Ethnicity-specific association of BMI levels at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes with cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality risk

Temporal trends in co-morbidities and cardiometabolic risk factors at the time of type 2 diabetes diagnosis in the UK

AIM

To evaluate temporal patterns in co-morbidities, cardiometabolic risk factors and a high atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk population at type 2 diabetes (T2D) diagnosis by age groups and sex.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

From the UK primary care database, 248,619 people with a new diagnosis of T2D during 2005-2016 were identified. Among people without ASCVD, high ASCVD risk was defined as two or more of current smoker, grade 2+ obesity, hypertension, dyslipidaemia or microvascular disease. Cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM) was defined as two or more of cardiovascular disease, microvascular disease, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, grade 2+ obesity or cancer. Temporal patterns in the distribution of cardiometabolic risk factors were evaluated.

RESULTS

While the prevalence of ASCVD was stable over time (approximately 18%), 50% were identified to have a high ASCVD risk (26% and 38% in the 18-39 and 40-49 years age groups, respectively), with an increasing trend across all age groups. Overall, 51% had CMM at diagnosis, increasing during 2005-2016 for the 18-39 years age group by 14%-17%, for the 40-49 years age group by 27%-33%, for the 50-59 years age group by 41%-50%, for the 60-69 years age group by 56%-65%, and for the 70-79 years age group by 65%-80%. People with young-onset T2D had significantly higher HbA1c, body mass index and lipids at diagnosis (all p < .01). The proportions with an HbA1c of 7.5% or higher in the 18-39 and 40-49 years age groups were 58% and 54%, respectively, significantly and consistently higher over the last decade compared with those aged 50 years or older, with males having higher proportions of 15-26 and 10-18 percentage points, respectively, compared with females.

CONCLUSIONS

CMM and high ASCVD risk have been increasing consistently across all age groups and in both sex, in particular CMM in those aged younger than 50 years. Our findings indicate that the European Society of Cardiology-European Association for the Study of Diabetes recommendations need to change to consider people with young-onset T2D as a high-risk group, as recommended in the Primary Care Diabetes Europe position statement.

BMI and BMI change following incident type 2 diabetes and risk of microvascular and macrovascular complications: the EPIC-Potsdam study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Studies suggest decreased mortality risk among people who are overweight or obese compared with individuals with normal weight in type 2 diabetes (obesity paradox). However, the relationship between body weight or weight change and microvascular vs macrovascular complications of type 2 diabetes remains unresolved. We investigated the association between BMI and BMI change with long-term risk of microvascular and macrovascular complications in type 2 diabetes in a prospective cohort study.

METHODS

We studied participants with incident type 2 diabetes from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam cohort, who were free of cancer, cardiovascular disease and microvascular disease at diagnosis (n = 1083). Pre-diagnosis BMI and relative annual change between pre- and post-diagnosis BMI were evaluated in multivariable-adjusted Cox models.

RESULTS

There were 85 macrovascular (myocardial infarction and stroke) and 347 microvascular events (kidney disease, neuropathy and retinopathy) over a median follow-up of 10.8 years. Median pre-diagnosis BMI was 29.9 kg/m² (IQR 27.4-33.2), and the median relative annual BMI change was -0.4% (IQR -2.1 to 0.9). Higher pre-diagnosis BMI was positively associated with total microvascular complications (multivariable-adjusted HR per 5 kg/m² [95% CI]: 1.21 [1.07, 1.36], kidney disease 1.39 [1.21, 1.60] and neuropathy 1.12 [0.96, 1.31]) but not with macrovascular complications (HR 1.05 [95% CI 0.81, 1.36]). Analyses according to BMI categories corroborated these findings. Effect modification was not evident by sex, smoking status or age groups. In analyses according to BMI change categories, BMI loss of more than 1% indicated a decreased risk of total microvascular complications (HR 0.62 [95% CI 0.47, 0.80]), kidney disease (HR 0.57 [95% CI 0.40, 0.81]) and neuropathy (HR 0.73 [95% CI 0.52, 1.03]), compared with participants with a stable BMI; no clear association was observed for macrovascular complications (HR 1.04 [95% CI 0.62, 1.74]). The associations between BMI gain compared with stable BMI and diabetes-related vascular complications were less apparent. Associations were consistent across strata of sex, age, pre-diagnosis BMI or medication but appeared to be stronger among never-smokers compared with current or former smokers.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Among people with incident type 2 diabetes, pre-diagnosis BMI was positively associated with microvascular complications, while a reduced risk was observed with weight loss when compared with stable weight. The relationships with macrovascular disease were less clear.

Adolescent BMI and early-onset type 2 diabetes among Ethiopian immigrants and their descendants: a nationwide study

Background

We assessed in a nationwide cohort the association between adolescent BMI and early-onset (< 40 years) type 2 diabetes among Israelis of Ethiopian origin.

Methods

Normoglycemic adolescents (range 16–20 years old), including 93,806 native Israelis (≥ 3rd generation in Israel) and 27,684 Israelis of Ethiopian origin, were medically assessed for military service between 1996 and 2011. Weight and height were measured. Data were linked to the Israeli National Diabetes Registry. Incident type 2 diabetes by December 31, 2016 was the outcome. Cox regression models stratified by sex and BMI categories were applied.

Results

226 (0.29%) men and 79 (0.18%) women developed diabetes during 992,980 and 530,814 person-years follow-up, respectively, at a mean age of 30.4 and 27.4 years, respectively. Among native Israeli men with normal and high (overweight and obese) BMI, diabetes incidence was 9.5 and 62.0 (per 10⁵ person-years), respectively. The respective incidences were 46.9 and 112.3 among men of Ethiopian origin. After adjustment for sociodemographic confounders, the hazard ratios for type 2 diabetes among Ethiopian men with normal and high BMI were 3.4 (2.3–5.1) and 15.8 (8.3–30.3) respectively, compared to third-generation Israelis with normal BMI. When this analysis was limited to Israeli-born Ethiopian men, the hazard ratios were 4.4 (1.7–11.4) and 29.1 (12.9–70.6), respectively. Results persisted when immigrants of other white Caucasian origin were the reference; and among women with normal, but not high, BMI.

Conclusions

Ethiopian origin is a risk factor for early-onset type 2 diabetes among young men at any BMI, and may require selective interventions.

Pathways leading to prevention of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease: An interaction model on 15 years population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

A comprehensive study on the interaction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors is critical to prevent cardiovascular events. The main focus of this study is thus to understand direct and indirect relationships between different CVD risk factors.

METHODS

A longitudinal data on adults aged ≥35 years, who were free of CVD at baseline, were used in this study. The endpoints were CVD events, whereas their measurements were demographic, lifestyle components, socio-economics, anthropometric measures, laboratory findings, quality of life status, and psychological factors. A Bayesian structural equation modelling was used to determine the relationships among 21 relevant factors associated with total CVD, stroke, acute coronary syndrome (ACS), and fatal CVDs.

RESULTS

In this study, a total of 3161 individuals with complete information were involved in the study. A total of 407 CVD events, with an average age of 54.77(10.66) years, occurred during follow-up. The causal associations between six latent variables were identified in the causal network for fatal and non-fatal CVDs. Lipid profile, with the coefficient of 0.26 (0.01), influenced the occurrence of CVD events as the most critical factor, while it was indirectly mediated through risky behaviours and comorbidities. Lipid profile at baseline was influenced by a wide range of other protective factors, such as quality of life and healthy lifestyle components.

CONCLUSIONS

Analysing a causal network of risk factors revealed the flow of information in direct and indirect paths. It also determined predictors and demonstrated the utility of integrating multi-factor data in a complex framework to identify novel preventable pathways to reduce the risk of CVDs.

Temporal Trend in Young-Onset Type 2 Diabetes-Macrovascular and Mortality Risk: Study of U.K. Primary Care Electronic Medical Records

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate temporal prevalence trend, cardiometabolic risk factors, and the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and all-cause mortality (ACM) in incident young- and usual-onset type 2 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

From the U.K. primary care database, 370,854 people with a new diagnosis of type 2 diabetes from 2000 to 2017 were identified. Analyses were conducted by age-group (18-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79 years) and high-/low-risk status without history of ASCVD at diagnosis, with subjects with two or more of current smoking, high systolic blood pressure, high LDL cholesterol (LDL-C), or chronic kidney disease classified as high risk.

RESULTS

The proportion of people aged <50 years at diagnosis increased during 2000-2010 and then stabilized. The incidence rates of ASCVD and ACM declined in people aged ≥50 years but did not decrease in people <50 years. Compared with people aged ≥50 years, those aged 18-39 years at diagnosis had a higher proportion of obesity (71% obese) and higher HbA_1c (8.6%), and 71% had high LDL-C, while only 18% were on cardioprotective therapy. Although 2% in this age-group had ASCVD at diagnosis, 23% were identified as high risk. In the 18-39-year age-group, the adjusted average years to ASCVD/ACM in high-risk individuals (9.1 years [95% CI 8.2-10.0]/9.3 years [8.1-10.4]) were similar to the years in those with low risk (10.0 years [9.5-10.5]/10.5 years [9.7-11.2]). However, individuals aged ≥50 years with high risk were likely to experience an ASCVD event 1.5-2 years earlier and death 1.1-1.5 years earlier compared with low-risk groups (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Unlike usual-onset, young-onset type 2 diabetes has similar cardiovascular and mortality risk irrespective of cardiometabolic risk factor status at diagnosis. The guidelines on the management of young-onset type 2 diabetes for intensive risk factor management and cardioprotective therapies need to be urgently reevaluated through prospective studies.

Weight change and mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with new-onset diabetes mellitus: a nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

Because weight control is a cornerstone of diabetes management, it is important to understand the relationship of weight change to risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). We aimed to investigate whether changes in weight early after diagnosis influence the incidence of CVD and all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 DM.

METHODS

Using nationally representative data from the Korean National Health Insurance System, 173,246 subjects with new-onset DM who underwent health examinations during 2007-2012 were included. Weight was measured at the time of diabetes diagnosis and 2 years later. Weight change over 2 years was divided into five categories of 5% weight change, from weight loss ≥ - 10% to weight gain ≥ 10%.

RESULTS

There were 3113 deaths (1.8%), 2060 cases of stroke (1.2%), and 1767 myocardial infarctions (MIs) (1.0%) during a median follow-up of 5.5 years. Subjects with weight gain ≥ 10% had a significantly higher risk of stroke (hazard ratio [HR] 1.51, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.23-1.84), compared with the group with stable weight. There was no significant association between weight change after diagnosis of DM and incident MI. All-cause mortality showed a U-shaped curve according to weight change. The group with weight loss ≥ - 10% had the highest HR for all-cause mortality (HR 1.86; 95% CI 1.61-2.14) and the HR for weight gain ≥ 10% was 1.61 (95% CI 1.37-1.89).

CONCLUSIONS

Weight changes of more than 10% after diabetes diagnosis were associated with higher mortality and over 10% weight gain was associated with increased risk of stroke.