Anticipating Stream Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change: Toward Predictions that Incorporate Effects Via Land–Water Linkages

Projecting the effects of agricultural conservation practices on stream fish communities in a changing climate

How anticipated climate change might affect long-term outcomes of present-day agricultural conservation practices remains a key uncertainty that could benefit water quality and biodiversity conservation planning. To explore this issue, we forecasted how the stream fish communities in the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB) would respond to increasing amounts of agricultural conservation practice (ACP) implementation under two IPCC future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5: moderate reductions; RCP8.5: business-as-usual conditions) during 2020-2065. We used output from 19 General Circulation Models to drive linked agricultural land use (APEX), watershed hydrology (SWAT), and stream fish distribution (boosted regression tree) models, subsequently analyzing how projected changes in habitat would influence fish community composition and functional trait diversity. Our models predicted both positive and negative effects of climate change and ACP implementation on WLEB stream fishes. For most species, climate and ACPs influenced species in the same direction, with climate effects outweighing those of ACP implementation. Functional trait analysis helped clarify the varied responses among species, indicating that more extreme climate change would reduce available habitat for large-bodied, cool-water species with equilibrium life-histories, many of which also are of importance to recreational fishing (e.g., northern pike, smallmouth bass). By contrast, available habitat for warm-water, benthic species with more periodic or opportunistic life-histories (e.g., northern hogsucker, greater redhorse, greenside darter) was predicted to increase. Further, ACP implementation was projected to hasten these shifts, suggesting that efforts to improve water quality could come with costs to other ecosystem services (e.g., recreational fishing opportunities). Collectively, our findings demonstrate the need to consider biological outcomes when developing strategies to mitigate water quality impairment and highlight the value of physical-biological modeling approaches to agricultural and biological conservation planning in a changing climate.

Eye in the Sky: Using UAV Imagery of Seasonal Riverine Canopy Growth to Model Water Temperature

Until recently, stream temperature processes controlled by aquatic macrophyte shading (i.e., the riverine canopy) was an unrecognized phenomenon. This study aims to address the question of the temporal and spatial scale of monitoring and modeling that is needed to accurately simulate canopy-controlled thermal processes. We do this by using unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) imagery to quantify the temporal and spatial variability of the riverine canopy and subsequently develop a relationship between its growth and time. Then we apply an existing hydrodynamic and water temperature model to test various time steps of canopy growth interpolation and explore the balance between monitoring and computational efficiencies versus model performance and utility for management decisions. The results show that riverine canopies modeled at a monthly timescale are sufficient to represent water temperature processes at a resolution necessary for reach-scale water management decisions, but not local-scale. As growth patterns were more frequently updated, negligible changes were produced by the model. Spatial configurations of the riverine canopy vary interannually; new data may need to be gathered for each growth season. However, the risks of inclement field conditions during the early growth period are a challenge for monitoring via UAVs at sites with access constraints.

Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change

Streams and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by permeable boundaries that are crossed by resource subsidies. Although the importance of these subsidies for riverine ecosystems is increasingly recognized, little is known about how they may be influenced by global environmental change. Drawing from available evidence, in this review we propose a conceptual framework to evaluate the effects of global change on the quality and spatiotemporal dynamics of stream-terrestrial subsidies. We illustrate how changes to hydrological and temperature regimes, atmospheric CO2 concentration, land use and the distribution of nonindigenous species can influence subsidy fluxes by affecting the biology and ecology of donor and recipient systems and the physical characteristics of stream-riparian boundaries. Climate-driven changes in the physiology and phenology of organisms with complex life cycles will influence their development time, body size and emergence patterns, with consequences for adjacent terrestrial consumers. Also, novel species interactions can modify subsidy dynamics via complex bottom-up and top-down effects. Given the seasonality and pulsed nature of subsidies, alterations of the temporal and spatial synchrony of resource availability to consumers across ecosystems are likely to result in ecological mismatches that can scale up from individual responses, to communities, to ecosystems. Similarly, altered hydrology, temperature, CO2 concentration and land use will modify the recruitment and quality of riparian vegetation, the timing of leaf abscission and the establishment of invasive riparian species. Along with morphological changes to stream-terrestrial boundaries, these will alter the use and fluxes of allochthonous subsidies associated with stream ecosystems. Future research should aim to understand how subsidy dynamics will be affected by key drivers of global change, including agricultural intensification, increasing water use and biotic homogenization. Our conceptual framework based on the match-mismatch between donor and recipient organisms may facilitate understanding of the multiple effects of global change and aid in the development of future research questions.