Long- and short-term influence of environment on recruitment in a species with highly delayed maturity

Environmental variability directly affects the prevalence of divorce in monogamous albatrosses

In many socially monogamous species, divorce is a strategy used to correct for sub-optimal partnerships and is informed by measures of previous breeding performance. The environment affects the productivity and survival of populations, thus indirectly affecting divorce via changes in demographic rates. However, whether environmental fluctuations directly modulate the prevalence of divorce in a population remains poorly understood. Here, using a longitudinal dataset on the long-lived black-browed albatross (Thalassarche melanophris) as a model organism, we test the hypothesis that environmental variability directly affects divorce. We found that divorce rate varied across years (1% to 8%). Individuals were more likely to divorce after breeding failures. However, regardless of previous breeding performance, the probability of divorce was directly affected by the environment, increasing in years with warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). Furthermore, our state-space models show that warm SSTA increased the probability of switching mates in females in successful relationships. For the first time, to our knowledge, we document the disruptive effects of challenging environmental conditions on the breeding processes of a monogamous population, potentially mediated by higher reproductive costs, changes in phenology and physiological stress. Environmentally driven divorce may therefore represent an overlooked consequence of global change.

Pacific Decadal and El Niño oscillations shape survival of a seabird

Understanding and modeling population change is urgently needed to predict effects of climate change on biodiversity. High trophic-level organisms are influenced by fluctuations of prey quality and abundance, which themselves may depend on climate oscillations. Modeling effects of such fluctuations is challenging because prey populations may vary with multiple climate oscillations occurring at different time scales. The analysis of a 28-yr time series of capture-recapture data of a tropical seabird, the Nazca Booby (Sula granti), in the Galápagos, Ecuador, allowed us to test for demographic effects of two major ocean oscillations occurring at distinct time-scales: the inter-annual El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and inter-decadal oscillations. As expected for a tropical seabird, survival of fledgling birds was highly affected by extreme ENSO events; by contrast, neither recruitment nor breeding participation were affected by either ENSO or decadal oscillations. More interesting, adult survival, a demographic trait that canalizes response to environmental variations, was unaffected by inter-annual ENSO oscillations yet was shaped by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and small pelagic fish regime. Adult survival decreased during oceanic conditions associated with higher breeding success, an association probably mediated in this species by costs of reproduction that reduce survival when breeding attempts end later. To our knowledge, this is the first study suggesting that survival of a vertebrate can be vulnerable to a natural multidecadal oscillation.

Density feedbacks mediate effects of environmental change on population dynamics of a semidesert rodent

Population dynamics are the result of an interplay between extrinsic and intrinsic environmental drivers. Predicting the effects of environmental change on wildlife populations therefore requires a thorough understanding of the mechanisms through which different environmental drivers interact to generate changes in population size and structure. In this study, we disentangled the roles of temperature, food availability and population density in shaping short- and long-term population dynamics of the African striped mouse, a small rodent inhabiting a semidesert with high intra- and interannual variation in environmental conditions. We parameterized a female-only stage-structured matrix population model with vital rates depending on temperature, food availability and population density, using monthly mark-recapture data from 1609 mice trapped over 9 years (2005-2014). We then applied perturbation analyses to determine relative strengths and demographic pathways of these drivers in affecting population dynamics. Furthermore, we used stochastic population projections to gain insights into how three different climate change scenarios might affect size, structure and persistence of this population. We identified food availability, acting through reproduction, as the main driver of changes in both short- and long-term population dynamics. This mechanism was mediated by strong density feedbacks, which stabilized the population after high peaks and allowed it to recover from detrimental crashes. Density dependence thus buffered the population against environmental change, and even adverse climate change scenarios were predicted to have little effect on population persistence (extinction risk over 100 years <5%) despite leading to overall lower abundances. Explicitly linking environment-demography relationships to population dynamics allowed us to accurately capture past population dynamics. It further enabled establishing the roles and relative importances of extrinsic and intrinsic environmental drivers, and we conclude that doing this is essential when investigating impacts of climate change on wildlife populations.

Experiencing El Niño conditions during early life reduces recruiting probabilities but not adult survival

In wild long-lived animals, analysis of impacts of stressful natal conditions on adult performance has rarely embraced the entire age span, and the possibility that costs are expressed late in life has seldom been examined. Using 26 years of data from 8541 fledglings and 1310 adults of the blue-footed booby (Sula nebouxii), a marine bird that can live up to 23 years, we tested whether experiencing the warm waters and food scarcity associated with El Niño in the natal year reduces recruitment or survival over the adult lifetime. Warm water in the natal year reduced the probability of recruiting; each additional degree (°C) of water temperature meant a reduction of roughly 50% in fledglings' probability of returning to the natal colony as breeders. Warm water in the current year impacted adult survival, with greater effect at the oldest ages than during early adulthood. However, warm water in the natal year did not affect survival at any age over the adult lifespan. A previous study showed that early recruitment and widely spaced breeding allow boobies that experience warm waters in the natal year to achieve normal fledgling production over the first 10 years; our results now show that this reproductive effort incurs no survival penalty, not even late in life. This pattern is additional evidence of buffering against stressful natal conditions via life-history adjustments.

Effect of extreme sea surface temperature events on the demography of an age-structured albatross population

Climate changes include concurrent changes in environmental mean, variance and extremes, and it is challenging to understand their respective impact on wild populations, especially when contrasted age-dependent responses to climate occur. We assessed how changes in mean and standard deviation of sea surface temperature (SST), frequency and magnitude of warm SST extreme climatic events (ECE) influenced the stochastic population growth rate log(λs) and age structure of a black-browed albatross population. For changes in SST around historical levels observed since 1982, changes in standard deviation had a larger (threefold) and negative impact on log(λs) compared to changes in mean. By contrast, the mean had a positive impact on log(λs). The historical SST mean was lower than the optimal SST value for which log(λs) was maximized. Thus, a larger environmental mean increased the occurrence of SST close to this optimum that buffered the negative effect of ECE. This 'climate safety margin' (i.e. difference between optimal and historical climatic conditions) and the specific shape of the population growth rate response to climate for a species determine how ECE affect the population. For a wider range in SST, both the mean and standard deviation had negative impact on log(λs), with changes in the mean having a greater effect than the standard deviation. Furthermore, around SST historical levels increases in either mean or standard deviation of the SST distribution led to a younger population, with potentially important conservation implications for black-browed albatrosses.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'.

Contrasting effects of climate and population density over time and life stages in a long-lived seabird

Although population responses to environmental variability have been extensively studied for many organisms, few studies have considered early-life stages owing to the inherent difficulties in tracking the fate of young individuals. However, young individuals are expected to be more sensitive to environmental stochasticity owing to their inexperience and lower competitive abilities. Thus, they are keys to understand demographic responses of an age-structured population to environmental variability.In this study, we used capture-recapture modelling, based on a 49 year-long individual-based longitudinal monitoring dataset, to investigate climatic and population density effects on immature demographic parameters in a long-lived seabird, the wandering albatross.We provide evidence that climate and population size affected both survival and recruitment age of young individuals although in different ways according to the trait. We found that early-life survival was mainly affected by population density, whereas recruitment age variation appeared to be better explained by climatic conditions, with a surprising long-term effect of climate. While population size explained 60% of the variation in juvenile survival, the average Southern Annular Mode over the five previous years explained 52% of variation in recruitment age.In addition, although early-life survival was consistently negatively affected by population size, the relationship between recruitment age and population size shifted from negative to positive over time from the 1970s to 2000s, showing that density dependence mechanisms can temporarily disappear.Finally, we found that similar climatic conditions may affect individual performances in opposite ways according to the life stage of individuals. This result underlines the critical need to assess age-specific functional responses to environmental variability to allow accurate demographic predictions. By revealing the poorly known demographic process of younger age classes, the results of this study improve our understanding of population dynamics of long-lived marine species. A lay summary is available for this article.

Paternal but not maternal age influences early-life performance of offspring in a long-lived seabird

Variability in demographic traits between individuals within populations has profound implications for both evolutionary processes and population dynamics. Parental effects as a source of non-genetic inheritance are important processes to consider to understand the causes of individual variation. In iteroparous species, parental age is known to influence strongly reproductive success and offspring quality, but consequences on an offspring fitness component after independence are much less studied. Based on 37 years longitudinal monitoring of a long-lived seabird, the wandering albatross, we investigate delayed effects of parental age on offspring fitness components. We provide evidence that parental age influences offspring performance beyond the age of independence. By distinguishing maternal and paternal age effects, we demonstrate that paternal age, but not maternal age, impacts negatively post-fledging offspring performance.

Climate change and Southern Ocean ecosystems I: how changes in physical habitats directly affect marine biota

Antarctic and Southern Ocean (ASO) marine ecosystems have been changing for at least the last 30 years, including in response to increasing ocean temperatures and changes in the extent and seasonality of sea ice; the magnitude and direction of these changes differ between regions around Antarctica that could see populations of the same species changing differently in different regions. This article reviews current and expected changes in ASO physical habitats in response to climate change. It then reviews how these changes may impact the autecology of marine biota of this polar region: microbes, zooplankton, salps, Antarctic krill, fish, cephalopods, marine mammals, seabirds, and benthos. The general prognosis for ASO marine habitats is for an overall warming and freshening, strengthening of westerly winds, with a potential pole-ward movement of those winds and the frontal systems, and an increase in ocean eddy activity. Many habitat parameters will have regionally specific changes, particularly relating to sea ice characteristics and seasonal dynamics. Lower trophic levels are expected to move south as the ocean conditions in which they are currently found move pole-ward. For Antarctic krill and finfish, the latitudinal breadth of their range will depend on their tolerance of warming oceans and changes to productivity. Ocean acidification is a concern not only for calcifying organisms but also for crustaceans such as Antarctic krill; it is also likely to be the most important change in benthic habitats over the coming century. For marine mammals and birds, the expected changes primarily relate to their flexibility in moving to alternative locations for food and the energetic cost of longer or more complex foraging trips for those that are bound to breeding colonies. Few species are sufficiently well studied to make comprehensive species-specific vulnerability assessments possible. Priorities for future work are discussed.

Personality, foraging and fitness consequences in a long lived seabird

While personality differences in animals are defined as consistent behavioural variation between individuals, the widely studied field of foraging specialisation in marine vertebrates has rarely been addressed within this framework. However there is much overlap between the two fields, both aiming to measure the causes and consequences of consistent individual behaviour. Here for the first time we use both a classic measure of personality, the response to a novel object, and an estimate of foraging strategy, derived from GPS data, to examine individual personality differences in black browed albatross and their consequences for fitness. First, we examine the repeatability of personality scores and link these to variation in foraging habitat. Bolder individuals forage nearer the colony, in shallower regions, whereas shyer birds travel further from the colony, and fed in deeper oceanic waters. Interestingly, neither personality score predicted a bird's overlap with fisheries. Second, we show that both personality scores are correlated with fitness consequences, dependent on sex and year quality. Our data suggest that shyer males and bolder females have higher fitness, but the strength of this relationship depends on year quality. Females who forage further from the colony have higher breeding success in poor quality years, whereas males foraging close to the colony always have higher fitness. Together these results highlight the potential importance of personality variation in seabirds and that the fitness consequences of boldness and foraging strategy may be highly sex dependent.

Known unknowns in an imperfect world: incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi-event capture-recapture models

Studying the demography of wild animals remains challenging as several of the critical parts of their life history may be difficult to observe in the field. In particular, determining with certainty when an individual breeds for the first time is not always obvious. This can be problematic because uncertainty about the transition from a prebreeder to a breeder state - recruitment - leads to uncertainty in vital rate estimates and in turn in population projection models. To avoid this issue, the common practice is to discard imperfect data from the analyses. However, this practice can generate a bias in vital rate estimates if uncertainty is related to a specific component of the population and reduces the sample size of the dataset and consequently the statistical power to detect effects of biological interest. Here, we compared the demographic parameters assessed from a standard multistate capture-recapture approach to the estimates obtained from the newly developed multi-event framework that specifically accounts for uncertainty in state assessment. Using a comprehensive longitudinal dataset on southern elephant seals, we demonstrated that the multi-event model enabled us to use all the data collected (6639 capture-recapture histories vs. 4179 with the multistate model) by accounting for uncertainty in breeding states, thereby increasing the precision and accuracy of the demographic parameter estimates. The multi-event model allowed us to incorporate imperfect data into demographic analyses. The gain in precision obtained has important implications in the conservation and management of species because limiting uncertainty around vital rates will permit predicting population viability with greater accuracy.

Life history plasticity of a tropical seabird in response to El Niño anomalies during early life

Food shortage and other challenges associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) experienced early in life may have long-term impacts on life history traits, but these potential impacts remain virtually unexplored. By monitoring 2556 blue-footed boobies from 11 cohorts, we showed that birds facing warm water ENSO conditions (and probably low food availability) in the natal year were underweight at fledging, recruited earlier and bred less frequently, but showed no deficit in longevity or breeding success over the first 10 years. Life history impacts of ENSO were substantial when experienced in the prenatal year, the natal year, or the second year of life, and absent when experienced in the third year of life, implying that harsh conditions have greater effects when experienced earlier in life. Sexual differences in impacts depended on the age when warm water conditions were experienced: pre-natal and natal experience, respectively, induced early recruitment and influenced the relationship between age and laying date only in females, whereas second year experience reduced total breeding success only of males. Most surprising were positive transgenerational impacts in females: daughters of females that experienced ENSO conditions in their natal year showed improved breeding success. Developmental plasticity of boobies thus enables them to largely neutralize potential long-term impacts of harsh climatic conditions experienced early in life.

Food availability affects onset of reproduction in a long-lived seabird

Life-history theory predicts that suboptimal developmental conditions may lead to faster life histories (younger age at recruitment and higher reproductive investment), but experimental testing of this prediction is still scarce in long-lived species. We report the effects of an experimental manipulation of food availability during early development and at recruitment on the onset of reproduction and reproductive performance (productivity at first breeding) in a long-lived seabird, the black-legged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla, breeding on Middleton Island, Alaska. Birds were born and raised in nests with supplemented food ('fed') or unsupplemented control nests ('unfed'), and later recruited into either fed or unfed nests. Fed chicks grew faster than unfed chicks, and males grew faster than females. Birds were more likely to reproduce at younger ages when recruiting into fed nests. Faster growth during development tended to increase age at recruitment in all individuals. Social rank of individuals also affected age at recruitment: B-chicks recruited earlier than A-chicks and singletons recruited later than A- and B-chicks. Productivity increased with the age at recruitment and growth rate as chick, but much of the variability remained unexplained. We conclude that results of this study at least partially support predictions of life-history theory: younger age at first breeding for kittiwakes that experienced suboptimal natal conditions, as well as greater productivity of early recruiting kittiwakes that grew in control nests compared with those that grew in food-supplemented nests.