Synoptic and meteorological characterisation of olive pollen transport in Córdoba province (south-western Spain)

Aerobiological modelling II: A review of long-range transport models

The long-range atmospheric transport models of pollen and fungal spores require four modules for their development: (i) Meteorological module: which contain the meteorological model, and it can be coupled to transport model with the same output configuration (spatio-temporal resolution), or uncoupled does not necessarily have the same output parameters. (ii) Emission module: settles the mass fluxes of bioaerosol, it can be done with a complex parameterization integrating phenological models and meteorological factors or by a simple emission factor. (iii) Sources of emission module, specifically refers to forestry/agronomy maps or, in the case of herbs and fungi, to potential geographical areas of emission. Obtaining the highest possible resolution in these maps allows establishing greater reliability in the modelling. (iv) Atmospheric transport module, with its respective established output parameters. The review and subsequent analysis presented in this article, were performed on published electronic scientific articles from 1998 to 2016. Of a total of 101 models applied found in 64 articles, 33 % performed forward modelling (using 15 different models) and 67 % made backward modelling (with three different models). The 88 % of the cases were applied to pollen (13 taxa) and 12 % to fungal spores (3 taxa). Regarding the emission module, 22 % used parametrization (four different parameters) and 10 % emission factors. The most used transport model was HYSPLIT (59 %: 56 % backward and 3 % forward) following by SILAM 10 % (all forward). Main conclusions were that the models of long-range transport of pollen and fungal spores had high technical-scientific requirements to development and that the major limitations were the establishment of the flow and the source of the emission.

Atmospheric volatile halogenated hydrocarbons in air pollution episodes in an urban area of Beijing: Characterization, health risk assessment and sources apportionment

Volatile halogenated hydrocarbons (VHCs) have attracted wide attention in the atmospheric chemistry field since they not only affect the ecological environment but also damage human health. In order to better understand the characteristics, sources and health risks of VHCs in typical urban areas in Beijing, and also verify the achievement in implementing the Montreal Protocol (MP) in Beijing, observational studies on 22 atmospheric VHCs species were conducted during six air pollution episodes from December 2016 to May 2017. The range in daily mixing ratios of the 6 MP-regulated VHCs was 1000-1168 pptv, and the 16 MP-unregulated VHCs was 452-2961 pptv. The 16 MP-unregulated VHCs accounted for a relatively high concentration proportion among the 22 VHCs with a mean of 70.25%. Compared with other regions, the mixing ratios of MP-regulated VHCs were in the middle concentrations. The mixing ratios of the MP-regulated VHCs remained the same concentrations during the air pollution episodes, while the concentrations of MP-unregulated VHCs were generally higher on polluted days than on clean days and increased with the aggravation of the pollution episodes. The mixing ratios of dichlorodifluoromethane and trichlorofluoromethane were higher than Northern Hemisphere (NH) background values, while the mixing ratios of the other 4 MP-regulated VHCs were moderate and similar to the NH background values. All the 9 VHCs with carcinogenic risk might pose potential carcinogenic risks to the exposed populations in the six pollution episodes, while none of the 12 VHCs might pose appreciable non-carcinogenic risks to the exposed populations. Considering the higher concentration levels and higher risk values of 1,2-dichloropropane, 1,2-dichloroethane, carbon tetrachloride and trichloromethane, Beijing needs to further strengthen the control of these VHCs. The analysis of air mass transportation and PMF model showed that regional transportation and leakage of CFCs banks were important sources of VHCs in Beijing, and the contribution of industrial process and solvent usage should not be neglected. The results revealed the effective implementation of the MP in Beijing and its surrounding areas, while further measures are suggested to control the emissions of important VHCs especially from regional transportation and leakage of CFCs banks to reduce the possible health risks to the exposed population.

Diallelic self-incompatibility is the main determinant of fertilization patterns in olive orchards

Self-incompatibility (SI) in flowering plants potentially represents a major obstacle for sexual reproduction, especially when the number of S-alleles is low. The situation is extreme in the commercially important olive tree, where in vitro pollination assays suggested the existence of a diallelic SI (DSI) system involving only two groups (G1 and G2). Varieties belonging to the same SI group cannot fertilize each other, such that successful fruit production is predicted to require pollination between varieties of different groups. To test this prediction, we explored the extent to which the DSI system determines fertilization patterns under field conditions. One hundred and seventeen olive cultivars were first genotyped using 10 highly polymorphic dinucleotide Simple Sequence Repeat (SSR) markers to ascertain varietal identity. Cultivars were then phenotyped through controlled pollination tests to assign each of them to one of the two SI groups. We then collected and genotyped 1440 open pollinated embryos from five different orchards constituted of seven local cultivars with known group of incompatibility groups. Embryos genotype information were used: (i) to assign embryos to the most likely pollen donor genotype in the neighbourhood using paternity analysis, and (ii) to compare the composition of the pollen cloud genetic among recipient trees in the five sites. The paternity analysis showed that the DSI system is the main determinant of fertilization success under field open pollination conditions: G1 cultivars sired seeds exclusively on G2 cultivars, and reciprocally. No self-fertilization events were observed. Our results demonstrate that DSI is a potent force determining pollination success among varieties within olive orchards used for production. They have the potential to improve management practices by guiding the selection of compatible varieties to avoid planting orchards containing sets of varieties with strongly unbalanced SI groups, as these would lead to suboptimal olive production.

Atmospheric Pathways and Distance Range Analysis of Castanea Pollen Transport in Southern Spain

The sweet chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) is the only native species of this genus in Europe, where it faces various threats that are causing a severe decrease in populations, with the resulting loss of genetic diversity. In the Iberian Peninsula, it is of high economic and ecological importance, being well represented, especially in northern areas, whilst it is limited to isolated populations in medium-range mountains in southern Spain (Andalusia region). Taking advantage of this fragmented distribution, this study analyzes the dynamics of atmospheric transport of Castanea pollen through Andalusia region in order to obtain a better understanding of the pollination pathways as a key aspect of the floral biology of this partially anemophilous species. The aerobiological characteristics of this species are also of special interest since its pollen has been recognized as allergenic. Pollen transport pathways were studied by applying back-trajectories analysis together with aerobiological, phenological, land cover, and meteorological data. The results reveal that airborne Castanea pollen concentrations recorded in the city of Cordoba, in the center of Andalusia region, reach medium- and even long-range distances. The backward-trajectory analysis indicates that most of the pollen data detected outside the Castanea flowering season were related to westerly slow and easterly airflows. Furthermore, some of the case studies analyzed indicate the presence of southerly airflow patterns, which could influence medium- and long-range transport events from chestnut populations further south, even from those located in north African mountains. The integrated analysis of the results offers us better knowledge of the cross-pollination pathways of this endangered species, which help us to understand its genetic flows, as a basis for designing conservation strategies for this highly fragmented species in southern Spain.

Understanding hourly patterns of Olea pollen concentrations as tool for the environmental impact assessment

Bioinformatics clustering application for mining of a large set of olive pollen aerobiological data to describe the daily distribution of Olea pollen concentration. The study was performed with hourly pollen concentrations measured during 8 years (2011-2018) in Extremadura (Spain). Olea pollen season by quartiles of the pollen integral in preseason (Q1: 0%-25%), in-season (Q2 and Q3: 25%-75%) and postseason (Q4: 75%-100%). Days with pollen concentrations above 100 grains/m³ were clustered according to the daily distribution of the concentrations. The factors affecting the prevalence of the different clusters were analyzed: distance to olive groves and the moment during the pollen season and the meteorology. During the season, the highest hourly concentrations during the day where between 12:00 and 14:00, while during the preseason the highest hourly concentrations were detected in the afternoon and evening hours. In the postseason the pollen concentrations were more homogeneously distributed during 9-16 h. The representation shows a well-defined hourly pattern during the season, but a more heterogeneous distribution during the preseason and postseason. The cluster dendrogram shows that all the days could be clustered in 6 groups: most of the clusters shows the daily peaks between 11:00 and 15:00 with a smooth curve (Cluster 1 and 3) or with a strong peak (2 and 5). Days included in cluster 9 shows an earlier peak in the morning (before 9:00). On the other hand, cluster 6 shows a peak in the afternoon, after 15:00. Hourly concentrations show a sharper pattern during the season, with the peak during the hours close to the emission. Out of the season, when pollen is expected to come from farther distances, the hourly peak is located later from the emission time of the trees. Significant factors for predicting the hourly pattern were wind speed and direction and the distance to the olive groves.

Wind dynamics' influence on south Spain airborne olive-pollen during African intrusions

Given its proximity to northern Africa, southern Spain is regularly affected by high-altitude African intrusions. This determines a well-defined wind dynamics at surface levels. Although this weather event-mainly recorded in spring and summer-coincides with the flowering season of many wind pollinated species, its potential influence on long term airborne pollen transport has been not investigated in detail. We analyse their influence on olive pollen transport at surface level in south Spain. Daily and bi-hourly olive pollen data from 2010 to 2015, recorded at two sites 150km apart, Málaga (coast) and Córdoba (inland), were analysed together with 1) air masses at 300m above ground level (m.a.g.l.), 2) surface wind direction and 3) surface wind speed over the same period. Air masses at 3000m.a.g.l. were used to identify the periods under the influence of African intrusions. The combined analysis has enabled the identification of different pollen patterns and source contributions. In Málaga, hourly pollen peaks were recorded during the early morning coinciding with the arrival of north-westerly winds (developing sea-land breezes), with a minimal impact of local pollen sources; in Córdoba, by contrast, pollen concentrations reflected the joint contribution of local and long term sources, being the maximum concentrations associated with the arrival of southerly air masses in the afternoon. These results help to understand the potential distant sources and back-trajectories of olive pollen detected. In our case pollen from sources located at the west-northwest areas in the case of Malaga, and from the south in Cordoba. These results reinforce the idea that combined studies between synoptic meteorological and aerobiological data together with different atmospheric height air masses data, offer us a better explanation and understanding of the behaviour and the potential sources of recorded airborne data in a given place.

Aerobiology in the International Journal of Biometeorology, 1957-2017

Aerobiology and biometeorology are related fields. Here we provide a broad review of aerobiology articles published in the International Journal of Biometeorology (IJB) over the past 60 years. We consider how the quantity of such work has varied over this period as well as which regions and countries have been the focus of such work, and where there is a relative paucity. We then focus on a number of highlights and themes in this research, including aerobiology and climate change and aerobiological modelling and forecasting. While much of the article focusses on airborne pollen research, we also discuss the extent to which other airborne organic particles such as fungal spores and bacteria have been the focus of research published in IJB. Also considered are knowledge gaps and research needs and priorities with respect to the field of aerobiology. While the IJB has been one of the main platforms for presenting aerobiological research over recent decades, the article highlights the need for the field of aerobiology to embrace new sampling technologies such as spectral analysis and next-generation sequencing to identify and quantify airborne biological particles.

Airborne Quercus pollen in SW Spain: Identifying favourable conditions for atmospheric transport and potential source areas

The pollen grains of Quercus spp. (oak trees) are allergenic. This study investigates airborne Quercus pollen in SW Spain with the aim identifying favourable conditions for atmospheric transport and potential sources areas. Two types of Quercus distribution maps were produced. Airborne Quercus pollen concentrations were measured at three sites located in the Extremadura region (SW Spain) for 3 consecutive years. The seasonal occurrence of Quercus pollen in the air was investigated, as well as days with pollen concentrations ≥80Pm(-3). The distance that Quercus pollen can be transported in appreciable numbers was calculated using clusters of back trajectories representing the air mass movement above the source areas (oak woodlands), and by using a state-of-the-art dispersion model. The two main potential sources of Quercus airborne pollen captured in SW Spain are Q. ilex subsp. ballota and Q. suber. The minimum distances between aerobiological stations and Quercus woodlands have been estimated as: 40km (Plasencia), 66km (Don Benito), 62km (Zafra) from the context of this study. Daily mean Quercus pollen concentration can exceed 1,700Pm(-3), levels reached not less than 24 days in a single year. High Quercus pollen concentration were mostly associated with moderate wind speed events (6-10ms(-1)), whereas that a high wind speed (16-20ms(-1)) seems to be associated with low concentrations.

Regional forecast model for the Olea pollen season in Extremadura (SW Spain)

The olive tree (Olea europaea) is a predominantly Mediterranean anemophilous species. The pollen allergens from this tree are an important cause of allergic problems. Olea pollen may be relevant in relation to climate change, due to the fact that its flowering phenology is related to meteorological parameters. This study aims to investigate airborne Olea pollen data from a city on the SW Iberian Peninsula, to analyse the trends in these data and their relationships with meteorological parameters using time series analysis. Aerobiological sampling was conducted from 1994 to 2013 in Badajoz (SW Spain) using a 7-day Hirst-type volumetric sampler. The main Olea pollen season lasted an average of 34 days, from May 4th to June 7th. The model proposed to forecast airborne pollen concentrations, described by one equation. This expression is composed of two terms: the first term represents the resilience of the pollen concentration trend in the air according to the average concentration of the previous 10 days; the second term was obtained from considering the actual pollen concentration value, which is calculated based on the most representative meteorological variables multiplied by a fitting coefficient. Due to the allergenic characteristics of this pollen type, it should be necessary to forecast its short-term prevalence using a long record of data in a city with a Mediterranean climate. The model obtained provides a suitable level of confidence to forecast Olea airborne pollen concentration.

Mesoscale atmospheric transport of ragweed pollen allergens from infected to uninfected areas

Allergenic ragweed (Ambrosia spp.) pollen grains, after being released from anthers, can be dispersed by air masses far from their source. However, the action of air temperature, humidity and solar radiation on pollen grains in the atmosphere could impact on the ability of long distance transported (LDT) pollen to maintain allergenic potency. Here, we report that the major allergen of Ambrosia artemisiifolia pollen (Amb a 1) collected in ambient air during episodes of LDT still have immunoreactive properties. The amount of Amb a 1 found in LDT ragweed pollen grains was not constant and varied between episodes. In addition to allergens in pollen sized particles, we detected reactive Amb a 1 in subpollen sized respirable particles. These findings suggest that ragweed pollen grains have the potential to cause allergic reactions, not only in the heavily infested areas but, due to LDT episodes, also in the regions unaffected by ragweed populations.

Airborne Microalgae: Insights, Opportunities, and Challenges

Airborne dispersal of microalgae has largely been a blind spot in environmental biological studies because of their low concentration in the atmosphere and the technical limitations in investigating microalgae from air samples. Recent studies show that airborne microalgae can survive air transportation and interact with the environment, possibly influencing their deposition rates. This minireview presents a summary of these studies and traces the possible route, step by step, from established ecosystems to new habitats through air transportation over a variety of geographic scales. Emission, transportation, deposition, and adaptation to atmospheric stress are discussed, as well as the consequences of their dispersal on health and the environment and state-of-the-art techniques to detect and model airborne microalga dispersal. More-detailed studies on the microalga atmospheric cycle, including, for instance, ice nucleation activity and transport simulations, are crucial for improving our understanding of microalga ecology, identifying microalga interactions with the environment, and preventing unwanted contamination events or invasions.

Potential sources of airborne Alternaria spp. spores in South-west Spain

Fungi belonging to the genus of Alternaria are recognised as being significant plant pathogens, and Alternaria allergens are one of the most important causes of respiratory allergic diseases in Europe. This study aims to provide a detailed and original analysis of Alternaria transport dynamics in Badajoz, SW Spain. This was achieved by examining daily mean and hourly observations of airborne Alternaria spores recorded during days with high airborne concentrations of Alternaria spores (>100 s m(-3)) from 2009 to 2011, as well as four inventory maps of major Alternaria habitats, the overall synoptic weather situation and analysis of air mass transport using Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model and geographic information systems. Land use calculated within a radius of 100 km from Badajoz shows that crops and grasslands are potentially the most important local sources of airborne Alternaria spores recorded at the site. The results of back trajectory analysis show that, during the examined four episodes, the two main directions where Alternaria source areas were located were: (1) SW-W; and (2) NW-NE. Regional scale and long distance transport could therefore supplement the airborne catch recorded at Badajoz with Alternaria conidia originating from sources such as crops and orchards situated in other parts of the Iberian Peninsula.

Is long range transport of pollen in the NW Mediterranean basin influenced by Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns?

Climatic oscillations triggered by the atmospheric modes of the Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns have an important influence on the atmospheric circulation at synoptic scale in Western Mediterranean Basin. Simultaneously, this climate variability could affect a variety of ecological processes. This work provides a first assessment of the effect of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) on the atmospheric long-range pollen transport episodes in the North-Eastern Iberian Peninsula for the period 1994-2011. Alnus, Ambrosia, Betula, Corylus and Fagus have been selected as allergenic pollen taxa with potential long-range transport associated to the Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns in the Western Mediterranean Basin. The results showed an increase of long range pollen transport episodes of: (1) Alnus, Corylus and Fagus from Western and Central Europe during the negative phase of annual NAO and AO; (2) Ambrosia, Betula and Fagus from Europe during the negative phase of winter WeMO; (3) Corylus and Fagus from Mediterranean area during the positive phase of the annual AO; and (4) Ambrosia from France and Northern Europe during the positive phase of winter WeMO. Conversely, the positive phase of annual NAO and AO are linked with the regional transport of Alnus, Betula and Corylus from Western Iberian Peninsula. The positive phase of annual WeMO was also positively correlated with regional transport of Corylus from this area.

Cluster analysis of intradiurnal holm oak pollen cycles at peri-urban and rural sampling sites in southwestern Spain

The impact of regional and local weather and of local topography on intradiurnal variations in airborne pollen levels was assessed by analysing bi-hourly holm oak (Quercus ilex subsp. ballota (Desf.) Samp.) pollen counts at two sampling stations located 40 km apart, in southwestern Spain (Cordoba city and El Cabril nature reserve) over the period 2010-2011. Pollen grains were captured using Hirst-type volumetric spore traps. Analysis of regional weather conditions was based on the computation of backward trajectories using the HYSPLIT model. Sampling days were selected on the basis of phenological data; rainy days were eliminated, as were days lying outside a given range of percentiles (P95-P5). Analysis of cycles for the study period, as a whole, revealed differences between sampling sites, with peak bi-hourly pollen counts at night in Cordoba and at midday in El Cabril. Differences were also noted in the influence of surface weather conditions (temperature, relative humidity and wind). Cluster analysis of diurnal holm oak pollen cycles revealed the existence of five clusters at each sampling site. Analysis of backward trajectories highlighted specific regional air-flow patterns associated with each site. Findings indicated the contribution of both nearby and distant pollen sources to diurnal cycles. The combined use of cluster analysis and meteorological analysis proved highly suitable for charting the impact of local weather conditions on airborne pollen-count patterns. This method, and the specific tools used here, could be used not only to study diurnal variations in counts for other pollen types and in other biogeographical settings, but also in a number of other research fields involving airborne particle transport modelling, e.g. radionuclide transport in emergency preparedness exercises.

A new method for determining the sources of airborne particles

Air quality is a major issue for humans owing to the fact that the content of particles in the atmosphere has multiple implications for life quality, ecosystem dynamics and environment. Scientists are therefore particularly interested in discovering the origin of airborne particles. A new method has been developed to model the relationship between the emission surface and the total amount of airborne particles at a given distance, employing olive pollen and olive groves as examples. A third-degree polynomial relationship between the air particles at a particular point and the distance from the source was observed, signifying that the nearest area to a point is not that which is most correlated with its air features. This work allows the origin of airborne particles to be discovered and could be implemented in different disciplines related to atmospheric aerosol, thus providing a new approach with which to discover the dynamics of airborne particles.

Spatiotemporal analysis of olive flowering using geostatistical techniques

Analysis of flowering patterns in the olive (Olea europaea L.) are of considerable agricultural and ecological interest, and also provide valuable information for allergy-sufferers, enabling identification of the major sources of airborne pollen at any given moment by interpreting the aerobiological data recorded in pollen traps. The present spatiotemporal analysis of olive flowering in central Spain combined geostatistical techniques with the application of a Geographic Information Systems, and compared results for flowering intensity with airborne pollen records. The results were used to obtain continuous phenological maps which determined the pattern of the succession of the olive flowering. The results show also that, although the highest airborne olive-pollen counts were recorded during the greatest flowering intensity of the groves closest to the pollen trap, the counts recorded at the start of the pollen season were not linked to local olive groves, which had not yet begin to flower. To detect the remote sources of olive pollen several episodes of pollen recorded before the local flowering season were analysed using a HYSPLIT trajectory model and the findings showed that western, southern and southwestern winds transported pollen grains into the study area from earlier-flowering groves located outside the territory.

Improvement in the accuracy of back trajectories using WRF to identify pollen sources in southern Iberian Peninsula

Airborne pollen transport at micro-, meso-gamma and meso-beta scales must be studied by atmospheric models, having special relevance in complex terrain. In these cases, the accuracy of these models is mainly determined by the spatial resolution of the underlying meteorological dataset. This work examines how meteorological datasets determine the results obtained from atmospheric transport models used to describe pollen transport in the atmosphere. We investigate the effect of the spatial resolution when computing backward trajectories with the HYSPLIT model. We have used meteorological datasets from the WRF model with 27, 9 and 3 km resolutions and from the GDAS files with 1° resolution. This work allows characterizing atmospheric transport of Olea pollen in a region with complex flows. The results show that the complex terrain affects the trajectories and this effect varies with the different meteorological datasets. Overall, the change from GDAS to WRF-ARW inputs improves the analyses with the HYSPLIT model, thereby increasing the understanding the pollen episode. The results indicate that a spatial resolution of at least 9 km is needed to simulate atmospheric flows that are considerable affected by the relief of the landscape. The results suggest that the appropriate meteorological files should be considered when atmospheric models are used to characterize the atmospheric transport of pollen on micro-, meso-gamma and meso-beta scales. Furthermore, at these scales, the results are believed to be generally applicable for related areas such as the description of atmospheric transport of radionuclides or in the definition of nuclear-radioactivity emergency preparedness.

Identification of potential sources of airborne Olea pollen in the Southwest Iberian Peninsula

This study aims to determine the potential origin of Olea pollen recorded in Badajoz in the Southwest of the Iberian Peninsula during 2009-2011. This was achieved using a combination of daily average and diurnal (hourly) airborne Olea pollen counts recorded at Badajoz (south-western Spain) and Évora (south-eastern Portugal), an inventory of olive groves in the studied area and air mass trajectory calculations computed using the HYSPLIT model. Examining olive pollen episodes at Badajoz that had distinctly different diurnal cycles in olive pollen in relation to the mean, allowed us to identify three different scenarios where olive pollen can be transported to the city from either distant or nearby sources during conditions with slow air mass movements. Back trajectory analysis showed that olive pollen can be transported to Badajoz from the West on prevailing winds, either directly or on slow moving air masses, and from high densities of olive groves situated to the Southeast (e.g. Andalucía). Regional scale transport of olive pollen can result in increased nighttime concentrations of this important aeroallergen. This could be particularly important in Mediterranean countries where people can be outdoors during this time due to climate and lifestyle. Such studies that examine sources and the atmospheric transport of pollen are valuable for allergy sufferers and health care professionals because the information can be incorporated into forecasts, the outputs of which are used for avoiding exposure to aeroallergens and planning medication. The results of studies of this nature can also be used for examining gene flow in this important agricultural crop.

Statistical approach to the analysis of olive long-term pollen season trends in southern Spain

Analysis of long-term airborne pollen counts makes it possible not only to chart pollen-season trends but also to track changing patterns in flowering phenology. Changes in higher plant response over a long interval are considered among the most valuable bioindicators of climate change impact. Phenological-trend models can also provide information regarding crop production and pollen-allergen emission. The interest of this information makes essential the election of the statistical analysis for time series study. We analysed trends and variations in the olive flowering season over a 30-year period (1982-2011) in southern Europe (Córdoba, Spain), focussing on: annual Pollen Index (PI); Pollen Season Start (PSS), Peak Date (PD), Pollen Season End (PSE) and Pollen Season Duration (PSD). Apart from the traditional Linear Regression analysis, a Seasonal-Trend Decomposition procedure based on Loess (STL) and an ARIMA model were performed. Linear regression results indicated a trend toward delayed PSE and earlier PSS and PD, probably influenced by the rise in temperature. These changes are provoking longer flowering periods in the study area. The use of the STL technique provided a clearer picture of phenological behaviour. Data decomposition on pollination dynamics enabled the trend toward an alternate bearing cycle to be distinguished from the influence of other stochastic fluctuations. Results pointed to show a rising trend in pollen production. With a view toward forecasting future phenological trends, ARIMA models were constructed to predict PSD, PSS and PI until 2016. Projections displayed a better goodness of fit than those derived from linear regression. Findings suggest that olive reproductive cycle is changing considerably over the last 30years due to climate change. Further conclusions are that STL improves the effectiveness of traditional linear regression in trend analysis, and ARIMA models can provide reliable trend projections for future years taking into account the internal fluctuations in time series.

Biometeorological and autoregressive indices for predicting olive pollen intensity

This paper reports on modelling to predict airborne olive pollen season severity, expressed as a pollen index (PI), in Córdoba province (southern Spain) several weeks prior to the pollen season start. Using a 29-year database (1982-2010), a multivariate regression model based on five indices-the index-based model-was built to enhance the efficacy of prediction models. Four of the indices used were biometeorological indices: thermal index, pre-flowering hydric index, dormancy hydric index and summer index; the fifth was an autoregressive cyclicity index based on pollen data from previous years. The extreme weather events characteristic of the Mediterranean climate were also taken into account by applying different adjustment criteria. The results obtained with this model were compared with those yielded by a traditional meteorological-based model built using multivariate regression analysis of simple meteorological-related variables. The performance of the models (confidence intervals, significance levels and standard errors) was compared, and they were also validated using the bootstrap method. The index-based model built on biometeorological and cyclicity indices was found to perform better for olive pollen forecasting purposes than the traditional meteorological-based model.