Estimating survival in advanced cancer: a comparison of estimates made by oncologists and patients

Estimating scenarios for survival time in patients with advanced melanoma receiving immunotherapy and targeted therapy

BACKGROUND

We aim to provide survival scenario estimates for patients with advanced melanoma starting targeted therapies and immunotherapies.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We sought randomized trials of targeted therapies and immunotherapies for advanced melanoma and recorded the following percentiles (represented survival scenario) from each overall survival (OS) curve: 90th (worst-case), 75th (lower-typical), 50th (median), 25th (upper-typical), and 10th (best-case). We tested whether these scenarios can be estimated for each OS curve by multiplying its median by 4 multiples: 0.25 (worst-case), 0.5 (lower-typical), 2 (upper-typical), and 3 (best-case).

RESULTS

We identified 15 trials with 8025 patients. For first-line combination targeted therapy treatment groups, the median (interquartile range, IQR) in months for each percentile was: 90th, 6.2 (6.0-6.5); 75th, 11.3 (11.3-11.4); and median, 24.4 (23.5-25.3). For the first-line combination immunotherapy treatment group, the percentiles in months were: 90th, 3.9 (2.8-4.5); 75th, 13.4 (10.1-15.4), median 73 (not applicable). In targeted therapy groups, simple multiples of the median OS were accurate for estimating the 90th percentile in 80%; 75th percentile in 40%; 25th percentile in 100%. In immunotherapy groups, these multiples were accurate at 0% for the 90th percentile, and 43% for the 75th percentile. The 90th percentile (worst-case scenario) was better estimated as 1/6× median OS, and the 75th percentile (lower-typical) as 1/3× median OS.

CONCLUSIONS

Simple multiples of the median OS are a useful framework to estimate scenarios for survival for patients receiving targeted therapies, not immunotherapy. Longer follow-up is required to estimate upper-typical and best-case scenarios.

Accuracy of oncologists' estimates of expected survival time in advanced cancer

BACKGROUND

To evaluate the claim that oncologists overestimate expected survival time (EST) in advanced cancer.

METHODS

We pooled 7 prospective studies in which observed survival time (OST) was compared with EST (median survival in a group of similar patients estimated at baseline by the treating oncologist). We hypothesized that EST would be well calibrated (approximately 50% of EST longer than OST) and imprecise (<30% of EST within 0.67 to 1.33 of OST), and that multiples of EST would provide well-calibrated scenarios for survival time: worst-case (approximately 10% of OST <1/4 of EST), typical (approximately 50% of OST within half to double EST), and best-case (approximately 10% of OST >3 times EST). Associations between baseline characteristics and calibration of EST were assessed.

RESULTS

Characteristics of 1,211 patients: median age 66 years, male 61%, primary site lung (40%) and upper gastrointestinal (16%). The median OST was 8 months, and EST was 9 months. Oncologists' estimates of EST were well calibrated (50% longer than OST) and imprecise (28% within 0.67 to 1.33 of OST). Scenarios for survival time based on simple multiples of EST were well calibrated: 8% of patients had an OST less than 1/4 their EST (worst-case), 56% had an OST within half to double their EST (typical), and 11% had an OST greater than 3 times their EST (best-case). Calibration was independent of age, sex, and cancer type.

CONCLUSIONS

Oncologists were no more likely to overestimate survival time than to underestimate it. Simple multiples of EST provide well-calibrated estimates of worst-case, typical, and best-case scenarios for survival.

Prognostic awareness in Japanese patients with advanced cancer: a follow-up cohort study

BACKGROUND

Patients with advanced cancer have been reported to be more likely to receive goal-concordant care if they have accurate prognostic awareness. However, many patients do not have this awareness. This study aimed to examine the prognostic awareness among Japanese patients with advanced cancer.

METHODS

This single-center, follow-up cohort study included Japanese patients with advanced cancer who received chemotherapy at Tohoku University Hospital between January 2015 and January 2016. Patients were surveyed at enrollment and followed up for clinical events for 5 years thereafter. We compared (i) the patients' prognostic awareness with both actual survival time and physician's prediction of survival and (ii) physician's prediction of survival time with actual survival. Factors associated with accurate prognostic awareness were identified by univariate analysis.

RESULTS

Of the 133 patients eligible for the study, 57 patients were analyzed. Only 10 (17.5%) patients had accurate prognostic awareness. Forty-three patients (75.4%) were optimistic about their prognosis; >80% of patients were more optimistic than their physicians about their prognosis. The physicians' predictions were accurate in for patients (37.5%). Accurate prognostic awareness was associated with physician's explanation of the prognosis and patients' perception of a good death.

CONCLUSIONS

A majority of the patients with advanced cancer in this study had prognostic awareness that was more optimistic in comparison with their actual survival, and most were more optimistic than their physicians about their prognosis. Further research is needed to develop programs to facilitate the discussion of life expectancy with patients in a manner that is consistent with their preferences.

Using three scenarios to explain life expectancy in advanced cancer: attitudes of patients, family members, and other healthcare professionals

AIM

To evaluate a web-based tool for estimating and explaining three scenarios for expected survival time to people with advanced cancer (patients), their family members (FMs), and other healthcare professionals (HCPs).

METHODS

Thirty-three oncologists estimated the "median survival of a group of similar patients" for patients seeking quantitative prognostic information. The web-based tool generated worst-case, most likely, and best-case scenarios for survival based on the oncologist's estimate. Oncologists presented the scenarios to each patient and provided a printed summary to patients, FMs, and HCPs. Attitudes to the information were assessed by questionnaires. Observed survival for each patient was compared with the oncologist's estimated survival and the three scenarios.

RESULTS

Prognosis was discussed with 222 patients: median age 67 years; 61% male; most common primary sites pancreas 15%, non-small-cell lung 15%, and colorectal 12%. The median (range) for observed survival times was 9 months (0.5-43) and for oncologist's estimated survival times was 12 months (2-96). Ninety-one percent of patients, 91% of FMs, and 84% of HCPs agreed that it was helpful having life expectancy explained as three scenarios. The majority (77%) of patients judged the information presented about their life expectancy to be the same or better than they had expected before the consultation. The survival estimates met a priori criteria for calibration, precision, and accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients, FMs, and HCPs found it helpful to receive personalized prognostic information formatted as three scenarios for survival. It was feasible, acceptable, and safe to use a web-based resource to do this.

'I Don't Have a Crystal Ball' - Why Do Doctors Tend to Avoid Prognostication?

Uncertainty, fear to harm the patient, discomfort handling the discussion and lack of time are the most cited barriers to prognostic disclosure. Physicians can be reassured that patients desire the truth about prognosis and can manage the discussion without harm, including the uncertainty of the information, if approached in a sensitive manner. Conversational guides could provide support in preparing such difficult conversations. Communicating 'with realism and hope' is possible, and anxiety is normal for both patients and clinicians during prognostic disclosure. As a clinician pointed out: 'I had asked a mentor once if it ever got easier. - No. But you get better at it.'

Exploring the needs and experiences of palliative home care from the perspectives of patients with advanced cancer in China: a qualitative study

PURPOSE

The needs and experiences of palliative home care for patients with advanced cancer have received little research attention. We aimed to explore the needs and experiences of palliative home care among patients with advanced cancer in China.

METHODS

This qualitative study was conducted using semi-structured interviews with patients with advanced cancer. Participants (n = 15) were recruited from an oncology palliative care unit and a hospice outpatient unit, and were selected using purposive sampling from October 2019 to March 2020. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim, and subjected to thematic analysis. Two researchers coded the interviews independently in NVivo 12 and developed major themes and subthemes by inductive and constant comparison.

RESULTS

Five themes were identified: (1) physical need; (2) psychological experience; (3) spiritual need; (4) social need; and (5) information need. Patients need to manage their symptoms (especially cancer pain), prolong life as long as possible, reconstruct their attitudes to adapt to their roles, be socially supported, be respected, maintain spiritual peace, and obtain more information about illness and home care.

CONCLUSIONS

The current palliative home care services are imperfect, and patients face substantial challenges, including physical symptoms, psychological/spiritual distress, and inadequate social support and information. Our findings may provide evidence and a reference for the development of palliative home care in China.

Discussing Prognosis with Empathy to Cancer Patients

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Our goal was to provide healthcare professionals (HCPs) with evidence-based data about what can be done to handle prognostic discussions with empathy.

RECENT FINDINGS

First, disclosing prognosis involves a good reason to do so and making sure that the patient will be able to process the discussion. Second, communication tips are given for the three dimensions of empathy: "establishing rapport with the patient," which should not be overlooked; the emotional dimension, which involves an accurate understanding of the patient and communication skills; and the "active/positive" dimension which is about giving hope, explaining things clearly and helping patients take control with shared decision-making and a planned future. Although communication tips are helpful, empathy training should be based more on the development of HCPs' emotional skills, in order to help them regulate their emotions and thus be more comfortable with those of patients and families. Furthermore, research into empathy toward minorities and relatives is needed.

Development and validation of a novel prognostic score for elderly head-and-neck cancer patients undergoing radiotherapy or chemoradiation

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

To establish a clinically feasible prognostic score and nomogram based on easily accessible clinical data that will aid decision-making in elderly head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) patients undergoing (chemo)radiotherapy.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

284 elderly HNSCC patients (≥65 years) undergoing curative (chemo)radiotherapy were included for the development of a score predicting overall survival (OS) based on the beta regression coefficients from significant parameters in a multivariate Cox regression analysis with p < 0.1 as inclusion criterion. A second, external cohort of 217 elderly HNSCC patients receiving (chemo)radiotherapy was used for validation. Using the aggregated data (n = 501), a nomogram was developed to predict 2- and 4-year OS.

RESULTS

Karnofsky Performance Status (HR = 2.654; p < 0.001), Charlson Comorbidity Index (HR = 2.598; p < 0.001) and baseline C-reactive protein (CRP) level (HR = 1.634; p = 0.068) were prognostic for OS in the multivariate analysis. An OS score based on beta regression coefficients was created, in which reduced performance status, increased comorbidity burden and increased CRP levels were included, leading to 3 distinct survival groups. The median OS for the 3 groups amounted to 107, 28 and 6 months, respectively (p < 0.001). The developed score was able to significantly differentiate between a favorable (median OS = 130 months), intermediate (29 months) and unfavorable prognosis (9 months) also in the external validation cohort (p = 0.005).

CONCLUSION

We propose a novel, validated prognostic score based on easily accessible clinical data allowing stratification between prognostic groups of elderly HNSCC patients receiving (chemo)radiotherapy. The derived nomogram for the prediction of 2-year and 4-year OS may aid decision-making for this vulnerable population.