The feasibility of physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling in forensic medicine illustrated by the example of morphine

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling to predict the pharmacokinetics of codeine in different CYP2D6 phenotypes

Objectives

Codeine, a prodrug used as an opioid agonist, is metabolized to the active product morphine by CYP2D6. This study aimed to establish physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models of codeine and morphine and explore the influence of CYP2D6 genetic polymorphisms on the pharmacokinetics of codeine and morphine.

Methods

An initial PBPK modeling of codeine in healthy adults was established using PK-Sim® software and subsequently extrapolated to CYP2D6 phenotype-related PBPK modeling based on the turnover frequency (Kcat) of CYP2D6 for different phenotype populations (UM, EM, IM, and PM). The mean fold error (MFE) and geometric mean fold error (GMFE) methods were used to compare the differences between the predicted and observed values of the pharmacokinetic parameters to evaluate the accuracy of PBPK modeling. The validated models were then used to support dose safety for different CYP2D6 phenotypes.

Results

The developed and validated CYP2D6 phenotype-related PBPK model successfully predicted codeine and morphine dispositions in different CYP2D6 phenotypes. Compared with EMs, the predicted AUC0-∞ value of morphine was 98.6% lower in PMs, 60.84% lower in IMs, and 73.43% higher in UMs. Morphine plasma exposure in IMs administered 80 mg of codeine was roughly comparable to that in EMs administered 30 mg of codeine. CYP2D6 UMs may start dose titration to achieve an optimal individual regimen and avoid a single dose of over 20 mg. Codeine should not be used in PMs for pain relief, considering its insufficient efficacy.

Conclusion

PBPK modeling can be applied to explore the dosing safety of codeine and can be helpful in predicting the effect of CYP2D6 genetic polymorphisms on drug-drug interactions (DDIs) with codeine in the future.

Morphine concentrations in fatalities after palliative treatment of acute burn injury

The evaluation of a morphine concentration in postmortem blood is routine for a forensic toxicologist. We here report three fatal cases where we found high morphine concentrations with 7.96, 4.30, and 5.82 mg/l in femoral blood that have to be estimated as unusually high. All these individuals died due to severe burn injuries and obtained morphine in the context of their palliative care in the last hours of their lives. According to the autopsy results, the cause of death in case 1 was burn disease with burns of about 90% of the body surface area (BSA), case 2 burn trauma, and case 3 burn shock. Besides morphine, propofol, fentanyl, sufentanil, midazolam, diazepam, lorazepam, cefazolin, and rocuronium were detected in femoral blood. The findings fitted well with the detailed clinical documentation. Further evidence of therapeutic concentrations of quetiapine, duloxetine, and melperone could be matched to preexisting medication of the individuals. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic modelling (PBPK) was applied, developed for the intravenous administration of morphine, to find an explanation for the high morphine concentrations in femoral blood. Quantification of morphine in body fluids and tissue was performed to calculate morphine tissue concentration ratios to the morphine concentration in femoral blood. The presented cases show that pharmacokinetic simulations can reflect decreased renal clearance and decreased hepatic metabolism in general. However, this prediction is not sufficient to explain the high morphine concentrations in femoral blood measured here. It can be assumed that burn shock in particular leads to altered pharmacokinetics, namely decreased distribution of morphine.

An Overview of Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Models for Forensic Science

A physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model represents the structural components of the body with physiologically relevant compartments connected via blood flow rates described by mathematical equations to determine drug disposition. PBPK models are used in the pharmaceutical sector for drug development, precision medicine, and the chemical industry to predict safe levels of exposure during the registration of chemical substances. However, one area of application where PBPK models have been scarcely used is forensic science. In this review, we give an overview of PBPK models successfully developed for several illicit drugs and environmental chemicals that could be applied for forensic interpretation, highlighting the gaps, uncertainties, and limitations.

Pharmacological data science perspective on fatal incidents of morphine treatment

Morphine prescribed for analgesia has caused drug-related deaths at an estimated incidence of 0.3% to 4%. Morphine has pharmacological properties that make it particularly difficult to assess the causality of morphine administration with a patient's death, such as its slow transfer between plasma and central nervous sites of action and the existence of the active metabolite morphine-6-glucuronide with opioid agonistic effects, Furthermore, there is no well-defined toxic dose or plasma/blood concentration for morphine. Dosing is often adjusted for adequate pain relief. Here, we summarize reported deaths associated with morphine therapy, including associated morphine exposure and modulating patient factors such as pharmacogenetics, concomitant medications, or comorbidities. In addition, we systematically analyzed published numerical information on the stability of concentrations of morphine and its relevant metabolites in biological samples collected postmortem. A medicolegal case is presented in which the causality of morphine administration with death was in dispute and pharmacokinetic modeling was applied to infer the administered dose. The results of this analytical review suggest that (i) inference from postmortem blood concentrations to the morphine dose administered has low validity and (ii) causality between a patient's death and the morphine dose administered remains a highly context-dependent and collaborative assessment among experts from different medical specialties.

Feasibility of physiologically based pharmacokinetic simulations for assessing pediatric patients after accidental drug ingestion: A case study of a 1.4-year-old girl who ingested alprazolam

The accidental ingestion of drugs is a common concern, especially in the case of young children. A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model that implements the age-dependent size growth and ontogeny of organ functions can be used to predict the concentration-time profiles of drugs in the pediatric population. In this study, the feasibility of using a PBPK model for predicting the amount of drug accidentally swallowed by a child was assessed based on a case study in an infant. Alprazolam was the drug involved in the current case. The developed PBPK model of alprazolam was first evaluated using pharmacokinetic data obtained in healthy adult male volunteers. Then, it was adapted for application to virtual Japanese pediatric subjects having the same demographic information as the infant of interest. The pharmacokinetic data observed in the infant fell within the range of the 5th and 95th percentiles of the pharmacokinetic simulations after administration of 0.4 mg alprazolam (equivalent to one tablet) in the panel of virtual infants. PBPK simulations could provide estimates of the amount accidentally ingested by a child and also give mechanistic insights into the observed drug concentrations. The current study demonstrates the potential clinical utility of PBPK modeling.

Data Digitizing: Accurate and Precise Data Extraction for Quantitative Systems Pharmacology and Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling

In quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) and physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling, data digitizing is a valuable tool to extract numerical information from published data presented as graphs. To quantify their relevance, a literature search revealed a remarkable mean increase of 16% per year in publications citing digitizing software together with QSP or PBPK. Accuracy, precision, confounder influence, and variability were investigated using scaled median symmetric accuracy (ζ), thus finding excellent accuracy (mean ζ = 0.99%). Although significant, no relevant confounders were found (mean ζ ± SD circles = 0.69% ± 0.68% vs. triangles = 1.3% ± 0.62%). Analysis of 181 literature peak plasma concentration values revealed a considerable discrepancy between reported and post hoc digitized data with 85% having ζ > 5%. Our findings suggest that data digitizing is precise and important. However, because the greatest pitfall comes from pre-existing errors, we recommend always making published data available as raw values.

PBPK Model of Morphine Incorporating Developmental Changes in Hepatic OCT1 and UGT2B7 Proteins to Explain the Variability in Clearances in Neonates and Small Infants

Morphine has large pharmacokinetic variability, which is further complicated by developmental changes in neonates and small infants. The impacts of organic cation transporter 1 (OCT1) genotype and changes in blood-flow on morphine clearance (CL) were previously demonstrated in children, whereas changes in UDP-glucuronosyltransferase 2B7 (UGT2B7) activity showed a small effect. This study, targeting neonates and small infants, was designed to assess the influence of developmental changes in OCT1 and UGT2B7 protein expression and modified blood-flow on morphine CL using physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling. The implementation of these three age-dependent factors into the pediatric system platform resulted in reasonable prediction for an age-dependent increase in morphine CL in these populations. Sensitivity of morphine CL to changes in cardiac output increased with age up to 3 years, whereas sensitivity to changes in UGT2B7 activity decreased. This study suggests that morphine exhibits age-dependent extraction, likely due to the developmental increase in OCT1 and UGT2B7 protein expression/activity and hepatic blood-flow.