Impact of climate on the population dynamics of an alpine ungulate: a long-term study of the Tatra chamois Rupicapra rupicapra tatrica

Birth date determines early calf survival in migratory caribou

The decline of most caribou (Rangifer tarandus) populations underlines the need to understand the determinants of key demographic parameters. In migratory caribou, we have limited information on rates and drivers of pre-weaning mortality. We fitted 60 pregnant females of the Rivière-aux-Feuilles caribou herd with GPS camera collars to track the survival of calves from birth to weaning in 2016-2018. Over the three years, calf survival rate before weaning, i.e. to 01-Sep, approximately three months of age, was 0.63 (CI 0.50-0.77). Summer mortality risk was mainly influenced by calf birth date, with calves born earlier in the calving season having a lower mortality risk than those born later. Mortality also increased when calves experienced low or high temperature during calving. This study provides the first estimates of pre-weaning survival of migratory caribou calves in this herd, illustrating the value of new technologies to collect data otherwise difficult to obtain in widely distributed migratory populations. This approach can easily be extended to other large herbivores and predators. Our study brings new insights on how climate change may affect summer juvenile survival given the increased temperatures and faster changes in plant phenology expected in the future.

Coursing hyenas and stalking lions: The potential for inter- and intraspecific interactions

Resource partitioning promotes coexistence among guild members, and carnivores reduce interference competition through behavioral mechanisms that promote spatio-temporal separation. We analyzed sympatric lion and spotted hyena movements and activity patterns to ascertain the mechanisms facilitating their coexistence within semi-arid and wetland ecosystems. We identified recurrent high-use (revisitation) and extended stay (duration) areas within home ranges, as well as correlated movement-derived measures of inter- and intraspecific interactions with environmental variables. Spatial overlaps among lions and hyenas expanded during the wet season, and occurred at edges of home ranges, around water-points, along pathways between patches of high-use areas. Lions shared more of their home ranges with spotted hyenas in arid ecosystems, but shared more of their ranges with conspecifics in mesic environments. Despite shared space use, we found evidence for subtle temporal differences in the nocturnal movement and activity patterns between the two predators, suggesting a fine localized-scale avoidance strategy. Revisitation frequency and duration within home ranges were influenced by interspecific interactions, after land cover categories and diel cycles. Intraspecific interactions were also important for lions and, important for hyenas were moon illumination and ungulates attracted to former anthrax carcass sites in Etosha, with distance to water in Chobe/Linyanti. Recursion and duration according to locales of competitor probabilities were similar among female lions and both sexes of hyenas, but different for male lions. Our results suggest that lions and spotted hyenas mediate the potential for interference competition through subtle differences in temporal activity, fine-scale habitat use differentiation, and localized reactive-avoidance behaviors. These findings enhance our understanding of the potential effects of interspecific interactions among large carnivore space-use patterns within an apex predator system and show adaptability across heterogeneous and homogeneous environments. Future conservation plans should emphasize the importance of inter- and intraspecific competition within large carnivore communities, particularly moderating such effects within increasingly fragmented landscapes.

Habitat and climate shape growth patterns in a mountain ungulate

Uptake and use of energy are of key importance for animals living in temperate environments that undergo strong seasonal changes in forage quality and quantity. In ungulates, energy intake strongly affects body mass gain, an important component of individual fitness. Energy allocation among life-history traits can be affected by internal and external factors. Here, we investigate large-scale variation in body growth patterns of Alpine chamois Rupicapra rupicapra rupicapra, in relation to sex, age, temperature, and habitat variations across 31 (sub)populations in the Central European Alps. Taking advantage of an exceptionally large dataset (n = 178,175) of chamois hunted over 27 consecutive years between 1993 and 2019 in mountain ranges with different proportions of forest cover, we found that (i) patterns of body mass growth differ between mountain ranges, with lower body mass but faster mass growth with increasing proportion of forest cover and that (ii) the effect of spring and summer temperatures on changes in body growth patterns are larger in mountain ranges with lower forest cover compared to mountain ranges with higher forest cover. Our results show that patterns of body mass growth within a species are more plastic than expected and depend on environmental and climatic conditions. The recent decline in body mass observed in Alpine chamois populations may have greater impacts on populations living above the treeline than in forests, which may buffer against the effects of increasing temperatures on life-history traits.

Expanding or shrinking? range shifts in wild ungulates under climate change in Pamir-Karakoram mountains, Pakistan

Climate change is expected to impact a large number of organisms in many ecosystems, including several threatened mammals. A better understanding of climate impacts on species can make conservation efforts more effective. The Himalayan ibex (Capra ibex sibirica) and blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur) are economically important wild ungulates in northern Pakistan because they are sought-after hunting trophies. However, both species are threatened due to several human-induced factors, and these factors are expected to aggravate under changing climate in the High Himalayas. In this study, we investigated populations of ibex and blue sheep in the Pamir-Karakoram mountains in order to (i) update and validate their geographical distributions through empirical data; (ii) understand range shifts under climate change scenarios; and (iii) predict future habitats to aid long-term conservation planning. Presence records of target species were collected through camera trapping and sightings in the field. We constructed Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model on presence record and six key climatic variables to predict the current and future distributions of ibex and blue sheep. Two representative concentration pathways (4.5 and 8.5) and two-time projections (2050 and 2070) were used for future range predictions. Our results indicated that ca. 37% and 9% of the total study area (Gilgit-Baltistan) was suitable under current climatic conditions for Himalayan ibex and blue sheep, respectively. Annual mean precipitation was a key determinant of suitable habitat for both ungulate species. Under changing climate scenarios, both species will lose a significant part of their habitats, particularly in the Himalayan and Hindu Kush ranges. The Pamir-Karakoram ranges will serve as climate refugia for both species. This area shall remain focus of future conservation efforts to protect Pakistan’s mountain ungulates.

Disentangling demographic effects of red deer on chamois population dynamics

Investigating the impact of ecological factors on sex- and age-specific vital rates is essential to understand animal population dynamics and detect the potential for interactions between sympatric species. We used block count data and autoregressive linear models to investigate variation in birth rate, kid survival, female survival, and male survival in a population of Alpine chamois Rupicapra rupicapra rupicapra monitored over 27 years within the Stelvio National Park, Central Italian Alps, as function of climatic variables, density dependence, and interspecific competition with red deer Cervus elaphus. We also used path analysis to assess the indirect effect of deer abundance on chamois growth rate mediated by each demographic parameter. Based on previous findings, we predicted that birth rate at [t] would negatively relate to red deer abundance at year [t - 1]; survival rates between [t] and [t + 1] would negatively relate to red deer abundance at year [t - 1] and to the interactive effect of winter precipitation at [t + 1] and chamois density at [t]. Our results showed that birth rate was positively related to spring-summer precipitation in the previous year, but this effect was hampered by increasing red deer abundance. Kid and female survival rates were negatively related to the combined effect of chamois abundance and winter precipitation. Male and female survival rates were negatively related to lagged red deer abundance. The path analysis supported a negative indirect effect of red deer abundance on chamois growth rate mediated by birth rate and female survival. Our results suggest that chamois population dynamics was largely explained by the synergistic effect of density dependence and winter harshness, as well as by interspecific competition with red deer, whose effects were seemingly stronger on the kid-female segment of the population.

Seasonal and annual fluctuations of deer populations estimated by a Bayesian state-space model

Deer overabundance is a contributing factor in the degradation of plant communities and ecosystems worldwide. The management and conservation of the deer-affected ecosystems requires us to urgently grasp deer population trends and to identify the factors that affect them. In this study, we developed a Bayesian state–space model to estimate the population dynamics of sika deer (Cervus nippon) in a cool-temperate forest in Japan, where wolves (Canis lupus hodophilax) are extinct. The model was based on field data collected from block count surveys, road count surveys by vehicles, mortality surveys during the winter, and nuisance control for 12 years (2007–2018). We clarified the seasonal and annual fluctuation of the deer population. We found a peak of deer abundance (2010) over 12 years. In 2011 the estimated deer abundance decreased drastically and has remained at a low level then. The deer abundance gradually increased from April to December during 2013–2018. The seasonal fluctuation we detected could reflect the seasonal migration pattern of deer and the population recruitment through fawn births in early summer. In our model, snowfall accumulation, which can be a lethal factor for deer, may have slightly affected their mortality during the winter. Although we could not detect a direct effect of snow on population dynamics, snowfall decrease due to global warming may decelerate the winter migration of deer; subsequently, deer staying on-site may intensively forage evergreen perennial plants during the winter season. The nuisance control affected population dynamics. Even in wildlife protection areas and national parks where hunting is regulated, nuisance control could be effective in buffering the effect of deer browsing on forest ecosystems.