Sonographic risk assessment for an unplanned operative delivery: a prospective study

Predictive Value of Angle of Progression in Term Nulliparous Women: A Comprehensive Study on Spontaneous Vaginal Delivery Correlation and Clinical Implications

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to explore the correlation between the angle of progression (AOP) and spontaneous vaginal delivery (SVD) for term nulliparous women before the onset of labor. Additionally, it evaluates the diagnostic efficacy of AOP in predicting SVD in term nulliparous women.

METHODS

In this retrospective observational study, data from nulliparous women without contraindications for vaginal delivery, with a singleton pregnancy ≥37 weeks, and before the onset of labor were included. Transperineal ultrasound was performed to collect AOP. The date and mode of delivery were tracked, to assess the correlation between AOP and SVD in term nulliparous women. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of AOP in predicting SVD for term nulliparous women.

RESULTS

The SVD-failure (SVD-f) group exhibited a significantly lower AOP compared with the SVD group (88.43° vs 95.72°, P < .001). Logistic regression analysis revealed that AOP was associated with SVD in term nulliparous women (OR = 1.051). ROC curve analysis demonstrated that the area under the ROC curve with AOP 84° as the threshold was 0.663, with a sensitivity of 85.25% and specificity of 43.18%. Considering a sensitivity and specificity of 90%, the dual cut-off values for term nulliparous women for SVD were 81° and 104°, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A positive correlation was identified between AOP and SVD for nulliparous women after 37 weeks and before the onset of labor. Notably, term nulliparous women with AOP exceeding 104° exhibited a higher probability of SVD.

A machine learning model to predict spontaneous vaginal delivery failure for term nulliparous women: An observational study

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to construct and evaluate a model to predict spontaneous vaginal delivery (SVD) failure in term nulliparous women based on machine learning algorithms.

METHODS

In this retrospective observational study, data on nulliparous women without contraindications for vaginal delivery with a singleton pregnancy ≥37 weeks and before the onset of labor from September 2020 to September 2021 were divided into a training set and a temporal validation set. Transperineal ultrasound was performed to collect angle of progression, head-perineum distance, subpubic arch angle, and their levator hiatal dimensions. The cervical length was measured via transvaginal ultrasound. The delivery methods were later recorded. Through LASSO regression analysis, indicators that can affect SVD failure were selected. Seven common machine learning algorithms were selected for model training, and the optimal algorithm was selected based on the area under the curve (AUC) to evaluate the effectiveness of the validation model.

RESULTS

Four indicators related to SVD failure were identified through LASSO regression screening: angle of progression, cervical length, subpubic arch angle, and estimated fetal weight. The Gaussian NB algorithm was found to yield the highest AUC (0.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65-0.98) during model training, and hence it was chosen for verification with the temporal validation set, in which an AUC of 0.79 (95% CI 0.64-0.95) was obtained with accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity rates of 80.9%, 72.7%, and 75.0%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The Gaussian NB model showed good predictive effect, proving its potential as a clinical reference for predicting SVD failure of term nulliparous women before actual delivery.

The development of a prediction model for arrest of labour to be used at regular check-ups, during 36 or 37 gestational weeks, for primiparas: a retrospective cohort study

PURPOSE

An emergency caesarean section (CS) has more complications than a planned CS. The arrest of labour is a major indication for an emergency CS. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for the arrest of labour to be used in regular check-ups at 36 or 37 gestational weeks for primiparas.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study conducted at a single institution in Japan using data from January 2007 to December 2013. Primiparas attending regular check-ups during 36 or 37 gestational weeks, with live single foetuses in a cephalic presentation were included. The outcome was the incidence of labour arrest. Candidate predictors included 25 maternal and foetal findings. We developed a prediction model using logistic regression analysis with stepwise selection. A score was assigned to each predictor of the final model based on their respective β coefficients.

RESULTS

A total of 739 women were included in the analysis. Arrest of labour was diagnosed in 47 women (6.4%), and all of them delivered by emergency CS. The predictors in the final model were a Bishop score ≤ 1, maternal height ≤ 154 cm, foetal biparietal diameter ≥ 91 mm, pre-pregnancy weight ≥ 54 kg, maternal haemoglobin concentration ≥ 11.0 g/dl, and amniotic fluid index ≥ 13. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.783.

CONCLUSION

We have developed the first model to predict arrested labour before its onset. Although this model requires validation using external samples, it will help clinicians and pregnant women to control gestational conditions and make decisions regarding planned CS.

Predictive value of the trans-perineal three-dimensional ultrasound measurement of the pubic arch angle for vaginal delivery

BACKGROUND

Numerous variables are linked to the success of vaginal delivery, including the subpubic arch angle (SPAA) during labor, the importance of which has not yet been fully elucidated.

AIM

To examine the SPAA distributional characteristics and to ascertain SPAA's ability to predict the type and duration of labor.

METHODS

We determined the SPAA and analyzed the corresponding data. We also evaluated the relationship between the SPAA and the mode of delivery and the duration of labor by regression. The present study comprised a total of 301 pregnant women who had given birth at Beijing Tiantan Hospital of the Capital Medical University between January and December of 2021.

RESULTS

Our analysis of 301 pregnant women revealed that the SPAA measured using three-dimensional trans-perineal ultrasound had a minimum angle of 81° and a maximum angle of 122.2°. The angle in the normal vaginal delivery group was greater than that in the labor cesarean group (P = 0.000). The SPAA was a highly significant positive predictor of normal vaginal delivery (P = 0.000) with an area under the curve of 0.782 (P = 0.000; 95%CI: 0.717-0.848). We found the length of the second stage of labor to be positively influenced by the SPAA using linear regression analysis (P = 0.045).

CONCLUSION

The SPAA was a highly significant positive predictor of normal vaginal delivery. The length of the second stage of labor and normal vaginal birth were predicted by SPAA.

Predictive value of the trans-perineal three-dimensional ultrasound measurement of the pubic arch angle for vaginal delivery

BACKGROUND

Numerous variables are linked to the success of vaginal delivery, including the subpubic arch angle (SPAA) during labor, the importance of which has not yet been fully elucidated.

AIM

To examine the SPAA distributional characteristics and to ascertain SPAA’s ability to predict the type and duration of labor.

METHODS

We determined the SPAA and analyzed the corresponding data. We also evaluated the relationship between the SPAA and the mode of delivery and the duration of labor by regression. The present study comprised a total of 301 pregnant women who had given birth at Beijing Tiantan Hospital of the Capital Medical University between January and December of 2021.

RESULTS

Our analysis of 301 pregnant women revealed that the SPAA measured using three-dimensional trans-perineal ultrasound had a minimum angle of 81° and a maximum angle of 122.2°. The angle in the normal vaginal delivery group was greater than that in the labor cesarean group (P = 0.000). The SPAA was a highly significant positive predictor of normal vaginal delivery (P = 0.000) with an area under the curve of 0.782 (P = 0.000; 95%CI, 0.717–0.848). We found the length of the second stage of labor to be positively influenced by the SPAA using linear regression analysis (P = 0.045).

CONCLUSION

The SPAA was a highly significant positive predictor of normal vaginal delivery. The length of the second stage of labor and normal vaginal birth were predicted by SPAA.