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Kolendowicz L, Półrolniczak M. The influence of synoptic conditions on interdiurnal atmospheric pressure changes in Poland. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2025; 69:1015-1031. [PMID: 39971789 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-025-02874-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2024] [Revised: 12/05/2024] [Accepted: 02/09/2025] [Indexed: 02/21/2025]
Abstract
The aim of the presented study was to characterize the territory of Poland in terms of the frequency of occurrence of specific values of IAPC (interdiurnal atmospheric pressure changes) and to determine synoptic situations accompanying their particularly high values. The study is based on the daily mean atmospheric pressure data from the years 1966-2022 taking from 48 meteorological stations in Poland. In the presented paper four IAPC categories were used: A < 4.0 hPa (weak sense of change), B 4.1-8.0 (moderate sense of change), C 8.1-12.0 (strong sense of change), and D > 12.1 (very strong sense of change). Taking into account the negative impact on human health and well-being of the IAPC value, and especially its declines (conductive to the increase of suicides, heart and kidney diseases, asthma), the most unfavorable in this respect in Poland is the northern part of the country. The greatest frequency of synoptic situations causing the above-mentioned influence occurs in the cold half of the year, especially in winter. In turn the beneficial impact of the increase in IAPC on human health and well-being in terms of blood oxygenation and reduced suicide mortality caused by IAPC also occurs in the northern Poland. The frequency of synoptic situations felt in this respect is also highest in the cold half of the year.
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Affiliation(s)
- Leszek Kolendowicz
- Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Institute of Physical Geography and Environmental Planning, Faculty of Geographical and Geological Sciences, Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań, ul. Krygowskiego 10, Poznań, 61-680, Poland.
| | - Marek Półrolniczak
- Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Institute of Physical Geography and Environmental Planning, Faculty of Geographical and Geological Sciences, Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań, ul. Krygowskiego 10, Poznań, 61-680, Poland
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He P, Li C, Xu M, Guo R, Degeling AW, Pitkänen T, Bu Y, Zheng X, Zhang Y, Jia X, Tian A, Han C, Wang S, Chen T, Fang J, Sun S, Liu W, Cao J, Quan K, Cong Z, Ma D, Zong Q, Fu S, Yao S, Zhang H, Shi Q. Potential influence of geomagnetic activity on blood pressure statistical fluctuations at mid-magnetic latitudes. COMMUNICATIONS MEDICINE 2025; 5:143. [PMID: 40295716 PMCID: PMC12038039 DOI: 10.1038/s43856-025-00822-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2023] [Accepted: 03/25/2025] [Indexed: 04/30/2025] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Solar activity and the consequent geomagnetic activity (GMA) profoundly influence human biological rhythms and cardiovascular system functions. Although the response of blood pressure (BP) to GMA has attracted considerable attention, it is unclear whether the GMA can have an influence alone and how it occurs. METHODS In this six-year time series analysis, we collated over 500,000 BP measurements from two representative cities (Qingdao and Weihai) at mid-magnetic latitudes in China. Using various statistical methods, we analyzed the correlation between BP and the GMA (represented by Ap index) and their quasi-periodic fluctuations. Additionally, we conducted a comparative analysis of the influence of other environmental factors (air temperature and PM2.5) on BP. RESULTS The statistical BP level fluctuations correlate with the GMA. Both BP and the GMA index exhibit similar annual bimodal patterns and multiple periodicities, including 12-month and 6-month cycles, and an intermittent 3-month cycle. In contrast, other known environmental factors influencing BP such as air temperature and PM2.5 do not exhibit similar periodicities, particularly they lack 3-month cycles. In years with higher GMA levels, the BP shows stronger correlations with the Ap index and responds on a shorter timescale. Additionally, BP in females appears to be more strongly correlated with GMA. CONCLUSIONS Our findings highlight potential risks to individuals with hypertension with elevated GMA levels, deepen our understanding of GMA's role in human health, and offer insights for healthcare policymakers on the clinical significance of the geomagnetic environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pengzhi He
- Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Optical Astronomy and Solar-Terrestrial Environment, School of Space Science and Technology, Shandong University, Weihai, China
| | - Chen Li
- Department of Endocrinology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University (Qingdao), Qingdao, China
| | - Minlan Xu
- Department of Social Work, Shandong University, Weihai, China
| | - Ruilong Guo
- Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Optical Astronomy and Solar-Terrestrial Environment, School of Space Science and Technology, Shandong University, Weihai, China
| | - Alexander William Degeling
- Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Optical Astronomy and Solar-Terrestrial Environment, School of Space Science and Technology, Shandong University, Weihai, China
| | - Timo Pitkänen
- Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Optical Astronomy and Solar-Terrestrial Environment, School of Space Science and Technology, Shandong University, Weihai, China
| | - Yude Bu
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Shandong University, Weihai, China
| | - Xiangyun Zheng
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Weihai Municipal Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Weihai, China
| | - Yue Zhang
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Weihai Municipal Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Weihai, China
| | - Xianghong Jia
- Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Optical Astronomy and Solar-Terrestrial Environment, School of Space Science and Technology, Shandong University, Weihai, China
| | - Anmin Tian
- Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Optical Astronomy and Solar-Terrestrial Environment, School of Space Science and Technology, Shandong University, Weihai, China
| | - Chenyao Han
- Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Optical Astronomy and Solar-Terrestrial Environment, School of Space Science and Technology, Shandong University, Weihai, China
| | - Shifeng Wang
- College of Science, Tibet University, Lhasa, China
| | - Tianlu Chen
- Key Laboratory of Cosmic Rays, Tibet University, Ministry of Education, Lhasa, China
| | - Jiangping Fang
- School of Ecology and Environment, Tibet University, Lhasa, China
| | - Shaowei Sun
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Weihai Municipal Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Weihai, China
| | - Wenlong Liu
- School of Space and Earth Sciences, Beihang University, Beijing, China
| | - Jinbin Cao
- School of Space and Earth Sciences, Beihang University, Beijing, China
| | - Kimmen Quan
- Department of Oncology, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada
| | - Zhiyuan Cong
- School of Ecology and Environment, Tibet University, Lhasa, China
| | - Dedong Ma
- Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Qilu Hospital, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Qiugang Zong
- School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Suiyan Fu
- School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Shutao Yao
- Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Optical Astronomy and Solar-Terrestrial Environment, School of Space Science and Technology, Shandong University, Weihai, China
| | - Huanhu Zhang
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Weihai Municipal Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Weihai, China.
| | - Quanqi Shi
- Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Optical Astronomy and Solar-Terrestrial Environment, School of Space Science and Technology, Shandong University, Weihai, China.
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Gaisenok O, Gaisenok D, Bogachev S. The Influence of Geomagnetic Storms on the Risks of Developing Myocardial Infarction, Acute Coronary Syndrome, and Stroke: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. J Med Phys 2025; 50:8-13. [PMID: 40256184 PMCID: PMC12005662 DOI: 10.4103/jmp.jmp_122_24] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2024] [Revised: 09/21/2024] [Accepted: 12/01/2024] [Indexed: 04/22/2025] Open
Abstract
The aim of this study was to determine the influence of geomagnetic storms (GS) on the risks of developing myocardial infarction (MI), acute coronary syndrome (ACS), and stroke. The systematic review was conducted by searching PubMed database from March 16, 2023, to March 18, 2023, independently by two researchers. Out of 644 articles, a total of 6 studies were selected based on the inclusion/exclusion criteria and included in the systematic review. This systematic review confirmed the effect of GS on the risks of MI/ACS (mean relative risk [RR] 1.3-1.5) and stroke (mean RR 1.25-1.6). At the same time, it is worthnoting the limitations of this systematic review: small number of included studies and their differences in methodology, statistical analysis, and methods for assessing geomagnetic activity. The main mechanism of the negative impact of GS on the functioning of the cardiovascular system and the risk of cardiovascular complications was associated with influence on circadian biological rhythms, heart rate variability, blood pressure, and microcirculation. The authors believe that when planning further research in this area, it is necessary to correctly choose the type of local, regional or planetary geomagnetic index, depending on the goals of the study. It is also necessary to take into account the influence of concomitant somatic pathology, drug therapy, as well as the peculiarities of the individual temporary reaction of the human body to GS.
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Affiliation(s)
- Oleg Gaisenok
- Department of Therapeutic, United Hospital with Outpatient Clinic, Moscow, Russia
- Department of Research, Gefest Study Research Group, Moscow, Russia
| | - Daria Gaisenok
- Department of Research, Gefest Study Research Group, Moscow, Russia
| | - Sergey Bogachev
- Department of Space Plasma, Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
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Henshaw DL, Philips A. A mechanistic understanding of human magnetoreception validates the phenomenon of electromagnetic hypersensitivity (EHS). Int J Radiat Biol 2024; 101:186-204. [PMID: 39652433 DOI: 10.1080/09553002.2024.2435329] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2024] [Revised: 11/08/2024] [Accepted: 11/22/2024] [Indexed: 01/25/2025]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Human electromagnetic hypersensitivity (EHS) or electrosensitivity (ES) symptoms in response to anthropogenic electromagnetic fields (EMFs) at levels below current international safety standards are generally considered to be nocebo effects by conventional medical science. In the wider field of magnetoreception in biology, our understanding of mechanisms and processes of magnetic field (MF) interactions is more advanced. METHODS We consulted a range of publication databases to identify the key advances in understanding of magnetoreception across the wide animal kingdom of life. RESULTS We examined primary MF/EMF sensing and subsequent coupling to the nervous system and the brain. Magnetite particles in our brains and other tissues can transduce MFs/EMFs, including at microwave frequencies. The radical pair mechanism (RPM) is accepted as the main basis of the magnetic compass in birds and other species, acting via cryptochrome protein molecules in the eye. In some cases, extraordinary sensitivity is observed, several thousand times below that of the geomagnetic field. Bird compass disorientation by radio frequency (RF) EMFs is known. CONCLUSIONS Interdisciplinary research has established that all forms of life can respond to MFs. Research shows that human cryptochromes exhibit magnetosensitivity. Most existing provocation studies have failed to confirm EHS as an environmental illness. We attribute this to a fundamental lack of understanding of the mechanisms and processes involved, which have resulted in the design of inappropriate and inadequate tests. We conclude that future research into EHS needs a quantum mechanistic approach on the basis of existing biological knowledge of the magnetosensitivity of living organisms.
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Affiliation(s)
- Denis L Henshaw
- Atmospheric Chemistry Group, School of Chemistry, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Alasdair Philips
- Independent Scientist, Brambling, Beeswing, Dumfries, Scotland, UK
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Mayrovitz HN. Linkages Between Geomagnetic Activity and Blood Pressure. Cureus 2023; 15:e45637. [PMID: 37868483 PMCID: PMC10589055 DOI: 10.7759/cureus.45637] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2023] [Accepted: 09/20/2023] [Indexed: 10/24/2023] Open
Abstract
This review aims to critically examine and present evidence for and against potential linkages between geomagnetic activity and its effects on blood pressure (BP). Four databases were searched for peer-reviewed papers written in English: PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, and Biomedical Reference Collection. Retrieved titles were first screened for potential relevance followed by an abstract review for further clarifications if warranted. The preponderance of the reported evidence is consistent with the concept that space weather and related events that cause sufficiently large changes in the geomagnetic field (GMF) can impact BP. The associated BP change in most but not all cases is one in which both systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure increase, with SBP appearing to be more consistently involved. The magnitude of the reported BP increase ranges from about 3 to 8 mmHg depending on the intensity of the geomagnetic activity. The initiation of these BP changes has been variably reported to occur shortly before the GMF change or in synchrony with the abrupt change in the GMF. Such GMF-linked BP changes are not present in all persons and there appears to be increased sensitivity in women and in persons with co-existing hypertension. The utility of these findings in assessing or treating persons with known or suspected hypertension remains to be determined via future research. Further, research directed at determining the factors that determine responders from non-responders to GMF changes is warranted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Harvey N Mayrovitz
- Medical Education, Nova Southeastern University Dr. Kiran C. Patel College of Allopathic Medicine, Davie, USA
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Motlogeloa O, Fitchett JM. Climate and human health: a review of publication trends in the International Journal of Biometeorology. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2023:10.1007/s00484-023-02466-8. [PMID: 37129619 PMCID: PMC10153057 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-023-02466-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2022] [Revised: 03/06/2023] [Accepted: 03/27/2023] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
The climate-health nexus is well documented in the field of biometeorology. Since its inception, Biometeorology has in many ways become the umbrella under which much of this collaborative research has been conducted. Whilst a range of review papers have considered the development of biometeorological research and its coverage in this journal, and a few have reviewed the literature on specific diseases, none have focused on the sub-field of climate and health as a whole. Since its first issue in 1957, the International Journal of Biometeorology has published a total of 2183 papers that broadly consider human health and its relationship with climate. In this review, we identify a total of 180 (8.3%, n = 2183) of these papers that specifically focus on the intersection between meteorological variables and specific, named diagnosable diseases, and explore the publication trends thereof. The number of publications on climate and health in the journal increases considerably since 2011. The largest number of publications on the topic was in 2017 (18) followed by 2021 (17). Of the 180 studies conducted, respiratory diseases accounted for 37.2% of the publications, cardiovascular disease 17%, and cerebrovascular disease 11.1%. The literature on climate and health in the journal is dominated by studies from the global North, with a particular focus on Asia and Europe. Only 2.2% and 8.3% of these studies explore empirical evidence from the African continent and South America respectively. These findings highlight the importance of continued research on climate and human health, especially in low- and lower-middle-income countries, the populations of which are more vulnerable to climate-sensitive illnesses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ogone Motlogeloa
- School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Jennifer M Fitchett
- School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
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Wang P, Cheng S, Song W, Li Y, Liu J, Zhao Q, Luo S. Daily Meteorological Parameters Influence the Risk of Intracerebral Hemorrhage in a Subtropical Monsoon Basin Climate. Risk Manag Healthc Policy 2021; 14:4833-4841. [PMID: 34916860 PMCID: PMC8667755 DOI: 10.2147/rmhp.s331314] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/14/2021] [Accepted: 11/02/2021] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Background and Purpose The correlation between meteorological parameters and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) occurrence is controversial. Our research explored the effect of daily meteorological parameters on ICH risk in a subtropical monsoon basin climate. Methods We retrospectively analyzed patients with ICH in a teaching hospital. Daily meteorological parameters including temperature (TEM), atmospheric pressure (PRE), relative humidity (RHU), and sunshine duration (SSD) were collected, with the diurnal variation (daily maximum minus minimum) and day-to-day variation (average of the day minus the previous day) calculated to represent their fluctuation. We adopted a time-stratified case-crossover approach and selected conditional logistic regression to explore the effect of meteorological parameters on ICH risk. The influence of monthly mean temperature proceeded via stratified analysis. Air pollutants were gathered as covariates. Results Our study included 1052 eligible cases with ICH. In a single-factor model, the risk of ICH decreased by 5.9% (P<0.001) for each 1°C higher of the daily mean TEM, and the risk increased by 2.4% (P=0.002) for each 1hPa higher of the daily mean PRE. Prolongation of daily SSD inhibited the risk of ICH, and OR was 0.959 (P=0.007). The risk was raised by 7.5% (P=0.0496) with a 1°C increment of day-to-day variation of TEM. In a two-factor model, the effect of daily mean TEM or daily SSD on ICH risk was still statistically significant after adjusting another factor. The influence of meteorological parameters on ICH risk continued in cold months but disappeared in warm months after stratified analysis. Conclusion This research indicates daily TEM and SSD had an inverse correlation to ICH risk in a subtropical monsoon basin climate. They were independent when adjusted by another factor. Daily PRE and day-to-day TEM variation were positively related to ICH risk. The correlation of daily meteorological factors on ICH risk was affected by the monthly thermal background.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peng Wang
- Department of Neurosurgery, Chengdu Fifth People's Hospital/Affiliated Chengdu No.5 People's Hospital of Chengdu University of TCM, Chengdu, People's Republic of China
| | - Shuwen Cheng
- Department of Neurosurgery, Chengdu Fifth People's Hospital/Affiliated Chengdu No.5 People's Hospital of Chengdu University of TCM, Chengdu, People's Republic of China
| | - Weizheng Song
- Department of Neurosurgery, Chengdu Fifth People's Hospital/Affiliated Chengdu No.5 People's Hospital of Chengdu University of TCM, Chengdu, People's Republic of China
| | - Yaxin Li
- West China Fourth Hospital/West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu, People's Republic of China
| | - Jia Liu
- Department of Neurosurgery, Chengdu Fifth People's Hospital/Affiliated Chengdu No.5 People's Hospital of Chengdu University of TCM, Chengdu, People's Republic of China
| | - Qiang Zhao
- Department of Neurosurgery, Chengdu Fifth People's Hospital/Affiliated Chengdu No.5 People's Hospital of Chengdu University of TCM, Chengdu, People's Republic of China
| | - Shuang Luo
- Department of Neurosurgery, Chengdu Fifth People's Hospital/Affiliated Chengdu No.5 People's Hospital of Chengdu University of TCM, Chengdu, People's Republic of China
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The Possible Effect of Space Weather Factors on Various Physiological Systems of the Human Organism. ATMOSPHERE 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos12030346] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
A systematic review of heliobiological studies of the last 25 years devoted to the study of the potential influence of space weather factors on human health and well-being was carried out. We proposed three criteria (coordinates), according to which the work on solar–biospheric relations was systematized: the time scale of data sampling (years, days, hours, minutes); the level of organization of the biological system under study (population, group, individual, body system); and the degree of system response (norm, adaptation, failure of adaptation (illness), disaster (death)). This systematic review demonstrates that three parameters mentioned above are closely related in the existing heliobiological studies: the larger the selected time scale, the higher the level of estimated biological system organization and the stronger the potential response degree is. The long-term studies are devoted to the possible influence of solar activity on population disasters, i.e., significant increases in morbidity and mortality. On a daily scale, a probable effect of geomagnetic storms and other space weather events on short-term local outbreaks of morbidity is shown as well as on cases of deterioration in people functional state. On an intraday scale, in the regular functioning mode, the heart and brain rhythms of healthy people turn to be synchronized with geomagnetic field variations in some frequency ranges, which apparently is the necessary organism’s existence element. The applicability of different space weather indices at different data sampling rates, the need to take into account the contribution of meteorological factors, and the prospects for an individual approach in heliobiology are discussed. The modern important results of experiments on modeling the action of magnetic storms in laboratory conditions and the substantiation of possible theoreical mechanisms are described. These results provide an experimental and theoretical basis for studies of possible connections of space weather and human health.
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Herbowski L. From paradigm to paradox: divergency between intracranial pressure and intracranial pulse pressure during atmospheric pressure fall: a case study. J Neurosurg Sci 2019; 66:103-111. [PMID: 31680504 DOI: 10.23736/s0390-5616.19.04737-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The main objectives are to determine relation between intracranial pressure and its amplitude and to ascertain meteorological variables as possible confounding factors. This is a retrospective observational study of a patient with suspicion of normotensive hydrocephalus. METHODS The intracranial pressure, the blood pressure, atmospheric pressure and geomagnetic activity were continuously monitored capturing extraordinary sudden and unexpected atmospheric pressure fall. The physiological changes exceptionally observed during suddenweather changes were described by means of statistical parameters. The data from 73 consecutive hourly measurements was eligible for this analysis. It contained 1022 data points corresponding to all recorded parameters, both climate and physiological ones. RESULTS After initial stable period, the atmospheric pressure started to decrease from 767 mmHg to 746 mmHg. In parallel, the mean intracranial pressure increased significantly from 4 mmHg to 14 mmHg. Thus, the mean intracranial pressure changed inversely during atmospheric pressure drop. Whereas mean intracranial pressure increased by 10 mmHg during atmospheric pressure fall, the intracranial amplitude decreased by 5 mmHg. On timescale of several dozen hours in this study, the short-term periodic diurnal variations of intracranial pressure and blood pressure were displayed. The association between diurnal atmospheric pressure oscillation and geomagnetic activity variation was observed. Both intracranial and blood pressure variations differed significantly between day and night. CONCLUSIONS This study shows that increasing intracranial pressure is associated with its paradoxically decreasing amplitude under the influence of sudden and unexpected barometric pressure fall. This study suggests that abrupt changes in atmospheric pressure might impact intracranial pressure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Leszek Herbowski
- Neurosurgery and Neurotraumatology Department, District Hospital, Szczecin, Poland -
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Pishchalnikov R, Gurfinkel Y, Sarimov R, Vasin A, Sasonko M, Matveeva T, Binhi V, Baranov M. Cardiovascular response as a marker of environmental stress caused by variations in geomagnetic field and local weather. Biomed Signal Process Control 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.bspc.2019.03.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
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Moriña D, Serra I, Puig P, Corral Á. Probability estimation of a Carrington-like geomagnetic storm. Sci Rep 2019; 9:2393. [PMID: 30787360 PMCID: PMC6382914 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-38918-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2018] [Accepted: 01/09/2019] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Intense geomagnetic storms can cause severe damage to electrical systems and communications. This work proposes a counting process with Weibull inter-occurrence times in order to estimate the probability of extreme geomagnetic events. It is found that the scale parameter of the inter-occurrence time distribution grows exponentially with the absolute value of the intensity threshold defining the storm, whereas the shape parameter keeps rather constant. The model is able to forecast the probability of occurrence of an event for a given intensity threshold; in particular, the probability of occurrence on the next decade of an extreme event of a magnitude comparable or larger than the well-known Carrington event of 1859 is explored, and estimated to be between 0.46% and 1.88% (with a 95% confidence), a much lower value than those reported in the existing literature.
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Affiliation(s)
- David Moriña
- Barcelona Graduate School of Mathematics (BGSMath), Edifici C, Campus Bellaterra, E-08193, Barcelona, Spain. .,Departament de Matemàtiques, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), E-08193, Barcelona, Spain. .,Unit of Infections and Cancer - Information and Interventions (UNIC - I&I), Cancer Epidemiology Research Program (CERP), Catalan Institute of Oncology (ICO)-IDIBELL, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain.
| | - Isabel Serra
- Barcelona Graduate School of Mathematics (BGSMath), Edifici C, Campus Bellaterra, E-08193, Barcelona, Spain.,Departament de Matemàtiques, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), E-08193, Barcelona, Spain.,Centre de Recerca Matemàtica, Edifici C, Campus Bellaterra, E-08193, Barcelona, Spain.,Barcelona Supercomputing Center, E-08034, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Pedro Puig
- Barcelona Graduate School of Mathematics (BGSMath), Edifici C, Campus Bellaterra, E-08193, Barcelona, Spain.,Departament de Matemàtiques, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), E-08193, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Álvaro Corral
- Barcelona Graduate School of Mathematics (BGSMath), Edifici C, Campus Bellaterra, E-08193, Barcelona, Spain.,Departament de Matemàtiques, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), E-08193, Barcelona, Spain.,Centre de Recerca Matemàtica, Edifici C, Campus Bellaterra, E-08193, Barcelona, Spain.,Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Josefstädter Straβe 39, 1080, Vienna, Austria
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