Development and validation of the Calculation of post-Operative Risk in Emergency Surgery (CORES) model

Use of POSSUM (Physiologic and Operative Severity Score for the Study of Mortality and Morbidity) and Portsmouth-POSSUM for Surgical Assessment in Patients Undergoing Emergency Abdominal Surgeries

INTRODUCTION

The POSSUM (Physiologic and Operative Severity Score for the Study of Mortality and Morbidity) and Portsmouth-POSSUM (P-POSSUM) models have been popularly recommended as appropriate for predicting postoperative mortality and morbidity in surgical practice. This study aims to evaluate the efficacy and accuracy of both scoring systems for surgical risk assessment in predicting postoperative mortality and morbidity in patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgeries.

METHODOLOGY

The study was conducted as a part of a post-doctoral fellowship program. A total of 150 patients, undergoing emergency abdominal surgery in a tertiary care hospital in Bhubaneswar, were evaluated using POSSUM and P-POSSUM. Physiological scoring was done prior to surgery and operative scoring was performed intra-operatively. Patients were followed up for 30 days after the operative period. The observed mortality rate was then compared with POSSUM and P-POSSUM predicted mortality rates.

RESULTS

POSSUM predicted a morbidity rate of 116, whereas the actual morbidity rate was 92 (p < 0.05). P-POSSUM predicted a morbidity rate of 109, whereas the actual morbidity rate was 92 (p < 0.05). POSSUM predicted a mortality rate of 23, whereas the actual mortality rate was 21 (p < 0.05). P-POSSUM predicted a mortality rate of 25, whereas the actual mortality rate was 21 (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

With a reasonably good prediction of morbidity and mortality rate, POSSUM and P-POSSUM scores are both effective scoring systems in clinical practice for use in abdominal surgery.

Are admission laboratory values in isolation meaningful for predicting surgical outcome in patients with perforated peptic ulcers?

Background

The study aimed to calculate the predictive value of admission laboratory values in patients with perforated peptic ulcers.

Methods

A retrospective, cohort analytical, observational study was performed, including patients with surgically confirmed perforated peptic ulcers over a 5-year period. Demographic data and admission laboratory values were collected from hospital electronic databases. Outcomes measured were in-hospital mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and length of stay. The significance of categorical variables was calculated by chi-square and Fisher's exact test. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine univariately statistically significant variables.

Results

In total, 188 patients met the inclusion criteria. The median age was 46 (range 15-87) years with a male predominance of 71.3 % (n = 134). The median length of hospital stay was 7 (range 1-94) days and 31.4 % (n = 59) of patients were admitted to the ICU. Post-operative in-hospital mortality was 25.0 % (n = 47). Predicting the categorical outcome of in-hospital mortality, abnormal haemoglobin, platelet count, urea, creatinine and potassium levels were all found to be statistically significant in the univariate analysis. Age (odds ratio [OR] 1.03), haemoglobin (OR 4.36) and creatinine (OR 7.76) levels were significant in the multivariate analysis.

Conclusions

Mortality rate among patients with perforated peptic ulcer disease is still substantial. Admission laboratory values showed statistical significance as outcome indicators and were valuable to assist in predicting the prognosis. An abnormally high serum creatinine level was the strongest single predictor of both mortality and ICU admission.

Key message

Initial laboratory findings of patients admitted for perforated peptic ulcer showed that an abnormally high serum creatinine level was the strongest single predictor of both mortality and ICU admission.

Illness wellness scale: novel grading system for performance status of patients under surgical care

BACKGROUND

Grading the illness using clinical parameters is essential for the daily progress of inpatients. Existing systems do not incorporate these parameters holistically. The study was designed to internally validate the illness wellness scale, based upon clinical assessment of the patients requiring surgical care, for their risk stratification and uniformity of communication between health care providers.

METHODS

Prospective observational study conducted at a tertiary care hospital. An expert panel devised the scale, and it was modified after feedback from 100 health care providers. A total of 210 patients (150 for internal validation and 60 for inter-observer variability) who required care under the department of surgical disciplines were enrolled. This included patients presenting to surgery OPD, admitted to COVID/non-COVID surgical wards and ICUs, aged ≥16 years.

RESULTS

The response rate of the final illness wellness scale was 95% with 86% positive feedback and a mean of 1.7 on the Likert scale for ease of use (one being very easy and five being difficult). It showed excellent consistency and minimal inter-observer variability with the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) above 0.9. In the internal validation cohort (n = 150), univariate and multivariable analysis of factors affecting mortality revealed that categorical risk stratification, age ≥ 60 years, presence or absence of co-morbidities especially hypertension and chronic kidney disease significantly affect mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The Illness wellness scale is an effective tool for uniformly communicating between health care professionals and is also a strong predictor of risk stratification and mortality in patients requiring surgical care.

Scores for preoperative risk evaluation of postoperative mortality

Preoperative risk evaluation scores are used prior to surgery to predict perioperative risks. They are also a useful tool to help clinicians communicate the risk-benefit balance of the procedure to patients. This review identifies and assesses the existing preoperative risk evaluation scores (also called prediction scores) of postoperative mortality in all types of surgery (emergency or scheduled) in an adult population. We systematically identified studies using the MEDLINE, Ovid EMBASE and Cochrane databases and published studies reporting the development and validation of preoperative predictive scores of postoperative mortality. We assessed usability, the level of evidence of the studies performed for external validation, and the predictive accuracy of the scores identified. We found 26 scores described within 60 different reports. The most suitable scores with the highest validity identified for anaesthesia practice were the Preoperative Score to Predict Postoperative Mortality (POSPOM), the Universal ACS NSQIP surgical risk calculator (ACS-NSQUIP), the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) and the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA-PS) classification system. While other scores identified in this review could also be endorsed, their level of validity and generalizability to the general surgical population should be carefully considered.

Sarcopenia discriminates poor prognosis in elderly patients following emergency surgery for perforation panperitonitis

AIM

Sarcopenia has been reported as a prognostic predictor in various conditions; however, it has not been examined in patients with perforation panperitonitis.

METHODS

A total of 103 consecutive patients with perforation panperitonitis who underwent emergency surgery from 2008 to 2016 were retrospectively evaluated. Skeletal muscle index (SMI) was measured as the cross-sectional area (cm2) of skeletal muscle in the L3 region on computed tomography images normalized for height (cm2/m2). Sarcopenia was defined as an SMI of ≤43.75 and ≤41.10 cm2/m2 in men and women, respectively. The impact of sarcopenia on postoperative outcomes was investigated.

RESULTS

Sarcopenia was present in 50 (48.5%) patients. Severe complications (Clavien-Dindo grade ≥IIIb) and in-hospital mortality were more frequently observed in patients with than without sarcopenia (28.0% vs 9.4%, P = .015) (20.0% vs 5.7%, P = .029) respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that age, sarcopenia, and renal dysfunction were independent risk factors for severe complications and in-hospital mortality. The optimal cut-off levels of age and SMI for predicting these were ≥79 years and SMI <38 cm2/m2, respectively. Among the patients aged ≥79 years, those with SMI <38 cm2/m2 had a severe complication rate of 71% and an in-hospital mortality rate of 57%, whereas the rate of those with SMI ≥38 cm2/m2 was 22% (P = .011) and 11% (P = .008), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Sarcopenia is a predictive factor of severe complications and in-hospital mortality following emergency surgery for perforation panperitonitis, especially in elderly patients. Estimation of sarcopenia may identify patients eligible or not eligible for emergency surgery among elderly patients.

Frailty and emergency surgery in the elderly: protocol of a prospective, multicenter study in Italy for evaluating perioperative outcome (The FRAILESEL Study)

Improvements in living conditions and progress in medical management have resulted in better quality of life and longer life expectancy. Therefore, the number of older people undergoing surgery is increasing. Frailty is often described as a syndrome in aged patients where there is augmented vulnerability due to progressive loss of functional reserves. Studies suggest that frailty predisposes elderly to worsening outcome after surgery. Since emergency surgery is associated with higher mortality rates, it is paramount to have an accurate stratification of surgical risk in such patients. The aim of our study is to characterize the clinicopathological findings, management, and short-term outcome of elderly patients undergoing emergency surgery. The secondary objectives are to evaluate the presence and influence of frailty and analyze the prognostic role of existing risk-scores. The final FRAILESEL protocol was approved by the Ethical Committee of "Sapienza" University of Rome, Italy. The FRAILESEL study is a nationwide, Italian, multicenter, observational study conducted through a resident-led model. Patients over 65 years of age who require emergency surgical procedures will be included in this study. The primary outcome measures are 30-day postoperative mortality and morbidity rates. The Clavien-Dindo classification system is used to categorize complications. The secondary outcome measures include length of hospital stay, length of stay in intensive care unit, and predictive value for morbidity and mortality of several frailty and surgical risk-scores. The results of the FRAILESEL study will be disseminated through national and international conference presentations and peer-reviewed journals. The study is also registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02825082).

The development and validation of a novel model for predicting surgical complications in colorectal cancer of elderly patients: Results from 1008 cases

OBJECTIVE

To establish predicting models of surgical complications in elderly colorectal cancer patients.

BACKGROUND

Surgical complications are usually critical and lethal in the elderly patients. However, none of the current models are specifically designed to predict surgical complications in elderly colorectal cancer patients.

METHODS

Details of 1008 cases of elderly colorectal cancer patients (age ≥ 65) were collected retrospectively from January 1998 to December 2013. Seventy-six clinicopathological variables which might affect postoperative complications in elderly patients were recorded. Multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis was used to develop the risk model equations. The performance of the developed model was evaluated by measures of calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test) and discrimination (the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve, AUC).

RESULTS

The AUC of our established Surgical Complication Score for Elderly Colorectal Cancer patients (SCSECC) model was 0.743 (sensitivity, 82.1%; specificity, 78.3%). There was no significant discrepancy between observed and predicted incidence rates of surgical complications (AUC, 0.820; P = .812). The Surgical Site Infection Score for Elderly Colorectal Cancer patients (SSISECC) model showed significantly better prediction power compared to the National Nosocomial Infections Surveillance index (NNIS) (AUC, 0.732; P ˂ 0.001) and Efficacy of Nosocomial Infection Control index (SENIC) (AUC; 0.686; P˂0.001) models.

CONCLUSIONS

The SCSECC and SSISECC models show good prediction power for postoperative surgical complication morbidity and surgical site infection in elderly colorectal cancer patients.

Inter-rater reliability of the American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status rating for emergency gastrointestinal surgery

Aim

The American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA-PS) classification system is used worldwide and has also been incorporated into various prediction rules. However, concerns have been raised regarding inter-rater agreement in various surgical fields. Although emergency gastrointestinal surgery is relatively common and associated with high postoperative mortality, a reliability study has not yet been undertaken in this field. The aim of the present study was to investigate the inter-rater reliability of ASA-PS for emergency gastrointestinal surgery.

Methods

Three sets of scenarios were generated for each ASA-PS class (2E, 3E, and 4E) in emergency gastrointestinal surgery, resulting in nine scenarios. These scenarios described the preoperative profiles of patients in one hospital. Two or three anesthesiologists from 18 other hospitals provided scores for ASA-PS for each scenario.

Results

Fifty anesthesiologists scored the ASA-PS class. Between 66% and 90% of these anesthesiologists assigned the same ratings as the reference ratings for the individual scenarios. Inter-rater reliability was assessed using Fleiss' kappa (95% confidence interval) of 0.55 (0.54-0.56, P < 0.001) and an intraclass correlation coefficient (95% confidence interval) of 0.79 (0.63-0.93, P < 0.001).

Conclusion

The results of the present study revealed the consistency of ASA-PS ratings between anesthesiologists for emergency gastrointestinal surgery. The ASA-PS may serve as a reliable variable in the prediction rules for this field.

Assessing the risk: Scoring systems for outcome prediction in emergency laparotomies

Emergency laparotomy is the commonest emergency surgical procedure in most hospitals and includes over 400 diverse surgical procedures. Despite the evolution of medicine and surgical practices, the mortality in patients needing emergency laparotomy remains abnormally high. Although surgical risk assessment first started with the ASA Physical Status score in 1941, efforts to find an ideal scoring system that accurately estimates the risk of mortality, continues till today. While many scoring systems have been developed, no single scoring system has been validated across multiple centers and geographical locations. While some scoring systems can predict the risk merely based upon preoperative findings and parameters, some rely on intra-operative assessment and histopathology reports to accurately stratify the risk of mortality. Although most scoring systems can potentially be used to compare risk-adjusted mortality across hospitals and amongst surgeons, only those which are based on preoperative findings can be used for risk prognostication and identify high-risk patients before surgery for an aggressive treatment. The recognition of the fact, that in the absence of outcome data in these patients, it would be impossible to evaluate the impact of quality improvement initiatives on risk-adjusted mortality, hospital groups and surgical societies have got together and started to pool data and analyze it. Appropriate scoring systems for emergency laparotomies would help in risk prognostication, risk-adjusted audit and assess the impact of quality improvement initiative in patient care across hospitals. Large multi-centric studies across varied geographic locations and surgical practices need to assess and validate the ideal and most apt scoring system for emergency laparotomies. While APACHE-II and P-POSSUM continue to be the most commonly used scoring system in emergency laparotomies,studies need to compare them in their ability to predict mortality and explore if either has a higher sensitivity and specificity than the other.

Evaluation of modified estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress in patients undergoing surgery for choledochocystolithiasis

BACKGROUND

The incidence of complicated choledochocystolithiasis is increasing with the aging of society in Japan. We evaluated the utility of our prediction rule modified estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (mE-PASS) in predicting postoperative adverse events in patients with choledochocystolithiasis.

METHODS

A total of 4,329 patients who underwent elective surgery for choledochocystolithiasis in 44 referral hospitals between April 1987 and April 2007 were analyzed for mE-PASS along with postoperative events. The discrimination power of mE-PASS was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The correlation between ordinal and interval variables was quantified by the Spearman rank correlation (ρ). The ratio of observed-to-estimated mortality rates (OE ratio) was used as a metric of surgical quality.

RESULTS

Postoperative in-hospital mortality rates were 0 % (0/3,442) for laparoscopic cholecystectomy, 0.19 % (1/521) for open cholecystectomy, 1.6 % (1/63) for laparoscopic choledochotomy, 1.1 % (3/264) for open choledochotomy, and 5.1 % (2/39) for plasty or resection of the common bile duct. mE-PASS demonstrated a high discrimination power to predict in-hospital mortality; AUC, 95 % confidence interval (CI) of 0.96, 0.94-0.99. The predicted mortality rates significantly correlated with the severity of postoperative complications (ρ = 0.278, p < 0.0001) and length of hospital stay (ρ = 0.479, p < 0.0001). The OE ratios (95 % CI) improved slightly over time; 1.5 (0.25-9.0) between 1987 and 2000, and 0.40 (0.078-2.1) between 2001 and 2007.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study suggests that mE-PASS can predict postoperative risks in patients who have undergone choledochocystolithiasis. mE-PASS may be useful in surgical decision making and evaluating the quality of care.