A simple prediction score for in-hospital mortality in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Similar Effect of Vonoprazan and Oral Proton Pump Inhibitors for Preventing Rebleeding in Cases of Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

Objective The use of a proton pump inhibitor (PPI) reduces rebleeding and mortality in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). Vonoprazan is a novel oral agent with strong and sustained acid-inhibitory activity. We clarified the effect of vonoprazan compared with oral PPIs in such patients. Methods We analyzed the Diagnosis Procedure Combination database. The primary outcome was rebleeding, and secondary outcomes were in-hospital mortality and in-hospital mortality after rebleeding. Propensity score matching was performed to balance the comparison groups, and logistic regression analyses were used to compare the outcomes between vonoprazan and oral PPIs. Patients Patients on vonoprazan or oral PPIs who underwent endoscopic hemostasis for UGIB between 2014 and 2019 were included. Results We enrolled 78,964 patients, of whom 27,101 and 51,863 were prescribed vonoprazan and a PPI, respectively. After propensity score matching, the rebleeding rate of vonoprazan did not significantly differ from that of oral PPIs [6.4% vs. 6.1%; odds ratio (OR), 1.05; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.98-1.13]; similarly, the in-hospital mortality rate (1.4% vs. 1.5%; OR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.79-1.05) and in-hospital mortality after rebleeding (0.3% vs. 0.2%; OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.78-1.54) also did not significantly differ between the groups. The acquired findings were robust across dose-restricted analyses and several sensitivity analyses. Conclusion Rebleeding and in-hospital mortality risks in patients on vonoprazan were similar to those in patients on oral PPIs. Considering the higher cost of vonoprazan, oral PPIs might be an optimal oral agent as an acid-suppressive therapy in such patients.

Risk factors for rebleeding in gastroduodenal ulcers

BACKGROUND

Rebleeding after hemostasis of the gastroduodenal ulcer (GDU) is one of the indicators associated with death among GDU patients. However, there are few studies on risk score that contribute to rebleeding after endoscopic hemostasis of bleeding peptic ulcers.

AIMS

The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with rebleeding, including patient factors, after endoscopic hemostasis of bleeding gastroduodenal ulcers and to stratify the risk of rebleeding.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled 587 consecutive patients who were treated for Forrest Ia to IIa bleeding gastroduodenal ulcers with endoscopic hemostasis at three institutions. Risk factors associated with rebleeding were assessed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The Rebleeding Nagoya University (Rebleeding-N) scoring system was developed based on the extracted factors. The Rebleeding-N score was internally validated using bootstrap resampling methods.

RESULTS

Sixty-four patients (11%) had rebleeding after hemostasis of gastroduodenal ulcers. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed four independent rebleeding risk factors: blood transfusion, albumin <2.5, duodenal ulcer, and diameter of the exposed vessel ≧2 mm. Patients with 4 risk factors in the Rebleeding-N score had a 54% rebleeding rate, and patients with 3 risk factors had 44% and 25% rebleeding rates. In the internal validation, the mean area under the curve of the Rebleeding-N score was 0.830 (95% CI = 0.786-0.870).

CONCLUSIONS

Rebleeding after clip hemostasis of bleeding gastroduodenal ulcers was associated with blood transfusion, albumin <2.5, diameter of the exposed vessel ≧2 mm, and duodenal ulcer. The Rebleeding-N score was able to stratify the risk of rebleeding.

Progress in research of risk prediction models for upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is a common gastrointes-tinal condition with a high incidence rate and great harm to the body. This paper reviews the rebleeding, endos-copic intervention, and death risk prediction models for upper gastrointestinal bleeding, including the study population, research methods, related risk factors, and model performance, in order to provide reference for clinicians to conduct risk assessment as soon as possible, formulate effective prevention and management plans, and improve patient survival outcomes.

Pre-Endoscopic Scores Predicting Low-Risk Patients with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Several risk scores have attempted to risk stratify patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) who are at a lower risk of requiring hospital-based interventions or negative outcomes including death. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to compare predictive abilities of pre-endoscopic scores in prognosticating the absence of adverse events in patients with UGIB.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Central, and ISI Web of knowledge from inception to February 2023. All fully published studies assessing a pre-endoscopic score in patients with UGIB were included. The primary outcome was a composite score for the need of a hospital-based intervention (endoscopic therapy, surgery, angiography, or blood transfusion). Secondary outcomes included: mortality, rebleeding, or the individual endpoints of the composite outcome. Both proportional and comparative analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Thirty-eight studies were included from 2153 citations, (n = 36,215 patients). Few patients with a low Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) cutoff (0, ≤1 and ≤2) required hospital-based interventions (0.02 (0.01, 0.05), 0.04 (0.02, 0.09) and 0.03 (0.02, 0.07), respectively). The proportions of patients with clinical Rockall (CRS = 0) and ABC (≤3) scores requiring hospital-based intervention were 0.19 (0.15, 0.24) and 0.69 (0.62, 0.75), respectively. GBS (cutoffs 0, ≤1 and ≤2), CRS (cutoffs 0, ≤1 and ≤2), AIMS65 (cutoffs 0 and ≤1) and ABC (cutoffs ≤1 and ≤3) scores all were associated with few patients (0.01-0.04) dying. The proportion of patients suffering other secondary outcomes varied between scoring systems but, in general, was lowest for the GBS. GBS (using cutoffs 0, ≤1 and ≤2) showed excellent discriminative ability in predicting the need for hospital-based interventions (OR 0.02, (0.00, 0.16), 0.00 (0.00, 0.02) and 0.01 (0.00, 0.01), respectively). A CRS cutoff of 0 was less discriminative. For the other secondary outcomes, discriminative abilities varied between scores but, in general, the GBS (using cutoffs up to 2) was clinically useful for most outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

A GBS cut-off of one or less prognosticated low-risk patients the best. Expanding the GBS cut-off to 2 maintains prognostic accuracy while allowing more patients to be managed safely as outpatients. The evidence is limited by the number, homogeneity, quality, and generalizability of available data and subjectivity of deciding on clinical impact. Additional, comparative and, ideally, interventional studies are needed.

Real-world efficacy of antibiotic prophylaxis for upper gastrointestinal bleeding in cirrhotic patients in Japan

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Antibiotic prophylaxis is recommended for cirrhotic patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). However, the frequency of bacterial infection in such patients has remarkably decreased over the decades, which has reduced the necessity for prophylaxis. Therefore, here we investigated the real-world adherence and effectiveness of antibiotic prophylaxis in cirrhotic patients with UGIB in Japan.

METHODS

This population-based study was conducted with a Japanese real-world database of the Health, Clinic, and Education Information Evaluation Institute. We enrolled cirrhotic patients who were hospitalized for UGIB between April 2010 and March 2020. After those who died within 24 h and who had aspiration pneumonia at admission were excluded, 1232 patients were analyzed. Rates of 6-week mortality, in-hospital bacterial infection, 30-day readmission, and length of hospital stay were evaluated.

RESULTS

Prophylactic antibiotics were prescribed in 142 (11.5%) patients. Multivariate analysis revealed that antibiotic prophylaxis was not significantly associated with either 6-week mortality or bacterial infection. After propensity score matching, the rates of 6-week mortality (7.2% vs. 8.4%, P = 0.810), bacterial infection (9.6% vs. 4.2%, P = 0.082), and 30-day unexpected readmission (7.2% vs. 7.8%, P = 1.000) were similar in patients with and without prophylaxis, whereas the median length of hospital stay was significantly longer in patients with prophylaxis (17 days vs. 13 days, P = 0.013).

CONCLUSIONS

Under current real-world circumstances in Japan, prophylactic antibiotics were prescribed in only 11.5% of cirrhotic patients with UGIB and were not associated with better clinical outcomes.

CHAMPS score in predicting mortality of patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥2, in-hospital onset, albumin <2.5 g/dL, altered mental status, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ≥2, steroid use score in predicting mortality in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding and compare it with the Glasgow-Blatchford score; the albumin, international normalized ratio; alteration in mental status, systolic blood pressure, and age 65 score; the age, blood tests, and comorbidities score; and Complete Rockall score.

METHODS

The data of patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding who visited the emergency department during the study period were obtained from the hospital automation system by using the classification of disease codes and analyzed in this retrospective study. Adult patients with endoscopically confirmed nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding were included in the study. Patients with bleeding from the tumor, bleeding after endoscopic resection, or missing data were excluded. The prediction accuracy of the Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥ 2, in-hospital onset, albumin < 2.5 g/dL, altered mental status, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ≥ 2, steroid use score was calculated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and compared with that of Glasgow-Blatchford score, the albumin, international normalized ratio; alteration in mental status, systolic blood pressure, and age 65 score, the age, blood tests, and comorbidities score, and Complete Rockall score.

RESULTS

A total of 805 patients were included in the study, and the in-hospital mortality rate was 6.6%. The performance of the Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥ 2, in-hospital onset, albumin < 2.5 g/dL, altered mental status, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ≥ 2, steroid use score (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.812, 95%CI 0.783-0.839) was better than Glasgow-Blatchford score (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.683, 95%CI 0.650-0.713, p=0.008), and similar to the the age, blood tests, and comorbidities score (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.829, 95%CI 0.801-0.854, p=0.563), the albumin, international normalized ratio; alteration in mental status, systolic blood pressure, and age 65 score (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.794, 95%CI 0.764-0.821, p=0.672), and Complete Rockall score (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.761, 95%CI 0.730-0.790, p=0.106).

CONCLUSION

The performance of the Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥ 2, in-hospital onset, albumin < 2.5 g/dL, altered mental status, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ≥ 2, steroid use score in predicting in-hospital mortality for our study population is better than Glasgow-Blatchford score and similar to the the age, blood tests, and comorbidities score, the albumin, international normalized ratio; alteration in mental status, systolic blood pressure, and age 65 score, and Complete Rockall score.

Clinical Outcomes of Patients with Benign Peptic Ulcer Bleeding After an Emergency Endoscopy Based on Patient Location

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

In the efforts toward reducing bleeding-related mortality, it is crucial to determine the risk factors for rebleeding after endoscopic hemostasis in benign peptic ulcer (BPU).

METHODS

Between 2013 and 2017, the medical records of 864 BPU patients were selected from 5076 who had undergone emergency endoscopy for suspected upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Patients who visited the emergency room or were hospitalized for other illnesses were selected. The primary end point was rebleeding within 30 days after initial endoscopy. The risk factors of rebleeding and subgroup analyses according to patient location were evaluated.

RESULTS

Among 864 BPU bleeding patients, rebleeding after completion of BPU bleeding occurred in 140 (16.2%). Initial indicators of hypotension (OR 1.878, p = 0.005) and Forrest classes Ia (OR 25.53, p < 0.001), Ib (OR 27.91, p = 0.005), IIa (OR 21.41, p < 0.001), and IIb (OR 23.74, p < 0.001) were independent risk factors of rebleeding compared to Forrest class III, and being inpatients (OR 1.75, p = 0.01). Compared to the outpatients, the inpatients showed significantly higher rebleeding rates (25.6% vs 13.8%, p < 0.001), predictive bleeding scores, red blood transfusion counts, proportion of Forrest classes Ia, Ib, and IIb (p < 0.001), and overall mortality rates (68.8% vs 34.0%, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Patient location was a novel predictive factor of BPU rebleeding. Particularly, being an inpatient correlated with increased rebleeding. Furthermore, Forrest classes Ia, Ib, IIa, and IIb were predictive of rebleeding not only the included BPUs, but also in the inpatient or outpatient groups.

Nature and Clinical Outcomes of Acute Hemorrhagic Rectal Ulcer

Acute hemorrhagic rectal ulcer (AHRU) is a relatively rare disease that can lead to massive hematochezia. Although AHRU is a potentially life-threatening disease, its characteristics and clinical course are not fully understood. In this study, the clinical features were compared between AHRU and lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) from other causes (non-AHRU). Then, risk factors for all-cause in-hospital mortality in patients with AHRU were identified. A total of 387 consecutive adult patients with LGIB who were managed at two tertiary academic hospitals in Akita prefecture in Japan were retrospectively enrolled. Subjects were divided into AHRU and non-AHRU groups according to the source of bleeding. Regression analyses were used to investigate significant associations, and the results were expressed as odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). AHRU was found as the bleeding source in 72 (18.6%) of the patients. In comparison to non-AHRU, having AHRU was significantly associated with in-hospital onset, age > 65 years, and systolic blood pressure < 90 mmHg. The AHRU group had a significantly higher in-hospital mortality rate in comparison to the non-AHRU group (18.0% vs. 8.3, p = 0.02), and hypoalbuminemia (<2.5 g/dL) was significantly associated with in-hospital mortality in the AHRU group (OR, 4.04; 95%CI, 1.11−14.9; p = 0.03). AHRU accounts for a substantial portion (18.6%) of LGIB in our area, where the aging rate is the highest in Japan. Since AHRU is a potentially life-threatening disease that requires urgent identification and management, further studies to identify robust risk factors associated with serious clinical outcomes are required.

Modified N score is helpful for identifying patients who need endoscopic intervention among those with black stools without hematemesis

OBJECTIVES

Although black stools are one of the signs of upper gastrointestinal bleeding, not all patients without hematemesis need endoscopic intervention. There is no apparent indicator to select who needs treatment thus far. The aim of this study was to establish a novel score that predicts the need for endoscopic intervention in patients with black stools without hematemesis.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled 721 consecutive patients with black stools without hematemesis who underwent emergency endoscopy from two facilities. In the development stage (from January 2016 to December 2018), risk factors that predict the need for endoscopic intervention were determined from the data of 422 patients by multivariate logistic regression analysis, and a novel scoring system, named the modified Nagoya University score (modified N score), was developed. In the validation stage (from January 2019 to September 2020), we evaluated the diagnostic value of the modified N score for 299 patients.

RESULTS

Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed four predictive factors for endoscopic intervention: syncope, the blood urea nitrogen (BUN) level, and the BUN/creatinine ratio as positive indicators and anticoagulant drug use as a negative indicator. In the validation stage, the area under the curve of the modified N score was 0.731, and the modified N score showed a sensitivity of 82.0% and a specificity of 58.8%.

CONCLUSIONS

Our modified N score, which consists of only four factors, can identify patients who need endoscopic intervention among those with black stools without hematemesis.

Nature and treatment outcomes of bleeding post-bulbar duodenal ulcers

BACKGROUND

Although post-bulbar duodenal ulcers (PBDUs) could become a source of upper gastrointestinal bleeding, the whole picture of the disease is unknown. We compared the characteristic features and treatment outcomes after endoscopic hemostasis between PBDUs and bulbar duodenal ulcers (BDUs).

METHODS

Data on duodenal ulcers with evidence of endoscopically-active bleeding were extracted from the data that were retrospectively collected from 12 institutes in Japan between 2011 and 2018. Rebleeding and in-hospital mortality were compared between patients with PBDUs and those with BDUs by logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

Among 468 consecutive patients with bleeding duodenal ulcers, 96 (20.5%) had endoscopically-confirmed PBDUs. PBDUs were more frequently observed in patients with a poor general condition in comparison to BDUs. The rates of rebleeding and in-hospital mortality in patients with PBDUs were approximately three times higher than those in patients with BDUs (PBDU vs. BDU: 29.2% vs. 10.2% [P < 0.0001] and 14.6% vs. 5.1% [P = 0.0029], respectively). Although the high in-hospital mortality in PBDUs could be explained, to a lesser extent, by the likelihood of rebleeding, and, to a greater extent, by the patients' poor general condition, the presence of a PBDU itself was largely responsible for the high rebleeding rates in PBDUs.

CONCLUSION

This is the first study focusing on the nature and treatment outcomes of bleeding PBDUs. PBDUs were associated with much higher rebleeding and mortality rates in comparison to BDUs, and the likelihood of rebleeding may be derived from their unique anatomic location.

Usefulness of the CHAMPS score for risk stratification in lower gastrointestinal bleeding

We have recently developed a simple prediction score, the CHAMPS score, to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. In this study, the primary outcome of this study was the usefulness of the CHAMPS score for predicting in-hospital mortality with lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB). Consecutive adult patients who were hospitalized with LGIB at two tertiary academic medical centers from 2015 to 2020 were retrospectively enrolled. The performance for predicting outcomes with CHAMPS score was assessed by a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, and compared with four existing scores. In 387 patients enrolled in this study, 39 (10.1%) of whom died during the hospitalization. The CHAMPS score showed good performance in predicting in-hospital mortality in LGIB patients with an AUC (95% confidence interval) of 0.80 (0.73–0.87), which was significantly higher in comparison to the existing scores. The risk of in-hospital mortality as predicted by the CHAMPS score was shown: low risk (score ≤ 1), 1.8%; intermediate risk (score 2 or 3), 15.8%; and high risk (score ≥ 4), 37.1%. The CHAMPS score is useful for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with LGIB.

A New Preoperative Scoring System for Predicting Aggressiveness of Non-Functioning Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Neoplasms

The management of non-functioning pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (NF-PanNENs) is still controversial. This study aimed to develop a new scoring system for treatment decisions at initial diagnosis based on the identification of the predictive factors for aggressive NF-PanNENs. Seventy-seven patients who had been pathologically diagnosed with NF-PanNENs were enrolled. We retrospectively reviewed 13 variables that could be assessed preoperatively. Univariate and multivariate stepwise logistic regression analyses were performed to identify factors for the aggressiveness of NF-PanNENs, and a scoring system was developed by assigning weighted points proportional to their β regression coefficient. Tumor size > 20 mm on contrast-enhanced computed tomography, tumor non-vascularity, and Ki-67 labeling index ≥5% on endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration specimens were identified as independent factors for predicting the aggressiveness of NF-PanNENs. The new scoring system, developed using the identified factors, had an excellent discrimination ability, with area under the curve of 0.92 (95% CI, 0.85–0.99), and good calibration (p = 0.72, Hosmer-Lemeshow test). Ten-year overall survival rates in low-risk (0 point), intermediate-risk (1 to 2 points), and high-risk (3 to 4 points) groups were 100%, 90.9%, and 24.3%, respectively. This new scoring system would be useful for treatment decisions and prognostic prediction at initial diagnosis.