postoperative transfusion should be warned of significantly increased risk of postoperative mortality.

Predictors of Morbidity and Mortality After Colorectal Surgery in Patients With Cirrhotic Liver Disease–A Retrospective Analysis of 54 Cases at a Tertiary Care Center

Background

Despite various existing scores that predict morbidity and mortality of patients with cirrhotic liver disease (CLD), data on specific risk stratification of patients with CLD undergoing colorectal surgery (CRS) are rare. The aim of this study was to assess in-hospital morbidity and mortality of patients with liver cirrhosis scheduled for CRS, with specific focus on possible pitfalls of surgery in this special cohort.

Methods

Between 1996 and 2018, 54 patients with CLD undergoing CRS were identified and included in this study cohort. Postoperative morbidity and mortality were assessed using the Clavien/Dindo (C/D) classification as well as by type of complication. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to analyze the predictive factors for increased postoperative morbidity.

Results

Of the patients, 37% patients died during the procedure or postoperatively. Major complications were seen in 23.1% of patients (&gt;C/D IIIb). Patients with Child B or C cirrhosis as well as patients undergoing emergency surgery experienced significantly more major complications (p = 0.04 and p = 0.023, respectively). The most common complications were bleeding requiring blood transfusion (51.1%) and cardiocirculatory instability due to bleeding or sepsis (44.4%). In 53.7% of patients, an anastomosis was created without a protective ostomy. Anastomotic leakage occurred in 20.7% of these patients. Multivariate analysis showed that a primary anastomosis without a protective ostomy was the strongest risk factor for major complications (p = 0.042).

Discussion

Morbidity and mortality after CRS in patients with CLD remains high and is not only influenced by liver function but also by surgical variables. Considering the high rate of anastomotic leakage, creating a protective or definitive ostomy must be considered with regard to the underlying pathology, the extent of CLD, and the patient's condition. Moreover, our data suggest that surgery in these most fragile patients should be performed only in experienced centers with immediate contact to hepatologists and experts in hemostasis.

Intracorporeal versus Extracorporeal Anastomosis for Laparoscopic Right Hemicolectomy: Short-Term Outcomes

Laparoscopic right hemicolectomy represents an effective therapeutic approach for right colon cancer (RCC). The primary aim of this study was to evaluate bowel function recovery, length of hospital stay, operative time, and the number of general and anastomosis-related postoperative complications from intracorporeal anastomosis (ICA) vs. extracorporeal anastomosis (ECA); the secondary outcome was the number of lymph nodes retrieved. This observational study was conducted on 108 patients who underwent right hemicolectomy for RCC; after surgical resection, 64 patients underwent ICA and 44 underwent ECA. The operative time was slightly longer in the ICA group than in the ECA group, even though the difference was not significant (199.31 ± 48.90 min vs. 183.64 ± 35.80 min; p = 0.109). The length of hospital stay (7.53 ± 1.91 days vs. 8.77 ± 3.66 days; p = 0.036) and bowel function recovery (2.21 ± 1.01 days vs. 3.45 ± 1.82 days; p < 0.0001) were significantly lower in the ICA group. There were no significant differences in postoperative complications (12% in ICA group vs. 9% in ECA group), wound infection (6% in ICA group vs. 7% in ECA group), or anastomotic leakage (6% in ICA group vs. 9% in ECA group). We did not observe a significant difference between the two groups in the number of lymph nodes collected (19.46 ± 7.06 in ICA group vs. 22.68 ± 8.79 in ECA group; p = 0.086). ICA following laparoscopic right hemicolectomy, compared to ECA, could lead to a significant improvement in bowel function recovery and a reduction in the length of hospital stay in RCC patients.

Structured presurgery prehabilitation for aged patients undergoing elective surgery significantly improves surgical outcomes and reduces cost: A nonrandomized sequential comparative prospective cohort study

Background

With increasing global life expectancy, the number of major surgeries performed on aged adults invariably increases. This study aimed to examine the effectiveness of a structured prehabilitative program for aged colorectal cancer patients in improving short‐term surgical outcomes.

Methods

A prospective philanthropically sponsored Programme for Enhanced Elderly Recovery at Sengkang General Hospital (PEERS) was initiated in February 2017 for patients ≥70‐years‐old who were due to undergo elective colectomies. These patients were put through a 2‐ to 4‐week‐long program before surgery, which included geriatric assessment, nutrition supplementation, and resistance training. They were compared with patients from a similar age group before PEERS was introduced (non‐PEERS).

Results

Fifty‐eight patients, with a median age of 78.5 (70–93) years, were recruited from a single institution to undergo PEERS. Baseline characteristics between the groups were similar. There was no significant improvement of anthropometric and functional characteristics before and after PEERS. Duration of hospitalization was shorter in the PEERS group (9 vs 11 days, P = 0.01). Both groups had similar 30‐days’ morbidity rates (8.6% vs 17.4%, P = 0.26). The PEERS group had significant improvement in their median EuroQol‐5 Dimension score (0.70 presurgery to 0.80 6‐months’ postsurgery, P = 0.01). After multivariate analysis, the average duration of hospitalization in the PEERS group was 6.8 days shorter (P = 0.018; CI, 1.2–12.4) after adjusting for modality of surgery and complications. This represented a cost saving of USD$11,838.80.

Conclusion

A standardized prehabilitation program for aged adults reduced the duration of hospitalization, improved the quality of life after surgery, and reduced costs.

Assessment of Body Composition as an Indicator of Early Peripheral Parenteral Nutrition Therapy in Patients Undergoing Colorectal Cancer Surgery in an Enhanced Recovery Program

BACKGROUND

A poor body composition (BC) has been identified as a risk factor for patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). This study was performed to assess the effect of early peripheral parenteral nutrition (PPN) on BC in patients undergoing CCR surgery within an enhanced recovery program.

METHODS

Patients with normal nutritional status were prospectively included between October 2016 and September 2019, randomized into two groups (PPN with periOlimel N4-E versus conventional fluid therapy) and subsequently classified according to their preoperative CT scan into high- or low-risk BC groups. Postoperative complications and length of hospital stay (LOS) were assessed.

RESULTS

Of the 156 patients analyzed, 88 patients (56.4%) were classified as having high-risk BC according to CT measurements. PPN led to a 15.4% reduction in postoperative complications in high-risk vs. 1.7% in low-risk BC patients. In the multivariate analysis, high-risk BC was related to an OR (95% CI) of 2 (p = 0.044) of presenting complications and of 1.9 (p = 0.066) for major complications, and was associated with an increase in LOS of 3.6 days (p = 0.039).

CONCLUSIONS

The measurement of patients' BC can allow for the identification of target patients where PPN has been proven to be an effective tool to improve postoperative outcomes.

Effect of Early Peripheral Parenteral Nutrition Support in an Enhanced Recovery Program for Colorectal Cancer Surgery: A Randomized Open Trial

BACKGROUND

Peripheral parenteral nutrition allows repletion of acute nutrient deficiencies and could prevent further nutrition deficits before and after colorectal surgery. A randomized open study was performed to evaluate the effect of perioperative peripheral parenteral nutrition (PPN) support on postoperative morbidity after colorectal cancer surgery within an enhanced recovery program.

METHODS

Patients were randomized into two groups: peripheral parenteral nutrition (PPN) (with Peri-Olimel N4-E) versus conventional fluid therapy (FT). Ninety-day postoperative complications, laboratory parameters, length of hospital stay, and compliance with the ERAS protocol were assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 158 patients were analysed. The overall 90-day complication rate was 38.6% (61 patients), and 24 patients had major complications (Clavien-Dindo III-V) (15.2%). In the multivariate analysis, the intervention (PPN vs. FC) showed a protective effect against postoperative complications (p = 0.0031, OR = 0.2 (CI: 0.08-0.87)). Following ordinal regression, PPN and early oral tolerance showed a protective effect, being less likely to develop complications or to move from minor to major complications. In patients with low compliance to ERAS during the first postoperative day, PPN showed a protective effect, preventing 28% of morbidity.

CONCLUSIONS

Perioperative peripheral parenteral nutrition (PPN) support with Peri-Olimel N4-E in colorectal cancer surgery associated with early oral intake could reduce postoperative complications.

Determinación de los factores predictivos para complicaciones en cirugía electiva de pacientes con cáncer colorrectal. Experiencia del Instituto de Cancerología Las Américas Auna (Colombia, 2016-2019)

Introducción. El pilar fundamental del tratamiento del cáncer colorrectal es la cirugía, situación que expone a los pacientes a la posible presentación de complicaciones, morbimortalidad, pobre calidad de vida, recurrencia tumoral o la muerte. El objetivo de este estudio fue determinar las variables clínicas y quirúrgicas que inciden en el riesgo de la aparición de complicaciones en los pacientes con cáncer colorrectal llevados a cirugía electiva entre los años 2016 y 2019. Métodos. Estudio observacional, descriptivo, transversal y retrospectivo. Se incluyeron pacientes mayores de 18 años con cáncer colorrectal sometidos a cirugía electiva. Se realizó un análisis multivariado para determinar los factores que se relacionan con las complicaciones postquirúrgicas. Resultados. Se incluyeron 298 pacientes, 68 % mayores de 60 años, 52,3 % mujeres, 74,2 % presentaban comorbilidades y 48,3 % fueron diagnosticados en estadio III. El 48,3 % presentó complicaciones postoperatorias. De ellos, el 68,1 % no tenía tamización nutricional y el 61,8 % no tenía preparación del colon; un 55 % fueron cirugías del recto, 69,1 % de las cirugías fueron por vía laparoscópica y 71,8 % presentaron sangrado inferior a 500 ml. La mayoría de las complicaciones fueron clasificadas como Clavien-Dindo I-III. Discusión. Las características de los pacientes fueron similares a los presentados en otros estudios, aunque hubo mayor incidencia de íleo postoperatorio. El análisis multivariado mostró una mayor probabilidad de presentar una complicación en pacientes con diabetes mellitus, hipertensión arterial, falta de tamización nutricional o preparación de colon, cirugía de recto y el sangrado mayor a 500 ml.

Prognostic role of preoperative albumin-bilirubin score in posthepatectomy liver failure and mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) is a life-threatening complication after liver resection, resulting in an increased morbidity and mortality. Epidemiological evidence of the association between preoperative albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score, a newly established model for assessing liver functional reserve, and the risk of PHLF and mortality remains controversial. A systematical search for relevant literature was performed in PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases from December 2014 to September 2020. Odds ratio (OR) value and 95% confidence interval (CI) were extracted or calculated to synthetically estimate the association of preoperative ALBI score with PHLF and mortality. Meta-analyses were performed using a random-effects model. Twelve studies with a total of 21,348 patients were included in this meta-analysis. It was indicated that, compared to patients with a lower preoperative ALBI grade, patients with a higher grade had a significantly elevated risk of PHLF (6 studies, 18,291 patients; OR = 2.48, 95%CI: 2.00-3.07) and mortality (4 studies15, 139 patients; OR = 2.35, 95% CI: 1.38-4.00). In addition, when it was expressed as a continuous variable, ALBI was also a significant predictor of PHLF (6 studies, 3,833 patients; OR = 3.16, 95% CI: 2.07-4.81, per 1-point increase in ALBI score). No significant publication biases were detected as suggested by funnel plots inspection and Begg's tests. The current meta-analysis demonstrates that preoperative elevated ALBI is associated with higher risk of PHLF and mortality after hepatectomy.